[JithinR]

And so it begins:

https://youtu.be/Uyi68agaW5c

[joe1980]

Originally Posted by NiInJa

https://www.thehindu.com/news/intern...?homepage=true

Is this the beginning of the end?

I find Zelenskyy's statement: “I have cooled down regarding this question a long time ago after we understood that ... NATO is not prepared to accept Ukraine,” little intriguing. He is the leader of the country and should have known this much before February 24.

Absolutely, he should have realized it much earlier. I sincerely pity them for what happened so far. I hope that he maintains this rhetoric which should pave the way for much honest negotiations.

[Poitive]

Originally Posted by ABHI_1512

Firstly, Thank you for your posts in this thread. Secondly, the quoted part above just made me realise one funny part regarding Russia and the support it has garnered for the invasion, specially here in India.

You're welcome, mate. I do think Russia gaining support in India would have a Social Media component to it, however quite different from what I guess you are suggesting, Abhi. Going beyond what has already been stated a few times on the thread, am sharing some opinions:

IMO, people have consumed a lot of west-based media in the past few decades. Knowingly or unknowingly, many imbibed the west-dominated narrative and point of view. Social media, along with easy access to quality internet 24x7 has given people alternate ways to view the world. It has raised questions which would otherwise not come up. It has allowed people to do their own research. Or, in many cases, people have interacted with those who have spent time doing so. This thread itself has posts about how a certain view was held, and after going through the thread they have realigned their position. Overall, that has exposed the duplicity of the West in increasing numbers. Further, while most countries engage in duplicity, the case for the West becomes more stark, as it earlier has had this haloed position (and still does in many quarters), so the fall is a bigger one.

I think there is some latent angst which people have built up against the West, and it comes out at such times. The whole situation (the west being 'exposed' by social media+internet induced changes) also makes Russia look good, and one which seems more upright in comparison.

None of this can be proved, and are only my impressions as an observer.

Originally Posted by ABHI_1512

Lots has been said about how Russia has always supported India and that India is covertly supporting Russia by abstaining from UNSC votes and all and how India is dependent on Russia for arms and jets.

Those are emotional reasons. I realize as individuals - good emotional well-meaning individuals with morals - we tend to empathise and reciprocate based on those. Russia has 'helped' us in the past; but it goes beyond that. (It has potentially been nasty too, which has been mentioned earlier in the thread - IIRC one solitary post about that.)

Nations decisions in international politics are about harsh solid practicality, and not about emotions and help. The importance of emotions of individuals play a role in very practical ways:

• Emotions of individuals combine to build up the mood of a nation, which has practical implications. Eg: How many soldiers is a country willing to martyr? How much of fuel or other price rise is one willing to accept? Does it induce a change in leadership (losing elections, unseated by a coup, etc)
  
  So, the leaders would use statements/media/etc to influence the mood of individuals for practical reasons.
  .
• Emotions help soldier and security forces morale, and hence are critical. A practical reason again.
  .
• Help in the past, and past conduct in general influences how much one nation's power-system can be trusted in what situations. It is becomes a practical part of how the future probabilities for the other nation's decisions are worked out/ 'gamed' (based on game theory, as also mentioned in one of my older posts).
  .
• If a nation has helped one in the past, it is easier to 'sell' the idea to the public at large. Selling things to people is important to retain power in a democracy, and to reduce chances of a coup or protests in an autocratic system. Both are practical issues.

While I am happy to see emotional reasons being regularly mentioned on the thread - it shows that we have our hearts in the right places - I strongly suspect it is now how the world or international politics really works.

Originally Posted by ABHI_1512

Now this thought- India is dependent on Russia for their defence needs, mainly against China and Pakistan. Now, both the countries are supportive of Russia, in fact China is now going to be the largest trading and strategic partner of Russia in the aftermath of sanctions and invasion. So in case, China decides to do some hanky panky along with Pakistan with India, wonder which side will Russia go ?? Just a random thought !!

IMO, the need of Indian defence isn't limited to China and Pakistan. Be weak enough and all sorts of adversaries would show up, as it would be viable for them to bully us. How countries deal with us would change; from the weaker ones to the US, all would change. It is said that the best way to safeguard peace is to be well prepared for war.

Based on their interests, The Russia-China-Pakistan axis has been much talked about in geo-political circles. My guess is that Russia would play it a bit like how India is now between Ukraine and Russia. We show that we are neutral, but do not do things that significantly damage Russia's interests, yet maintain relations with the West. If China and India have a major conflict, I imagine Russia to seem neutral, and not put off China in any significant way. Just might act as the mediator in a conflict when the time is ripe.

