[skanchan95]

A video from the beginning of the war that recently surfaced online.

https://youtu.be/k57sfiXUE1I

An Ukrainian MiG-29 pilot taking off under fire while his airbase is being bombed. Reminds me of our own Fg. Offr NJS Sekhon who took off in his Gnat while the Srinagar runway was being bombed to take on six PAF F-86s alone.

It takes immense courage to fly and fight against a much stronger enemy. While some might argue, that they were trained and duty bound to do it, but the conditions Ukrainian pilots have been operating under are pretty hard and they are fighting a losing battle and for that they deserve the highest respect and honour.

[vishnurp99]

Originally Posted by thanixravindran

A good read on Gerhard Schroeder, Former German Chancellor and his ties with Putin, Nord stream projects & continued ties with Russian oil companies.

https://www.wionews.com/world/gerhar...any-473311/amp

Couple of observations here :
1. This is an NYT article. Over the past few weeks, there has been a number of articles in NYT which have been really critical of German elite - especially the industry. For eg - there was this article about how BMW supported the German WW2 effort and is today supporting the Russian war effort by highlighting the risk of total cut off of Russian gas. There seems to be an orchestrated campaign to target German elite in the liberal outlets
2. The war is great news for American industry while terrible news for Germans & french in relative terms. Scholz came to power highlighting the "tyranny of merit". He owes the campaign to thinkers of the American left. So it's difficult for him to stand up for the industry.

I fear that the next few years will be really difficult for Germany. Without cheap gas & commodities , the socialist model with 18 months of severance pay and workers council protections will flounder.

[goacom]

Originally Posted by Poitive

The conflict is heating up further.

Been saying since early March (when the mood was quite different), and it is increasingly evident now: Ukraine is being used by the US/West to deplete Russian resources, with relatively small cost to the US. Also keeping Europe increasingly dependent on the US, and not letting a possibility of Europe and Russia build any trust and good relations for many decades to come.

I wonder if Putin is actually a CIA agent who started the war so that Russia would be destroyed.

Originally Posted by Poitive

It now seems that the US/West want to provoke/corner Russia into stronger measures - tactical nuclear/chemical, perhaps - to then find an excuse to escalate things. Escalate further to make it difficult for Putin-Russia system to manage the country. This may play out slowly, by a mix of military drain among with other economic measures, making the lives of Russians difficult and them looking to the West. Could be the 'start' of a process which resulted in it's disintegration of the USSR. Gradually nudging it towards it's own "revolution"; or perhaps a US/West compliant leader will 'somehow' reach the helm.

Not only that, but the fact that the US has been able to engineer countries like Sweden and Finland to start the process of joining NATO is amazing. Also, the fact that no American lives are being lost is also a great achievement of American power.

Originally Posted by turbo_delight

But the West can keep on sending till they start draining their own resources.
At the start of the war, As per UK, Russia did not had weapons to last more than 10 days. But now we are at 2 months and Russia is still not stopping the offence.

The 40 nations that are providing military and economic support to Ukraine have a combined GDP of around 40Trillion $. Russia has a GDP of 1.5Trillion. Unlike say the Afghanistan war, this is a resource heavy war. For the allied forces, the support necessary to sustain this war (plus not to mention, no lives lost) is trivial. For Russia it will be a huge burden. When the US announces a $5B aid package to Ukraine it is a rounding error for the US. For Russia that is 10% of its defense budget. Germany lost WW2 because it could not produce enough men and machine to fight the enemy, despite it having a huge amount to start with. Russia will be in a similar situation very soon.

Originally Posted by turbo_delight

I dont know why Germany is thinking about sending weapons to Ukraine when they are know that they will be in trouble if Russia stops gas supply. And US/UK has nothing to loose.

Yes, Germany will suffer, but it will be less than the impact of loss of revenue for Russia. Germany's growth rate will swing from 3% growth to a -2% recession. For Russia, it will swing from the current -10% recession to a -20% recession. Russia is a single product economy and the product can be replaced but at a higher cost. Russia does not have the infrastructure to export its oil and gas that it will lose from its lost markets in Europe. Oil and gas pipelines can take as much as 5 years to set up, assuming they can even find investors/buyers who are willing to risk US/EU sanctions. Furthermore what they can sell, will have to be sold at steep discounts.

