[PatienceWins]

Originally Posted by Linuskm

BTW how accurate is the debt information available in public website like Moneycontrol, economic times for these companies ? Is there alternate place to get timely and accurate information ?

What I meant is that debt should be the most important parameter while investing in good companies based on financial statement analysis. Negligible or zero Debt/ Equity Ratio is the most important filter I use to narrow down my list of companies for analysis. There are various styles of investing based on risk appetite, to each his own.

I normally use Screener.com for company data.

[saket77]

Investing is a mix of analysis and art. A particular ratio in isolation may not mean much- at least not enough to take a decision. Most ratios, just like the one bein spoken about ' debt to equity ratio' and others will differ industry wise as per business models, capital requirements, etc. Fundamental analysis, apart from reading various ratios will also involve many other judgmental and non-judgmental aspects. For eg. looking at the orderbook, getting into future estimates, top down analysis of the sector/ economy etc.

In short, ratio analysis can be a useful tool but is simply not enough to take investing decisions. Qualitative factors do not reflect in ratios which is integral to fundamental analysis. Investing is beyond just numbers in the financial statements- so I called it an art.

[Pancham]

Guys, any idea what is up with Tata Elxsi? Of course it was overpriced few months ago but the fundamentals (AFS numbers - PB ratio and all are high though) look fine to me but the market is dismissing the stock as junk it seems.

[AROO7]

I concur with what @SmartCat has said and would like to add what I have been following as an investor over the year. But before that a bit about myself, I started investing when I was in class 12th and right now I am in my late 20s (complete both my UG and PG ready to enter corporate life again).

Coming to the topic-
One needs to understand that everyone makes mistake even Warren Buffet ended up buying PayTM and

"incurring a loss of approximately ₹507 crore (around $600 million) after initially investing ₹2,200 crore in 2018."

The best hedge for this is to have a portfolio which have a few rockstars (stocks or funds with unimaginable profits) that will allow you to not be in pressure of selling under-performing stock before it has gone through a couple of market cycles. During my investment journey I have been through one boom and bust cycle (read Covid) and trust me, this is the time for which you have to wait and have those rockstars (based on my readings and research, I have observed this being a common thread among successful investors. They have been through multiple booms and busts cycles, where they have bought bluechip stocks at a bargain and build such massive portfolios).

TLDR- Avoid booking losses and if you have to then carry forward it to adjust against future gains.

Disclaimer- This is not a stock buying, trading or recommendation advice, it is my personal opinion. Take or use it at your own risk.

[DCEite]

My 2 cents on the volatility and investment strategy for this time:


1. Hold some quality stocks in your portfolio that you can "buy and forget" , if your investment horizon is >=10 years.

Large caps like L&T, ICICI Bank are the kind of evergreen large cap stocks that can be used as a hedge against volatility in the long term. These two stocks are not any recommendation but examples of quality large cap companies with solid foundations.

2. Although i am against sectoral and thematic stocks or funds, but seeing the current situation where the healthcare requirements are sky rocketing across the globe (not only India), and the recent US tariff exemption for Pharma co.s, I personally am overweight and bullish on this sector for the next 5-6 years atleast.

3. Mid cap and small cap space must be tread with caution. Again, try to pick quality and proven companies with reasonable evaluations. Best is to go with a Mutual fund with good track record.

[HRT_FPV]

Originally Posted by DigitalOne

I disagree with this . This kind of behaviour, which is very common among investors (including myself), is called "Loss Aversion". People avoid taking decisions which concretises losses, since there is a remorse or a pain that we feel. This leads to suboptimal returns.



Source: Investopedia

Loss aversion doesn’t apply in this scenario since the OP wants to sell only because of the drop in stock price.

Unless one’s rebalancing/cleaning/consolidating, etc. of the portfolio, I don’t reckon it’s wise to sell a solid stock.

[ais]

Originally Posted by SmartCat

I'm a "never book losses" investor myself and recommend the same to investors, with a few caveats. Because.

I made this mistake and did not sell my holding once it was clear the FII were exiting. So I eroded all my profits during tax harvesting. If I had exited then, I would have twice the profits and no loss to harvest!

The technical charts tell us when to exit. Presently I'm practicing Intraday trading to know when to exit or enter.

[SmartCat]

Originally Posted by ais

The technical charts tell us when to exit. Presently I'm practicing Intraday trading to know when to exit or enter.

We actually have a separate thread on technical analysis, FNO and intraday trading.
https://www.team-bhp.com/forum/shift...ns-thread.html (The Technical Analysis, Futures & Options Thread)

Not much activity though!

