[aim120]

So some of the arm chair generals are fine in civilians being used as human shields. All the maripul residents interviews which show Ukraine's military in bad light is conveniently swept under the rug.

All the war crimes since 2014 in ukraine is completely ignored.

Some of the most horrific tortures one can describe have been caught on camera.

West only wants to weaken russian, even if it means every ukraine citizens will have to pay with his life.

Not condoning Russian invasion or civilians deaths due to this. One simple guarantee before feb 24 would have stopped this war dead in the tracks.

There 2 sides to a story. One side is suppressed while the other side is given a free pass, overlooking any and all war crimes, civilian deaths and misery.

The fact that some members here, selectively like posts of only western narrative and then go on to claim that others are celebrating ukraine citizens misery and destruction, while completely ignoring the same misery of Ukraine's living in eastern ukraine caused by Ukraine and other war crimes.

I do not past graphic stuff because I do not have the stomach for it. But don't tell me that I ignore human suffering or for that matter any animal suffering.

Mod Note - Please be respectful to fellow members while replying.

[vishnurp99]

Originally Posted by RadixLecti

I would like to ask: How many of you have ever met a Russian or a Ukrainian? I am in the merchant navy, and my company employs several hundred Ukrainians, and a smaller number of Russians. ..
What I am getting at is this: Real human beings are losing their lives, their livelihoods, their patrimony, and their families. They are not plastic tokens in a life-size game of Risk. May I suggest that you take a break from using this thread as a way to project your hatred (or love) of the West, NATO, and the USA, and spare a thought for them instead?

@RadixLecti, Thank you for such an elaborate and from the heart post. I respect your sentiments. However I disagree with an imputation that you seem to make that I have highlighted in bold. I reject that posters on this thread are not seriously concerned with the humanitarian aspects of the Ukraine situation.
Having said that, lots of posters have questioned the western narrative around how the Ukraine situation was wholly and solely an outcome of the fight between democracy & autocracy, light vs dark, good vs evil narrative. Lot of background has been shared about how the Ukraine situation started. The war didn't start in Feb 22. It's been going on around from 2014 onwards.
By the way, I am no expert on Ukraine but I have learned from a lot from the material that has been shared on this thread like J. Mearshimer's session from 2015. Neither did I know about blockage of Crimean fresh water canal which impacted 2.5 Million people, blocked their access to fresh water and resulted in wholesale destruction of Farmland, Industry etc in that area.
Finally I share this snapshot of Ukranian presidential results from 2010. This is the guy who was overthrown in 2014 Maidan protest. Note that his support was primarily coming from the Russian speaking regions towards the east. Remember the 1971 war in Pakistan where the trigger for Bangladesh civil war was refusal of western Pakistan to accept the majority government from Bengali speaking eastern government. Could there have been a similar situation in Ukraine from 2014 onwards when the government which was ruling with support from Eastern Ukraine was overthrown. Note that the Kiev region fell on the Ukrainian side. I would have never known about this if I followed the discussion in western media outlets. I got all of this from a J. Mearshimer video and he is by all accounts a well respected political scientist. Please share any insights that you may have on this topic since you are well-informed because of your interactions.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_U...ntial_election
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_U...0%D1%85-en.png

Originally Posted by V.Narayan

^^^^^
Thank you, RadixLecti for one of the most sensible posts on this otherwise hate filled thread. Far too many of our arm chair Generals are venting their anger around Western duplicity and lies (Afghanistan , Iraq, Libya etc) on the hapless Ukrainian civilians as if they are to blame for American crimes in other countries. I brought this point up once or twice and then gave up. The vicarious sense of power that comes from being an arm chair warrior triumphs any sense of basic human decency. As I've said earlier, give a man a mask and he'll show you his true self. Here the handles are the masks.