That said, what often appears to influence relations of any country with US and Russia is whether one is procuring significant arms from them. As of now, one might say that India is totally confused as to which side of the table one wants to sit on; yet one might also say that India is playing it beautifully to keep both interested and engaged, which prevents them from making India their lapdog. With my limited knowledge and ability, I think that India has played it's constrained hand extremely well over the decades, and moved with the times.

Other related thoughts:

• Russia openly going all for China at the cost of India, would push India towards the US. Not favourable for Russia.
• China going after us hammer and tongs would again push India towards the US. If pushed enough, we might have to accept US bases in India. Bad for China.
• US pushes us beyond a point, we end up leaning towards the Russia-China grouping, even if it means some compromises.
• In an ideal world, we would not want to have trouble in our immediate neighbourhood and be on good terms with China, whether or not the border is defined (as of now it is in China's interest to keep the border unclear), however peace between India and China is not in the US interest, as it combines two major emerging powers (at different stages though), which in times to come would be a counterweight to the US; more so when combined with Russia.

As before, gaming of scenarios is done for long periods (a 100+ years) and a peaceful border of India and China, with them spending less on defence and more on economic growth and being able to combine forces to take on others is not in the interest of current centres of global power, and rarely talked about on media - mainstream or social.

[DicKy]

Originally Posted by Poitive

[*] China going after us hammer and tongs would again push India towards the US. If pushed enough, we might have to accept US bases in India. Bad for China.

As far as we know, we may already have some back room agreements with the USA regarding it. Especially in case of China attacking.

But. The day, IMHO, USA bases are allowed in India, would be the day we failed as a nation.

[CarNerd]

Originally Posted by Poitive

Other related thoughts:
[*] Russia openly going all for China at the cost of India, would push India towards the US. Not favourable for Russia.
[*] China going after us hammer and tongs would again push India towards the US. If pushed enough, we might have to accept US bases in India. Bad for China.
[*] US pushes us beyond a point, we end up leaning towards the Russia-China grouping, even if it means some compromises.

Reading this I get the feeling of:

[Samurai]

Originally Posted by Poitive

China going after us hammer and tongs would again push India towards the US. If pushed enough, we might have to accept US bases in India. Bad for China.

This is a very unlikely scenario. I am surprised you would even think this.

Why is USA afraid to put boots on the ground in Ukraine? Because even the No.1 military in the world can't afford to fight No.2 military in the world without getting totally bloody and losing too much. This is not a tennis match where the superior player will win and everyone goes home. USA could not defeat Taliban, after trying for 20 years. No one wins in an offensive war anymore. When the war ends, the defender can declare victory despite being decimated.

Yet somehow it is assumed that No.3 military in the world would try to invade no.4 military and that the latter would be desperate enough accept US bases. The Indo-China fight will never go beyond the border clashes. Neither country can afford to sustain a long war, since both know there will be no winners. India will never have to accept US bases.

Thanks to Ukraine invasion, US & West have exposed their cards. China is watching how US & West is helping a white European country under invasion by powerful nuclear neighbor. The help is limited to sanctions, harsh words and arms/money supply to the victim. That means if China invades a certain non-white asian island, the reaction will be even less. Sure, Taiwan can turn into a poison pill and give tough time to China. But they don't have to be afraid of sanctions at all. Heck, even when we were fighting China in 2020, we were importing huge from China. Even enemies of China can't afford to ban Chinese imports.

[AltoLXI]

• China expressing "concern" to French president and German chancellor about the negative effects of sanctions.
  
• US trying to woo Venezuela and they responding back by releasing two prisoners.
  
• UAE and Saudi snubbing US and not interested in talking to POTUS.
  
• And Zelenskiy no longer interested in joining NATO

Interesting cat and mouse games...

[JithinR]

I guess this means that Putin is finally going to send in professional soldiers (saw a lot of comments in the thread about how Russia is not actually deploying it's real strength yet) and stop sending in teenagers with no real combat experience. This after lying to them about being deployed for military training exercises.

https://youtu.be/zdH0FhnBWwY

Nice suave touch from him addressing this issue directly to the women in his country considering some of the video that did manage to come out from behind the iron curtain.

https://youtu.be/oXW_fIo8nlQ

[RiverRanger]

Originally Posted by Samurai

For the first time, here is a video from John Mearsheimer after the Ukraine invasion started.

