[Nonstop-driver]

Originally Posted by Saanil

I would say avoid the Auto sector completely. Valuations are very high, all the positive expectations are already priced in and the margin of safety for investing in them is less.

I'm surprised a lot of people here feel this.

Take Maruti for example. It has 55% market share, probably highest ever in the last few years. They are belting one hit after other. Baleno, Ciaz, Brezza.. Nexa has taken off better than any of us would've imagined. For 2017, they have RS, new Dzire, new Swift lined up, which will add to the numbers.

Maruti has a hold on the pulse of the market and their competitors are nowhere near that. Tata, Ford are struggling on their own. New City can't beat Ciaz numbers. Hyundai's number muncher, Creta, is not even a competition for MSL.

And now with Ciaz and Dzire, they've ventured into accessories segment which is a high margin segment.

Looking at that, what makes an investor believe that Maruti will struggle to justify the valuations it's getting?
One thing that comes to mind is hybrid technology where Maruti hasn't covered much ground yet, but I think that's still a few years away. Before that Maruti can exploit the turbo-charged petrol engine market.

[hserus]

Originally Posted by Nonstop-driver

Curious, the price of the stock shouldn't matter since the return in percentage terms will be the same, no? .

True, the price range I mentioned is simply what I can afford to buy on a continuous buy the dip basis

[Saanil]

Originally Posted by Nonstop-driver

I'm surprised a lot of people here feel this.

Take Maruti for example.

The point I am trying to make is: Maruti is a phenomenal company but not a good investment at this point of time. The positives you have mentioned here - don't you think that the people who are buying the stock know them already. All I am saying is that Maruti might increase a further 100% from these levels - but I think the downside risks are more prominent that upside risks. Please note that this is purely my opinion and I may be wrong (like I have been many times in the past).

[shetty_rohan]

Originally Posted by Saanil

My opinion - avoid putting more money into stock market. Keep on accumulating money. Wait for a correction - I have been waiting for 2 years now

I am also in the same boat, and expecting markets to crash. Stock market seem to become overwhelmed with the greed.
Reasons:
- Most of the stocks have hit all time high(except Pharma and IT).
- New IPOs are becoming multibaggers(just check the performance of IPOs which launched during last one year).
- Look at the subscription levels of IPOs(more than 100 times over subscription)

But, you never know, Sensex might even cross 40,000 in couple of months, and prove us wrong. I was expecting a big crash during Trump victory, and I was wrong(market went down just for a day).

Unfortunately, 7 years back I had to sell all my stocks to buy an apartment. So could not participate in the last bull run. I always believed in "buying low and selling high".
Recently, I have got some cash(after selling a property), and need to park this money for couple of months(with the expectation that markets would crash soon). I was looking at "Short term Debt funds(particularly GILT)" like "BNP Paribas Government Securities Fund - Direct Plan" which almost have 15% annual return(way better than 6% on FDs).

Question to Experts(leave out the tax implications, equity, equity mutual funds):
- What is best place(maximum returns with moderate risk and quick liquidity) to park money for the short term?
- I understand that GILT debt funds are the safest investment(next best to FD). Is this understanding right?
- Can you please suggest a "short term GILT debt fund"?

Regards,
Rohan

[ECM]

Originally Posted by shetty_rohan

I am also in the same boat, and expecting markets to crash. Stock market seem to become overwhelmed with the greed.
Reasons:
- Most of the stocks have hit all time high(except Pharma and IT).
- New IPOs are becoming multibaggers(just check the performance of IPOs which launched during last one year).
- Look at the subscription levels of IPOs(more than 100 times over subscription)

But, you never know, Sensex might even cross 40,000 in couple of months, and prove us wrong. I was expecting a big crash during Trump victory, and I was wrong(market went down just for a day).

Unfortunately, 7 years back I had to sell all my stocks to buy an apartment. So could not participate in the last bull run. I always believed in "buying low and selling high".
Recently, I have got some cash(after selling a property), and need to park this money for couple of months(with the expectation that markets would crash soon). I was looking at "Short term Debt funds(particularly GILT)" like "BNP Paribas Government Securities Fund - Direct Plan" which almost have 15% annual return(way better than 6% on FDs).

Question to Experts(leave out the tax implications, equity, equity mutual funds):
- What is best place(maximum returns with moderate risk and quick liquidity) to park money for the short term?
- I understand that GILT debt funds are the safest investment(next best to FD). Is this understanding right?
- Can you please suggest a "short term GILT debt fund"?

Regards,
Rohan

Buy physical Gold and forget for min 3 years. I underline,never follow crowd and what you see rt now in stocks price is filled with all reasons- do NOT try to find a new reason to jump in as all are discounted already and IN THE PRICE.

