[mygodbole]

Friends, I know I am going to get a lot of flak for my comments, I still request you to read all of them.

1. War: Not a desired thing anywhere.
2. Nation: Always a home
3: Politics: Duuuh!
4. Team-BHP: A 'Nation' that has no 'Politics' and currently (at least here) at 'War' (with I don't know who, I don't know where).

There are plenty of conflicts (read 'bullets fired, people dead') from Naxals in India to Yemen, to Syria, to Iraq, to Afghanistan, to the drug-wars in central America, to battles in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Chad.

Are Ukraine and Russia from a different planet that they get so much of media coverage?

News agencies have a mantra: "Think Global, Focus Local" but most media have their own puppet masters. So wherever that interest of the puppet master goes, so does the media.

Team-BHP can and MUST comment on ongoing local/national/international issues, but please, let us be biased only towards the vehicles. No verbal, or in this case typed, disagreements. Thanks ... all comments welcome.

[kosjam]

Originally Posted by mygodbole

Friends, I know I am going to get a lot of flak for my comments, I still request you to read all of them.
1. War: Not a desired thing anywhere.
2. Nation: Always a home
3: Politics: Duuuh!
4. Team-BHP: A 'Nation' that has no 'Politics' and currently (at least here) at 'War' (with I don't know who, I don't know where).
There are plenty of conflicts (read 'bullets fired, people dead') from Naxals in India to Yemen, to Syria, to Iraq, to Afghanistan, to the drug-wars in central America, to battles in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Chad.
Are Ukraine and Russia from a different planet that they get so much of media coverage?
News agencies have a mantra: "Thing Global, Focus Local" but most media have their own puppet masters. So wherever that interest of the puppet master goes, so does the media.

Very succinctly put, I am pretty sure the vast majority of the TBhpians reading your comments agree with you. The Yemen wars have been waged for the better part of a decade and nobody is bothered. Media is only after TRP so it is competing against Bollywood/Hollywood. Politics are gutter in every country of this world.



BUT

Originally Posted by mygodbole

Team-BHP can and MUST comment on ongoing local/national/international issues, but please, let us be biased only towards the vehicles. No verbal, or in this case typed, disagreements.
Thanks ... all comments welcome.

This very section of TBhp is made for non vehicle based topics. Every TBhpian knows this, follows the rules, and hence, all opinions and debates are limited to this thread only, which has been made specifically for the topic at hand...

[Samurai]

Originally Posted by mygodbole

Team-BHP can and MUST comment on ongoing local/national/international issues, but please, let us be biased only towards the vehicles. No verbal, or in this case typed, disagreements.
Thanks ... all comments welcome.

Most online communities are based on the concept "Came for the food, stayed for the company". While automotive interests brought us all together, for most of us it is not possible to discuss cars in every post. Not when we are hanging around the forum every day. That is why we have shifting-gears section where members can discuss other things, until they see another car topic of their interest.

When some major event like this happens, plenty of BHPians have varied knowledge and varied opinions, and they really want to share that with fellow BHPians. It is a writer's itch, and that itch must be scratched. That is why we write... When Hyundai-Pakistan tweet happened, it was really just a political tweet from a Pakistan entity, that had nothing to with cars. But when we tried to block it under rule#13, members kept creating new thread on the same topic all day until we allowed it. Now the Ukraine thread is open for the same reason. So say your piece without breaking any forum rules.

[Zigor]

While it's difficult to stand with someone who supports war (and eventually death and destruction), here's a famous Nelson Mandela video that's relevant today.

We need to enhance our capabilities and bolster our defence. A two-front war is very much a possibility for India. All I hope is that Indian leaders remain sensible and think long-term.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6MiRiBtOYIc

Morality is only practical when you can keep your land secure, but it becomes useless if the people who live on that land do not feel safe.

Zigor

[V.Narayan]

All of us including me have become experts on geo-politics. Till yesterday I was an expert on pandemics. As some one who has lost an immediate family member to a war (1971) I do not glamourize it. To that extent my sympathies go out to the helpless ordinary Ukrainians who will lose their loved ones and homes as it does to Russian mothers, wives and children who will lose their loved ones.

Having made my opening preamble a few thoughts...

The Western media is a master at creating the narrative that suits their society/Government and at least some of us on Team BHP believe it.

