[CarNerd]

Bad news for Auto Sector as the war is likely to increase semiconductor shortage along with increase in Metal, Crude Oil prices:

https://youtu.be/h0iJySniMFs

Link: https://https://www.cnbctv18.com/aut...732592.htm/amp

Meanwhile Putin:

[SnS_12]

Originally Posted by Poitive

My impression is that it is done to dent the inner circle of Putin, which is also a source of power for him.

True, but all this is like more of a PR exercise than anything. These Oligarchs are very powerful Russian Businessmen and have a lot of say for Abramovich (Owner of Chelesea football club which is up for sale) was the first person to recommend to Yeltsin that Vladimir Putin be his successor as the Russian president. But, then these guys very well new what is going to be consequences for Russia invading Ukraine and had planned for it accordingly. All of these were already hit by CAATSA sanctions signed by Trump back in 2017. At the moment targeting them individually is just creating transportation issues (seizing Jets and Yachts), whereas the truth they have donated a lot of money to America.

From the time Joe Biden pulled out from Afghanistan and the way he did it the Global leaders are just seeing weakness in his leadership and that is never a good sign as the American president has always been the most feared and respected politician/leader among countries.

US has got so desperate that they have asked Venezuela and Iran to increase oil productions. Among talks of sanctions on Russia how can they ask Iran and Venezuela for more oil?? Obviously they refused this request. And the biggest is Saudi who refused America’s request too and when MBS was asked what will Joe Biden think of you he said ‘I don’t care’.

Finally, when Blinken said on CNN that the U.S. and allies were looking “at the prospect of banning the import of Russian oil, while making sure that there is a still an appropriate supply of oil on world markets, what did chancellor of Germany do sent out that message what I have posted above.

US has got this whole situation very wrong and Putin will not stop if you wanted to sanction Oil it had to be done on day one as economic implications will happen even if you do it now, but the delay has just exposed your weakness to take a hard stand to the world.

[apachelongbow]

The US trying to preach to the world, trying to stop a war, root for freedom, values, free speech etc is akin to a terrorist quoting scriptures. Completely pointless and a big farce.
What Russia did is unacceptable in a civil society. The world's response meanwhile is far from satisfactory. Sitting afar and watching a nation burn is again not expected from a civilized world. The way Russia is conducting the war shows that they clearly want some kind of secret deal making with the West and are really not interested in a wholesale war and occupation of territory.

[iTNerd]

Putin's greed is what will lead Russia's downfall in World stage. Just 2 weeks ago, Putin had achieved what he wanted since becoming a leader - the independence of Donetsk and Luhansk regions and their accession to Russia. Crimea was his second grab after the Abkhazia and South Ossetia. And the West had more or less accepted that a part of eastern ukraine will need to be put on buffet to satisfy Putin's belly. They know to achieve a stable Ukraine in the long term, the regions with ethnic Russians will have to be ceded anyway. The way he got Crimea easily had embolden his guts to take on much larger appetite. And now we see the Russian Army trying to capture multiple cities, not least the eastern regions. But with logistics problem and low moral among the conscripts, there is a huge gap to fill in for the Russian Army before it can even hope to establish a hold on population centers. And the West is not going to lie low. The stakes are even higher for the West with EU/NATO member states such as Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, Romania, Bulgaria, Poland and even Germany with significant ethnic Russian populations being targeted for land grab in the pretext of sending 'peace keepers' to protect fellow Russians from genocide. The only way to tame the bear is to weaken it and the West has accepted that they will have to face some loses of their own such as high oil and gas price but it will bleed Russia to the extent that Putin will have to unilaterally withdraw its forces in shame. The invasion that Putin started, to restore the grand old days of the soviet empire, will be his Waterloo. I meant just look at state of his army in Ukraine - a superpower bowed down by the ineffectiveness of their men and the machines. With a pariah state, crippling sanctions, demoralized army that got a beating from a much smaller army equipped with outdated soviet arms, Putin can only expect his downfall, either through a coup or a managed changeover to an acceptable leader that can do business with the West.

[SnS_12]

Originally Posted by iTNerd

Putin's greed is what will lead Russia's downfall in World stage.

Greed to become a USSR again or something much bigger.?

If he really is planning to make Russia a soviet union again and bring back those countries under Russia is will be slow and painful if he tries to do it the Ukraine way Putin will be wise enough to know he won't be successful trying to take down another country. He invaded Ukraine because he didn't want NATO making them a member and will mostly probably leave Ukraine alone once he is achieved his objective. But what if he was planning to do this from 2014 with a second motive to challenge the US and their global influence?

