[Foxbat]

Seen on Twitter:

Russian fossil fuel purchases, in first 100 days of Russia-Ukraine war:

China: €12.6bn
Germany: €12.1bn
Italy: €7.8bn
Netherlands: €7.8bn
Poland: €4.4bn
France: €4.3bn
UK: €5.9bn

India: €3.4bn

Conclusion: India is financing the war.





Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/24/b...raine-war.html

(Publishsed just yesterday)

[speedmiester]

Originally Posted by Foxbat

Seen on Twitter:

Russian fossil fuel purchases, in first 100 days of Russia-Ukraine war:

China: €12.6bn
Germany: €12.1bn
Italy: €7.8bn
Netherlands: €7.8bn
Poland: €4.4bn
France: €4.3bn
UK: €5.9bn

India: €3.4bn

What else can you expect from the so called liberators and protectors of democracy and especially from a media house which post jobs asking for anti-establishment folks to join them.

[Samurai]

There is a saying in localities that depend on tanker water for daily needs. Don't fight with the tanker water supplier. I know of a case in Manipal where a water tanker driver carelessly bumped into the car of a hotel owner and significantly damaged the car, there was no injuries though. The whole matter was amicably settled keeping the police at bay, because the hotel owner didn't want to disrupt the water supply to his hotel.

And EU went ahead and declared sanctions on their gas supplier...

https://youtu.be/ni45Vzzqzlc

The following is from the YT comments of the video:

EU: We are imposing sanctions on you and we are going to stop using your fuel, gas and coal.
Russia: Okay, we have turned off the supply.
EU: Wait! Not now. We need some time.

[AltoLXI]

And another gem from EU



Link

[DonHyd]

Friends, what when and how would be the end to this war? Ukraine backed by US and Russia backed economically by China, neither seem to be in a mood to back off. While I don't believe this conflict can spiral into a world war or a nuclear war, the chance of that happening is not zero.

[V.Narayan]

Originally Posted by DonHyd

Friends, what when and how would be the end to this war?

Very hard to say. Almost impossible. The only thing one can be sure of are major (but gradual) changes in the world geo-political order caused by this war the the reactions of nations to it. The only other thing one can say is that Ukraine will be reduced to rubble - economically & politically if not literally. As someone said the Americans will bravely (!!!) & remotely fight this war to the last Ukrainian. The Americans want to make Russia impotent once and for all - they won't succeed. The Russians want to sterilize, annex Ukraine - they can't succeed either. The $ has been weaponized at the expense of its own long term detriment. Though this will play out very slowly but very very surely. The disturbance in the status quo of power balances could be exploited in India's favour if we play our cards right.

[DonHyd]

Originally Posted by V.Narayan

The disturbance in the status quo of power balances could be exploited in India's favour if we play our cards right.

Could you please elaborate on this Sir? What should India's foreign policy ideally be? Pardon me if you have already explained it in your previous answers as I have not gone through the entire thread.

[goacom]

Originally Posted by DonHyd

Could you please elaborate on this Sir? What should India's foreign policy ideally be? Pardon me if you have already explained it in your previous answers as I have not gone through the entire thread.

The real question is whether China will benefit from this war. If China gains it will be to the detriment of India.

First as others have stated here, it seems like this war is going to go on for a while, with no side gaining any significant victory. It is looking inevitable that the energy link between Europe and Russia is being severed. Oil flows originally destined for Europe are now increasingly being routed to China and India at roughly a 30% discount. If Russian gas to Europe is cut-off as is looking increasingly likely, Russia will be desperate to find other markets. The cheapest way to export gas is via pipelines. As of now, the existing infrastructure between China and Russia can only take in about 10% of Russian gas exports to Europe. If China is make additional investments to import more Russian gas, it will strike a very hard bargain with Russia. Russia will be desperate and the Chinese know it. If and when this is done, it will ensure China's complete domination in industrial chemicals and materials which will ensure that they put Germany which is currently the leader in this field at a serious cost disadvantage.

China's lock on this will mean they they will control yet another vital industry which will have significant implications for the auto, fertilizer, steel, plastics and ceramics industries.

Strategically, it will ensure that Russia becomes subservient to China. This cant be good for India. China continues to attempt to make inroads into Afghanistan. Russia's manpower limitations and its unwillingness to initiate general mobilization (it is a "special military operation" after all) means that it has to rely on mercenary and Islamic Chechen fighters.

https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/s...61566082109445


It will be interesting to see whether this Russia-China-Islamic alliance lasts. If it does take root, it cant be good for India.

[Foxbat]

Originally Posted by goacom

First as others have stated here, it seems like this war is going to go on for a while, with no side gaining any significant victory.

I wonder if occupying more than 20% of another country and destroying a majority of the enemy's forces counts as a "significant victory"?



