[Gansan]

^^ It may not be easy and may open a Pandora's box. It may not get consensus from all NATO members. It may not be possible to do it any time soon. There are so many imponderables.

But one thing is sure. Russia may even nuke a few NATO members and be nuked in return but won't allow NATO on it's borders.

[PreludeSH]

Its really sad to read about civilians getting killed. I am not sure how West or Ukraine can win or end this war ever. Its Russia which can decide when to end the war and with how much of territory under its control. They can escalate it to more than what they are doing. Not all the might of US or EU with all the advanced weapons can stop them.

Mad people dont worry about their own economy or have shame of blood on their hands. Ukraine lost when the first person was killed and first building was destroyed.

[V.Narayan]

Originally Posted by PreludeSH

Its Russia which can decide when to end the war and with how much of territory under its control.

We can start a war but we can never determine who will control how it will end. The Americans in Vietnam & Afghanistan. The Russians in Afghanistan. Pakistan's attack in December 1971. The Egyptian attack in the Yom Kippur war against Israel in 1973 etc. War is the most uncertain of human endeavours. The mightiest of mighty can kick start a war and yet have almost no control over how it will end, when it will end or who will determine that. Now even if Putin wishes to end this war the Americans won't let him. They will extract their pound of flesh in return for agreeing to a ceasefire.

They can escalate it to more than what they are doing. Not all the might of US or EU with all the advanced weapons can stop them.

Both sides are at an impasse. The Russian organizational depth and morale won't let them progress much and the fear of Russian nukes and escalation prevents the Americans from going the full nine yards. Let's remember stalemates that lasted a long time - US-Vietnam, 10 to 12 years depending on how you count it; US-Afghanistan - 20 years; USSR-Afghanistan 9 years etc.

[goacom]

Originally Posted by nandadevieast

1)
The war will go on for a long long time. West won’t give up. Neither will Russia. Its funny when you think what are the chances of war ending. Zero.

2)
We know now its not a war between Ukraine and Russia. Its US and others vs Russia (and others). West isn’t hiding the fact anymore.

3)
This is a systemic war. Someone is trying to change the world order as we know it. From Unipolar to multipolar. From $ to multiple currencies. To erase all the disadvantages that come with a ruling west and its currency. (Easier said than done).


6)
Climate change, poverty and few other crucial things will take a backseat as old politicians decide whats good for the world. Greed and self-interest will reign supreme. These virtues show up during a crisis. (We saw how rich countries hoarded vaccines last year.)

1), 2) Agree.

3) Debatable. Obviously the Russian and Chinese sympathizers would like to make it look like it is a fight by the underdogs against western domination, but that is of course laughable. Putin and Xi are all about trying to maintain their grip on power for life, because they know that if/when they lose power, they are in deep $hi%t. Putin claimed that the Ukraine invasion (oops Special military operation) was to prevent NATO expansion. Apparently he had no such issue with Finland and Sweden joining NATO! In a similar vein, Xi has been setting himself up for ruling China for life with the similar focus on reunifying democratic Taiwan with the Communist dictatorship in the mainland.

6) In the end, all nations will look after their self-interests first. Astra Zeneca made an agreement with India's Serum institute for it to export low cost vaccines to many countries. However, when India suffered its massive infection spike, India summarily forced Serum Institute to break its foreign contracts and halt all pre-agreed exports to those countries. Western companies in contrast were allowed to maintain their contracts with other countries based on pre-agreed commercial based priorities, no matter what the domestic situation. The claim of moral superiority over the "rich" countries is bogus. It is all about money and financial agreements - not morals. Money is God.

Originally Posted by V.Narayan

We can start a war but we can never determine who will control how it will end. The Americans in Vietnam & Afghanistan. The Russians in Afghanistan. Pakistan's attack in December 1971.

Yes, as always, you have a very good way to presenting reality! This is going to be a battle of endurance and adaption. Each side has their strengths and weaknesses.

The Russians started off disastrously with their debacles in Kiev and Kharkiv. They have since adapted with their slow but steady progress in the east by relying on their heavy artillery superiority. Ukraine has effectively run out of Soviet ammunition and is transitioning to higher quality NATO weapons. However the myriad mixture of western weapons has brought with it support, training and intra-compatibility issues (for example not all 155mm NATO shells are the interchangeable!). Ukraine is now trying to adapt by targeting Russia's ammo depots with precision strikes using the HIMARS and precision guided artillery. Russia will surely attempt to respond to this in some way. We will see.

On the parallel front, the economic war also continues in the background. After the west cut off Russia's reserves, Russia was fortuitous to be able to compensate for this with the rise in energy prices as a result of the post-covid economic recovery that increased demand and thus prices for energy. If there is an economic slowdown/recession as seems to be happening, energy prices will drop yet again and begin to hurt Russia. Russia may try and hurt the west by cutting off natural gas to Europe, but this is also spurring the west to decouple from Russian gas as fast (but not fast enough) as it can.

