[extreme_torque]

Originally Posted by Sk8r

Another informative video on this topic. May not be as interesting as conspiracy theories out here , but this guy ( Akshat ) is usually solid
https://Youtu.be/LLljt2SUqtQ

Excellent video explainer. You can almost feel how carefully he is choosing his words (fearing potential of a repercussion is my theory). I hope Adani is preparing a response for the sake of retail investors and LIC which has life savings of people invested in it. Things do not look good however.

[RoadTiger]

Originally Posted by GutsyGibbon

If I understand your post correctly - That is quite some conspiracy theory here to stretch it and insinuate that US govt is taking a hit at India/Adani through Hindenburg for India's stand on Ukraine. The credit rating and outlook about Adani from Fitch came out last year in Feb 22. The video from the print (Shekar Gupta) that was posted here by user deetee is from 5 months back. Their research probably goes a few weeks further behind. It says some of the same things in this report. Nobody has control over when things snowball, and people take notice. I am not buying the timing logic completely.

I am suggesting various possibilities, period. Shekhar Gupta's video also highlights that the Fitch report came out about 12 hours before the NDTV acquisition. Coincidence for reports to be timed to perfection, twice.

The research can take weeks or months just as I am sure the BBC doc wasnt produced overnight. However, the decision to release it (or not) and the timing of it always has some senior mgmt approvals esp in high profile instances. That's the logic. Whether that was motivated or not is a matter of speculation.

I can point to dozens and dozens of Indian (and global) companies that have questionable business practices or are too aggressive in pursuing growth and I would absolutely include Adani as part of them. That's not the question here. The timing and the titling of the report as the 'largest con in corporate history blah blah' is certainly very questionable

[VKumar]

Adani has become too big to fail, so the government won't let them fail in any condition, no matter what their wrongdoings are, if any.

That said, this tweet kind of perfectly describes that why Adani will still stand tall:

Originally Posted by V.Narayan

Adani Group will become a few ounces more careful with their brazenness and Hindenburg will seek its next target. Don't expect anything dramatic.

Very true, and there won't be a legal battle either, because going to the court means presenting the papers!

[Pennant1970]

Originally Posted by extreme_torque

Where is our financial media? It was a rhetorical question, we already know why.

I was going to keep quiet on this thread because we are precariously balancing on the tightrope of politics here. However, your "rhetorical question" made me chuckle because I was just at that moment thinking of a media firm that was gobbled up last month. They were the last independent voice in the field. As you said, "we all know why" that came to pass. Cry, the beloved country.

[PearlJam]

Originally Posted by SmartCat

However, Adani Ports (Mundra port) and Adani Wilmar (Fortune cooking oil) are an exception, and seem to be proper/legit businesses with good financials (low debt) & reasonable valuation/marketcap (relatively speaking). Having said that, I hope I won't have to eat my words a few years down the line

Add Ambuja cements too to that list. While I don't think that these could be called as reasonable valuations (yet), especially Adani Wilmar, this
situation may be a golden opportunity for genuine investors to pick up legitimate businesses/stocks at good prices. But we all know how stock markets have the uncanny knack of teaching life lessons and putting people in their place

[autobahnjpr]

Interesting ! Wonder where were these so called research analysts during Enron, Lehman Brother's, 2008 fiasco and the recent FTX exchange meltdown. If you look closely, no country has swindled investors and people out of their money like greedy institutions in the West, time and again. People have lost their entire pension money and nothing has been done.

So, lets not take things at face value and with a heavy pinch of salt. Unfortunately, our influence is not much in the western media and thus we are forced out this treatment. Maybe GA should now train his sights on that front.

[GTO]

Mod Note: Strictly no discussion on politics or politicians please. If any member violates this forum rule, his / her access to this thread will be blocked.

Thanks for the support & understanding

[RoadTiger]

Originally Posted by VKumar

That said, this tweet kind of perfectly describes that why Adani will still stand tall:

Attachment 2410825

Mods : completely non-political, only financial

Problem is today anyone can tweet and make youtube videos on any topic - irrespective of their area of expertise - and there are enough and more people who will lap it up because they 'follow/ trust' the individual

Two points to make :
1. The too-big-to-fail theory only applies to a very large & systemically important financial institution where the collapse of one entity can cause a contagion effect on the financial sector due to the inter-connectedness. Also, where depositor money is involved (e.g.banks). Govts want to protect depositor money to the extent possible - not investor money. This theory DOES NOT apply to non-financial institutions where every year tons of companies (power, infra, mfg businesses etc) fail at their business and go bankrupt/ into bankruptcy proceedings.

