The ongoing COP26 summit taking place in Glasglow, Scotland is probably one of the most consequential conferences which will decide the fate of humanity as a whole. So, let me explain what's going on in a series of Q&As.
What is COP26?
The conference is the 26th Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the third meeting of the parties to the Paris Agreement. Effectively, the parties will monitor the progress by the signatories to the Paris accords and ideally find ways to enhance their commitments.
What is at stake?
Our future. The ideal scenario would be that the rise in global temperatures since the industrial revolution do not exceed 1.5 C after the emissions have peaked and the net carbon emissions begin to decline leading to carbon neutrality or eventually carbon negativity where we absorb more Carbon than we emit. At this point, we are already at 1.1 C above pre-industrial revolution temperatures. The Paris accords effectively declared that the signatories will strive to achieve a maximum increase of 2.0 C from industrial revolution temperatures which can still lead to significant changes to the climate leading to erratic climatic phenomenons like cyclones & droughts. An increase of 3.0 C by 2050 which is projected based on the current rate of emissions will effectively lead to a climate catastrophe making life very difficult for most of us humans.
Can climate be really influenced by human-kind? What's the proof? Hasn't climate changed in the past?
Yes, the climate can & is being influenced by human-kind. The diagram below (courtesy BBC) will give you an indication why. Climate has changed in the past, but over thousands or even millions of years, not over a mere 150 years which is unprecedented.
What has India pledged?
India has basically pledged that it will reach carbon-neutrality by 2070. This is 20 years later than US & EU while its 10 years later than the pledge by China. But the fact remains that despite being the fourth largest emitter (including the EU), India's per capita emissions is still relatively small especially given that a lot of India's population still don't have access to reliable electricity.
India also claims that it will reduce its carbon intensity which is its carbon output in relation to economic growth. This is a fair point as it doesn't matter if US & EU reach carbon neutrality by 2050 if they emit too much carbon on the way to carbon neutrality. The journey to carbon neutrality is just as important as the destination.
India makes some good arguments that while the western countries used fossil fuels to industrialize, developing countries are being denied the opportunity to do the same. However, developed countries argue that developing countries do not have to make the same mistakes as developed ones but can use the opportunity to leapfrog technologies which is a valid point. But all this requires money. Developed countries had pledged $100 billion to help developing countries achieve their targets but this couldn't be achieved with the US under Trump pulling out. Overall, the shift would cost trillions of dollars but still lower than the projected impacts of climate change.
My take: it is true that the developed countries enjoyed the fruits of fossil fuels but at this point, we are in this together & India will be among the countries most affected by climate change. If it manages to transition away from fossil fuels manner, it will be a model for other developing countries to follow.
Where does India stand now?
India remains one of the most reliant countries on coal with 70% of the energy coming from coal. But conversely, India has also made strides in renewable energy and famously has the cheapest prices for solar energy in the world. India has pledged that 50% of its energy will come from renewables by 2030 (which is a revised target from 40% provided at the Paris accords). It was 23% in 2019.
How can carbon neutrality be achieved?
Carbon neutrality can be achieved by a combination of limiting emissions and absorbing carbon from the atmosphere. Some of the ways include:
1) Shifting to renewables & nuclear energy.
2) Shifting to electric modes of transportation.
3) Electrifying rail & using high-speed rail instead of flights for short distances.
4) Shifting to alternate forms of energy such as green hydrogen.
5) Reducing consumption of cattle like beef & lamb or find ways to make them more sustainable by formulating new types of feeds.
6) Aforestation.
7) Carbon capture using CCS (Carbon-Capture & Storage) technology or large microalgae & seaweed farms.
PS: while I've tried to explain everything in layman's terms, do let me know any point that requires further explanation, I would be happy to answer or find the answer if I don't know it myself.