[Fuldagap]

Originally Posted by avishar

These are students at Sumy University who have made this video to declare that they are moving towards the border and if anything happens to them it will be the responsibility of the Government of India.

https://twitter.com/IndianExpress/st...tes-7801923%2F


“This is our last video. It is the 10th day of war. Russia has opened humanitarian corridors. We are afraid, we have awaited a lot and we cannot wait anymore. We are risking our life; we are moving towards the border. If anything happens to us, all the responsibility will be for government and Indian Embassy and Mission Ganga is a failure ”


Oh boy. Sumy is 50 km from the Russian border, so I guess that is what they mean by "heading to the border". Tough trek. From Google I see that temperatures are expected to drop down to -10 over the next few days and it will snow. Fifty kilometres through this weather and active combat. I hope they have their guardian angels looking down on them.

Desperate times bring out the hidden capabilities that the human mind and body is capable of. Walking, facing the harsh weather and terrain will be easily done by these youngsters. They will also be able to tread around dangers if they are able foresee them in time. IMHO it is better to move and apply mind than to stay put in such circumstances. Whatever they know, they know better than the next guy available about the ground situation.

The mentally or physically weak ones will also have the morale and support of their fellow friends.
God help these bravehearts! Let there be an easy passage in terms of firing and blasts atleast.

[DarthVeda]

Originally Posted by BoneCollector

The AN225 has suffered irreparable damage and is totally written off.

This is so sad to see, that is an one off flight, and I just saw that documentary a month back about it transporting huge boilers from Chile to Bolivia.

[Poitive]

Originally Posted by ABHI_1512

Link: https://twitter.com/amishdevgan/stat...826669058?s=21

I mean, as an editor he really thought that India can tell Russia to stop bombing and then tell them back to resume bombing after 6 hours !! I don’t know what to say !

It appears to be a silly interpretation by Amish. However there probably is a bit more to events. The MEA briefing talks about some cables and skirts details. He also explicitly debunks the theory saying that it would imply that India could then ask for resumption of bombing.

Please watch MEA briefing from 19:50 to 22:35

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DX6KRwxy95A&t=1186

Further, my guess about this is that the Russian side would've indicated the time and route which might be good for Indian evacuees to take; and this expectedly would be informal/unwritten.

This is the kind of backdoor give and take which I was talking about earlier. Lots of backdoor negotiations based on who can do what for the other's interest would be on by the bureaucratic-govt machinery. Based on mutual interest than 'friendship'.

'Friendship' in such matters is only a matter of aligmnent of interests - short, medium and long term interests; interests of nations, and also of decision makers in those nations.

[Thad E Ginathom]

Is it really so much all about America? Is NATO all about America? Does America have more than one vote in NATO?

Seems to me there has never been such a huge and vast excluded middle in a conversation. Literally, a huge and vast physical excluded middle: Mainland Europe and that no-longer-significant island off its shores. It's their piece of earth this is happening on: USA is a continent and an ocean away.

And...

Putin has convinced the world (well, quite a lot of people: a good few here) of this huge false premise: If Ukraine joined Nato, it would be an offensive threat to Russia. Really? A few weeks ago, I could have been easily convinced that my idea that Russia is more of a threat to the rest of the world than the rest of the world is to Russia, but Putin has now proved otherwise.

If NATO had been in Ukraine; if NATO did have those Putin-made-famous missiles in Ukraine, Putin could not have done what he is doing now. And that is what he has against the alliance of Ukraine/Europe/NATO. Not some myth that he would have a knife at his throat: that's just an excuse that he has made people believe. He really is a master manipulator.

[Sheel]

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[skanchan95]

There has been a steady and qualitative rise in Russian Air Force losses in the past couple of days. Earlier it seemed to be limited to helicopters. But now they gave started losing ground attack jets too.

Yesterday , they lost two Su-25s and an Mi-8 to MANPADS. Today they lost a Mi-24 that got hit by an Igla or a Stinger from a very close range and at low altitude. A Russian Su-34 was hit by a SAM during a low altitude bombing run. Although both the Pilot and the Bombardier/Navigator ejected, the pilot survived but the BN died. The downed Su-34 pilot is a Syrian War Veteran ana decorated pilot.

Recklessness/Overconfidence, poor intelligence/tactics....whatever may be the cause for the sudden rise in Russian aircraft losses, but with the focus now shifting to Interdiction, Convoy Escort and Close Air Support in an Urban environment with all those MANPADS around, RuAF losses are only going to start increasing.