Dear V.Narayan, I have always found your posts really insightful. However I don't agree with your contention that this is a hate-filled thread. This is just my opinion though and there may have been a few posts which may have crossed the line but in general I have found the thread to be really informative at least for me. In fact some of our members actually anticipated that Rubble will not become Ruble at least immediately. Kudos to all of the posters for that.
By the way, I concede that I am an armchair analyst (an amateur one at that!). Most of us are in my opinion. Asking critical questions around the narrative that is floating around in western publications like NYT, FT & BBC & some Indians ones and trying to make sense why the entire world is being pushed to Nuclear Armageddon should not be limited only to generals or even soldiers who have fought in wars.

Originally Posted by Ragavsr

I believe that lot of the pro Russian commenters haven't seen war up close. ...
There is a lack of awareness of what wars do the vulnerable - the women, children, elderly. The sexual violence women face in wars , words can't describe that.

Dear Ragavsr, I agree with you that War is a dirty business. Professional armies try to keep civilians away from the theatres. However all of us can imagine the toll that it may take on the populations involved when armies decide to fight in urban areas. I don't see why you believe only the pro-russian commenters have not seen the war up close. In my opinion, most commenters on this thread has not seen the war up close and I am really thankful for that!. In fact, I would even question the definition of pro-russian commenters on this thread. After all we are Indians. Why do you think people will have a pro-russian bias in this forum? After all, most folks on team-bhp will have worked with westerners extensively while very few like Radixlecti may have worked with Russians & Ukranians. Just because people ask critical questions around the western narrative around the cause of the Ukraine situation and the current war situation on the ground shouldn't get them the tag of pro-putin , russian leaning individuals.

[V.Narayan]

Dear Vishnurp99,

Thank you for your post above. I defend your right to have your point of view just as I know you will respect my right to my point of view. From what I have seen of your posts I believe you are a sensible, mature, decent, well-read person. While you and I'm sure others may not think that some of the posts have more hate and glee over the sufferings of others at least one man in late middle age does believe that is so. Might be I'm in a minority of one, so be it.

All,

At any point in time there are two dozen serious points of disagreement and potential confrontation between nations across the globe. Sensible nations try to use diplomacy+ economics + geo-politics + cunning to resolve them. Some also use the sheer passage of time*. Just because you have a serious disagreement does not mean conquering and laying waste another country is a solution. It is never a solution. It is always a seed for a fresh set of problems. The Americans have been the worst and most egregious violaters of this and it is costing them in the violence within their own society which is at least in part a reflection of the violence they have heaped on others.

NATO was misbehaving, without a doubt. They were displaying acute insensitivity, without a doubt again but that does not mean attacking Ukraine in 2022 and capturing Crimea in 2014 were the only solutions. Diplomatic means in its broadest sense offer more routes to partial or full success than military action {ask the Americans!!}

China has had an issue about Taiwan since 1949. Similarly India has had its issue over Kashmir since 1947. For both nations these are very very fundamental matters. Yet both nations have thus far exercised restrain and tried to resolve through non-violent means while retaining the option to use military action. Both have displayed real maturity in geo-politics and a deep understanding that some aims need decades to solve the right way and the permanent way. So there was, in my opinion, nothing inevitable about Putin starting this war. Unfortunately he has not shown wisdom greater than NATO. And Russia I suspect is now a one man Government and being denied the wisdom when you have a real cabinet.

NATO moved East geographically but more than that East European nations moved West geo-politically and economically. Russia felt threatened, Poland etc felt protected, the Americans gloated, the Ukrainians got confused. Both the Americans and the Russians manipulated who forms the Govt in Ukraine! In foreign affairs what is right or wrong depends on where you stand and watch the situation from.

*Examples abound. Two are the unification of West and East Germany, c.1992; the Egypt- Israel Camp David peace treaty, 1979; the Irish-UK Easter Agreement, 1998.

[skanchan95]

https://theaviationist.com/2022/04/3...ally-debunked/

Stop Spreading Fake News: The Ghost Of Kyiv Is A Legend’, Ukrainian Military Says

April 30, 2022 DAVID CENCIOTTI

Some claims about the “Ghost of Kyiv” that went viral lately and other recent “urban legends” were just officially debunked.

