[Stribog]

Originally Posted by arpanjha

The US last night pulled out from the Kabul airport leaving behind some 73 aircraft’s, some 10M $ / a piece (not sure ultimately how much it will add upto) worth of anti aircraft bombing must be lying around / equipments, 27 Humvees, 70 Mine resistant vehicles and so much more!

While the Talibans celebrate this as an independence victory, but as TBhpians we really want to analyse how much usable/unusable equipment the US have left behind into the hands of the Taliban.

In several articles the US claim that they have disabled maximum no. of equipments which will no longer be possible to use, mainly aircrafts, but I wish to know will they somehow be able to use them in a distant future?

I’m also really worried about the ammunition that the US/NATO/British army etc must have left behind in addition to armaments. Aircrafts or no aircraft’s is a bigger picture but equipments like guns/ tankers/ humvees really matter everyday.
No one speaks about them? They just speak about humvees and planes!

Anyone here who can add something? Or throw some light?

The US has protocols in place for any military equipment, even in hostile conditions to be disabled. For instance the heavily modified Blackhawk used in the raid on Abbotabad (Osama) that crashed, was destroyed and the world to this day does not now about any of its mods.

Except for low maintenance kit like an MRAP or Humvee, other military equipment are highly maintenance intensive. Without the right spares and tools to maintain them, they will fall apart in a very short period of time.

Take the much vaunted Iraqi army in 2004, its kit was literally breaking apart from lack of maintenance. The Iranian air force is struggling to maintain its ancient fleet of Northrop F-5's (50's vintage), f-4 Phantom (50's again)only by cannibalizing from a previously much larger fleet and these were much much larger economies compared to the puny Afghan Taliban economy.

Kit like a blackhawk or Chinook or an M1A1 Abrams will simply just stop functioning (even if not disabled). This actually happened to the Afghan army / airforce, after the contractors withdrew, within 3-6 months their equipment stopped working.

So no, there is no threat of any of these advanced kit being used anywhere anytime.

On the question of small arms, say rifles, ammo etc - these are available very cheaply in the global arms market anyway, the Chinese will sell the Taliban 100,000 knockoff AK's and enough Ammo to start WW3 for instance, for very cheap.

This happened in Vietnam too, but nothing came of it.

The Taliban also prefer their Toyota and few Tata technicals, gives them immense mobility. Besides, in Panjshir, to use helicopters in isolation is a death sentence.

Ask the Soviets if you don't believe me.

One simple and cheap RPG positioned in the right cliff = bye bye to million dollar kit. Doctrine also means the Taliban will never use them in combat against the Northern Alliance part 2.

If the mods permit and if anyone else is interested, will do a write up on the TTP, Taliban, and what it all means for India.

[arpanjha]

@Striborg
Thanks for the descriptive insight, yes I am definitely interested to read the write up on TTP / Taliban and what it means for India, but the MODs can advise wether you can do so here or on a separate thread or we should not discuss politics at all.

[nitinsharma1000]

Originally Posted by SS80

I don't know if this would have been a better idea.
Place time bombs in each aircraft, humvee and any large vehicle left behind and once the last plane takes off, let it explode. Probably a remote detonation could have helped. Now situation is similar to monkeys having access to knives and swords.

That's correct. They normally use an incendiary charge to destroy sensitive equipment. It produces enough temperature to melt metal and make it useless. There have been reports that this was done for most of the equipment which was still under US care. The equipment under Afghan forces' care was a different story.

Also US does have a history of leaving(or dropping by parachute behind enemy lines) booby trapped ammunition so they use it. There was done in Vietnam I believe. So the ammo looks and feels authentic, but it has a different composition charge instead of the correct type of gun powder. When it is fired out of lets say an AK variant, components of the bolt carrier will normally go through the shooters head and also cause shrapnel for those around.

[v1p3r]

Of late, I've been wondering why everyone is so concerned about Afghanistan and the Taliban coming back to power. It doesn't affect us in any meaninful way in India - our real worry will always be our highly industrialised neighbour to the North-East. I suppose it's the cause du jour so everyone's weighing in.

For all those asking why America left - why not? The US is less reliant than ever on its relations with the Islamic world and their fossil fuel reserves. They feel no need to spend money and lives (much more important in the US) to 'safeguard democracy' anymore. This was Obama's and Trump's attitude as well, and we can thank shale oil for it.

Similarly, the Taliban and the others have realised it isn't worth attacking the US, who will go to extremes whilst seeking vengeance, and now anyway don't care about this part of the world. People go back to doing what they were doing, and minding their own business.

And why on earth would the US give India any defence equipment unless we paid market value for it?!