Jump to 5:50 position, and he will tell you who is to be blamed for this war. The first 4 minutes, the audio is bad, avoid that part.

https://Youtu.be/ppD_bhWODDc?t=350

An issue I have with Prof Mearsheimer's position is that he assumes Russia and US are equal.

However, we know that this is not true. In 1962, both Soviet Union and the US were about equally powerful- so it actually made sense to loudly oppose the missile deployment in Cuba. Soviet Union ended up withdrawing the move.

Right now, however, the US is at least 10 times more powerful, if not more. 5 times in economy and the rest militarily and technologically.

So if you behave like Mike Tyson without being a heavyweight, most likely you'll get punched in the nose. That's what is happening. Russia is bleeding and now there are signs that Putin may even resort to N weapons (tactical, just for psy ops) to keep his hold on power. Afterwards, the best-case scenario for Russia would be to become a stooge of China and the latter would extract its own pound of flesh for all the favours.

Putin should have indulged in brinkmanship and negotiations- and extracted concessions. But his initial set of demands themselves was so outrageous (e.g. NATO to shrink back to pre-1997 level) that the negotiations did not mane much headway.

Of course, US policies are very much responsible for the mess the world is in today- but more blame is on the guy who pulls the trigger and starts the killings.

[volkman10]

Meanwhile Satellite images show activity at North Korean nuclear site, for first time since 2018.

International monitors have also reported the North’s main nuclear reactor facility at Yongbyon appears to be in full swing, potentially creating fuel for nuclear weapons.

In South Korea, where voters will elect a new president, the National Security Council said on Sunday it was paying particularly close attention to Yongbyon and Punggye-ri, without elaborating.

Link

[condor]

US drinks gas day in and day out. How long will they tolerate high gas prices ? The average price couple of days back was already more than $4.17 a gallon. Public sentiment will grow, once any allowable strategic reserves are used.

Originally Posted by DicKy

As far as we know, we may already have some back room agreements with the USA regarding it. Especially in case of China attacking..

Any such agreements/arrangements will be situation specific, and not unconditional. At the height of the stand-off with China, we did have some anti-missile systems set up near LAC - manned by US personnel. But then that was when Trump was there. The same will not be done now (when Joe-Kamala are at the WH).

[SnS_12]

Originally Posted by Samurai

Thanks to Ukraine invasion, US & West have exposed their cards. China is watching how US & West is helping a white European country under invasion by powerful nuclear neighbor. The help is limited to sanctions, harsh words and arms/money supply to the victim. That means if China invades a certain non-white asian island, the reaction will be even less.

The is true but the other way to look at it is that other Asian countries who consider China an enemy as well might join forces to save Taiwan as they know they could be next and no support will come from West. The biggest being Japan who have been openly supporting Taiwan and would do so more with the current situation in Ukraine.

China won’t attack Taiwan till its 100% sure they can win and this is already challenging being an island country for Chinese ground troops to arrive unlike how Russians entered Ukraine.

[Samurai]

Originally Posted by RiverRanger

Right now, however, the US is at least 10 times more powerful, if not more. 5 times in economy and the rest militarily and technologically.

It does not matter. US has 10 times less ability to accept casualty. Russia can play war of attrition since it is practically a dictatorship and their mindset is different. Meanwhile, US administration constantly thinks about the next election. Why did US concede in Vietnam or Afganistan despite being 100+ times more powerful, because they couldn't handle opposition to war domestically. War is never like a Tom Clancy novel. Bush Jr.'s administration was heavily influenced by Tom Clancy, and then they found out it is a fiction.

Originally Posted by RiverRanger

So if you behave like Mike Tyson without being a heavyweight, most likely you'll get punched in the nose. That's what is happening. Russia is bleeding and now there are signs that Putin may even resort to N weapons (tactical, just for psy ops) to keep his hold on power.

Sorry, sports analogies don't work here. Nations can keep fighting for a long time if they have enough man power and don't mind attrition. And Russia has the biggest military in the world.

US centric thinkers keep thinking that Russia will give up after a bloody nose. But Russian don't think like that. Just remember WW-II, where Russia lost 20 million, and USA lost 0.5 million.

[rAijin_]

Originally Posted by Poitive

Other related thoughts:[list][*] Russia openly going all for China at the cost of India, would push India towards the US. Not favourable for Russia.[*] China going after us hammer and tongs would again push India towards the US. If pushed enough, we might have to accept US bases in India. Bad for China.[*] US pushes us beyond a point, we end up leaning towards the Russia-China grouping, even if it means some compromises.