“Hero of Ukraine" Major Stepan Tarabalka, is NOT “Ghost of Kyiv” and he did NOT hit 40 planes. This is one of the most interesting statements included in an official statement shared on social networks by the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The post, was published in the afternoon European time on Apr. 30, 2022, and appears to be a response to the reports that started to circulate on British media outlets on Apr. 29.

Citing Ukrainian sources, The Times was the first to report that a Ukrainian Air Force pilot, Maj. Stepan Tarabalka, 29, a father of one, shot down while flying a MiG-29 on Mar. 13, 2022, was the legendary “Ghost of Kyiv”, a fighter pilot who shot down “more than 40 Russian aircraft”.

We first reported about the legend of the “Ghost” on Feb. 25, shortly after the Russian troops had started their invasion of Ukraine and the news a mystery pilot who singlehandedly shot down “six Russian aircraft” in a matter of few hours, had gone viral.

According to social media posts, one day into the war, the “Ghost of Kyiv” had become the first air combat ace over European soil since World War II, achieving the ace-in-a-day (shooting down more than five enemy aircraft) status. As we explained back then, the legend started with a series of three tweets showing a lone Ukrainian fighter jet operating over the capital, which were retweeted thousands of times. The Spanish newspaper Marca was among the first to claim that the Ghost of Kyiv had downed the six aircraft. Among his alleged kills, the Ghost initially claimed no less than two Russian Sukhoi Su-35s, a Russian Su-27 Flanker, a Russian MiG-29 and two Russian Su-25 ground attack aircraft.

Even the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense posted about the Ghost, retweeting footage of a MiG-29 fighting a Russian aircraft in what was later revealed to be a video recorded in the flight simulator DCS World. Former Ukrainian president, Petro Poroshenko, posted on Twitter a photo of a fighter pilot, claiming it to be the real Ghost of Kyiv. Obviously, there is no way to confirm his real identity and his air-to-air kills, but for many the one from the former president appeared to turn a wild urban legend into reality.

However, since the very beginning, the story didn’t add up: as we clearly explained in our first post on the “Ghost”:

There’s only one catch: there probably is no “Ghost of Kyiv” and this internet legend is probably not true.

The legend of the “Ghost of Kyiv” is almost certainly an example of bizarre distortions and manipulations of fact or near-fact that are amplified during the chaos of war, especially a new war during the opening hours. These legends sometimes have at least some basis in fact, but as they travel through language barriers and across borders at the speed of light via social media, they become embellished, retransmitted and retweeted as “news”. There may have been Ukrainian air-to-air victories in the opening day of the war. There may have even been six total, or some other number. But the likelihood that six of these alleged aerial victories belongs to a singular, gallant “ace-in-a-day” is remote.

Despite the lack of evidence, many people claimed that the Ghost existed and kept fighting Russian jets, while many started to believe the “Ghost” was probably just a legend, that had become the worldwide emblem of the Ukrainian resistance, a moral-booster as well as the main character of many interesting artworks.

While stories about the “Ghost of Kyiv” have emerged every now and then after the first week or so of the war, the prevailing theory was that the mysterious pilot was just a legend that could give Ukrainian people hope, pride and desire to fight, acting as an example of bravery and love for the motherland to follow. Until the existence of the legendary pilot was allegedly supported by some Ukrainian sources cited by The Times and by various British tabloids immediately thereafter.

In the end, even the official Ukrainian accounts have had to post an official statement to respond to such reports that could probably damage the reputation and credibility of Kyiv’s military along with its past and future claims.

