[GutsyGibbon]

Originally Posted by NH08

In all this chaos, got my hands on Adani Ports at 400 today, the only company in Adani stable with a decent PE ratio. Now, keeping a watch on Adani Wilmar and Power. Hope these also become attractive enough.

How is it that retail investors have so much confidence in an Adani corporate entity? They are so opaque. https://www.adaniports.com/About-us

Just 2 executives listed for a company with market cap of 100B. Chairman and CEO - father-son duo. No CFO, HR, legal, planning - nothing. The board members are Independent and non executives, no roles that affect execution. One of them has not even supplied them with his picture. This model is perfectly fine for a private company. But, I am not sure how a retail investor can invest in such a company with this much opacity. It is a leap of faith, and I wish you the best.

[alphamike_1612]

Originally Posted by Torq

But is he a catalyst for some advanced geo-politico-economic war? Is India being targeted indirectly for siding with Russia, or rather not taking a firm stand against Russia in the R-U war? Simply bringing down Adani empire will trigger a massive sell-off at a lot of other indirectly related financial institutions too.

If this is the intent, to my eyes, it doesn't seem to be working. Sensex has been closing in Green consistently, NIFTY closed in red because of the presence of Adani Enterprises and today when there was a bounceback, NIFTY too closed in green today.

Other sectors dont appear to be affected much, other than those due to the budget (such as Insurance Companies).

Moreover, all banks have declared that they have limited exposure to Adani, of course more is to be seen as SEBI gets the nitty gritty details.
Until this point, there doesn't appear to be a massive sell off in any institution other than Adani.

Andrew Korybko, a Moscow-based political analyst believes the BBC documentary is part of efforts to pressure Modi.

At the risk of going off topic and involving politics, I don't think this is the case, since there appears to be a massive outpouring of support internationally (read the UK and the US) against the said documentary and several of these countries are very much against Russia in the Russia Ukraine conflict.

[volkman10]

S&P Global Ratings (@SPGlobalRatings) revises outlook on Adani Ports & Adani Electricity to negative.

[inwester]

Originally Posted by Shreyans_Jain

The amount of bad loans that the government has already written off over the past 5-6 years is astounding. It is more than 11 lakh crores. All this has happened silently and stealthy, without any noise being made in the media. Ultimately, it’s the taxpayer, you and me, who is bankrolling all this.

To put things into prospective, INS Vikrant cost us 23000crores. The entire Rafale deal cost us 59k crores. Our entire defence budget for a year is a little more than 5lakh crores. This is 11 lakh crores that we have simply written off.

https://wap.business-standard.com/ar...2000581_1.html

I know you put things into perspective by giving the size and comparing to the defense budget. I thought it would also be helpful to give some historical data as a context.

During the previous 10 years (2004-2014), the total loans written off was Rs 2,20,330 crore.

We've managed to write off 5 times the amount in half the time.

Worse, many of these bank defaulters are absconding since years and the government has also admitted that it has caught only two of the 72 fugitives in the past five years.

[warrioraks]

Originally Posted by GutsyGibbon

How is it that retail investors have so much confidence in an Adani corporate entity? They are so opaque. https://www.adaniports.com/About-us

Bang-on. A PE ratio is derived from profit numbers disclosed by the company. In this case, the management itself is getting accused of accounting fraud and lack of proper audit controls on reporting. So any financial number coming from the company needs to be taken with a pinch of salt.

[Linuskm]

Originally Posted by inwester

Worse, many of these bank defaulters are absconding since years and the government has also admitted that it has caught only two of the 72 fugitives in the past five years.

How many of these bank officials who were either incompetent or corrupt were put behind bars ? System has failed to do proper due diligence when it comes to handing loans to these big people, if a common man has to take a home loans there are multiple checks and balances to do proper due diligence.

Surprisingly rating agencies have woken up now and downgraded the ratings of these companies, what were they doing earlier that they failed to see these warnings.

I have read that Adani has taken loans keeping the inflated stocks as collateral, did the banks bother to check what were the volumes traded at what price levels to figure out if the stock prices were manipulated.

[Linuskm]

Originally Posted by volkman10

S&P Global Ratings (@SPGlobalRatings) revises outlook on Adani Ports & Adani Electricity to negative.

Attachment 2414554

Finally they have woken up now just like they did back in 2008

[Tucker48]

The doors are shut for a neutral India from cheap global finance. Higher interest rates will make some projects unviable and some with delays. Indian banks won't lend anymore to Adani group and other Indian companies don't have the ability to raise overseas debt. Even if some companies may have the ability to raise debt but they don't want to invest in risky businesses (Electricity Transmission as one example). We will see that effect in a year or two. Expect GDP figures to be on lower side for next 1-2 years.