[condor]

Originally Posted by JithinR

But I am sure some people will spin this as U.S.A planting their CIA spies into rebel forces in Donetsk so that they could commit war crimes and then blame it all on the Russians..

Like the other recent and famous crash, it was an entity that people dont want to name openly. MH17 wasnt a Russian act, and I hear they have their evidences on who it was. And hence they are not saying anything because it wasnt them. NATO itself trains radical militants, and now they are at least planning to send these trained people into Ukraine.

* *

Anyway, Ukraine is done. Zelensky's one act is the topping on it all - releasing criminals and arming them too. At some point, the fighting will end and then these criminals will be out in the open, with arms. And enough ammo lying around to start with. No more peace, in stead it will be civil war. Ukraine will take a long time to gather itself.

And if such a civil war/internal strife happens, I doubt NATO would want such a country on it's membership list. Ukraine will lose in more ways than one.

[DIY410]

Originally Posted by Thad E Ginathom;5271460
If NATO [I

had[/i] been in Ukraine; if NATO did have those Putin-made-famous missiles in Ukraine, Putin could not have done what he is doing now. And that is what he has against the alliance of Ukraine/Europe/NATO. Not some myth that he would have a knife at his throat: that's just an excuse that he has made people believe. He really is a master manipulator.

Again refer to US senator Bernie Sandors video. He ask in the US congress if Russia placed missiles in Mexico or Cuba would the US do anything different from what Russia would do.

People who are not into defense, must understand why placing anti ballistic missiles close to your adversary country matters.

Below is a video of arguably the most advanced ICBM, the Russian Sarmat

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-KIrHrMdzE8

Below the Russian Topal M slightly older but still modern

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QuVWSVywHdA

As you can see in above videos the sarmat is 18000km range and Topal M is around 11000km. But when its climbing a ICBM is slow, this the moment where the US Anti balistic missiles in Nato and ships will intercept them before it reaches the space, since when the ICBM returns its going to be coming at 20000+ km/hr not easy to intercept hence its always better to destroy the ICBM during its relative slower climbing phase.


So below video is arguably the fastest anti ballistic interceptor out there again by Russia (they are ahead of the world when it comes to missiles).
While the US missiles may not be as fast the below missile, it certainly will be faster then a ICBM climbing. Since ICBM are heavy. Now you understand why Russia see Nato placing missiles surrounding its borders is a threat to them.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bag2HJhcV44

https://youtu.be/JZ5Dkf6wHcE?t=31

Also notice the test of that missile and Russia space launches takes place in Kazakhstan. Last month or so there where protests there also against their government, any one want to guess which country would have been responsible for it.

In our own country we had protest in Tamil Nadu for Russian built Nuclear power plants. During the Manmohan Singh period, the investigation revealed that foreign funded NGO where responsible for it.
https://www.firstpost.com/india/kuda...ds-224821.html

[Thad E Ginathom]

Originally Posted by DIY410

People who are not into defense, must understand why placing anti ballistic missiles close to your adversary country matters.

Again, I could very well be talking through my hat, but isn't the America adversary of Russia thing rather mid-20th-century?

[DIY410]

Originally Posted by Thad E Ginathom

Again, I could very well be talking through my hat, but isn't the America adversary of Russia thing rather mid-20th-century?

Then why didn't US allow Russia to join Nato, Putin himself asked both Clinton and Bush.
This article written in oct 2001, itself implies putin wanted a closer relationship with the west and wanted to join Nato. But the Military Industrial Complex of the US will never let that happen.
https://carnegieendowment.org/2001/1...1-2001-pub-840

[vishnurp99]

Originally Posted by Thad E Ginathom

Again, I could very well be talking through my hat, but isn't the America adversary of Russia thing rather mid-20th-century?

I may be mistaken but the impression that I get is France is the only EU country with an independent foreign policy.

Both UK & Germany are like Japan. They are too dependent on USA for defense and toe their line pretty much always. USA has attempted to reduce Russia to that status but haven't been successful so far.

I am happy to be corrected here though. Please share your thoughts.

[yashg]

One thing is clear, things are not going according to plan for Putin. Actually things are not going according to plan for anyone.

West did not think Putin would actually invade. He did.
Putin did not think west would respond in any meaningful way. They did.
Putin thought Ukraine will be a pushover. It hasn't been so far.