The post by the Ukrainian military roughly translate as follows:

❗️ PLEASE DO NOT FILL THE INFO SPACE WITH FAKES❗️
———————————-
Once again, we ask the Ukrainian community NOT to ignore the basic rules of information hygiene, not to issue the desired one as valid, check the sources of information before spreading it.
❗️ Hero of Ukraine Stepan Tarabalka is NOT “Ghost of Kiev” and he did NOT hit 40 planes.
On March 13, 2022, Major Stepan Tarabalka was heroically killed in an air battle with the dominant forces of the Russian occupiers. Here’s the information about him on the official website of the KPSU: https://www.facebook.com/kpszsu/posts/339462291555059
Ghost of Kiev is a superhero-legend whose character was created by Ukrainians! This is a faster collected image of pilots of the 40th Air Force tactical aviation brigade, who protect the sky of the capital. What suddenly appear where they are not expected!
❗️ Military pilots are not yet studying abroad on F-16, as much as we all want it.
No official statement on this matter has been published in the media!
❗️ Well, and lastly, for especially creative – American bombers do not fly over Ukraine either!
Keep calm and use official sources of information.
���� Glory to Ukraine!
�� Public Relations Service Command Air Force Armed Forces of Ukraine

In other words, Maj. Stepan Tarabalka was a hero pilot who was killed in action on Mar. 13, 2022, but he did not shot down 40 Russian aircraft.

The post also addressed some other recent claims, as the one that Ukrainian pilots would be training on F-16s in Germany or that American bombers would be flying over Ukraine.

Therefore, as explained at the beginning of the war, the “Ghost of Kyiv” was a still is a meme, a collective image of all Ukrainian fighter pilots who bravely fight against Russian Aerospace Forces aircraft over Ukraine: a symbol rather than an actual pilot, no matter what some media outlets speculate.

While it was widely accepted that the Ghost of Kiev was an urban legend, it is the first time that it has been officially debunked by the Ukrainian Air Force.

The sacrifices of Col. Oksanchenko and Major Tarabalka are well known which proves that the Ukrainian Air Force has put up a spirited fight against all odds in Defence of their homeland. It is also known that Ukrainian jets have managed to shoot down Russian aircraft during the air battle over Kiev. There exists atleast one video where a low flying MiG-29 launches an R-73 against a helicopter and there is a Ukrainian MiG-29 with three kill marks painted on it. There may be more but the true and heroic story of the Ukrainian side of the Air War will possibly be known after the war ends.

[ashokabs]

Much of what is referenced in this thread and similar ones on the net are from questionable sources. It is accepted that both the Russians and the Ukrainians are circulating a lot of videos and photos for propaganda. I doubt if any of us are in a position to verify or certify that the information we are quoting is genuine. Only a few reputed magazines, journals and newspapers are authenticating the information they publish. That is why it is a fruitless exercise.

[skanchan95]

Originally Posted by ashokabs

I doubt if any of us are in a position to verify or certify that the information we are quoting is genuine. Only a few reputed magazines, journals and newspapers are authenticating the information they publish. That is why it is a fruitless exercise.

In war, that will always be the case and in the fog of war, there will always be exaggerations.

Let me quote examples - then S/L M M Alam famously claimed that he had shot down four (may be five) IAF Hunters in less than a minute during the '65 war which was debunked much later.

Recently during the IAF-PAF aerial skirmish in Feb 2019, I clearly remember one of our own news channels stated initially that a Su-30MKI had been shot down, another claimed it was a MiG-21 that was shot down and "two" IAF pilots had been captured. It was proven later that a Bison went down, not a Su-30.

The Chinese have still not accepted or revealed the true number of soldiers they lost during the Galwan clashes. Similarly, Russia might never accept that they lost the Moskva to Ukrainian anti-ship missiles and insist they it was an onboard explosion that led to the sinking.

Therefore, leaving the photos and propaganda aside, the truth of claims and counter claims of the Ukraine war will only be known after the war or may never to known at all.

Even though, I might not agree to what someone has posted, it is always interesting to read another point of view as I believe there are two sides to a story and both must be read to get a picture of what is going on. Some posts in this thread are truly enlightening and have been a treat to read while some disrespectful ones I have studiously avoided. In the end, it is one's choice to read what is written in this thread but to ask it to be closed just because one doesn't agree with it is a bit over the top( I say this with due respect to you and no malice is intended) because it has been a fascinating thread so far(information wise).

[AltoLXI]

War and peace...



and the discussions around it...

[Old_Salt]

So, joined a ship lately where some Ukrainains are serving.

