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Old 12th November 2021, 14:25   #46
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Re: COP26 - India to go carbon neutral by 2070!

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You are absolutely right! Yes, the scientific community messed up on that one. But then again, while it's obvious I'll stick up for my own kind, it should be noted that it was the scientific community itself that stood up and questioned the blanket rejection of the lab theory that made it mainstream again. If it was true that scientists stick to their views like some sort of religion, why did scientists reverse course and accept that lab theory is highly likely as well? When evidence turned out to the contrary (including clear conflicts of interest by the virologist who originally published that article saying COVID was natural, which no one noticed for a year for some reason), we accepted our mistake and readily acknowledged the change in facts. Infact, history is riddled with how scientists changed their entire understanding of the universe when new evidences came to light, the only thing constant about science is change. ....
Apologies if my observation came up as against the scientific community. In fact , it is quite the opposite. In the Covid origin issue, it was the mainstream media and the social media tech giants who took it upon themselves to censor the views about the plausibility of a lab-leak, even if the views are of distinguished virologists. Facebook started allowing lab-leak posts only in May 2021 !!

I don't think scientific community messed up anything on the Covid origin issue. I know scientific consensus takes a long time to come about, just wish that the media doesn't suppress one viewpoint based on which politician is also advocating it.

Last edited by DigitalOne : 12th November 2021 at 14:28.
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Old 12th November 2021, 14:32   #47
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Re: COP26 - India to go carbon neutral by 2070!

Since OP is a marine biologist, I have some doubts you could maybe clarify. I have known that large scale fishing and plastic pollution are some of the biggest problems in that eco system.

I recently watched this documentary called seaspiracy. While it seemed somewhat exaggerated about the scale, it did make an important point I've never considered before, the impact of fishing nets on the ocean floor. Are large and exponential areas of coral reefs or marine life forms on the ocean floor being destroyed during the fishing process?

In the IPCC reports, have calculations factored in how much of an impact the death of coral reefs ( from oceanic acidification) and the release of gases trapped in ice since the ice age would have? Has the report factored in variables that could make a bad situation worse like the examples given above?

As for climate change deniers, read the news. So many extreme weather events, Chennai receiving record breaking rainfall in such a short interval and other incidents all across the globe.
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Old 12th November 2021, 15:32   #48
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Re: COP26 - India to go carbon neutral by 2070!

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Apologies if my observation came up as against the scientific community. In fact , it is quite the opposite. In the Covid origin issue, it was the mainstream media and the social media tech giants who took it upon themselves to
I completely understand, the rant was not at all directed at you. Infact, you made a valid point! Again, this is partially the fault of the scientific community at their inability to communicate and shape public opinion as I mentioned in a previous post. Infact, I earnestly feel that graduate programs should include a degree of public communication in their syllabus instead of encouraging scientists to work in their cocoons.

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Since OP is a marine biologist, I have some doubts you could maybe clarify. I have known that large scale fishing and plastic pollution are some of the biggest problems in that eco system.

I recently watched this documentary called seaspiracy. While it seemed somewhat exaggerated about the scale, it did make an important point I've never considered before, the impact of fishing nets on the ocean floor. Are large and exponential areas of coral reefs or marine life forms on the ocean floor being destroyed during the fishing process?

In the IPCC reports, have calculations factored in how much of an impact the death of coral reefs ( from oceanic acidification) and the release of gases trapped in ice since the ice age would have? Has the report factored in variables that could make a bad situation worse like the examples given above?
Ah, seaspiracy! I won't say consensus but significant number of marine biologists have a bone to pick with Mr. Ali Tabrizi for misrepresenting facts so blatantly in an almost tabloid manner despite throwing light on serious issues such as slavery, hunting of marine mammals, the illegal trade of shark fins, overfishing etc. He had a chance to portray the issues in a more objective manner but blew it. Perhaps this is something for a later thread.

Regarding fishing nets, they got their numbers wrong. According to greenpeace, fishing nets account for 10% of the plastic waste, not 50% as they claimed in the documentary which has been debunked Source . Now 10% isn't small but not severely out of proportion as claimed in the documentary. I need to be clear on this, this is still a huge problem but plastic waste from land has an even bigger role to play.