Originally Posted by Stribog

If the mods permit and if anyone else is interested, will do a write up on the TTP, Taliban, and what it all means for India.

Yes, very interested!

[ajmat]

Some stuff from my ex Army Uncle

1: Possible logic for leaving behind lot of vehicles and equipment behind by USA

Approx 4500 Armoured vehicles are reported to be left behind in Afghanistan. It translates to the following:

312.5 C-17 Aircraft loads (1 C-17 can carry upto 8 vehicles)

C-17 Requires upto 20,000 pounds or 9100 liters per hour
Flying cost approx 61,500USD per hour of flying
Assuming turnaround of 3 hours for flying to nearest base will cost
11,34,67,50,000 USD or approx 111.35 Billion USD without considering other associated costs like refurbishment,

Is it best windfall for Taliban? Not exactly

The MPG or KMPL of average Humvee is 4 to 8 MPG or 1.7 to 3.5 km per litre, considering some fuel reserves left, after a while Taliban will run out of fuel.

Where will the fuel come from?

Pak and China are not oil producers. Iran is not a friend of Taliban and they do not have cash to buy fuel or anything upfront. For China to help, it will have to put in 💰with not adequate assurance of return, the supposed mineral wealth not withstanding.

If sanctions are in place it would be nearly impossible to transport fuel or can be easily targeted.


Arms and ammunition were never in short supply in that region so some additional quantities are hardly going to change things. Can these be sold to the highest bidder?

Yes off course. Largest chunk will come to Pakistan.

Now let's talk about flying machines

The Afghan forces were trained by the Americans using the U.S. military model based on highly technical special reconnaissance units, helicopters and airstrikes. The Afghan army lost superiority to the Taliban when US air support dried up and their ammunition ran out.

Contractors maintained their bombers and attack and transport aircraft throughout the war. By July, most of the 17,000 support contractors had left. A technical issue now meant an aircraft — a Black Hawk helicopter, a C-130 transport, a surveillance drone — would be grounded.

The contractors also took proprietary software and weapons systems with them. They physically removed US helicopter missile-defense system. Access to the software that they relied on to track US vehicles, weapons and personnel also disappeared. Real-time intelligence on targets went out the window, too.

The Taliban fought with snipers and improvised explosive devices while Afghan army lost aerial and laser-guided weapon capacity. And since US could not resupply bases without helicopter support, afghan soldiers often lacked the necessary tools to fight. The Taliban overran many bases; in other places, entire afghan army units surrendered.

However, let us not forget Pakistan is not in a very good economic situation right now. This additional expenditure (although a lucrative opportunity like buying unwanted stuff because it is on sale) won't make things any easy for Pakistan. Not to forget the running and maintainence cost.

Will this additional equipment alter the conventional power balance with India?

Yes, Very marginally.

Will it increase risk for Pakistan and China’s commercial plans in Afghanistan?

Consider this.

Afghanistan is dependent on aid for even paying salary. All money parked abroad has been frozen. It hardly produces anything implying that it will have to buy everything from food to medicine to oil to clothing or any other necessary items.

It has large unskilled of semi skilled population with no money and lots of Guns and ammunition. If China were to step in Uncle SAM'S shoes, it will have to make massive investments with poor prospects for return on investment. Will they do it?

Bottom line, there is lot it than meets the eye. No need to be jumping like popcorn. Watch the events unfold over next one year. It is going to be exciting.

But hard times for the people of Afghanistan..

[mvadg]

From Wikipedia
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taliban_Five

The Taliban Five were long-term Afghan detainees at Guantanamo Bay and formerly high-ranking members of the Taliban government of Afghanistan who, after being held indefinitely without charges, were exchanged for United States Army sergeant Bowe Bergdahl.[1][2] For several years there were rumors that the Obama Presidency's negotiations with the Taliban hinged over the release of these men.[3][4][5][6] The Taliban wanted the men to be sent to Qatar. The United States was reported to be considering freeing them, if the Taliban would release Bowe Bergdahl, a soldier the Taliban had been holding since 2009.[7] The Taliban Five were released to custody in Doha, Qatar on June 1, 2014. Bergdahl, upon his release, was tried by general court-martial on charges of desertion, pleaded guilty, and was sentenced to be dishonorably discharged.

https://youtu.be/AXcHQpG86R4

I doubt the US would release any of the GITMO detainees if they were not sure these people were pro-US. There seem to be so many such people in the top leadership of the Taliban. I suspect they are actually US operatives inside the Taliban, and this is why the US formally disengaged from Afghanistan.