Curious cases, they don't want to go back home as they may be forced to fight as they fall in 18-60 category.

Lack of finances is another issue which is forcing them to continue at sea.

The Chief Engineers daughter was 9 months pregnant when they fled from Odessa and had delivered the baby in a tunnel.

They have since managed to first stop over at Romania and now are in Bulgaria.

Another colleague of ours, was shot dead two weeks ago when he ventured out to get water for his family.

Although there is no evidence to support the statement, however the Ukrainians claim that there is support from external forces on the ground, although offially nor the NATO or US has confirmed that, nor they will.
This could possibly explain how the Ukrainian forces have been able to withstand the assualt, even though at the start of war the scenario presented was that they could barely manage to hold fort for some days.

My reason to share the two incidents is just to give some perspective. We can see them physically present on board but mentally stressed 24/7, not knowing what tomorrow will bring.

[aim120]

Russia has allowed India to continue paying in Euro or dollars for crude Oil. While the rest of the russia- India trade will be done in rupee-ruble.

So I can think of couple of reasons for this, Last month US state department spokesperson of Indian origin was telling reporters, that India should not undermine the dollar and also prop up the ruble, followed by Sec Blinken visit a few days back.
So this keeps uncle sam happy. Russia also cannot use the rupee that they get since there will be a massive trade imbalance, with little to buy from India.

India would probably use rupee to get russian military hardware, spares etc. Other stuff like cooking oil.

So India is again balancing its relation.

[v1p3r]

Originally Posted by RadixLecti

What I am getting at is this: Real human beings are losing their lives, their livelihoods, their patrimony, and their families. They are not plastic tokens in a life-size game of Risk. May I suggest that you take a break from using this thread as a way to project your hatred (or love) of the West, NATO, and the USA, and spare a thought for them instead?

I bow to you. You echo my sentiments, and those of most rational, humane and compassionate people. Sadly, not everyone is so.

Originally Posted by Ragavsr

I believe that lot of the pro Russian commenters haven't seen war up close.

Dude, some of them haven't even left their parents homes yet.

The only net positive to come out of this entire fiasco is our MEA and SJ proving themselves a class act.

I think the moderators should look into closing this thread, seeing as how some of the Putinistas have resorted to calling other members names and displaying abhorrent attitudes towards human suffering.

[aim120]

Originally Posted by v1p3r

I think the moderators should look into closing this thread, seeing as how some of the Putinistas have resorted to calling other members names and displaying abhorrent attitudes towards human suffering.

Can you name one person here who was condoning human suffering.

Name calling? Is Putinistas a example for it.

The very first example in this thread, who started calling out others various names, just because they share the side that you don't fancy or see in the media or social media. They where called putin apologists, putin sympathizers, communists.

Why the hate for some one, who has another point of view.
This the same problem happening every where in the world. If you question the narrative in the US, even Tulsi Gabbard was called a Russian agent, traitor etc.

If you are a journalist who question the narrative, that's treason.

This is what Elon musk wants to stop, but current US administration is getting a truth agency and trying to stop it with a multi prong approach with more obstacles.

This thread also highlights many of the fake news, that is yet to be corrected by the western media.

I also learn new info here, every other day.

[Poitive]

Somewhat OT, in a sense; but not really:

Mates, sharing some thoughts as one of the many fairly regular posters on this thread. Once again, I will be less precise to convey a broad sense of things. In some senses, this could also be seen as a continuation of this post.

Besides face to face interactions, communication of ideas, thoughts, hypothesis, news-events etc happens with varying levels of control over what is said. It could range from:

1. Government releases - press releases, notifications, etc.
2. Edited sources: TV Channels, Newspapers, Online News and Opinion sites, and the like.
3. Moderated Forums
   1. Ones a bit difficult to get into and people care for the forum.
   2. Ones easy to register and with little cost of getting banned.
4. Close to free-for-all within some broad confines such as Twitter, and Facebook.

No. 1 and 2 clearly have value, especially in terms of being aware of events. Also to consider popular views, and what the public at large is being fed.