Make no mistake, overfishing is a huge problem! It's basically the land equivalent of going to the forest to hunt for animals instead of growing cattle. The best way to fix this would be aquaculture (which was derided in the documentary as well). However, when it comes to corals, the biggest challenge remains climate change with overfishing playing a secondary role in making a bad situation worse (not the other way round as shown in the documentary).

Are factors like the death of coral reefs ( from oceanic acidification) and the release of gases trapped in ice since the ice age taken into account? I just don't know. But climate models have to be constantly updated as new factors such as faster coral bleaching and higher deforestation emerge that have to be taken into account. This is why the rise in temperatures we are seeing right now is actually higher than what was predicted.

Last edited by dragracer567 : 12th November 2021 at 15:34.
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Old 12th November 2021, 17:33   #49
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Re: COP26 - India to go carbon neutral by 2070!

Slightly off topic. One of the biggest polluters now is the crypto currency mining. The amount of electricity consumed is equivalent to annual consumption for some small countries. Do we really need a parallel currency with no intrinsic value. Should developed countries not clamp down the mining. Most of the electricity for crypto mining is from coal fired plants
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Old 12th November 2021, 18:56   #50
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Re: COP26 - India to go carbon neutral by 2070!

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One of the biggest polluters now is the crypto currency mining. The amount of electricity consumed is equivalent to annual consumption for some small countries.
(Co-incidentally, a great post by Bhpian ashokrajagopal on the same topic on the Crypto thread just today.)
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...This is the much talked about proof of work algorithm. If we were to call spades as spades, it should be called Proof of wastage of electricity.
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Old 12th November 2021, 19:48   #51
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Re: COP26 - India to go carbon neutral by 2070!

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Slightly off topic. One of the biggest polluters now is the crypto currency mining. The amount of electricity consumed is equivalent to annual consumption for some small countries. Do we really need a parallel currency with no intrinsic value. Should developed countries not clamp down the mining. Most of the electricity for crypto mining is from coal fired plants
Sorry had to interject. I'm glad that this discussion is happening and I have more I'll try and respond to in due course (credit to dragracer for patiently putting up with some of the hectoring masquerading as the rational method.. and people wonder why science communication is a poisoned chalice in the post-truth era..).

Anyway, crypto mining. Yes, it's a massive draw on energy for no real contribution to wider society but let's not for one moment forget that the footprint of crypto is a tiny subset in the bigger pollution contributor list. It makes for a convenient scape goat to deflect attention from some of the truly behemoth sectors in terms of pollution and carbon footprint. On this forum we're well aware of the contribution from mobility, be it motor vehicles, air transport and marine shipping. Power generation is another big contributor. But two sectors that don't get as much press are the steel and concrete industries!

Steel and concrete production in the way that we have done for decades is Massively carbon intensive both in the energy draw of the production and in the by products. Concrete and steel are very much the two essential building blocks for modern built up society. Decarbonising these two sectors is a nightmare and sure enough you can see why there's scant little spoken about either beyond a few niche efforts to either make the energy draw green in terms of steel plants or cement plants, but the chemical method for either, most of the work is still academic. Just think about the fact that most standard modern concrete is to the best of my knowledge constantly degassing over the course of its life.

Some contributors have correctly identified that in a perpetual growth system, the picture is bleak, but let's work with what we have. It might sound cynical but at the end of the day if you can fiscally incentivise a certain move (ie, someone will make money out of it) you can harness greed, the capitalist system, what have you to try and effect the change you want. Look at the BEV push, we've identified the means to decarbonise personal mobility in a way that still keeps the gears turning at the big auto OEMs, and bar some hesitance from the Japanese players, the whole sector has jumped on board. Trying to change the steel and concrete sectors so drastically, you can see why everyone just tries to brush it under the carpet because that would require a root and stem rethink.

I'll come back and add the geoscience angle on some of the topics from earlier-
Climate models
Plastic pollution in water bodies (specifically the microplastic menace)
Science communication
Climate ethics (this is the one that's the thorniest as evidenced from some of the more prickly responses earlier in the thread)
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Old 12th November 2021, 21:35   #52
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Re: COP26 - India to go carbon neutral by 2070!

My primary problem with what the developed nations do - Polluted Earth to heart's content for several decades if not centuries. When the developing nations have no other way out, point out the 'total' carbon emissions to beat them up. Completely forget about the per capita emissions (SSShhhh!!! Dont talk about it).