[matizcrazy]

Originally Posted by ajmat

Some stuff from my ex Army Uncle

Much as this sounds like a comfortable status quo for all parties concerned, it is not.
What they tell you is that they have rendered all the left behind equipment non functional or ineffective as war machines; we haven't been told how many such equipment were yet to be disempowered.
They have also left behind a huge number of Afghan soldiers, pilots and trained crews for first line maintenance. It is assumed that being non Taliban, they won't participate in offensive action against other countries, specifically India.
We underestimate the ability of the Taliban to indoctrinate or coerce their subjects.
These war equipment may not be sustainable for protracted combat against a trained army.
However, the implications of their short term deployment against a civilian population and border patrols are being ignored.

[Indian2003]

Originally Posted by nitinsharma1000

Also US does have a history of leaving(or dropping by parachute behind enemy lines) booby trapped ammunition so they use it. There was done in Vietnam I believe. So the ammo looks and feels authentic, but it has a different composition charge instead of the correct type of gun powder. When it is fired out of lets say an AK variant, components of the bolt carrier will normally go through the shooters head and also cause shrapnel for those around.

I remember this being done in Vietnam and the Western press were clapping their hands with glee. Rifles and mortars exploded and hand grenades went off as soon as the pin was pulled.

Then just a few years ago the same press was accusing Bashar al-Assad in Syria of doing the same. They accused him of using dirty tricks against the good terrorists which were supported and armed by the West.

The CIA even had suicide bombing schools in Afghanistan to fo fight the Soviets and now the same suicide bombers are coming back to bite them.

[V.Narayan]

I was off the grid for a few days and return to read this interesting thread. I am no expert on the military value of humvees and Toyota SUVs but I'll add my two paisa worth on the aircraft and artillery pieces. First this is WA University and Reddit College of Higher Sciences at work. The accuracy of this list, in my mind is doubtful. First, this may be the number of these weapons and support equipment that were brought into Afghanistan by the US. It may not be what is necessarily left behind in working order. Second, every Army or Air Force has its procedures to disable weapons they cannot carry out in times of a retreat.

And given that the US Army had several weeks of notice it is most unlikely they would not have disabled every piece that was worth it primarily -- (i) the C-130 large transports that cost, depending on variant and age, over $100mm to $220mm a piece (ii) the A-29 light attack propeller driven anti-insurgent aircraft; (iii) the Blackhawk & Mi-17 transport choppers; (iv) the artillery pieces; and (v) the armoured carriers & mine resistant trucks. The rest is infantry crewed equipment which Afghanistan already has literally lakhs of pieces of. As others on the thread have stated it does not require much physical or time effort to disable a modern aircraft - avionics and if you don't have time an axe in the cockpit or a grenade in the air intake. The Cessna Caravan armed versions, MD530s and the A-29s shown in the chart in post #8 are counter insurgency aircraft. They possess neither the range nor the survival capabilities against an armed force with even the most basic anti-aircraft competence. Once you have physically disabled the avionics and damaged the engines an aircraft is only so much of aluminium and wires and hydraulic lines.

Of real concern are the night vision goggles that may have been left behind in working order. Those can be great assets for infantry men and dangerous in the hands of jihadis in Kashmir.

Our concern is not these infantry weapons. Our concern will be when and if these unemployed fighters, restless for more, are re-organized by other belligerent nations to set off on another 'freedom fight' as mercenaries. But that is beyond the scope of this forum.

[skanchan95]

Most of the American or former- Afghan Air Force equipment left behind at Kabul have been "disabled", some A-29s, C208s, C-130, UH-60s and Mi-17s even flew out to Tajikistan & Uzbekistan. Some Afghan police & army vehicles ended up in Iran also. A handful of helicopters flown by former Afghan AF crews are flying for the resistance in Panjshir. While one pilot recently "defected" back with his Black Hawk to the Taliban.

While the future of these disabled aircraft ay Kabul is debatable, let us remember who are backing the Taliban both economically & militarily- Qatar, Turkey, Pakistan & China! Except may be the A-29, variants of most of these disabled aircraft(or their Chinese knockoffs) are operational with the air arms of these countries. With enough spares & support from these countries, they can be made flyable again. If it is economically viable, that probably will only be the question.

The way US stood by quietly as the Taliban blitzed their way through Afghanistan, I don't expect them to say a word to these four backers of the Taliban either (if they choose to help operationalize the disabled aircraft). What was ironic in the C-17 evacuation flights was how every other country's C-17s were busy getting people out, while Qatar's C-17s were busy getting the Taliban top honchos in!!!!

[am1m]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...al-illiteracy/

An interesting take: "When comparing the Taliban with the United States and its Western allies, the vast majority of Afghans have always viewed the Taliban as the lesser of two evils"

(If not accessible, the gist of the the article: https://www.businessinsider.in/polit...w/85844498.cms)