Finally, there is the factor of time. In WW2, Russia traded land for time (and weather). Today, it may be hoping that the west will lose interest the longer this war goes on, and it may be right. On the other hand, thanks to its full mobilization, Ukraine may be trying to do to Russia, what Russia did to Germany in WW2 - gradually sacrificing territory and stretching Russia's supply lines while it builds up its capabilities and stock of western equipment. Ukraine will continue with the war, even if it means greater casualties on its side as accepting the status quo would mean accepting continued Russian occupation of their land. That is not going to happen.

The bottom line is that the whole situation is unpredictable and Putin's Russia has opened up a can of worms it may not be able to contain!

[download2live]

US mid term elections are coming this November. And Biden is going all out to make sure they perform well. Inflation is a big worry.
They are releasing oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve as part of the efforts to ease oil prices boosted by reactions to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

"Despite the historic release, Western sanctions on Russia, one of the world's largest oil exporters, after its Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine have helped keep crude prices stubbornly above $100 a barrel. The high prices are a risk to President Joe Biden's fellow Democrats in the November elections as they seek to maintain control of both chambers of Congress."

For Germany it has been a difficult time. UK and France are not so much dependent on Russian Energy supplies. They could afford to put in sanctions on Russian energy. Not so with Germany.

Nord Stream 1 Pipeline goes into maintainence. People wondering if it will be a distruption of 10 days as "promised" or more.

"Half of German households rely on gas heating, particularly from October through March and failure to reopen Nord Stream 1 would scupper plans to fill underground gas storage before winter.

The caverns could in theory meet national demand for 2-1/2 months, but are only 64.6% full, compared with an Oct. 1 target of 80%."

There is real chance Russians will try to make sure that the Gas storage is not filled in before the start of winters.

[deetee]

Russia - Ukraine - NATO (USA) affair reminds me of this quote from "The Sum of All Fears " a 2002 movie:

Bill Cabot:
Stability is our concern. Peace in Chechnya is our concern. And, if I may speak frankly, your control over your military concerns us, too.

President Nemerov:
For you to get involved here, its like sleeping with another mans wife... and what you are suggesting is that afterwards they all live together under the same roof... but what really happens is that the betrayed husband goes out and buys a gun.

[dragracer567]

Originally Posted by deetee

Russia - Ukraine - NATO (USA) affair reminds me of this quote from "The Sum of All Fears " a 2002 movie:

Bill Cabot:
Stability is our concern. Peace in Chechnya is our concern. And, if I may speak frankly, your control over your military concerns us, too.

President Nemerov:
For you to get involved here, its like sleeping with another mans wife... and what you are suggesting is that afterwards they all live together under the same roof... but what really happens is that the betrayed husband goes out and buys a gun.

The problem is, you can use the same logic to justify the following:

1) US interventions in Vietnam, Iran and Latin America.
2) US invasion of Iraq
3) US invasion of Afghanistan
4) China invading India in 1962
5) Literally every nasty thing that the Pakistanis have done

Why should the Russians have a monopoly in having the moral authority to address their grievances by invading other countries?

Countries can’t behave like betrayed husbands because once they cross their national borders and resort to using their guns to address their grievances, it’s no longer a ‘Ghar ki baat’.

[Captain Slow]

In the middle of all this did everyone miss the fact that US sold/send oil to china?

https://amac.us/biden-sells-oil-to-china-big-questions/

[deetee]

Originally Posted by dragracer567

The problem is, you can use the same logic to justify the following:
..

Countries can’t behave like betrayed husbands because once they cross their national borders and resort to using their guns to address their grievances, it’s no longer a ‘Ghar ki baat’.

Yes, I very well know that 'that quote' is a double edged sword. That's why I didn't add my opinion on it, just stated it to show that the two major players have been at this many times in the past. One country gets into the aggressive mode to keep up its ego and show the world that it hasn't become weak. The other country could have held back for the sake of greater good , but no - they also want to bolster their ego (and crush the opponent's). So, the history keeps on repeating in one theater or another.

[am1m]

Originally Posted by download2live

Half of German households rely on gas heating, particularly from October through March and failure to reopen Nord Stream 1 would scupper plans to fill underground gas storage before winter.

I met a person from Poland last week who is working in Bangalore and he mentioned that his folks back home aren't looking forward to this winter, they expect it to be a hard one with these energy shortages.

[goacom]

This is meaningless news. Oil is a fungible commodity whose price is set by the overall supply and demand situation, not unlike the purchase of stocks. Furthermore, sale and purchase of oil is also determined by the grade of oil. Some refineries are designed to better process higher sulphur ("sour") oils. The US fracking based production for example produces a lot of low sulphur oil, but a lot of its refineries were set up for high sulphur oils which was a legacy of the time when it used to import oil from other countries (the US is now the world's largest oil producer). As a result, many US refineries have to import this higher sulphur oil instead of using the locally available low sulphur oils. Correspondingly, the US oil producers have to export their fracked oil as a large amount of it is not compatible with the refining infrastructure in the US.