I am not against conservation. Ban plastic. Do whatever to avoid pollution, but have realistic goals.

Electric vehicles, thought I love the technology - Is akin to building a new flyover on Bangalore outer ring road. Basically shift the traffic jam from one point to another. Shift the pollution from the cities to other areas.
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Old 12th November 2021, 22:01   #53
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Re: COP26 - India to go carbon neutral by 2070!

Western Nations very well knew since the early 1900s that carbon emissions affect the environment.

Battery tech & alternative fuel technologies were very famously pushed as a possible alternative since the 1960s. Still, they "partnered" with Saudi and bullied the world into adopting crude oil.

COP26 - India to go carbon neutral by 2070!-20211112_202455.jpg
Image Ctsy : NYTimes

An objective analysis of emissions very much exists and so does the reasoning around it.

India (as do developing countries) need to deny any country the right to lay sanctions upon us for trying to develop & bring our citizens out of penury and disempowering existence.

Although distinguished members here have made valid points about climate change being something everyone has to get together to solve, hope their amplified alarms (thanks to their positions) do not drown out the voice of citizens pleading to be mercifully allowed to live with fewer penalising taxes based on carbon emissions of their basic living necessities.

P.S. : Example - Track how many cars a person buys and then act on it accordingly like say

Only demand PUC for a person's older car.
OR say, Only disallow a person's 2nd 15yr old car in the NCR.

P.P.S : This is for ordinary individuals. For industries, control emissions by devising an enforceable mechanism where they follow Production Linked Carbon Credits.

Last edited by GrammarNazi : 12th November 2021 at 22:23. Reason: Added Post Script
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Old 12th November 2021, 23:53   #54
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Re: COP26 - India to go carbon neutral by 2070!

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Steel and concrete production in the way that we have done for decades is Massively carbon intensive both in the energy draw of the production and in the by products. Concrete and steel are very much the two essential building blocks for modern built up society. Decarbonising these two sectors is a nightmare and sure enough you can see why there's scant little spoken about either beyond a few niche efforts to either make the energy draw green in terms of steel plants or cement plants, but the chemical method for either, most of the work is still academic. Just think about the fact that most standard modern concrete is to the best of my knowledge constantly degassing over the course of its life.
Glad you pitched in, always a pleasure to read your very lucid explanations when it comes to technical threads like this one.

You are absolutely right regarding steel and concrete! In my previous job at a company in Dubai, we had some consultancy work with NEOM city - the supposedly sustainable city being built in Saudi Arabia. To meet their sustainability credentials, they just came up with a list of banned materials in the city for environmental reasons and concrete was one among them. We got back to them on what they proposed to use in the place of concrete for which they said they just provide exceptions on a 'case-by-case' basis so, why ban concrete in the first place when they know they can't build an entire city without it? As with so many things in the Gulf, environmental projects there tend to be greenwashing more than anything else.

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Western Nations very well knew since the early 1900s that carbon emissions affect the environment.
Absolutely true, but while we must absolutely hold the west to account, the emissions from China right now is no less alarming. Though relatively average in terms of per capita emissions, the emissions by individual Chinese companies right now is more than entire developed Western nations like Canada or highly populated countries like Pakistan! Yes, looking back, the west contributed a lot! There's not much we can do about it other than ensuring that the developed world pay their dues to the developing world which will inevitably suffer more because of this crisis (why they did not cause). However, it is also important for these Chinese companies (many of them PSUs) to rein in their emissions if we are to avert this catastrophe.

Source
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Old 14th November 2021, 09:52   #55
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Re: COP26 - India to go carbon neutral by 2070!

Climate pact adopted after last-minute dramatic change to the resolution from "phase-out" of coal and other fossil fuels subsidies to "phase down".

IMHO, a strong and good stance taken by India. Until the time we can ensure 24/7 reliable electricity supply to all our citizens, we should not compromise.

Source: The Indian Express
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Old 14th November 2021, 19:33   #56
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Re: COP26 - India to go carbon neutral by 2070!

Tough words from Alok Sharma, the president of COP26:

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But as I said, in relation to what happened yesterday, China and India will have to explain themselves and what they did to the most climate-vulnerable countries in the world.
Source

All said and done, making almost 200 world leaders representing over 7 billion people agree on something isn't an easy task, so even if the final report is watered down as compared to what people originally liked to see, we are atleast headed in the right direction and an increase of 1.5 C is still seemingly possible.