2. If the whole idea is that for companies where promoters hold nearly 75% and big institutions hold a part of the remaining, that stock prices can only move up - then theoritically every company with these characteristics should only move up because there are (theoritically) no sellers. That's not how markets work. For every buyer, there is a seller - and the price at which the seller is willing to sell and a buyer exists to buy is the key. Yes, lower float (shares to trade) makes it easier to drive prices up (or down) with lesser capital.

[nairanupg]

Cursory reading of what has been claimed.
Fraud or what ever seems a little preposterous at this stage...Not counting it off completely though, knowing that honest money, growing at this rate is not always possible.
Routing funds and using shell companies in Tax Havens, Nominee Directors etc etc etc has been an accepted practice, which is completely legal since ages and actively promoted by the governments to get in more foreign investments.
The only alarm for me in the report is the Adani's actually jacking up share prices artificially (so claimed) to raise more debts. The legality of these actions are suspect for sure and has to be probed in light of governance standards.

Yes I am guilty of making money of the Adani shares too and am honestly of the opinion that the Adani's have reached a scale now where-in they are vital for the nations economy, irrespective of what these well researched reports claim. So if we are waiting for a supposed house of cards to come crashing down, then I dare say the wait is gonna be a bit too long

[NetfreakBombay]

Originally Posted by autobahnjpr

where were these so called research analysts during Enron, Lehman Brother's, 2008 fiasco and the recent FTX exchange meltdown.

In all these case, Research had been in public domain. I.e. Research that unambiguously highlighted issues. E.g.: Interaction with a Research analyst and Enron CEO :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x2K7luvpKCI

If you have access to Financial Research; search for stagflation (time period : 2006). Analysts had provided specific examples where MBS just did not make sense.

[TallBoy]

My two cents on this:
1. While there were whispers and murmurs about the meteoric rise, allegations of malfeasance etc., the level of detail that the Hindenberg report carries is just too much to turn a blind eye to. Allowing Indian funds abroad to come in as FPI is one thing but allowing funds to go from here and then come back here as FPI is certainly not done

2. The report also points out how KP is still active (from London) and how the Adani group is connected to fugitive diamond merchants with some of the family being accused in the same diamond rackets earlier

3. Growth businesses in the consumer sector can to some extent substantiate stratospheric valuations (with rising cost of carry, even those are not accepted anymore). To justify such numbers in the infra sector is probably a first! The report also establishes how a large amount of stock trading was insider trading just to pump up valuations. Again, a big No if done by anyone else

4. Taken together, all these would make the amounts involved in the recent high profile bank boss arrest seem like chump change. Will GA be thrown to the wolves (a piece a day, over time) just to prove that a New India is emerging? I wont be surprised if that happens.

5. As to potential impact on the stock markets, some seem to be under the impression that the closely held nature of this group's stocks would make any downside limited. Have to be mindful of the fact that ACC and Ambuja have large FII plus public shareholding and selling pressure there can potentially trigger a domino, invoking pledges. As it is, most are now hitting lower circuits pointing to growing selling pressure and mopping up won't be easy, even for a KP!

[deetee]

Adani Enterprises hit 2nd lower circuit during trading session today, wiping off almost 15% value from previous close. Apparently, investors are not happy with Adani's response .

[rrsteer]

This research doesn't really shed any new light from my point of view, apart from throwing light on some specifics. People interested in stock markets always knew Adani companies were 'different' - most expensive nifty stock, only LIC investing, shady auditing, debts at own terms from PSU etc.

My personal view is governments need corporates (or the corporate system) to transition levels of development. E.g. the case of Korean Chaebols, the mighty Chinese firms in the past few decades. In the present case, my assumption is that the decision makers have leveraged/ are leveraging the corporate system through Adani etc. to build infrastructure in India or secure other gains (not personal). Given my assumption, I am ambivalent to whatever the report has pointed to. This has happened/ is happening in all countries.
But - world's largest con? - thats just a headline grabbing statement.

[Holyghost]

Originally Posted by deetee

Adani Enterprises hit 2nd lower circuit during trading session today, wiping off almost 15% value from previous close. Apparently, investors are not happy with Adani's response .

Newbie Q: Why is Adani Power and Wilmar stuck at 5% lower circuit and not moving? While other Other Adani, ACC etc are at 20% lower circuit

[SmartCat]

Originally Posted by Holyghost

Newbie Q: Why is Adani Power and Wilmar stuck at 5% lower circuit and not moving? While other Other Adani, ACC etc are at 20% lower circuit

Different stocks (usually based on marketcap) have different circuit levels.

But stocks in derivatives segment have no circuit limit for the day. However, once they fall a certain level (15% or 20%), trading is stopped for 15 mins and then resumed again.