In Geo-politics you have the stand you take in the public eye. Then there is the more subtle positioning you take with friends who will understand (France in our case here). Then there is the stand you take with the adversary behind six closed doors where both sides show some but not all their cards and say ok here's the deal if...then this...but if...then this etc. Our EAM has walked the thin edge with great tact. It is not for us to fall for Western bullying or threatening of the calamities that might befall us if we don't toe the line {sanctions, exports, CATSA}. You don't win with bullies by giving in to them whether the bully is USA or China or Russia.

An identical situation from recent history -- In December 1979 USSR put enormous pressure on us to vote in their favour at the UN over their dastardly invasion of Afghanistan. We had an even more thin line to walk then. The US threatened us with calamitous sanctions if we voted for USSR. We abstained with reasoning that kept both sides satisfied. That is what geo-politics is - always your own interests first. We don't know what back channel discussions are going on between Russia & USA, between USA and India/China as neutral arbiters and Russia. So what we read in the media is a tip of the iceberg. For example in February 1980, two months after the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, USA accepted that a neutral India served its interests better to keep one more channel of communication open to Brezhnev. In private Mrs. Indira Gandhi expressed utter her horror to Andrei Gromyko {Soviet Foreign Minister} of the atrocities the Soviets were committing in Afghanistan {they had gunned down school girls protesting the invasion} and that this would affect India's stand with them in private. So we as ordinary consumers of the press really don't know what happens behind the scenes.

My uneducated take, like others on this thread have stated, is that Putin will install a regime more favourable to Russia and withdraw. And in 6 weeks another headline will take centre stage. Just because the West is putting pressure on us is no reason to line up with them. Sometimes we line up {Iran} sometimes we don't {Ukraine}. With Russia & earlier USSR what is also at stake is a 69-year old relationship of unbroken trust - trust is a rare gem in geo-politics. It is not to be thrown away just because Biden threatens.

Even China is not always our enemy though on most counts it is. There are issues, like climate change, where we will find ourselves on the same side, matters such as Hong Kong where we will stay neutral and others well known where we will oppose then with vigour.

The first small subtle step of de-dollarization of world trade will be the outcome here. It won't happen dramatically but by osmosis over 10 to 15 years. When you use a weapon too often it loses its edge.

[kkstile]

@V. Narayan sir I was keenly waiting for your incisive post as soon as this thread started. As usual wasn't disappointed. Your have summed up the nature of geopolitical game and India's predicament beautifully.

Jaishankar is handling a very difficult situation with great alacrity and making the right noises. The closed door diplomacy will count more than just the external noises and decide how we'll come out of this situation in the end.

[Nissan1180]

There are reports that ex-NATO soldiers are providing urban warfare suggestions to civilians on Reddit and other forums. Citizens have picked up arms. I’m curious about the long term consequences of this. If this leads to fighter groups inside the country, is this not a long term threat to the stability of the country? Arming civilians and asking them to make Molotov cocktails is dangerous. Afghanistan offers an example of the consequences, with weapons in the wrong hands easily available for nefarious activities.

[SnS_12]

Well the West are coming under lot of understandable pressure to give a strong response to Russia and now are moving to have a SWIFT banking sanction and the measures, which will also include restrictions on the Russian central bank's international reserves.

Russias response to this is their reverse sanctions and they blow up a gas pipeline in Kharkiv. The Russian security council head went ahead and even said the sanctions move is a excellent occasion to review bilateral relations with countries supporting these sanctions. Looks like Russia has planned for every outcome and will use every opportunity to push the West more in a tighter spot. They have already lowered their holdings of US treasury bonds and bought lot of GOLD..

As Energy cost is directly related to inflation the first country to perish in all this i think will be a NATO member Turkey. They were the reason for the Cuban missile crisis as America placed it missiles on their land targeting USSR then. And now with their economy under massive strain and a falling Lira, their borrowing costs are going to get even higher. Plus three gas lines provide Gas to them directly from Russia. Turkey uses gas to generate electricity and the only nuclear power plant under construction in the country Akkuyu Nuclear is built along with Russia and was supposed to be commissioned in 2023 and fill in 10% of their electricity consumption annually.

Nations will soon realise when you have friends like America you don’t need enemies..

[AjinkyaP]

Elon Musk activates Starlink satellite broadband services in Ukraine.

[GrammarNazi]

India's IOC Buys First Russian Urals Crude In 2 Years After Prices Slump

link

Atleast India got some (much needed) cheap crude oil out of this.