Originally Posted by turbo_delight

Anyways, the ruble has been consistently gaining. Its looking better than pre-war days.

It is like putting lipstick on a pig and saying that the pig looks better than before it had lipstick on. The gains are artificial as in the result of the following actions:

1) The halt to most imports (which requires $ or Euros). But this has come at the cost of much of its import sensitive industry slowing beginning to shut down.
2) High interest rates - currently at 17%
3) Continued exports of oil and gas - but that may end soon, either because Russia will halt exports or because Europe will stop imports. Germany has just announced that it will stop Russian oil imports within days - some 8 months ahead of schedule. Germany has already cut Russian gas imports by 30%.
4) Russian central bank purchases with its US FCNR. So far it has spent about $100 Billion in reserves to buy Roubles. Again, this is not sustainable.
5) Limits on the amount of currency that is convertible by Russian citizens as well as its domestic and foreign corporations. They are effectively prisoners.

Originally Posted by turbo_delight

Putin will not stop. Why should he when he has the backing of his men.

Popularity of Putin in Russia rises above 83%.
Biden disapproval ratings go down from 48 to 49%. And he wants to fight for his next term.

Johnson wants to deviate his country and his people from his partygate scandal. He can deviate but only by so much.

The lack of popularity of the western leaders is pretty routine. However it is interesting that even their respective parliments/congresses which consist of around 50% from the opposition are also taking independent actions to support Ukraine.

As far as Putin's popularity, I suspect you also believe the Chinese news sources that Dictator Xi is also very popular in China as well. This is a free world. Good for you!

Originally Posted by Poitive

Yes, Russia has clearly stated that it will target arms supplies. Also that it would target Kyiv if needed, even if there are international observers (?) there. Drain would be from both sides. It would hurt US the least and Russia the most in the long run, is my guess.

Yeah, to put in bluntly, Russia is going to get squeezed.

Originally Posted by Poitive

Europe, it appears, is getting played with by the US. Maybe the influence of the US on Europe is way more than popularly understood. Germany's actions now and in the past are an indication.

So you are saying that Europe's leaders and its people are really stupid and will blindly follow the US. Apparently, Europeans used to be smart in the past, like when they refused to support the US in the Iraq war or refused to spend money on defense for the past 20 years.

Likewise, India needs to stop continuing its threats to China. It should withdraw from the Quad alliance (US, Japan, Australia, India), aka Asian NATO that is a US plot to encircle China. If China threatens Indian borders, it should not defend the borders as the borders were a creation by the west (British) to keep asian nations fighting each other. India should just accept Chinese claims and let them take what they want.

[Gansan]

Originally Posted by goacom

Also, the fact that no American lives are being lost is also a great achievement of American power.

Push Putin far enough and that could change. As Saddam once said, the US is a society which could not accept ten thousand body bags. They will no longer be world saviours then and will be in a hurry to get out of the mess.

[aim120]

A couple of days back China signed a security pact with Solomon Islands.

Australia said China setting up a military base in Solomon Island's will be the absolute redline. USA also said it wouldn't rule out a military action.

So when Russia says for decades that Nato expansion into Ukraine is a redline, western countries ignored it. Western apologists everywhere saying Ukraine is a free country to choose what it wants.

How many here think India won't do the same if china sets up a base in Sri lanka.( India's conventional military power is some 20x more then australia. India has nuclear triad and is nearly as powerful as the rest of common wealth nations combined).

So when russia says ukraine is a redline, all that the west did was to further try corner russia. Remember in Ukraine russian pace is slow because its street battle and they need the russian speaking population of ukraine support for the future.

But if a war takes place against any other NATO nation. That other nations will be leveled. Push putin far enough he will level the US bases in EU (with conventional warheads).