[SmartCat]

Despite large price appreciation of Eicher Motors & Maruti, the BSE Auto index (black line) has underperformed BSE Sensex (grey line) by a huge margin. Ignore the red line (ashok leyland) in the image below -

[schakra]

Is Reliance communication a good buy, it is at 52 week low. I am aware that they have a lot of debt, but from a long term perspective of 2 to 3 years, would the experts recommend it. I feel that they may merge or get acquired if their performance doesn't improve and then the stock price may go up.

[DieselFan]

Originally Posted by schakra

Is Reliance communication a good buy, it is at 52 week low. I am aware that they have a lot of debt, but from a long term perspective of 2 to 3 years, would the experts recommend it. I feel that they may merge or get acquired if their performance doesn't improve and then the stock price may go up.

Reliance communication is in huge debt and is asking bail out from the government (As per today's news). Just like KF airlines. Not a good buy. Telecom sector itself will undergo a huge price war hence not a good buy for next 2 years.

[schakra]

Originally Posted by DieselFan

Reliance communication is in huge debt and is asking bail out from the government (As per today's news). Just like KF airlines. Not a good buy. Telecom sector itself will undergo a huge price war hence not a good buy for next 2 years.

Thank you, DieselFan. I am a newbie to stock, you inputs are definitely very helpful

[ECM]

Originally Posted by schakra

Is Reliance communication a good buy, it is at 52 week low. I am aware that they have a lot of debt, but from a long term perspective of 2 to 3 years, would the experts recommend it. I feel that they may merge or get acquired if their performance doesn't improve and then the stock price may go up.

Pick a sector which has margins and as you know in telecom there are freebies nowadays,dhanadhan offers plus fundas of this stock is worse, avoid completely or try to catch it near 5 so your risk will be limited!

[Foxbat]

Originally Posted by schakra

Is Reliance communication a good buy, it is at 52 week low. I am aware that they have a lot of debt, but from a long term perspective of 2 to 3 years, would the experts recommend it. I feel that they may merge or get acquired if their performance doesn't improve and then the stock price may go up.

Please don't waste your money on this stock. It keeps on hitting a fresh low every few weeks. I made a mistake buying it one of its 52 week lows and lost a lot of money.

[ventoman]

Originally Posted by Foxbat

Please don't waste your money on this stock. It keeps on hitting a fresh low every few weeks. I made a mistake buying it one of its 52 week lows and lost a lot of money.

Yep, same here and fed up of hedging on newer lows. Have decided to write off the money instead.

[bluevolt]

I am planning to buy some HUDCO shares this month with short term investment plan. Thinking of selling around Diwali.

From current range of 72-75/share, what increase can we expect for HUDCO share?

Also please recommend some good shares for mid and long term investments.

I am new to stock markets and recently bought few ONGC shares for learning purpose. I am tracking the market and trying to understand the fundamentals!

[maddy42]

Originally Posted by shetty_rohan

Recently, I have got some cash(after selling a property), and need to park this money for couple of months(with the expectation that markets would crash soon). I was looking at "Short term Debt funds(particularly GILT)" like "BNP Paribas Government Securities Fund - Direct Plan" which almost have 15% annual return(way better than 6% on FDs).

Question to Experts(leave out the tax implications, equity, equity mutual funds):

- Can you please suggest a "short term GILT debt fund"?

Regards,
Rohan

I have a couple of questions for any bhpian to take a crack at it.

How can i invest in the debt fund or govt bond programs? Is there a lock in period for these?
Can i use icici or hdfc share trading portal to look for mutual funds too?

Newbie to the field and dont want to get my hands burnt the second time. I think markets are going without any sane notion to it these days. Dont wanna be holding the bill when the party ends.

Maddy

[SmartCat]

Originally Posted by maddy42

I have a couple of questions for any bhpian to take a crack at it. How can i invest in the debt fund or govt bond programs? Is there a lock in period for these? Can i use icici or hdfc share trading portal to look for mutual funds too?

1) Yes, you can invest in debt/govt bond mutual funds via icicidirect.com. Not sure about HDFC trading platform.

2) No lock in period, but if you sell within 1 year, you will lose 2%. This is called 'exit load'. To get tax benefits, you have to hold for at least 3 years.

Check this link and invest in 4 and 5 star rated bond/income funds
https://www.valueresearchonline.com/...&cat=4&x=8&y=2

But remember that this is not simple like a fixed deposit. You can earn anywhere between -5 to 20% per year in "income fund". Do a Google search on how bond funds work. Basically, if interest rates rise, your lose money. If interest rates fall, your NAV shoots up.

But over a long term (say 3 or 5 years), you will earn 2% over a bank fixed deposit. On an average, income/corporate bond/govt bond funds have given 10% per annum.