[thirugata]

Originally Posted by deetee

I was able to construct this downtrending channel over the last few weeks of Nifty candles.

Attachment 2362707

My observation, as per the chart, is that 29th expiry can be between 16700 and 16900. On 30th NIFTY may touch 16600, after that there can be a bounce.
Opinions and discussion are welcome!

Today's high is key, it coincides with 200 Day SMA.

[deetee]

Originally Posted by deetee

I was able to construct this downtrending channel over the last few weeks of Nifty candles.

Attachment 2362707

My observation, as per the chart, is that 29th expiry can be between 16700 and 16900. On 30th NIFTY may touch 16600, after that there can be a bounce.
Opinions and discussion are welcome!

I misread the chart. Candle is inverted hammer. It is coming at bottom of channel, so if this low is not broken with a close below ,i.e, if the open and close of today's session are above 16900, it confirms a reversal. That makes this expiry important. If expiry happens above 17000, it is a strong reversal. On other hand , if session opens above 16900 and expiry happens below 16800, it signals more bearishness.Then we may see 16600 or below in following sessions.

[thirugata]

Originally Posted by thirugata

I am not a EW expert, learner at best.
But what i see is a formation of a double correction.
After a Zigzag correction, if the correction had ended we should have had a 5 wave upmove, instead we had a 3 wave. That hinted that the correction is not over.
So after that, either we are forming a 5 wave down move or we had a trunkated 5th wave and we are in the process of forming a 3 wave upmove. We will know soon i guess. IMHO if the 16825 is not taken out, then we are in wave 4 . So after that we will have a wave 5 and another 3 wave upmove and another 5 wave down move to form another zigzag to complete double correction.
If we see 16825 is taken out we have to consider wave 5 was trunkated and we are in the 3 wave upmove. and another 5 wave down move will be pending whenever 3 wave upmove ends.
Correct me if I am wrong.

Attachment 2318751

This one is for the bearish scenario:

Continuing with the EW count that I had done in June, the 3rd part of the double correction is currently going on and it has turned out to be a flat correction. We have just begun wave C which should be a 5 wave down move.
We have 2 possibilities here, this flat correction might turn out to be running flat, which means June low will be held. That opens up the possibility of more consolidation and this becoming a triple correction. If it takes the June low and becomes extended flat, there is a possibility of 14500 zone.
14500 area is important because this is 123.6% retracement of AB wave and is also 38% retracement of mar 20 - oct 21 range. This zone also has a trendline support.
If this zone breaks, we should have support in 14000 - 13800 zone where 200 WMA and 50 MMA comes in.

This is just an assessment of where we can hope to find support if things go real bad.

[Linuskm]

Originally Posted by thirugata

We have 2 possibilities here, this flat correction might turn out to be running flat, which means June low will be held. That opens up the possibility of more consolidation and this becoming a triple correction. If it takes the June low and becomes extended flat, there is a possibility of 14500 zone.
14500 area is important because this is 123.6% retracement of AB wave and is also 38% retracement of mar 20 - oct 21 range. This zone also has a trendline support.
If this zone breaks, we should have support in 14000 - 13800 zone where 200 WMA and 50 MMA comes in.

[

I remember Rakesh Jhunjhunwala comments some time back in this year saying that we may not see nifty going below 15700 levels in his lifetime, let see if your prediction comes true. I hope not though. I think Nifty was around 15600+ lows and then bounced back.

[deetee]

Originally Posted by Linuskm

I remember Rakesh Jhunjhunwala comments some time back in this year saying that we may not see nifty going below 15700 levels in his lifetime, let see if your prediction comes true. I hope not though. I think Nifty was around 15600+ lows and then bounced back.

Well, as always he was right, wasn't he. It didn't happen in his lifetime, but will happen later. I think, within a year or two we can see about 12000 level.

[Linuskm]

Originally Posted by deetee

Well, as always he was right, wasn't he. It didn't happen in his lifetime, but will happen later. I think, within a year or two we can see about 12000 level.

I am sure he was wanting to live 100yrs when he said that. I do not think it will go down to 12k levels, the foundations are being laid by central government to ensure a good growth for next decade and we should see nifty going up with some intermittent corrections.

[deetee]

Originally Posted by Linuskm

..the foundations are being laid by central government to ensure a good growth for next decade ..

That falls under fundamental research, I don't have much insights into that but from what technicals say, there is high probability of NIFTY going down to that levels.

[thirugata]

Originally Posted by Linuskm

I remember Rakesh Jhunjhunwala comments some time back in this year saying that we may not see nifty going below 15700 levels in his lifetime, let see if your prediction comes true. I hope not though. I think Nifty was around 15600+ lows and then bounced back.

I do not compare my assessment with anyone's assessment in market. Let me say what RJ always says. I have the right to be wrong. And my trade plan always takes into account what I would lose if I am wrong and I am comfortable with it.

[thirugata]

If anyone owns M&M watchout for this. A classic topping out pattern playing out here.

[thirugata]

Originally Posted by thirugata

If anyone owns M&M watchout for this. A classic topping out pattern playing out here.

Attachment 2366495

M&M back to the critical area. RSI is not in favour for a breakdown this time. A sideways move or a lower high possible from here.



And this one is weekly time frame.

[deehunk]

If anyone is getting tempted by stocks of Crude Oil and Silver, stay away for some time.

[deetee]

Originally Posted by thirugata

M&M back to the critical area. RSI is not in favour for a breakdown this time. A sideways move or a lower high possible from here.

I think a sideways move (or a short bump) is more likely but eventually it is poised to breakdown.

On other hand, NIFTY may see about 17800 level, may be in a week or two.

[thirugata]

Originally Posted by deetee

I think a sideways move (or a short bump) is more likely but eventually it is poised to breakdown.

On other hand, NIFTY may see about 17800 level, may be in a week or two.

Yes the beauty of the distribution/accumulation phase is it gives enough opportunity and warning for people to exit when it happens at the end of a rally and to enter at the end of a fall.

[Fx14]

Originally Posted by deehunk

If anyone is getting tempted by stocks of Crude Oil and Silver, stay away for some time.

Could you elaborate little more on the reason for this?

[deehunk]

There was a big fall in the price, so just wrote about it last month. I actually prefer trading commodities like crude oil, aluminium, lead against other options.