[download2live]

Originally Posted by goacom

But that would be too overt. The aim is to gradually corrode the Russian economy and military so that it collapses from within, just as the USSR did in 1991. Of course, it could mean that Ukraine is severely destroyed in the process as well, but for the west, that would be an acceptable price to pay.

That is what most of the people have been saying in this thread. Idealism is one thing and reality is another.
Zelensky sleep walked into the trap laid out by the West for Russia.

No matter how media paints it, what we are left with is a devestated Ukraine, millions of displaced people and potential loss of some territory.

Zelensky can give speeches after speeches but it won't change a thing for people of Ukraine.

[goacom]

People seem to have an extreme, almost conspiracy level of overestimation of the west's geopolitical abilities. The major western European nations (in particular Germany) are strongly pacifist and mercantile and had no appetite for war. Likewise, after 20 futile years in Afghanistan, the US was on a retreat from the global military engagements.

Putin was hellbent on annexing the Crimea and parts (if not all) of Ukraine and took the above contexts of an (alleged) weakened west as an opportunity to invade. It is only after Russia's initial failures, that the west grabbed its chance to make it bleed. The west is giving Ukraine just enough aid to severely damage Russia, but not enough to achieve an outright victory. This war will go on for years and the longer it goes, the greater the damage to Russia. The fact that Ukraine will also be severely damaged is incidental.

If there was a trap, it is the Russians who who did it to themselves. Russia can get out of this trap by retreating, but that would almost certainly mean that Putin would lose power. Hence, we can expect this war to go on for a while which suits the west perfectly. Why stop Russia from digging its own grave?

Originally Posted by download2live

That is what most of the people have been saying in this thread. Idealism is one thing and reality is another.
Zelensky sleep walked into the trap laid out by the West for Russia.

No matter how media paints it, what we are left with is a devestated Ukraine, millions of displaced people and potential loss of some territory.

Zelensky can give speeches after speeches but it won't change a thing for people of Ukraine.

[Gansan]

Originally Posted by goacom

This war will go on for years and the longer it goes, the greater the damage to Russia. The fact that Ukraine will also be severely damaged is incidental.

Hence, we can expect this war to go on for a while which suits the west perfectly.

That may not happen. Russians are no fools, they may conquer some territory important for them, probably cut off Ukraine from the sea and then declare a honorable/face saving victory. Perhaps within the next three months.

The war dragging on suits the US, not the entire west. Expect fissures to develop within the EU in the coming months.

[goacom]

Gansan, you are absolutely right that fissures within the EU will happen. You are also correct that Russia will probably call a halt in hostilities after the Donbass battles.

However, I doubt it will be sufficient to lead to any significant cessation of hostilities. The war will move from the east to the south. So long as Ukraine is unable to access its ports, it will need economic support from the west, thus ensuring that the status-quo not being suitable for the west. Hence it will ensure that Ukraine makes Russia's occupation of the south become very painful. The ongoing transfer of MLRS and ground to sea missiles are meant to provide Ukraine with that capability. Conversely, the west is preparing for a long term economic war with Russia. The long term oil and gas contracts with other countries, the withdrawal of much of the west's companies etc will not be easy to reverse even if "peace" is declared.

Just today, the leadership of the African Union accused Russia that it has become a victim of Russia's war. The Russians are tactically very wily and opportunistic and may make deals that offer an illusion of compromise to garner more support. It is thus possible that Russia may try and cut a deal by offering to open up access of the shipping routes to Ukraine in exchange for continued Russian occupation of the territories in the east and may use this as a wedge to diminish support for Ukraine.

All very interesting stuff to watch and learn for all us.

Originally Posted by Gansan

That may not happen. Russians are no fools, they may conquer some territory important for them, probably cut off Ukraine from the sea and then declare a honorable/face saving victory. Perhaps within the next three months.
The war dragging on suits the US, not the entire west. Expect fissures to develop within the EU in the coming months.

[NH08]

Meanwhile, S Jaisankar is exposing the Europe/western nations' duplicity regarding purchase of Russian oil/gas. He was speaking at the GlobSec 2022 Bratislava Forum.

On accusation that buying oil from Russia by India was funding the war, he said:

Is buying Russian gas not funding the war? It’s only Indian money and oil coming to India that funds it, but not the gas coming to Europe? Let’s be a little even handed out here.

And -

If countries in Europe and the West and the US are so concerned, why don’t they allow Iranian oil to come into the market? Why don’t they allow Venezuelan oil to come into the market? They have squeezed every other source of oil we had and now they say not to get the best deal for your own people. I don’t think that’s a fair approach.

Interview

[Foxbat]

Seems to be a slight change in opinion.



https://nypost.com/2022/06/03/biden-...e-russia-land/

President Biden on Friday declined to rule out Ukraine having to cede part of its territory to Russia in order to end Moscow’s more than three-month-old invasion.

“Does Ukraine have to cede territory to achieve peace?” a reporter asked Biden after his remarks on the May jobs report.

“From the beginning, I’ve said and I’ve been — not everyone’s agreed with me — nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine,” Biden began his answer. “It’s their territory. I’m not going to tell them what they should and shouldn’t do.

[thanixravindran]

Multiple News reports about Russian oil becoming the second biggest oil import in May for India. With the inflation raging all over the world and if it helps to keep the pump prices controlled with discounted Russian oil, Why not? https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-60783874 (Quoting BBC to avoid quoting dubious sources as BBC is the 'Self anointed Gospel of Truth').