Bad planning, fuel and food shortages, delaying the invasion till Winter Olympics were over upon China's insistence means Russian vehicles are bogged down in wet mud. Poorly trained conscripts who are low on morale and surrendering without fight, sabotaging their own equipment to avoid fighting.

On the other hand Ukraine's social media game has been top notch. Not many people knew who Volodymyr Zelenskyy was before the start of the war. Now he's the talk of dinner table discussions across Western nations and is hailed as a leader of the free world. He may well end up being on the cover of Time as person of the year. His selfie videos from the streets of Kyiv show defiance, his unshaven rough-and-tough looks in hunting gear give credence to his image as an underdog who is fighting for his country and his people. Ukrainians feeding surrendered Russian soldiers who are crying upon calling their mom, farmers stealing tanks and towing them away with their tractors, putting them up for sale on ebay. All viral material in the age of social media. It makes Zelenskyy a hero, Putin the villain.

The social media blitz will not stop the war, Russia will still conquer Ukraine despite poor planning and initial setbacks. It just has way too much firepower. However, the social media barrage will create sympathy amongst people in the west and their governments will find popular support to act against Russia. And acting they are and how!

Germany has agreed to send weapons for the first time to another country since the second world war. The economic sanctions against Russia are swift and severe. Russia has been cut off from the global economy. Western world has closed their skies for Russian airlines. Boeing and Airbus have refused to service the planes. World's biggest container lines have stopped shipping to Russia. Major western companies are stopping their operations in Russia. Yachts and villas of Russian oligarchs are being confiscated. Russian stock exchanges are shut since the start of the war. The central bank has doubled the interest rates to 20%. Russian economy is going to get hit hard. Much harder than Putin had anticipated. Yandex, Russia's Google+Amazon+Uber has already declared they might default on their debt.

Russia's economy is surprisingly small and largely dependent on exports of natural resources like oil & gas and metals. Their largest customers are European countries, the ones which are cutting off their trade with Russia. Even if Russia manages to find other buyers for their exports, payments are going to be an issue. Russian banks can't deal in USD, EUR or GBP anymore so exports have to be in gold, barter or another currency like Chinese Yuan.

Advantage China
China will emerge as the biggest beneficiary of this war. Russian companies are already rushing to open Chinese bank accounts. Trade with China might be their only remaining lifeline. Chinese companies may come in to fill the vacuum left by western companies. Russia will be dependent on China as a single large buyer and provider or many of its needs. Life of ordinary Russians is going to get difficult. The sanctions will not stop Russia from taking over Ukraine but hardships faced by people may cause a revolt and uprising against Putin. All those who can, will leave Russia. There are already threads on Hacker News about IT talent fleeing Russia. Brain drain coupled with thousands of jobs lost due to western companies shutting shop will have economic repercussions.

India will mostly be a bystander in this whole affair. We will be lucky if we are allowed to continue to get spare parts for our MiGs and Sukhois from Russia. Remember, we had to stop buying oil from Iran under US pressure. We are very much intertwined with the global economy and western civilization. Our population is huge but our buying power is comparatively less. China can get away with trade relations with Russia because its domestic market and production capabilities are huge. We don't have that luxury.

Putin miscalculated the cost of this war. He thought he will be able to bear the sanctions like last time. He thought western countries won't unite to oppose him. Exactly opposite has happened. He has united the major western powers like never before since WW II. He is clearly frustrated and rattled by the western response. So rattled that he is threatening nuclear war.

Ukraine will be decimated. So will be Russia's economy. China will be the winner.

[sparky@home]

This is hot, wonder what it is.

A Russian Ilyushin Il-96 special flight departed St. Petersburg to Washington with Russian diplomats onboard

https://www.radarbox.com/data/flights/RSD088/1744335081

[dragracer567]

A couple of well-put arguments and I can’t help but agree with this. Putin will never be able to convince the Ukrainian people that he is a better alternative, not after this!

https://youtu.be/FQ4hvLqNfqo

[vibbs]

The analogy of "How will India feel if China has military bases in Sri Lanka, nepal, Bangladesh etc" which has been put forward a few times is interesting.

I wonder in that case have we also given thought to the question " How would India feel if China invaded us because we became US allies?" Precisely what Ukrainians would be feeling now (despite the fact that the power equation is not the same).

Irrespective of Russian insecurity, dont Ukrainians have the right to shape their alliances? That US had done worse crimes in past does not make this okay.

Let us atleast agree to condemn all wars