In that scenario the world is looking at the friendship with China, because Russia cannot challenge the US alone and will need backing. But will a tie up with China really benefit Russia or the one they really want in the long run as Russia surely doesn't trust China just like the rest of the world. So, what could be Putin's bigger plan in all this?

The counter message from German Chancellor on US planning sanctions on Russia shows there are cracks developing. EU knows if Russian gas taps are switched off then their economy is doomed there is no two way about and that void just cannot be filled up. So could Russia now open back channels or already have on going talks with EU members and say I am a European country too and just like Russia you don't like the American dominance and know deep down that their financial system is broken and can crash anytime and take us all with them. So, here is what Russia proposes to do, we become a part of the EU and adopt the Euro (the ruble has already gone to the dogs in value). I bring energy and military security for the entire region and change the Russian threat perception for Europe which has been created by the US. With France, we will be a dominant military player and provide security and arms to Asian countries to keep China in check (a big win for the world in general). Imagine with Russian Oil and commodity dominance becoming part of the EU, will just make the EURO and the EU so much stronger and stable with their energy requirement and we all fight the common enemy US and help provide a counter reserve currency to the world before the whole financial system collapses.

Also, as a add on I also bring Turkey to the table as they need Russian gas too.

USSR (15 countries) and EU (27 + 1 Russia)

Imagine the look of UK politicians who broke from EU just because 52% of the population wanted that but forgetting 48% of their citizens still wanted to stay and remain a part of EU. This was no corporate board meeting where the highest shareholder decided what needs to be done.

[skanchan95]

Originally Posted by aim120

That su27 was at the kyiv city center. Russian S400 systems haven't entered Ukraine yet.

This thread pretty much confirms it.

[amit_snk]

Originally Posted by thanixravindran

Scent of money always trumps the stench of dictatorship, isn't it?



Just quoting you only for reference as there are several posts regarding the democracy and the love of West for it. Sure I believe in Democracy that is the reason we are having a forum and voice our opinions and thoughts freely.

However, when you see generally about dictatorship post WW2, you will always see the names of Communist, Asian and may be African/LATAM dictators. But how many of us know two Western European countries were ruled by Dictators till 1970s. Yes, I am talking about the Franco's Spain and Salazar's Portugal. Both of them were allowed to get away for all their actions and rule till their time. One of them was even a founding member of NATO, EFTA and what not. Why were the poor people of Portugal and Spain not allowed to taste democracy by their neighbors?

Also, don't forget how the West has rehabilitated PRC after 1972 in the backdrop of Mao's disaster.

The reason for this post is not to support Russia or oppose the west. Irrespective of where you are in the spectrum of global politics, Politicians are power hungry wolves (they have to be to survive) and please do not take their word for everything as they will change the 'narrative' as it suits them.

In order to make myself more clear and answer your points, we need to look at the evolution of democracy as a form of governance. French revolution laid the foundations of modern Democracies in 1789, but USA started propagating this system to the rest of the world only after WW2, when they were challenged by another ideology (Communism) from the east.

During 1960s and 70s, Europe after the war was in ruins, USA was deeply involved in cold war with a formidable USSR, when you are faced with a formidable enemy, in order to keep unity in your own flank, you tend to ignore little delinquents on your side, that's the reason for tolerating dictatorships in Spain and Portugal, this was the same reason USA tried to wean China away from USSR.

Soviets lost, America won the cold war and also the political ideology war in 1990s, Europe achieved historic economic development in this period (HDI of most of EU countries was highest in the world), so confidence, or i should say overconfidence, on Democratic ideology was very high in western world. First challenge they faced after the cold war was Islamic terrorism in the late 1990s onwards, and they try to smash it by Bludgeoning Afghanistan and then Iraq, destroying these nations in the process, but very quickly realised the limits to there power and made the hasty retreat from Iraq and lately from Afghanistan, (Remember, they only provided intelligence and air support in Syrian war and in war against ISIS, no boots on the ground).

But what has happened during the retreat of the western world is the rise of one man in Russia, Putin, who, filled with a historical grudge against western world and there Democracies, for breaking of USSR, has been trying to give them the taste of there own medicine. Putin has developed a very sophisticated system of TV, print and social media machinery to influence and rip open the fault lines of the western societies, success of these operations are the reason for the rise of extreme right wing groups in Germany, France, USA among many other countries. Putin has propped up or supported Dictators or Right wing extremist group leaders in many countries and he has been so successful in doing that, this epoch, that we are living in is called as a 'Strong man macho leaders' era. Biggest highlight of his success has been the ability to influence US election in favour of Donald Trump and rise of extreme Right wing white nationalists in America, some of whom have risen to the ranks of Senators in American assembly, these Senators now are rooting for Putin in this war just because they think Russia is more Whiter then America.