Another lesser reported story from the war is online fraudsters collecting publicity and money from gullible people. Here is one of the latest examples:



Source:
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/worl...-b1010201.html


This particular Twitter User had 118,000 followers. Another example how Ukraine is winning the online war.

[V.Narayan]

Originally Posted by Foxbat

I wonder if occupying more than 20% of another country and destroying a majority of the enemy's forces counts as a "significant victory"?

Not commenting on anyone's views but killing innocent others and destroying homes and families can never ever count as a victory though it might seem so for some vicariously sitting far away cheering one side or the other. This applies today to the Russians as it did to the Americans in Iraq, Libya, Vietnam & Afghanistan. My father was severely wounded in the right shoulder in one of India's wars and his younger brother, then 27, serving with the Indian army, was killed in 1971 in the Chhamb sector on literally the last day of that Indo-Pak war. I was witness to the anxiety and grief both caused.

Trust me war seems romantic and powerful only to armchair generals and admirals like us and to politicians all over who cause them. Not needing to fight a war is the best outcome of an effective military and diplomatic policy.

[Turbanator]

USD to EURO is now almost One, Rouble is also strong.

What does it tell relating to war economics? No substitute for Military might?

Most of the European businesses working in US will be in a big negative, car companies and other giants. Everyone would have done calculations based on some exchange rate factor.

For most Indian businesses, buying from EU becomes cheaper vs any other countries selling in USD.

[goacom]

Originally Posted by Foxbat

I wonder if occupying more than 20% of another country and destroying a majority of the enemy's forces counts as a "significant victory"?

Foxbat makes a very good point. In 1941 Germany occupied most of Western Europe and 20% of Russia and won the war that year (lets ignore 1942-45 for this discussion). The root cause of the war was the threat of Ukraine joining NATO and the special military operation was able to halt that and instill fear in the west by stopping any further NATO expansion towards Russia (not including the recent additions of Sweden and Finland).

Today, Russia is in such a strong position in Ukraine that it was able to give back Kiev, Kharkiv and Snake Island as goodwill gestures. With the war almost over, it has now resorted to blowing up over a dozen of its own ammunition depots in the last few days. Russia's incredible victories remind me of the quick US victory over the Iraqi forces in 2003 that resulted in President Bush declaring "Mission Accomplished" on a US aircraft carrier. The peace and prosperity that followed in Iraq were amazing. So yeah, everything looks rosy for Russia. If Kazakhstan, which host's Russia's Baikanour Cosmodrome starts giving Russia problems, as seems to be happing now, I am sure the Russians will take care of them too.

https://eurasianet.org/russia-blocks...or-oil-exports

[nandadevieast]

Now on 137th day, we know few things better than before:

1)
The war will go on for a long long time. West won’t give up. Neither will Russia. Its funny when you think what are the chances of war ending. Zero.

2)
We know now its not a war between Ukraine and Russia. Its US and others vs Russia (and others). West isn’t hiding the fact anymore.

3)
This is a systemic war. Someone is trying to change the world order as we know it. From Unipolar to multipolar. From $ to multiple currencies. To erase all the disadvantages that come with a ruling west and its currency. (Easier said than done).

This war has a long history into making, involving US, NATO and Russia.

Initially it did look like ‘Mad dictator syndrome’. It appeared that it was Putin’s personal war and the trigger being an emotional affinity to the Pan-Russia or USSR of the past.

Doesn’t look like Russian imperialism anymore.

4)
Russia isn’t alone in this. Could be that it was planned.

5)
Being a systemic war means its very different from few semi-localised wars in the past. Afghanistan, Iraq etc. It means that a lot of economic pain is going to come our way. Everyone, those who are involved, and also those who are aloof, may suffer to whatever degree.

6)
Climate change, poverty and few other crucial things will take a backseat as old politicians decide whats good for the world. Greed and self-interest will reign supreme. These virtues show up during a crisis. (We saw how rich countries hoarded vaccines last year.)

7)
China may not veto India out of SC this time Who knows.



Role of media:

I think now people are largely comfortable news being propaganda. These are corporates furthering state policy. Oh the ruthlessness and blatant lies !

I think people know this. And even if they don’t, how does it matter? Most people only read/watch such content for confirmation bias, isn’t it? Nobody can convert the converted

[Gansan]

^^ It sure is not going to end anytime soon. Wait till Sweden and Finland make firm moves to join NATO. Then Russia will surely attack and occupy a small part of each country. Just a small part. For a long long time. Reason? I read there is a technicality that a country can't be admitted into NATO if any part of it is occupied by a foreign power. Same reason why Ukraine can never be admitted into NATO now.

[mvadg]

Originally Posted by Gansan

read there is a technicality that a country can't be admitted into NATO if any part of it is occupied by a foreign power...

But rules can be changed, no?