No. 2 is also much prone to the editorial bent the outlet has. While it has a good signal-to-noise ratio, it is often signal of a particular kind. One can limit one's self to one kind of signal and have a firm view of the world reinforcing one's earlier beliefs (for details refer to above linked post).

No. 4 is often a lot of noise. It is useful for getting a general idea of what narrative each side in an issue is trying to push across. They can also be sources of a whole lot of new ideas, events and opinions one might not have known or considered (I like Twitter for this). Running through a large number of them allows one to then apply one's mind to see what makes sense and what doesn't. If one is open-minded enough, it can also be a wonderful space to view the same stuff differently and broaden one's horizons.

The Issue with 1 and 2 is that they aren't really interactive.

No 4 is highly interactive, but the quality of interaction is often poor and easily slides. It leaves a very poor signal-to-noise ratio, more so as IT cell teams and other 'motivated' people are at work there trying to influence opinion and suppress some ideas and spread others.

No. 3.2 - i.e. forums where the cost of poor behaviour is little - too suffer from issues such as No. 4 above.

Now on to the one most relevant in this case - No. 3.1: In this vast communication space in today's hyper-connected world, a well moderated forum where people do need to care about their behaviour is a delight. IMO it has a valuable balance between control and free expression of ideas, thoughts, and opinions.

This balance is important.

If we take offence too easily to points of view which don't match with ours, we are doing a disservice to what the forum potentially provides. Such a space allows one to express views at ample length, in a civilized manner under watchful eyes. Also a bunch which is usually well behaved and considerate.

While I too might have found some posts over the top and manner bordering on rudeness, I felt it better to ignore them. What I have noticed on social media is that at times, people make over the top statements only to get noticed and get into arguments, and to ignore them is better than engaging in futile draining exercise. There have been times, when I felt the urge to reply too, and have tired to do so with gentleness and reason.

I have believed for long that one learns little from one who completely agrees with you (it is like an echo), and there is much potential to learn from those who have a different point of view, especially if they are willing to elaborate and explain those in a dignified manner. Let us use that opportunity to grow.

If this sounds preachy, please allow me this indulgence.
Please consider:
- Let us not get offended too easily.
- Let us be mindful of the words and tone we use. It often triggers an cyclic reaction of increasing harshness.
- Let us specifically avoid derogatory names to groups of people supporting either/any side; even in subtle ways.

IMO, this thread has much to offer, and we should collectively try to keep it on track by self-regulation, ignoring some posts, and if at all we feel the extreme need to respond due to feeling much offence then to do so in a gentle and gracious manner, without succumbing to the urge of thumbing down the other. It would be much appreciated.

Doing so would also not feel disrespectful to the lives destroyed in the cruelty which accompanies a war; any war.

[hangover]

Neutral Switzerland is trying its best to prevent escalation of the conflict.

You may have read that Germany is supplying 50 Gepard anti aircraft gun tanks to Ukraine.

But they require a specific type of 35 mm ammunition. Only made in Switzerland. One with a belt groove.

The Swiss by law do not supply weapons to nations in the middle of conflict.



https://newsbeezer.com/switzerlanden...ard-tank-news/

[goacom]

The Russian/Chinese sympathizers will obviously choose to blame NATO/USA for this conflict, while those aligned with the west will put the blame on Russia. I am obviously on the latter side. It is pointless discussing this aspect of the conflict. However, we can continue with discussions on potential consequences and senarios of this on-going war.

To me this is the summary of the situation so far:

1) Russia hoped for a quick victory by trying to topple the government in Kiev. After it failed to do that, it has focused on a) occupying the Donbass area in the east and b) securing a land bridge to Crimea c) cutting off all sea access for Ukraine and linking up with Transnistria in Moldova.

2) The situation in the Donbass is currently a race between Russian and Ukraine on who can build up their forces the fastest. For Ukraine the challenge is to transport and incorporate/familiarize all the new weaponry it has been receiving from formerly Russian occupied countries like Poland, Czech, Solvakia , the Baltic states as well as the US/UK and the west in general.
For Russia, the challenge is to reconstitute its forces that were badly damaged and demoralized after their Kiev failure. While Russia has failed to make any significant progress here, the epic battles that have been predicted, may yet still happen.