Western world believes they have tolerated Putin and his policies to such a point, that now, he has become toxic to there own Democracies and there values, and cannot be ignored, so now when they are helping 'Democratic Ukraine' fight against Russia, or assuring to save Baltic nations of NATO from Putin, they are not only helping these countries, they believe, they are saving there own Democracies. According to them, if left unchecked, Putin will destroy everything they have gained after the painful 1940s. Looking at the actions and statements of Putin in the recent past, i think, assessment of the western world is fairly correct, this man has the capacity and willingness to destroy not only the Western Democracies but the whole world, thus needs to be stopped.

[RiverRanger]

Originally Posted by condor

India and Russia have had a long friendship, and they have saved us many a time, including neutralizing the presence of US Navy in our waters, during the earlier wars. 1971 If I remember correctly.
* *
Btw looks like most folks dont have access to Russian media. Most opinions and posts based on what is in the regular media - which is all US biased.

In 1971, US and China ganged up against India and what came to be known as Bangladesh- so it was natural of the Soviet Union to support us and they did it, to their credit.

In the 1962 India-China war, the Soviet Union stayed neutral, saying "we will not interfere between a brother (China- due to communism. Later they fell out) and a friend (India).

So point is- countries do things when they are in their self-interest. Right now our self-interest is to keep quiet and we are doing that. However, we are not at all happy with the way Russia and the West have faced off. We know it won't end up to our advantage in any way. China, on the other hand, is rubbing its hands with glee!

On media- the US media is at least free. You can still hear a mainstream academician like John Mearsheimer actually supporting Russia. (you will only need to dig deeper) All the Russian media is currently only the state propaganda. Anyone spreading any news contrary to the state version can be convicted for up to 15 years on charges of spreading "fake news".

[.HEM]

Expansion of NATO is a greater threat to Russia. I too feel why non Atlantic countries are getting induced into NATO? I also have a naive question: When US invaded Iraq and found nothing except overthrowing Saddam, why no economic sanctions were levied on USA?

[ashokrajagopal]

Note: This post is not about this very thread or the esteemed members who have commented.
I havent even read thru the whole thread because there are so many opinions and is a very busy thread.



While Iraq War 1 in early 90s is considered as the first war in the age of 24X7 TV News, this Russia-Ukraine war is turning out to a new paradigm, as the first war in the age of content generation.

The scale of Pre Bunking ( pls google this for some latest articles pointing out details) from both sides is enourmous.

The art of flooding the news space with content to go one up before the other party does their propaganda is not only obvious, but its not even done covertly anymore.

In the last few years, many journalists and other media personalities had transformed into self employed professionals with the advent of medium, substack, and video/podcast platforms. The transition from news to content was happening for sometime, but what we are seeing here is more content generation than news reporting.

Just like how it works elsewhere in social media, things like cat pictures, personal anecdotes, family pictures, and heroic stories are all being touted around blatantly.
Same with simping about "strength" and "masculinity".

News was getting Meme-fied earlier, but its happening at lightning speed now.

To consume all this objectively and rationally would require a lot of energy.


There are some aspects of social media which I thought to be benign are beginning to worry me ( Its my personal opinion and thought, no other foundation).

Social media groups discussing politics usually come up with two types who generate all the content for social media.
a) Super posters : These are people who provide most anchor content, explanations, insights etc.
They are typically universal understanders. The memes about Covid expert transforming to Geo politics experts fit here.

b) Worriers: These are people who have their own areas of interest/expertise.
Strong views, deep discussions, fights etc are a hallmark. People who know me usually put me into this bucket.

The worrying aspect ? It seems to me that the above two categories are no longer personal or humane, but are available for hire.

In the past couple of weeks, I have seen support for Russia come from the least expected corners. USSR was a favourite punching bag for some groups, but these groups have now mutated into a totally different self now.
Eg. The analysis for all these will take some years to come out, but from some stats I have seen, hashtags stanning Putin has come out from India from sources attached to a certain kind of politics.