Russia nuke doctrine says that they can use nukes, if the very existence of Russian state is at a threat ( in this scenario USA itself will be inhospitable for several decades.)

[vishnurp99]

Originally Posted by goacom

The 40 nations that are providing military and economic support to Ukraine have a combined GDP of around 40Trillion $. Russia has a GDP of 1.5Trillion. Unlike say the Afghanistan war, this is a resource heavy war. For the allied forces, the support necessary to sustain this war (plus not to mention, no lives lost) is trivial. For Russia it will be a huge burden. When the US announces a $5B aid package to Ukraine it is a rounding error for the US. For Russia that is 10% of its defense budget. Germany lost WW2 because it could not produce enough men and machine to fight the enemy, despite it having a huge amount to start with. Russia will be in a similar situation very soo

Yes, Germany will suffer, but it will be less than the impact of loss of revenue for Russia. Germany's growth rate will swing from 3% growth to a -2% recession. For Russia, it will swing from the current -10% recession to a -20% recession. Russia is a single product economy and the product can be replaced but at a higher cost. Russia does not have the infrastructure to export its oil and gas that it will lose from its lost markets in Europe. Oil and gas pipelines can take as much as 5 years to set up, assuming they can even find investors/buyers who are willing to risk US/EU sanctions. Furthermore what they can sell, will have to be sold at steep discounts.

IMHO, There are two big assumptions here.
1. Russia will fight the war in a way that US expects it to fight the war.
2. Germany & France will continue to go against the interest of their industry leaders/working population and support the Americans whole heartedly.

I actually see two ways that this situation may develop.

1. Russia continues to make slow but sure gains in the southern & eastern part of Ukraine like they have done so far until Ukraine gives up and agrees to Russia's terms. If you have followed the discussion on this, Russia has slowed down the pace of their operations and the progress is very text book like now. The idea seems to be that they pummel an area with long distance artillery & aircraft fire and then the infantry comes in and clears the area. Russia has already got the land bridge to Crimea ready and they seem to be very well on target to complete the encirclement on remaining Ukranian troops in Donbas.
With every passing day of Russian advance, Biden and his team will look sadder & sadder. They have publicly aligned themselves to the Ukranians. So they can't lose now. Inflation will continue to go up in the US. Putin will become stronger with each passing day. After all, He is the strong Russian leader who has intimidated America and the 40 thieves ( allies lol). Think about the symbolism. The American public & crafty politicians like Trump start asking what is the point of sanctions. An offramp is given to the USA which involves sacrificing Biden's political future and Mrs Obama (or somebody else) comes into the limelight.

2. The second possibility is that Ukranians will be able to repulse the Russians over time with the help of western supplied arms & ammunition. The fatigue & the morale of the Russian fighting force will deteriorate with time. The American media will see this as proof that Russian military equipment is poor. Trolling of the russian military capability and their dead soldier/only sons of Russian mothers etc will continue on an industrial scale.
Russia will be driven into a corner as a result of this. Two things may happen from this point : Russia decides to compromise with what they set out to do. So they have to compromise on Crimea, Donbas or one of the two. They may have to give back Mariopol which was conquered at great cost. Putin loses his personal image and he gets replaced with somebody else.
or Putin decides to escalate this further. In case his hypersonic missiles & gliders are as good as he claims them to be, he can take out most of America's military infrastructure pretty easily. I don't think anybody really knows how good they are.
In this storyline, Russia will not back down because Russians have packaged this as an existential issue and an assault on Russian culture/ethos and their nazi victor heritage. Russia has around 150 Million population today. It's said that they lost around 20 Million people in world war 2. So most of this 150 Million people will know somebody in their immediate family who has been lost in the world war. So it's an emotive issue.

Finally I leave you with this article.
https://www.popularmechanics.com/mil...uld-look-like/

By the way, 40 Trillion USD will be just paper from the time the first nuke falls on the American mainland. People will rush towards real things - commodities like oil, gold. So there is that too.

