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Energy Independence: A myth or reality?

Clean environment and net zero carbon footprint are the end goal but the immediate need is energy independence.

BHPian ferrarirules recently shared this with other enthusiasts:

There is so much talk today about energy independence and specifically from India which is net importer of energy. So I thought why don't I bring fore the facts on how India is placed this respect. How is India or other countries dealing with it.

Energy dependence of India

Oil, gas and coal are the three key fuels of the world as of today. Except Coal, India doesn't have the other two in abundance to sustain its needs.

Crude Oil
Oil is primary driver of transportation and industry in India. We import the 87.7% of the crude that is needed to run the country. The import bill was $132 billion for the year 2023, thanks to favourable international rates. The net import was $108 billion. But the import quantity is increasing YoY. We are the world's third largest importer of crude oil.


Source - Hindu & PPAC

Country-wise Import Split - CIS (Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Russia) and Middle-East countries were almost equal suppliers of crude to India for the year 2023-24. So we have a dependency on a limited set of countries to provide us oil and global politics/wars do impact the supplies as well as the prices.


Source - Reuters

 

LNG
India uses gas for cooking, power generation, fertilizer production and industrial use. In last 25 years with the advent of CNG vehicles, we have started using it for transportation as well. We are world's 4th largest importer of gas. We imported 46% of the gas in FY24. The import value was $13.3 billion.



Source - PPAC

Country-wise Import Split - Majority of our gas is imported from Qatar, United States and UAE. These three countries account for almost 70-80% of the import. So we have a dependency on a limited set of countries to provide us gas and global politics/wars do impact the supplies as well as the prices.


Coal
Coal is primarily is used in power generation and heavy industries in India. India has world's third largest reserves of Coal (Anthracite and Bituminous). India has open import policy for coal which means an industry can import coal if it meets their quality requirements or price point. There are 15 imported coal power plants (privately owned) which are designed to run on imported coal only. The total consumption of coal for FY24 was 1258 MT and out of this import was 261 MT. Imports are 20% of the total consumption.

Country-wise Import Split - Almost 70% of the coal is imported from Australia or Indonesia. There is lesser geopolitical risk in coal as commodity as we have abundant reserves.

Source - Nitiayog Dashboard, Ministry of Coal

Challenges due to India's dependence on oil and gas
1. Country specific imports - With oil and gas being monopolized by OPEC, India is at the mercy of these countries for supply. Recently India was able to diversify supply due to Ukraine war but again country walks a tight rope on diplomatic relations to do all this.

2. Fuel pricing for end consumer is dependent on open market rates but the state run oil marketing companies try to regulate the prices so as to reduce price shocks for the end consumer. Govt tries to compensate OMC for the losses that occur due to price shocks. Examples - Ukraine war, Israel war, US sanctions on Iran, US sanctions on Venezuela.

3. The supply of oil and gas is dependent on global routes. Uncertainty of supply puts a lot of pressure on fuel prices in the country
Examples - Blockage of Suez canal, Ukraine War, Gulf war

4. Transportation of oil and gas - Oil or gas as commodity needs to travel to reach the end consumer. For fuel, Oil needs to travel to Indian port and then to refineries and from refineries it needs to go to distribution hubs to be sent to end consumer. For PNG/CNG, you can build pipelines and deliver it to door step or fuel stations. For LPG, you pick it from refineries and send it to bottling plants. All of this transportation itself needs fuel.


With the problem stated, is there a solution? A simple answer is "yes". There are multiple solutions and biggest solution of them is electrification. I will answer the How?
Electrification
1. Electricity can be generated from multiple sources - Thermal (Coal), Wind, Solar, Hydro. The interesting thing to note is that we are abundant in all these sources. I know thermal is not clean electricity but that not the thought here.
2. Electricity generation is something that can be democratized. An industry or commercial establishment can setup a solar power plant on their roof or a individual house owner can setup roof top solar. Residential Societies can setup roof top solar. I know Solar is only available in day time. Read on!!
3. Electricity can be transmitted over long distance and even exported/imported. Example - Asean Power Grid and India's wish to connect it - Link, India and Middle east undersea power cable - Link, Australia and Singapore undersea power cable - Link
4. Electricity can be stored. Solar is available for specific amount of time and post that one has to rely on other power sources. This is where BeSS can help to store electricity for off solar hours. BeSS can provide grid stability as well when combined with a substation. BeSS can replaced diesel generators which are used in industrial, commercial and residential establishments. Battery prices are falling making BeSS projects easier to implement - Link
5. Possibility of micro grids - With Solar and BeSS combined, there is possibility of setting up self sustaining villages. This was implemented in Modhera, Gujarat - Link, Maligaon in Odisha - Link
6. Electricity can be used for transport. Electric vehicles are the prime example. Railways is another big example.

Before people talk about power supply and lack of it. We have been improving in this space. We are not power surplus but we are close to break even

Source-Ministry of Power
Biomass

1. Biomass can be converted to make green hydrogen. Recently a project was awarded to Gensol which will convert 25 tons of biomass to 1 ton green hydrogen - Link. Before you start thinking here come hydrogen cars, Hydrogen is a big requirement for fertilizers, refining and many other industries. All these industries are being asked to move to green hydrogen.
2. Biomass can be converted to biogas for commercial kitchen use - Recently Maruti Suzuki installed a 0.2 ton per day biogas plant for use in plant's canteen and production process - Link

Ethanol

1. Ethanol blending with petrol- Government has slowly increasing ethanol blending in petrol - E10-E15. E20 is targeted for 2025. Ethanol is by product of sugar production so we don't need to import it. India is even testing flex fuel vehicles in conjunction with Toyota - Link. I know a lot of old vehicles are not compliant with E20 fuel and need E10 fuel. There is a thread to discuss this
Has any country achieved energy independence?Yes, it is Norway.

Let's see what Norway has achieved. Majority of Norway's power comes from hydropower and thermal power is 1.5 % of the total production for the year 2023.
This was not easy to achieve as they were largely dependent on hydropower, the power generation fluctuated based on rain. To address this, they deployed offshore wind plants. Today, wind caters for 10% of their power generation.
The outcome of all this, biggest requirement of fossil fuels in a country like Norway is heating of homes. The homes in Norway are not heated by gas, they banned fossil fuel based heating in 2017. They achieved non fossil fuel heating - Link
After achieving nearly 100% green grid, there was a big news a few days back was that Norway achieved 94% EVs in their new car sales.- Link to the article.Today Norway exports most of their gas and oil production. They are now looking at ways of converting new truck sales to electric as well.

Summary:
I know all of this is easier said than done. I will summarize with following points:

1. Energy security and independence is key for the long term goal of developed India.
2. We have never been the energy providers of the world. We have an opportunity to become one if we invest and promote renewables and battery manufacturing.
3. Clean environment and net zero carbon footprint are the end goal but the immediate need is energy independence.
4. Every approach has challenges and pitfalls but one needs to start somewhere
5. I know batteries are supplied by China but batteries are recyclable commodity. Hence lesser impact of the import than oil and gas. Also for 60 KW lithium battery - 6 kg lithium is needed. Rest are material which we have available
6. As citizens, we must contribute to this goal by adopting measures like rooftop solar in our homes and businesses. Use electric cooktops with rooftop solar. Societies can also promote solar implementation in their parking spaces or roof top

Please note: This is a not political discussion on govt policy. There are other dedicated thread for govt policy related to EV

Disclaimer: These view are my personal opinion and I am not affiliated to any govt or non govt organization.

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