Be prepared to be thoroughly disappointed with effects of social media if it has transformed from a space for personal expression to a space to hire "emotion creators".
Product advertisements may do fine, but geo politics with social media armies for hire does not paint a good future for me.

For the next news item, WA fwd, FB or IG post about Ukraine/Russia: Pls devise out a strategy to figure out if it is created by an influencer on hire, legacy media's cosplay as social media, or indeed a form of personal expression like how it is supposed to be.


PS: I have not used USSR/Russia interchangeably.

[Poitive]

Originally Posted by ashokrajagopal

Be prepared to be thoroughly disappointed with effects of social media if it has transformed from a space for personal expression to a space to hire "emotion creators".

What you say, mate, is very relevant. Taking it further:

I think social media has been used to influence emotions and opinions almost from the onset.

What I do think we need is people to be able to build a sense of what to trust more, and what to trust less. Some parts are fairly obvious (eg random sensational forward on WhatsApp which has little/no cost to the originator of the message), whereas some are not. It takes time, a broad sense of the world, figuring out trustworthy people in one's circle for different subjects (not necessarily those whose views one always agrees with), and an intuitive sense. I can see people developing on that front. Only that people are at different stages of that development.

Hiring people for the job is an overt aggressive way to influence and comes with baggage. The more sophisticated way to influence comes from using platforms to selectively highlight and give more traction to certain viewpoints over others. Call it algorithm or whatever - selection is done by social media, and even search companies, as to which posts are seen more. Both methods of influencing have been in use by both sides. I guess one side is much more sophisticated and invested in one method than than the other.

We should also bear in mind that it is the medium which has changed, but the essence remains quite similar to before. Mainstream media and smaller publications have been doing similar things forever.

It is in the nature of democracy for people with power, to influence common folk towards views which suit the influencers.

Much can be influenced over one generation - much has changed from people keeping thoughts in a personal private diary and getting hugely offended with anyone accessing it, to now flaunting 'personal' daily lives on social media and needing people to see and validate them (likes/thumbs-up).

[DIY410]

A young Biden in 1997 knew the consequence of getting Ukraine into Nato, yet they choose to provoke Russia. At that time Russia was just in a really poor state after disintegrating from USSR, both in terms military and economy.
https://twitter.com/AlexeiArora/stat...QOfduoUPatWV7w

[ABHI_1512]

Originally Posted by Poitive

I think social media has been used to influence emotions and opinions almost from the onset.

Firstly, Thank you for your posts in this thread. Secondly, the quoted part above just made me realise one funny part regarding Russia and the support it has garnered for the invasion, specially here in India.

Lots has been said about how Russia has always supported India and that India is covertly supporting Russia by abstaining from UNSC votes and all and how India is dependent on Russia for arms and jets.

Now this thought- India is dependent on Russia for their defence needs, mainly against China and Pakistan. Now, both the countries are supportive of Russia, in fact China is now going to be the largest trading and strategic partner of Russia in the aftermath of sanctions and invasion. So in case, China decides to do some hanky panky along with Pakistan with India, wonder which side will Russia go ?? Just a random thought !!

[GeneralJazz]

Originally Posted by ABHI_1512

So in case, China decides to do some hanky panky along with Pakistan with India, wonder which side will Russia go ?? Just a random thought !!

A recent statement from the Chinese Foreign Minister could be read as China being aware of this situation.

‘Let’s be be partners for mutual success rather than adversaries for mutual attrition.’ Chinese Foreign Minister calls for relations to move forward “on the right track”
Recent “setbacks” in India-China ties do not serve the interests of both countries, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said on Monday, calling on ties “to move forward on the right track”.

Link

While it would be foolish to completely trust any of their statements, I really do hope something constructive comes out of this.

[SnS_12]

Originally Posted by Poitive

What I do think we need is people to be able to build a sense of what to trust more, and what to trust less.

Reminded me of this movie "Ankhon Dekhi"

Originally Posted by DIY410

A young Biden in 1997 knew the consequence of getting Ukraine into Nato, yet they choose to provoke Russia. At that time Russia was just in a really poor state after disintegrating from USSR, both in terms military and economy.

Well that video on twitter doesn't give you the complete picture like members have discussed above on what social media tries to do. He goes on to say that in the current situation that will be the outcome, but in the coming years those countries will still like to join NATO and Russia will realize its in their interest too and there will be no option for Russia but to admit to the reality of the situation. This was solely his belief and hope back then in his own words

Full video on the below link. Watch from the top time stamp 17:20..

https://www.c-span.org/video/?86974-1/nato-expansion