One of the interesting outcomes is the plan to stop deforestation by 2030 which means that food production from cattle and soy would become more expensive. The CEO of Delta Airlines has also said that flying would get more expensive in the coming years. However, the cost of climate change itself would certainly be higher than the increments in food/transport costs.

Another aspect we haven't thought about is the impact of climate change on politics. In India's case, not only will it lead to internal migration as coastal areas go underwater but we will also get climate refugees from low-lying neighboring countries like Maldives, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh turning politics even more right-wing in ways we cannot comprehend. The same will be the case in Europe with low-lying countries like Belgium and Netherlands suffering more than their neighboring countries. It's likely that the newly created climate refugees will be a cause of social unrest in the coming decades.

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Old 15th November 2021, 13:13   #57
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Re: COP26 - India to go carbon neutral by 2070!

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Awe will also get climate refugees from low-lying neighboring countries like Maldives, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh turning politics even more right-wing in ways we cannot comprehend. The same will be the case in Europe with low-lying countries like Belgium and Netherlands suffering more than their neighboring countries. It's likely that the newly created climate refugees will be a cause of social unrest in the coming decades.
… so India successfully pushed the deadline to allow for low cost economic growth fueled by coal (because we have huge deposits in house).

I was wondering what goes on in the mind of other "non-developed" nations that do not have coal (and thus cannot benefit from such relaxation) and also are prone to coastal flooding (due to their geographies).
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Old 15th November 2021, 18:20   #58
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Re: COP26 - India to go carbon neutral by 2070!

Might this perhaps be the beginning of laying the foundations of a global government? How long are we away from war over resources? How much can sovereignty be respected when one's own nation is at stake? Is it far fetched to believe that India would cut off water supply to Pakistan when it's own people are at risk? Would the United States of America recognise the sovereignty of South American Nations when the Amazonian rainforests, the lungs of the earth, are butchered for economic gain? We might perhaps witness the formation of a global government in our lifetimes. In the past, it might not have been feasible, but with all of our modern technological advancements, it is easily possible. Why must we encourage the individual economic growth of nations when economic growth ultimately equates to more turmoil and pollution.

An excellent way to gauge the tone of governments is to read between the lines of news headlines. In India, the media hail the government as a hero for having allowed coal to continue, while in other countries, India and China are seen as barriers to salvation from climate change. Alok Sharma literally said "sorry" because he knows what's in store.

People love talking about per capita emissions, which is irrelevant in the grand scheme of things. India's population is so massive that our per capita emissions will always be lower, it's basic math after all. However, we're the third largest emitter in the world, and we just told the world to mind their own business. In terms of climate change, we're in this together and the planet does not take in national boundaries as a factor.

I read an article today about how the US military alone is in the 46th place in terms of national emissions. It pollutes the world more than the entire nation of Portugal. The population of the world are preoccupied with pointing fingers while not realising that everyone is digging their own graves. People think they're Indians, Americans, Pakistanis and what not, but the truth is, we're all just humans, emptying the resources on a rock in the middle of space running towards our own extinction.

I'm straying from the topic, my apologies, but I find it infuriating how stupid humanity can be. People are so mindlessly in pursuit of economic growth, that they've now forgotten about basic survival. There are so many posts here about how India is entitled to economic growth, but we're missing the point, this isn't about India or the USA or any other country, this is about planet Earth and how we're killing every other species for no reason at all.

All these conversations and posts would become irrelevant in our lifetimes when there would be widespread social disorder and warfare over basic resources, because that is where we are headed. Nature does not care for petty squabbles, nature does not care for international equity. Nature only cares for balance and we're far from balance.
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Old 16th November 2021, 21:38   #59
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Re: COP26 - India to go carbon neutral by 2070!

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Originally Posted by DigitalOne View Post
Climate pact adopted after last-minute dramatic change to the resolution from "phase-out" of coal and other fossil fuels subsidies to "phase down".