NEUTRAL INDIA is subject of concern for west as not only it benefits India but also encourages other countries to adopt the same strategy. Saudi Arabia is one such example. The other major concern is alternative currency to dollar. Brics is in news for the same.

BBC documentary on Modi after 20 years have passed.
Adani hindenburg saga. (How the story was picked up by media and created a storm. A short seller isn't capable of doing it alone)
Ukraine demanding sanctions on India.

I expect more pressure on India until India stops importing Russian Oil as sanctions might backfire.

India is importing oil at heavily discounted prices, although that is not reflected in retail prices, but cheap energy is a must for a country to become developed. Germany is an example. Without cheap Russian energy, it wouldn't have become an industrial powerhouse.

We will like the whole world to think that we are competing with China but the truth is we are competing with the whole world.

Yesterday, USA jobs data came in stronger than expected. Now, it's going to effect the whole world for some time. How is that fair for us or for any other country? Can hidenburg short USA for its unfair dollar practices and ask why they printed so many trillions. Then why is he asking questions when some of that money went as debt to Adani group. Probably, as the USA is taking some of those dollars back, Adani is not giving them!

I used the word cheap money in the first line. There's another major problem in India with that.
GOI gets cheap money from overseas and invests some of it in areas which are directly competitive to private industries or the govt subsidizes it's owned companies which compete with the private ones.

I remember in 2001-02, there was an article in Times of India about how Indians lack leadership qualities and I was confused, because even though I was in School, but I observed immense competition for leadership in School or otherwise in all age groups.

Bottom line, world is not a fair place, and everyone is biased.

[jaaz]

Originally Posted by inwester

I know you put things into perspective by giving the size and comparing to the defense budget. I thought it would also be helpful to give some historical data as a context.

During the previous 10 years (2004-2014), the total loans written off was Rs 2,20,330 crore.

The above amount might've been written off in just Adani Case. GOI doesn't reveal the names or figures of Top 50 or 100 defaulters, but the poor borrowers are named and shamed in News Papers and on Web.

The Current figure of written off loans has already crossed 13 lakh crores and it could be around 16 lakh crores at present.

Originally Posted by Tucker48

The doors are shut for a neutral India from cheap global finance.

Good analysis at a young age. Keep it up.

Indians do have Leadership qualities, but opportunities are not given in the name of Caste, creed, religion etc., Take the example of Top US Companies managed by Indians.

If there's a comment by a Person, the World looks at his knowledge, professionalism etc.,, but we see his background, caste, religion etc., India has come to this stage because of neutralism only. Compare our neighbours struggling. Country first should be the motto.

[dailydriver]

Here and elsewhere, I see a lot of motives ascribed to the intent and timing of the Hindenburg report. Also, there have been suggestions to the effect that country X or country Y has sponsored or backed the report and its release; just as they say was done in case of the BBC documentary.

Discussions on the latter aren't possible on the forum and hence shall remain untouched - both in terms of the content and the cabal behind it.

On the Adani mess, a lot of fellow members are making the cardinal mistake of not isolating the problem at hand and are bringing in social, political, geo-spacial and conspirational narratives.

There are, to my mind, only two facets to the case: commercial and criminal.

A firm in hunt for profits researches another apparently profitable one and after placing its bets where it should, lets the larger world know that it has found a sinkhole where a goldmine was thought to be existing.

Now, the question should be, only be, whether the allegations made are true or not. Most people, starting from market experts like SmartCat to relative nincompoops like me know/believe that daal me kuch kaala to hain. Stock market behavior too seems to have corroborated our views.

Should we look at this rather stark truth or indulge in obfuscation?

The crime is visible. Let us take note of that. The criminals seem to be around; let us try and bring them to book.

Let us not shoot the messenger. Let us not harp on why a crime was flagged and a criminal identified. Let us not err on the side of caution and allow the frauds to run the government or run away, as has happened quite often in the past. Let us not allow our tricolour to be draped over to mask a dark deed.

Though not a direct shareholder, I have some of my money invested in Adanis through LIC and SBI, both of whom, if I were to believe my esteemed minister of finance, are still holding profitable positions vis a vis the fallen angel.

I do not want my hard earned bucks to bid good bye to me anytime soon.

In that pursuit, I need justice to be served, pronto.

If, god willing, facts to the effect that no crime has been committed were to emerge, I would willingly eat my words.

[volkman10]

Adani group backs out yet again, this time from plans to raise up to Rs 1,000 cr via bonds!