[Capri89]

Euro imposes 28 billion as tariffs on US products.

I expect deep gap down opening in indices today.
Wouldn't rule out a brief closure of the market as well due to circuit breakers getting triggered.

Let us wait and watch.

[Ananthang]

Originally Posted by Capri89

Euro imposes 28 billion as tariffs on US products.

I expect deep gap down opening in indices today.
Wouldn't rule out a brief closure of the market as well due to circuit breakers getting triggered.

Let us wait and watch.

Spot on sir. I guess US markets will also crash when it opens and subsequently we will have another bad day tomorrow and a month to 3 months for phase 1 recovery

[SnS_12]

Mr Trump definitely plays the Stock Market and how..





Mr. Xi is definitely not going to be a happy man and that fake news of a 90 day pause was not actually fake news afterall.. Retailers will continue to stay poor as always with all this manipulation

[SmartCat]

Since we might be looking at an unfolding bear market, investors can eyeball an unique lesser known metric called VIX. If you go to www.cnbc.com, you will see the levels of all 4 major US indices along with this "VIX".



VIX is called the FEAR INDEX and is currently at 44 right now. You can Google "S&P 500 VIX" for technical details. But how to read it? 44 VIX translates to S&P500 having a high probability of going down upto 44% from here, over the next 12 months. Although this is just theoretical (based on probability and statistics), we can say higher the VIX, higher is the downside risk.

Some pointers:

- VIX goes above 30 levels very rarely (1987, 2000, 2008, 2020 etc). It means something is not right with US/world economy or the stock market.
- You can detect "false" upmoves in a correction/bear market. For eg, despite 10% upmove in SPX a couple of days back, VIX was still at elevated levels (implying it is not over yet)
- VIX sliding down below 20 levels (from much higher levels) typically means the correction/bear market is over! In the current scenario, it might happen if Trump gives up on stupid-level tariffs (incl on China)
- Long term average of VIX is 15. What it actually means S&P500 has high probability of moving up or down 15% in a year

Remember that VIX cannot predict the markets. It is more like a thermometer which tells you if there is no fever, mild fever or high fever. However, one can still incorporate VIX into investment strategy.

- If VIX is below 20, all is well. You can invest in all type of stocks (largecap, midcaps, smallcap) or countries (Developed economies and emerging economies)
- If VIX is between 20 and 30, do not invest in smallcap stocks (or lesser known emerging markets)
- If VIX is between 30 and 60, avoid investing in small & midcaps. International investors should stick to S&P500 or home market index.
- If VIX > 60, best to watch from sidelines. Index can fall 10 or 20% in a day.

If we look at the long term chart of VIX, we can see the "level of fear" during each of the past bear markets. VIX falling to normal levels in 1992/2003/2009/2021 implies end of bear market/correction



And finally, every major index has its own "VIX". For eg, to find the VIX of NIFTY, just type 'India VIX' in Google or your broker watchlist:



India VIX at just 20 implies traders do not see as much risk in NIFTY falling, compared to S&P500. So perhaps traders feel Indian companies and economy might be at an advantage because of the tariffs (which are mostly at the expense of China right now, who is the biggest competitor of Indian exports). However, do remember that India Vix changes every second just like NIFTY. If there is more global negative news, India Vix too might spike up (indicating increasing likelihood of bear market)

[SmartCat]

Had a stock market mini-meet with a few TeamBHP-ians in Mangalore:



From left to right:

Srisri_90 / Srinidhi
Samaspire / Samarth
SmartCat / Ashwin
Deetee / Dharma
Tirugata / Kiran (Host)
iAshishi / Ashish

But no heavy stocks/market discussions though - we just spent time mocking eachother's investment and trading decisions. We were also wondering if Trump actually has a plan or he is just winging it and improvising everyday.

[whitewing]

Originally Posted by Pancham

Guys, any idea what is up with Tata Elxsi? Of course it was overpriced few months ago but the fundamentals (AFS numbers - PB ratio and all are high though) look fine to me but the market is dismissing the stock as junk it seems.

Not following this stock nor invested in it.
I heard of a slow down in projects from an ex employee.
This I assume it is because a large portion of their business comes from the transportation sector & euro/us market based (the big Germans are in trouble). Expect the ratios also to deteriorate over the coming quarters.

[Faf]

Hi All,

What are some good YouTube channels, books or any online sources that teach technical analysis and trading strategies in simple/easy to understand way? Suggestions are welcome, preferably which you have used personally to learn. Thanks!