PS : Quite a few good perceptions shared here. Have to say that forced conscription of untrained and unwilling citizens, by Ukrainian army is almost as bad as genocide. Putin is no saint either but he did clearly indicate his intentions about a potential war with either Ukraine, or if it joined NATO, a possible nuclear war against Europe, quite a few times earlier. So, this war has prevented a nuclear war IMO.

There's surely going to be a transfer of power, hope it happens with lower violence. When even Taliban cannot impose an inhumane administration, in this day and age, Ukrainians haven't anything close as much to fear.

Also, NATO is nobody's true friend. A lot of their criticism is mere posturing & their reaction shows that they're simply playing to the gallery. India shouldn't look westward for approval, even sub-consciously.

[deetee]

If cornered, even a cat fights back viciously. I wouldn't be surprised if all these sanctions, "SWIFT" ban etc by the West on Russia will back fire eventually. Can't wait to see Dollar loosing its face.
What they should understand is that, to de-escalate the situation, all they need to do is to renounce Ukraine, as simple as that. Even by ethnics, Ukraine doesn't belong to the West, then why bother with something that is not theirs to begin with.
It has become a trend for the US to put fingers into all burning fires and then applying ointment to their burns. It happened with Vietnam and they never ever learnt over all these years.
I am sure, it is going to repeat all over. Sadly Russians and Ukrainians will die because of the fires fueled by selfish interests of the West.

[Simha.k]

My comment here may add little value to the topic of discussion.

America has no permanent friends or permanent enemies. They just have permanent interests.

They armed, funded and supported Osama in the late 80s to drive the Soviets out of Afghanistan and he later became America's most wanted. I don't want to say anything beyond this. It'll open a can of worms.

But remember.. Leaders will shake hands at the end of war. But a mother awaits her son. A wife waits for her husband. A daughter waits for her dad. And we all know their fates. These are not my words. I read somewhere on the internet.

[SnS_12]

Originally Posted by deetee

It has become a trend for the US to put fingers into all burning fires and then applying ointment to their burns. It happened with Vietnam and they never ever learnt over all these years.

True. When was the last time US made a meaningful victory in any war it was involved in?



With Kyiv now cornered from all sides by Russian army, it would be all over by Tuesday mostly. As far as Volodymyr Zelensky is concerned he has no threat to his life as claimed by him in his video message as that doesn’t allign with Russias interest or plans. If it did he would have had his name printed on a Russian missile long back. Russia wants to showcase the world and mainly people of Ukraine that the real enemy is the West and not Russia.

Zelensky in most probability will escape from Ukraine the same way the West is sending in arms to them. The NATO was formed to counter the former USSR. With its collapse their was no need for NATO but still they kept expanding and getting closer to Russia. Putin drew a redline when it came to Ukraine. Imagine Ukraine being a part of NATO and US placing hypersonic missiles which can hit Moscow in 5 mins...

[warrioraks]

Originally Posted by V.Narayan

In Geo-politics you have the stand you take in the public eye. Then there is the more subtle positioning you take with friends who will understand (France in our case here). Then there is the stand you take with the adversary behind six closed doors where both sides show some but not all their cards and say ok here's the deal if...then this...but if...then this etc.

Thank you Narayan sir for the insightful post.

OT: for anyone who wants to see a dramatised version of the quoted part above, watch ‘Madam Secretary’ on Amazon Prime. Specifically the episodes related to NATO, Russia and China.

[digitalnirvana]

Originally Posted by V.Narayan

The first small subtle step of de-dollarization of world trade will be the outcome here. It won't happen dramatically but by osmosis over 10 to 15 years. When you use a weapon too often it loses its edge.

Absolutely agree with this point.

Overnight I see news being pushed that the Russian Federation is about to be barred from SWIFT. That's a HUGE step and basically a financial nuclear first strike.

I still can't believe that Germany has agreed to this, considering most of Europe's gas and energy imports are from Russia. But it appears that the dominos have started to fall.

To put it in context, only Iran is not in SWIFT and see where that has taken them.

It will be a crippling sanction that will force Russia to either trade in RMB (likely) or build bilateral trade lines (possibly) or do an El Salvador and adopt digital currency (unlikely). Whatever they choose, definitely move further away from USD (as it is their reserves are mainly in gold).

Also as usual thanks for your nuanced post. Much needed amidst the rhetoric and hyperbole.