Originally Posted by DicKy

As far as we know, we may already have some back room agreements with the USA regarding it. Especially in case of China attacking.
But. The day, IMHO, USA bases are allowed in India, would be the day we failed as a nation.

Originally Posted by CarNerd

Reading this I get the feeling of:

I believe China's top priority is Taiwan, not India. India might be a 2nd - 4th priority in terms of land grabbing if China has such a priority. Yes, China will continue to poke India at borders and sponsor Pakistan based terrorism. But for the foreseeable future, it will be limited to these things.

Why China won't attack India

• The first point to note is that China does not consider India to be part of itself. Apart from the disputed border area, China understands that the remaining territory belongs to India
  Unlike Pakistan, which would like to conquer all of India.
• For the majority of the year, India's border with China is characterised by extremely cold weather. Therefore, it becomes very easy to defend and very difficult to attack.
  In the recent border dispute, China suffered more casualties as compared to India.
• Taiwan is China's top priority since it believes Taiwan is an integral part of China. Also, Taiwan will be easier to capture compared to India.
  But, Capturing Taiwan in itself is a bigger challenge for China with US supporting Taiwan with all its military might.
• China has more than twice as much military power as India (in almost every aspect), yet India is still the 4th most powerful military behind only China. Even when it comes to nuclear weapons, India is next to China.
  As opposed to Russia - Ukraine, Ukraine stands no where near Russia as compared to it and it is not a nuclear nation.
• China's economy is more dependent on India and the world especially US and its allies. In case of war, China's economy wouldn't be able to bear such heavy sanctions.
• US: US will support India with military ( weapons only ) and sanctions on China. And, China knows this.
  Not because US loves India. But because US is scared of China becoming a stronger country than US.
• Russia: Russia will try to refrain China from attacking India for as long as possible because it puts Russia in a very difficult position.
  Remember, Russia is also scared that China will become more powerful that Russia.

But, what if China attacks India?

• Today's India is not the India of the 1960's. India can very well defend its border with China and Pakistan together.
• US (its allies and quad) will take full advantage of this situation and try to decimate China's economy with sanctions. No, US will not launch its military on China.
  Who knows, even Russia may take India's support openly and impose sanctions on China.
• But, if China comes at India will full might and of course with Pakistan's military on both fronts, there will be a full blown nuclear war.
  Don't worry about India or China then, since the earth as we know today won't exist.

So, China will remain peaceful with India?
No.
China knows that invading India is a lose-lose situation. So, instead of waging a full blown war on India, China will continue to poke India at its borders. China will also continue to help Pakistan to wage proxy war on India using terrorism.

This again is not because China hates India. It is just because China is also scared of India becoming more powerful than China.

[SnS_12]

Originally Posted by Samurai

It does not matter. US has 10 times less ability to accept casualty. Russia can play war of attrition since it is practically a dictatorship and their mindset is different. Meanwhile, US administration constantly thinks about the next election. Why did US concede in Vietnam or Afganistan despite being 100+ times more powerful, because they couldn't handle opposition to war domestically. War is never like a Tom Clancy novel.

Absolutely correct. Putin has proved it by his words and actions that despite the threat from the West of economic sanctions he is willing to take it to the end. His country is in financial ruins and hence not bothered with another sanction as it is just another problem added to the box of problems he already has. But on the other side is US willing to loose everything against Russia?

What this war has done opened a can of worms for US as they are getting exposed on multiple fronts when it comes to providing political stability showcasing their military strength. Their allies in Asia like Japan and Taiwan are already very worried Japan a staunch upholder of antinuclear sentiments is now seeking US nukes.

Also smaller NATO member countries are actually evaluating the protection they have under NATO umbrella as the missiles placed on their land are not theirs and they can’t launch them without US approval in case of an attack. So its like having the top gun in the market without bullets.

Nukes in today’s world can just act as a deterrent for one powerful country but when two superpower like Russia and US have nukes it is just useless as even use of a tactical nuke will lead to a full blown nuclear war and even if it lands on their land only still the whole world will be devastated thanks to the radiation generated.

So if America really wants to be a superpower it has to lead by eg and give up its nuke and get everyone else on the planet to do so. And I say this because they ahve the largest amount of nukes so they can’t expect other countries to give up theirs like they did with Ukraine and continue holding on to theirs just like they made companies of other western countries who deal in Oil pull up their investment in Russia and only stopped importing Oil from Russia themselves as off yesterday after a lot of global pressure to do more.

More lethal weapons don’t mean a peaceful home on earth for mankind less do.