3) To me, the real battles may actually be in the south along the coast. Control of this area is critical for both countries. For Ukraine, loss of the coast would mean an economically crippled nation that will have had the bulk (~60%) of its export routes cut off. Ukraine's wheat and cooking oil exports are mainly channeled through the sea. The rail routes through Poland etc will not work as efficiently due to higher costs, lower capacity and practical logistics issues like differences in rail gauges. For Russia, victory here will result in securing its hold of Crimea as well as the possibility of annexing Transnestria and therefore potentially Moldova. It would also leave Ukraine economically crippled and a thus a long term economic burden on the west.

So far, Russia continues to make slow but steady progress here and even if something like the status quo remains it could be a construed as a victory for Russia as it could still attempt to impose a naval blockade on Odessa and cripple Ukraine's sea routes.

This would effectively mean higher prices for many food items which will impact the poorer countries around the world. Oil prices would also remain high due to much of Russian oil capacity being pulled out of the market (China and India do not have the infrastructure to import surplus Russian oil and may also already be locked in with long term contracts with other OPEC members).

I therefore expect the pivotal battles will happen in this southern coastal region rather than the west. Ukraine will have no choice but to escalate the war in the south. That is in fact one reason why the outgunned Ukrainian forces in Mariupol seem to be continuing the fight to the bitter end - in any case, they probably don't have any choice as the Russians would probably accuse them of being Nazis and then execute them.

For Ukraine to continue the war, it would need even more military support from the anti-Russian alliance, which it seems is all but certain. For Russia, it will mean the massive economic and military burden of supporting this war against a much more economically powerful alliance and against a foe that is willing to fight to the death to regain its land. Still, it will be very difficult for Ukraine to make progress here as the Russian forces will be heavily entrenched and fortified by then. In other words, this could be a long war.

There are some wild card scenarios that could end this war rather quickly and they all focus on Putin. In the end the decision to start and end the war lands on his feet. One possibility is that he may just die due to some illness. Most of the recent videos suggest that he has gained a lot of weight, has a puffy appearance and has problems with his right hand (Parkinsons?). Alternatively, he may be disposed off by his own leadership. The expectation, even from Russia's own sources is that the economic situation will get considerably worse once the current supply chain of material runs out and when the EU imposes an oil embargo (starting in the next few weeks) and finally gas (by 2023).

Finally, I have not brought up the nuclear option. Russia (and I would say the US/Canada/Australia) have the advantage of landmass and distance. There is also a belief that the level of operationality of the Russian nuclear forces may be much lower than that of the west, which would thus put the US at an advantage. Still, this is something that we will hopefully never have to content with, as humanity as a whole would lose.

[AltoLXI]

Originally Posted by goacom

There are some wild card scenarios that could end this war rather quickly and they all focus on Putin. In the end the decision to start and end the war lands on his feet. One possibility is that he may just die due to some illness. Most of the recent videos suggest that he has gained a lot of weight, has a puffy appearance and has problems with his right hand (Parkinsons?). Alternatively, he may be disposed off by his own leadership.

Looks like he is set to undergo cancer surgery and nominate hardline former FSB chief Nikolai Patrushev to take temporary control of the invasion.

Link

Patrushev, the 70-year-old incumbent Secretary of Russia's Security Council, is seen as a key architect of the war strategy so far, and the man who convinced Putin that Kiev is awash with neo-Nazis, said a Daily Mail report.

More on the incumbent

He is truly the hawk’s hawk. I have in the past described him as ‘the most dangerous man in Russia’ because of the way he drags Putin into even more extreme positions, fuelling his ambitions with talk of Russia’s historical mission and his paranoias with warnings of Western plots. As such, he is in many ways the lead spokesman of the siloviki – the ‘men of force’ of the military and security agencies – and the most nationalist of them, at that.

Link