Natural gas on the other hand is (currently) less tradable as it cant be transported as easily. In that case prices vary significantly by local supply and demand conditions. That is why, if and when Europe moves away from Russian gas, Russia will have to make massive investments to build the infrastructure (pipes, LNG etc) to ship its oil to new markets like China. These projects can take as long as 5-10 years. That is why, if Russia were to cut off its gas supplies to Europe this winter, it will also be hurting itself pretty badly.

Europe (aka Germany) plans to completely decouple from Russian gas within 1.5 years. This is when Russia will begin to suffer massive revenue losses as it will not be able to export the majority of its natural gas, even if it wanted to give it for free as there will not be any infrastructure ready to do so! If Russia cuts off gas to Europe this year, countries like Germany will definitely suffer for at least a year. However, it will only serve to accelerate the move away from Russian gas and will encourage countries like Germany to significantly increase military support for Ukraine. Until now, the major European powers (with the exception of UK) have given very lukewarm support to Ukraine.

Originally Posted by Captain Slow

In the middle of all this did everyone miss the fact that US sold/send oil to china?

https://amac.us/biden-sells-oil-to-china-big-questions/

[ankan.m.blr]

Since this thread is on 'Impact of the Russia-Ukraine war', can anyone please enlighten whether this war has any direct or indirect impact on the ongoing crisis situation in Sri Lanka?

[thanixravindran]

Originally Posted by goacom

Natural gas on the other hand is (currently) less tradable as it cant be transported as easily. In that case prices vary significantly by local supply and demand conditions. That is why, if and when Europe moves away from Russian gas, Russia will have to make massive investments to build the infrastructure (pipes, LNG etc) to ship its oil to new markets like China. These projects can take as long as 5-10 years. That is why, if Russia were to cut off its gas supplies to Europe this winter, it will also be hurting itself pretty badly.

Europe (aka Germany) plans to completely decouple from Russian gas within 1.5 years. This is when Russia will begin to suffer massive revenue losses as it will not be able to export the majority of its natural gas, even if it wanted to give it for free as there will not be any infrastructure ready to do so! If Russia cuts off gas to Europe this year, countries like Germany will definitely suffer for at least a year.

How Germany plans to move away from Russian gas in 1.5 years? I am not seeing much clearer picture from the online reports. Because if Russian gas has to be replaced by another one, who is that and whether they can do pipeline within a year? I thought Germany phased out nuclear power like Japan. Or is it completely renewable energy or going back to coal which may upset green brigade there. I thought Europe still buys minuscule coal from Russia. I have read multiple online news but couldn't get any concrete plans. This is a genuine question and not to challenge anything written by you.

[dragracer567]

Originally Posted by thanixravindran

How Germany plans to move away from Russian gas in 1.5 years? I am not seeing much clearer picture from the online reports. Because if Russian gas has to be replaced by another one, who is that and whether they can do pipeline within a year? I thought Germany phased out nuclear power like Japan. Or is it completely renewable energy or going back to coal which may upset green brigade there. I thought Europe still buys minuscule coal from Russia. I have read multiple online news but couldn't get any concrete plans. This is a genuine question and not to challenge anything written by you.

The EU's plan is to replace Russian gas with "The bloc’s proposed gas replacements by the end of 2022 – which include LNG (liquefied natural gas) diversification, renewables, heating efficiency, pipeline diversification, biomethane, solar rooftops and heat pumps". The EU has been negotiating deals with US, Azerbaijan, Egypt, Qatar and Israel for LNG diversification. I must admit that I have very low confidence that the EU can pull this off in 1.5 years, the EU is certainly rich enough to do this but they need to have the willpower and cohesion to pull this off. There will however be a boost in the adoption of renewables, so we have Putin to thank for the possibly expedited decarbonization of the European economy.

The EU should really thank India for keeping oil prices in check by buying oil from Russia, can't imagine what the oil prices would be if India was competing for the same oil from the Middle East right now.

Originally Posted by ankan.m.blr

Since this thread is on 'Impact of the Russia-Ukraine war', can anyone please enlighten whether this war has any direct or indirect impact on the ongoing crisis situation in Sri Lanka?

It is an important factor as Sri Lanka imports most of its food and energy. The Russian blockade of Ukrainian food exports and the unavailability of Russian oil (since I'm told only few countries like India can refine Ural crude) has made both too expensive to import. The crisis is a mix of poor circumstances (2019 Easter bombings, COVID and Russia-Ukraine war) and appalling decisions by the Sri Lankan leadership (huge tax cuts, move to organic agriculture, fertilizer ban etc.)

[PreludeSH]

The biggest impact will be on food. Specifically on Wheat since its ready to be harvested in Ukraine. Russia might use stolen wheat as leverage vis a vis sanctions. Might lead to increase in food prices and hope some better off countries will not increase the cost for others like they are doing for oil related commodities.