[dragracer567]

Originally Posted by Gansan

Push Putin far enough and that could change. As Saddam once said, the US is a society which could not accept ten thousand body bags. They will no longer be world saviours then and will be in a hurry to get out of the mess.

Well, the Saddam who said this is no more. The Iraqi army was no pushover during the first Gulf War, it was third or fourth largest military back then with one of the biggest Air Force and tank fleet (if I recall correctly) and we all know how that turned out to be. There seems to be a lot of parallels between the Iraqi army then and the Russian army now - overhyped, massive but plagued by poor equipment, morale and training.

[Gansan]

^^ There is a big difference. There was absolutely no possibility of bombs or missiles hitting mainland US. So they could undertake shock and awe with impunity. Now the risk is very real. Not only conventional, but also the N kind.

Are they willing to bet the Russian threat is pretty ordinary and they can intercept all the misslies?

[vishnurp99]

Originally Posted by dragracer567

Well, the Saddam who said this is no more. The Iraqi army was no pushover during the first Gulf War, it was third or fourth largest military back then with one of the biggest Air Force and tank fleet (if I recall correctly) and we all know how that turned out to be. There seems to be a lot of parallels between the Iraqi army then and the Russian army now - overhyped, massive but plagued by poor equipment, morale and training.

US seems to have a different opinion about Russia though. Even though there is a lot of weapon financing & coordinated information warfare & trolling, US & it's 40 allies have refused to provide any kind of air support/no-fly-zone for Ukraine. So two things are pretty clear in my opinion.
1. US fears the consequences of a direct fight with Russia. They also know that at least some of Russian nukes work!.
2. There is a lot of concern around the hypersonic weapons that Russia possesses.
Ukraine has done a great job of using human shields in the war so far. Apparently there are a lot of Russian speaking kids in areas like Azovstal steel plant who are being held as shields. Russia has been uncharacteristically restrained in most theatres like Kiev. Mariopol was the only city which was flattened because they really wanted to get that for strategic reasons.

[Foxbat]

Originally Posted by goacom

I wonder if Putin is actually a CIA agent who started the war so that Russia would be destroyed.

Time will tell, Ukraine is definitely getting destroyed in the process.

Originally Posted by goacom

The 40 nations that are providing military and economic support to Ukraine have a combined GDP of around 40Trillion $. Russia has a GDP of 1.5Trillion. Unlike say the Afghanistan war, this is a resource heavy war.

Not sure why you keep repeating this point when it has been debunked earlier, who won the Vietnam, Korean, Afghanistan wars?

Originally Posted by goacom

It is like putting lipstick on a pig and saying that the pig looks better than before it had lipstick on. The gains are artificial as in the result of the following actions:

Was seizing $284 Billion of Russian assets part of artificial or natural actions?

Originally Posted by goacom

Likewise, India needs to stop continuing its threats to China. It should withdraw from the Quad alliance (US, Japan, Australia, India), aka Asian NATO that is a US plot to encircle China. If China threatens Indian borders, it should not defend the borders as the borders were a creation by the west (British) to keep asian nations fighting each other. India should just accept Chinese claims and let them take what they want.

I hope you are joking. India should let another nation invade and occupy its land and take whatever they want?

Why doesn't Ukraine allow Russia to occupy its land and take what they want? It's just the west that just wants to keep Eastern nations fighting each other.

[dragracer567]

Originally Posted by Gansan

^^ There is a big difference. There was absolutely no possibility of bombs or missiles hitting mainland US. So they could undertake shock and awe with impunity. Now the risk is very real. Not only conventional, but also the N kind.

Are they willing to bet the Russian threat is pretty ordinary and they can intercept all the misslies?

That question is about as relevant as asking whether Russia would be willing to attack Poland or the Baltics and engage NATO directly. It’s respectable that both sides don’t want human civilisation to end. It’s telling how reading between the lines of a lot of the comments here, even the detractors expect Russia to behave suicidally but NATO to be more restrained.

Originally Posted by Foxbat

I hope you are joking. India should let another nation invade and occupy its land and take whatever they want?