IMHO, a strong and good stance taken by India. Until the time we can ensure 24/7 reliable electricity supply to all our citizens, we should not compromise.
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Originally Posted by alpha1 View Post
… so India successfully pushed the deadline to allow for low cost economic growth fueled by coal (because we have huge deposits in house). I was wondering what goes on in the mind of other "non-developed" nations that do not have coal (and thus cannot benefit from such relaxation) and also are prone to coastal flooding (due to their geographies).
The COP26 attack line was against coal. I can understand why. But led by the West especially the US of A there is inadequate mention and targets on oil & natural gas. Why? Their use is polluting the environment too. And in USA & other cold countries they literally burn oil in millions of houses in winter for heating. So while I can understand the indignation over "phase out" to "phase down" of coal we need to see the same commitment from the West on oil & gas and them funding the renewables energy sector in the third world. The $ 100 bn is a poor joke when you compare that with the US defense budget of $ 753 bn!!.

For all the flack we received fact is India's achievement {from the Paris accord} on installed renewables base is miles ahead of targets. In 2020 we were at 136 gigawatts or 38% of the installed base - third highest in the world - I forget all our targets but 2010 was 20 gigawatts. The phase out to phase down was India & China's way of ensuring COP26 did not end in failure and all that global effort led to a common agreed tangible agreement. The press instead is positioning it as a cop out by India & China. Dear US of A, shall we talk about oil & gas too please.
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Old 16th November 2021, 23:11   #60
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Re: COP26 - India to go carbon neutral by 2070!

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… so India successfully pushed the deadline to allow for low cost economic growth fueled by coal (because we have huge deposits in house).
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Originally Posted by hrk997 View Post
An excellent way to gauge the tone of governments is to read between the lines of news headlines. In India, the media hail the government as a hero for having allowed coal to continue, while in other countries, India and China are seen as barriers to salvation from climate change. Alok Sharma literally said "sorry" because he knows what's in store.
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Originally Posted by V.Narayan View Post
For all the flack we received fact is India's achievement {from the Paris accord} on installed renewables base is miles ahead of targets. In 2020 we were at 136 gigawatts or 38% of the installed base - third highest in the world - I forget all our targets but 2010 was 20 gigawatts. The phase out to phase down was India & China's way of ensuring COP26 did not end in failure and all that global effort led to a common agreed tangible agreement. The press instead is positioning it as a cop out by India & China. Dear US of A, shall we talk about oil & gas too please.
A couple of thoughts here. I am a globalist but saying that being a rich or poor country doesn't matter when you take the world as a whole is a bit like saying that if a person is a billionaire or living in poverty doesn't matter in the society as a whole. The GDP per capita of the US is 30 times that of India and about 5 times that of China. Like poor people, poor countries have inherent weaknesses. Don't go by all the jingoism of the past few years, India is still a poor country with very severe limitations on how quickly it can adapt though admittedly, it is better placed than our neighbors like Pakistan, Bangladesh or Sri Lanka due to having a better indigenous industry. India (and other developing countries) need financing from richer countries to help shift their economies away from fossil fuels but this financing was not promised conclusively in COP26. This along with previous instances of rich countries breaking their promises on financing is what led India to water down the language for coal.

If India can afford to, there honestly aren't many other roadblocks to phasing out coal because India doesn't have a fossil fuel lobby like in the US. Reliance and Adani are the only big private energy companies in India and they eagerly look forward to being green energy tycoons, while rest are PSUs. Without financing, there is literally no way for India to phase out fossil fuels on its own, so yes, there is hypocrisy here on the part of Western countries. Also, we have to keep in mind that none of the targets are set in stone and must be continuously strengthened by every country periodically as technologies progress and get cheaper. If Western countries become trustworthy financiers, this can happen quicker, so the ball is in their court, not in India's. And for the sake of the planet and those low-lying Island nations, just hope to God that there isn't another climate denier as US president.

Another hypocrite here is China. They happily backed India as a 'fellow developing country', never mind the fact that their actual emissions is 5-6 times that of India with the same population and as I said earlier, their largest polluting companies emit more than entire mid-size developed countries.

Also, a very good article in the BBC where they neatly explain India's perspective. Highly recommend reading it. OT - While many Indians feel that the BBC unfairly targets India with negative news, I feel when a country (especially a democratic one) gains prominence globally, even small issues in these countries will be on the front news worldwide (for example, how much positive news about the US do you read in the BBC? You don't see Americans complaining).

Last edited by dragracer567 : 16th November 2021 at 23:15.
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