Adain Enterprises has shelved a plan to raise as much as 10 billion rupees ($122 million) via its first-ever public sale of bonds following a market rout.

The flagship firm of Indian billionaire Gautam Adani’s empire had planned the public note issuance for January, working with Edelweiss Financial Services Ltd., AK Capital, JM Financial, and Trust Capital, Bloomberg had reported in December. But activity has now stopped.

The market rout will likely reduce the group’s ability to raise money for capital expenditure projects or to refinance debt over the next year or two.

Link

[deehunk]

Originally Posted by dailydriver

On the Adani mess, a lot of fellow members are making the cardinal mistake of not isolating the problem at hand and are bringing in social, political, geo-spacial and conspirational narratives.

If god willing, facts to the effect that no crime has been committed were to emerge, I would willingly eat my words.

I second your views, affinity to political parties is like expecting the fire not to burn anything, this is why political parties are united against publicizing the party fund contributions. If you have seen the highlights of the recent budget, our FM claims to have removed 39000 compliances for the ease of doing business, does it reduce corruption or segmentize cannot be explained in layman's language.

[xway]

There is something very fishy about Adani

From $2.7 Billion in 2013 to $136 Billion in 2022, till 2020 it was at $ 18.7 Billion,
so a rise of 20X in 2 years that too post covid is nothing but a miracle of unbelievable
proportions.

Unless you have a breakthrough product, disruptive technology the worth or wealth
is not possible to grow so fast so soon.

Also, note that Adani has dealt mostly from Government like ports, roads, mines,
power.

And none of these were anything pathbreaking in the first place.

Adani seems to be the face of something underlying and deeply rooted to the system.
He definitely cannot pull this all off single handedly.

I do not have any reason or answer on how something ordinary can grow 20x in 2 years and
I am sure neither Adani or Govt knows it either or wants anyone to know.

[V.Narayan]

Originally Posted by Shreyans_Jain

The amount of bad loans that the government has already written off over the past 5-6 years is astounding. It is more than 11 lakh crores. All this has happened silently and stealthy, without any noise being made in the media. Ultimately, it’s the taxpayer, you and me, who is bankrolling all this.

Originally Posted by inwester

I thought it would also be helpful to give some historical data as a context. During the previous 10 years (2004-2014), the total loans written off was Rs 2,20,330 crore.We've managed to write off 5 times the amount in half the time.

Off topic but please indulge me. On a thread like this one with charged emotions and virtue signalling and skirting the thin line towards politics we may want to quote data with the complete context otherwise it can mean the opposite of reality.

Bad loans or NPAs have been building up in books of banks in India since the loan mela culture started in the 1970s a few years after the nationalization of 1969. Everyone knew it but at least the PSU banks did not follow a practise of writing them off on regular intervals with a firm policy due to the very restrictive view of generations of bureaucrats, ministers and bank leaderships from c.1975 to c. 2012 who did not want to sully the track record of their tenures. It was only when Raghuram Rajan became the RBI Governor that he called out the truth of the emperor's clothes around 2014. Even then there was humming and hawing till the tenure of the next Governor Dr Urjit Patel and only from c.2016 did rigour start getting implemented on identifying, classifying and writing off bad debts.

That is why we see Rs 11.6 lakh crores getting written off in the last 5 to 7 years versus Rs 2.2 lakhs crores over the preceding ten years before that. Many of the loans being written off in the last 5 years would be one's disbursed over 2005 to 2017 or thereabouts. Bad loans haven't increased. It is the discipline of cleaning the books that has improved.

[hemj]

I don't want to take a position for or against Adani. As a normal tax paying citizen, I would like to know whether the allegations are true or not. That can only be achieved by an open and fair investigation. That is all I want.

If the allegations are false, and Adani built his empire by following the law of the land, I think it is something to be inspired by for the other businessmen, that such things are possible. This will also make our bureaucrats strengthen our financial system and prevent false allegations from burning a hole in common man's pocket.

If the allegations are true, even if only some of it, like the crime of decreasing free float, to inflate stock price and borrow against it, and the crime of theft of taxpayer funds, that is an unforgivable crime, because that is putting the money of common people at risk and taking money away from our hospital building budget, our schools, roads, and other basic services. No India loving person would be okay with this, no matter how much good name it brings the country, because that's stealing from the plates of the poor and putting it into their pocket.

I think the one thing all sides can agree on is that we need an investigation into this situation. It can achieve two things either way. One is to improve trust in our financial system and bring back the FIIs which we desperately need. Two, root out a corrupt businessman and prevent him from stealing taxpayer money or prove that such things don't happen since our regulators are competent.