Excerpt from the article -

US State Department official Amos Hochstein has said that he told Indian officials not "to look like you're taking advantage of the pain that is being felt in European households and in the US".

Definitely Amos, while we are trying to relieve the pain in Indian households, we urge all the parties involved for a peaceful resolution of the situation at the earliest and will keep the impacted in our thoughts.

With the oil import of CIS countries at 20% and possibility of transaction of Rouble/Rupee now talked more than ever, another significant news is the pilot operation of INSTC - International North South Corridor through Iran, another sanctioned country. Again Chabahar Port is exempted from US sanctions.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com...w/92189350.cms

This would not have gone unnoticed in the Western press and expect more preaching in the coming days.

[download2live]

Originally Posted by thanixravindran

US State Department official Amos Hochstein has said that he told Indian officials not "to look like you're taking advantage of the pain that is being felt in European households and in the US".


This would not have gone unnoticed in the Western press and expect more preaching in the coming days.

India and China proved to be the place where calculations went awry for the West. Like Putin did not expect such a united response from West similarly West did not expect India and China to keep buying (in fact increase the volumes) up the Russian oil.

Now that the US inflation figures are out and 75 point increase in interest rates by Fed imminent, things are going to get uncomfortable for West too.

Ukraine allies are looking for a quick end to hostilities. As for Russians, I guess they have a historical capacity to bear hardships.

[Foxbat]

The level of propaganda on YouTube is simply unbelievable, this video has almost 1 Million views in 22 hours and thousands of comments happily cheering the dead Russians:

Huge fireball explosion as Russian helicopter gunship is DESTROYED by Ukraine forces in Donetsk

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HCYE7vylejQ

Both Russia and Ukraine operate Mi-24 helicopters but only Ukraine operates them in white with some black arounds the exhausts like this for UN missions:




What actually happened, 3k views and 79 comments:

Ukrainian air defense shot down their Mi-24 helicopter

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qi08G48GqzU

A typical user will take the video at face value and think another great victory for Ukraine.

[V.Narayan]

Originally Posted by Foxbat

.....this video has almost 1 Million views in 22 hours and thousands of comments happily cheering the dead Russians:

Foxbat, thank you for sharing this. Trust you to do this in-depth research. :-)

All,

This is what is both sad and disturbing about the "social media-ification" of war. It is a video game for social media warriors and spectators. Regardless of which sides pilots died in that gruesome fireball each of them was some mother's child. Give a thought to how terrifying and painful must it be to be consumed in a fireball. How are we any better from the Roman spectators cheering & watching people being fed to the lions.

[Gansan]

There are some western Youtube channels. If their reports of daily Russian losses are taken at face value, the Russian airforce should have lost all the planes and the Russian army all it's equipments and men, the Ukrainians should have won the war long back.

[goacom]

While I'm sure that the Russian/Chinese propaganda would want to suggest that the Ukrainians shot down their own helicopter, their argument of it being white/black is well, not so black and white either.

The video suggests a lighter color front nose, with a continuous black rear, which is different from the Ukranian aircraft that only has the engine exhaust painted in black.

What we are in reality just seeing are some shadow affects. It is understandable that the Russians would want to deny this loss, after all, they even refuse to tell the mothers of their dead soldiers that their children are dying in their "not a war", aka Special Military Operation.

Russia is definitely having the upper hand right now, thanks to high oil prices and their slow and steady gains in the Donbass region. Will the west supply the large quantities of long range weapons that Ukraine needs to push the Russian invaders? I dont know. The French and Germans are definitely waffling.

Originally Posted by Foxbat

The level of propaganda on YouTube is simply unbelievable, this video has almost 1 Million views in 22 hours and thousands of comments happily cheering the dead Russians:

Huge fireball explosion as Russian helicopter gunship is DESTROYED by Ukraine forces in Donetsk

https://www.Youtube.com/watch?v=HCYE7vylejQ

[AltoLXI]

Got this nicely made informative Venn diagram on Politico.

[download2live]

Russian discounted oil has found big buyers in China and India. "Hopefully" it will help to take the edge off the steep inflation curve in India.

A peaceful resolution looks far fetched now that Russians are able to "somewhat" make up for the lost European markets. All eyes on the West if they can influence Zelensky.

Some excerpts from the article:

China’s crude oil imports from Russia up 55% in May compared to a year earlier, displacing Saudi Arabia as top supplier.

Imports of Russian oil include supplies pumped via the Eastern Siberia Pacific Ocean pipeline and seaborne shipments from Russia’s European and Far Eastern ports.

The new Chinese customs data comes four months into the war in Ukraine as buyers from the United States and Europe shun Russian energy imports or have pledged to slash them over the coming months.

Analysts say Asian demand is helping to staunch some of those losses for Russia, especially buyers from China and India.

India bought six times more Russian oil from March to May compared with the same period last year, and imports by China during that period tripled, data from research firm Rystad Energy shows.

According to the International Energy Agency’s latest global oil report, India has overtaken Germany in the last two months as the second largest importer of Russian crude.

[AltoLXI]

Originally Posted by download2live

Russian discounted oil has found big buyers in China and India. "Hopefully" it will help to take the edge off the steep inflation curve in India.

As you mention - how much it helps Indian consumers is still a question. Looks like Reliance and Nayara are buying crude at discount from Russia, refining and selling to western consumers by reducing domestic sales. State refiners however are still bearing the brunt of the rising crude costs.

Link

Once EU companies block insurance and financing the transport, Russia might find it difficult to sell crude.

Link