Why doesn't Ukraine allow Russia to occupy its land and take what they want? It's just the west that just wants to keep Eastern nations fighting each other.

No one’s saying that India’s borders aren’t sacred but the India-China border was drawn by the British. So, using your own logic about Ukraine, you are inferring that India shouldn’t be defending its border with China. What’s true for Ukraine should be true for India as well (based on your logic, not mine).

[Poitive]

Originally Posted by goacom

I wonder if Putin is actually a CIA agent who started the war so that Russia would be destroyed.

About "Gorby", I've heard that with reasons. About Putin is surprising to hear.

Originally Posted by goacom

So you are saying that Europe's leaders and its people are really stupid and will blindly follow the US.

It would be way too oversimplistic to say that, and I really would not extrapolate that from what I said.

Politics - especially international politics and foreign policy - is way more complex and nuanced. One part of it boils down to making other countries, or more specifically, it's collection of decision makers find it viable and worthwhile (for patriotic, practical or other reasons) to do what is favourable for your purpose in the larger scheme of things. These can be a collection of small measures amounting to a lot, or some bigger actions as a result or many smaller interventions. The Ukraine conflict is also an example if you follow it's history for the last about 1.5 decades, or if so inclined right from WW2 and how some Nazi aligned forces have been cultivated for the future, even while the Soviet Union existed. As I've mentioned in my earlier posts on this thread, politics and gaming of outcomes is done for long durations by countries which can afford to do so. Some say for over a hundred years or more. (some simplified details of gaming too have been shared in an old post)

One possible example of influencing other countries to favourable outcomes can be found in your post itself:

Originally Posted by goacom

Not only that, but the fact that the US has been able to engineer countries like Sweden and Finland to start the process of joining NATO is amazing. Also, the fact that no American lives are being lost is also a great achievement of American power.

~~~~~~~

Originally Posted by goacom

Likewise, India needs to stop continuing its threats to China. It should withdraw from the Quad alliance (US, Japan, Australia, India), aka Asian NATO that is a US plot to encircle China. If China threatens Indian borders, it should not defend the borders as the borders were a creation by the west (British) to keep asian nations fighting each other. India should just accept Chinese claims and let them take what they want.

I have largely avoided talk about India and politics, as it is considered unwelcome on the forum (even on this thread), and will avoid details as it is a slippery slope to partisan politics and nasty combative posts.

A broad point worth pondering over - one which I made much earlier on the thread - is:
-- Russia and the rest of Europe are natural allies in some senses. Russia sells, Europe buys cheap and both flourish. Less spend on defence too. Imagine Russia being a part of the European Military pact instead of US.
Russia and the rest of Europe being in harmony is not in the US interests.
--India-China-Russia too being on good terms could be highly fruitful. Imagine the combined military and financial strength. India and Russia have had good relations, as have Russia and China.
It is in the interest of the US for India and China not to have good relations.

For it's own interests, the US will do what it can - subtly or otherwise - to keep such alliances from developing harmoniously. I am not blaming them. Just observing, learning, and sharing thoughts, without getting into any combat.

[deetee]

Discord among EU members is growing about buying Russian energy. In latest development, Italian gas company prepares to pay in Rubles for gas.


When war started, it was predicted to be over 10 days. After a month, they said May 9th. Now, 10 years!!

[Red Liner]

Europe and the USA can never be trusted honestly. The second India goes ahead to get POK back from Pakistan, which is rightfully India’s, we will be treated like a pariah state. The so called West comes to the party only when things look right to them.

Hopefully India builds up our world standing from here.

[Foxbat]

Interesting news, wonder what happened to the boycott Russian oil and gas plan?




One of Germany's biggest energy firms has said it is preparing to buy Russian gas using a payment system that critics say will undermine EU sanctions.

Uniper says it will pay in euros which will be converted into roubles, meeting a Kremlin demand for all transactions to be made in the Russian currency.

Other European energy firms are reportedly preparing to do the same amid concerns about supply cuts.

Source: https://www.bbc.com/news/business-61257846

The Ruble just keeps getting stronger: