re: Impact of the Russia-Ukraine war Quote:
Originally Posted by CarNerd The US while sitting in a safe place far away wants others to act on behalf of it whereas it is us who will bear the consequences of allying with it. |
The current situation does not warrant taking any sides by India. In fact, no country that has independent foreign policy and sound diplomacy will take sides unless it is directly impacted. So supporting a military alliance like NATO or an invasion is unthinkable. At the best, India's stance will always be to support a UN sponsored course of action. If you watch carefully the stance of France in Ukraine crisis which is closer to action and a NATO member, except offering a table to talk, the reaction is muted as they are still smarting on the snub of AUKUS.
Also, please remember QUAD is still informal group and not a military alliance yet. It will become a completely different game with China if it materializes. Quote:
Originally Posted by Electromotive India's ties with Russia are no longer of any consequence. We buy weapons from Russia because they are affordable for us and even then the deals end up costing a lot more than budgeted for, case in point the INS Vikramaditya. Given the ties Russia has with China, it can even prove to be a liability. We do not know if missile defenses purchased from Russia can be remotely disabled or have vulnerabilities they have revealed to China etc. hope you get the idea.
As for India-US relations, we are now too dependent on trade with the USA and need US support to keep China at bay. India's policy of neutrality didn't do any good during the 70s-80s and won't do any good now either. IMO, if the choice has to be made, it should be a prompt one and in favor of the NATO block. When living in the shadow of a juggernaut, it is beneficial to have another juggernaut on your side. |
India taking the high moral ground diplomacy on who is correct or wrong in the world is practically dead (Nehruvian foreign policy), for good.
However, writing off the relationship of Russia and choosing US will be suicidal. Also thinking about Russian weapons just as cheap is completely wrong. Hope you are aware about the restrictive clauses of usage for US based defense equipment (whether can be used as offensive or not, against whom) as well US AECA which mandates end user periodic verification for the weapons sold (and purchased by the countries with hard dollars). And the beauty is this kicks in only if USA wants to provide the weapons in the first place. Quote:
Originally Posted by ValarMorghulis As someone with limited Geo-Political knowledge in this aspect, a question to the more knowledgeable folks:
What stops China from invading Taiwan, if Russia invades Ukraine?
US obviously isn't going to interfere in both the places, sine it logically & financially can't. What then? |
In reality, nothing. However the best wars are won with no shots fired. Everyone will calculate the 'Costs Vs Benefits' of the war and the unintended consequences it can produce. This is the only thing that prevents all out wars till ambitions of an over egoistic 'leader' pulls the wool over their own eyes. Quote:
Originally Posted by am1m I'm no history or geopolitical expert, but it seems to me that being a military ally of the US has proved more costly than what it's worth for several smaller countries, being pulled in to wars that didn't make any sense and which proved to have no justification whatsoever in the end analysis, and being used as remote US military bases.
Far better to be a nation that can take a decision independent of either of the blocs or superpowers and based on each issue/situation and whatever works best for our long-term interests. Otherwise it's as bad as being back in the days of the cold war and following idiotic proclamations like "you are either with us or against us". While not a 'superpower' I think we're enough of a country to be able to decide each issue on its merits.
Pretty hard job for any country's diplomats, all these permutations and combinations. But ultimately, hope the axiom that the purpose of diplomacy is to avoid war, any war, holds in this situation! |
Rightly said. One of the former defense secretary of US told once
"It will be initially warm and cozy to be in bed with Uncle Sam enjoying all the attention but once the weight starts crushing in the bed, you will feel the pain and can't even tell it outside or get out of it"
If anyone remembers the recent boycott of Winter Olympic games in China,
has any Western government boycotted the games citing China's aggression towards India? West just found a different reason for the boycott to needle China and we do not have to kowtow any of that. India had a last minute pull out due to a different reason which is the right thing to do. In fact, China got it wrong diplomatically as it would have given them a legitimacy that world's largest democracy has joined the games. |