[deetee]

Originally Posted by deetee

Based on some rough analysis, I have a feeling that we are going to see a short term bounce to 16100 level this week itself or early next week. Probably Fed may not do a hard landing , atleast for this meeting, as everyone is fearing. That can give some boost to battered sentiments.

Until last Friday, I was short in the market and I exited my positions to book profits and then rollover my position. First part I did, but the second part I didn't (that's a different story). Come Monday, I missed a juicy gap down

However I didn't initiate any fresh positions today, because of conflicting indications.
1. On one side the huge gap down is unsustainable even for medium term. So, if the gap is to be closed/minimised it has to be done this week or early next week. But that means a good 400 point bounce up is needed within next 7 days. Which is possible but only in one case where the feds go soft this week.
2. Lets say the gap remains and index drops - index will then have to break down the dense support of 15500 which is only a 300 point away, which also can happen in couple of sessions - given the present momentum. But, once that support is broken, then index will not likely be able to regain above 15500 atleast for couple of months. It will go onto test the 14500 support. Tracing back 1500 points from there given the downward momentum will be a tough task.

So, between the two, I am more inclined to bet on probability of case 1, however only another day of market action can confirm the short term direction of market. I wouldn't be surprised if market consolidates here for another couple of sessions and then bounces back before dropping hard through this support zone (by which time all the demand here would be exhausted).

[thirugata]

Originally Posted by deetee

So, between the two, I am more inclined to bet on probability of case 1, however only another day of market action can confirm the short term direction of market. I wouldn't be surprised if market consolidates here for another couple of sessions and then bounces back before dropping hard through this support zone (by which time all the demand here would be exhausted).

I was not sure after today's gapdown, if it is a run away gap or formation of island reversal. That we will know after 1 or 2 days of the move as you mentioned. Only factor that is in favour of a halt or reversal is RSI, but in a trending market RSI can remain low/high and market can move swiftly in the direction of the trend.
If how the US markets have opened is any indication, looks like it will be a run away gap which might not be filled. Will have to wait and see what the global market indication is for tomorrow based on how they close today.

[thirugata]

We are Team BHP, driving and travel enthusiasts & this is a thread about stock market. So here I make an attempt to combine these topics in this post.

Similarities between driving & stock market:

1) On road anyone who drives faster than you is reckless and anyone driving slower is nuisance.
In stock market anyone who earns more than you is a gambler and anyone who earns less knows nothing.

2) While driving we choose the best route based on the time of the day or weather condition so that we reach our destination safely and quickly.
In stock market we choose when and which stock to buy at what time and sell at what time so that we reach our target at the earliest without making losses.


Similarities between travel & stock market:

2 or more people can go to same destination at the same time and come back with different perspectives/stories.
(There are enough travelogues here where group of people have gone together to the same place and written beautiful blogs which show different perspective about same place).
Similarly, people can have a look at same parameters / stocks / chart and can have different opinion about it.

If you can think more such similarities do share, it would be an interesting read.

[deetee]

Originally Posted by thirugata

1) On road anyone who drives faster than you is reckless and anyone driving slower is nuisance.
In stock market anyone who earns more than you is a gambler and anyone who earns less knows nothing.

2) While driving we choose the best route based on the time of the day or weather condition so that we reach our destination safely and quickly.
In stock market we choose when and which stock to buy at what time and sell at what time so that we reach our target at the earliest without making losses.

On major difference is, on the road, every action of us will and can affect us along with other road users. In markets, every action of us primarily affects us only. Thinking conversely, while driving/ or even standing on the road, you can involve in an accident for no fault of yours. Whereas, in markets you never face an accident because, everything is a direct result of our and only our actions. Worst scenario on the roads is death, while worst scenario in the markets is complete wipe out - first case is a full stop , second case need not be and can be completely avoidable as well. Markets are a lot better than roads ( they didn't close even during lockdown )

[thirugata]

Nasdaq is coming closer to support zone and over sold.
It is also closer to 61.8% retracement from Nov highs - Mar 20 Low move.
We also have 200 Weekly moving avg support in this zone.
We may expect short/medium term bottom formation here.

https://twitter.com/kiranirao/status...15539279138816

[thirugata]

Looks like the question is when and not if.

[deetee]

Market analysis these days

[thirugata]

Looks like a fresh breakdown in crude oil. I see major support at 7300 - 7000 range where it completes 50% retracement from Dec -21 to Mar -22 rally. Also there is 20 DMA support in this area.

[deetee]

By end of session today, Nifty has formed a dark cloud cover pattern. This came after a local maxima is tested three times. It needs another session to confirm the reversal, but given the context and overbought market, I think it's a reversal.

Sensex also formed a weak dark cloud cover but has tested its peak thrice too. The drop below 60k mark is a psychological blow to bulls. So, I think this is it and we are at the beginning of another leg of correction.

I took short position towards yesterday session close, and it played out nice. Holding a small short with hedge to see how it goes.

[thanixravindran]

Originally Posted by deetee

I think this is it and we are at the beginning of another leg of correction.

I took short position towards yesterday session close, and it played out nice. Holding a small short with hedge to see how it goes.

A question about VIP industries. I see it is rallying sharply since a week but couldn't find any special reason or even any coverage by major brokerage. Is it just manipulation going on or its just bull market rally?

[deetee]

Originally Posted by thanixravindran

A question about VIP industries. I see it is rallying sharply since a week but couldn't find any special reason or even any coverage by major brokerage. Is it just manipulation going on or its just bull market rally?

I don't know about manipulation but it seems stock bounced off from a support zone of 600-580. It was overbought and looks like today's session can be a bearish engulfing at local maxima, which is a good reversal. But the support zone between 600-580 has to be breached for any further fall. Next support seems to be at 540-520 region, beyond that is another long fall.

Edit: going by present techincals, stock 'might' breach the 600-580 region and hit 540 levels.

[deetee]

The much anticipated bloodbath has finally happened! Another bloody friday but it was all there in the signs. Nifty couldn't yet break a key support , hovered above it towards end of the session. It is highly probable that NIFTY can open gap down on Monday(maybe below 17480) to take this resistance down and if so, it can be another 200 point red candle . In the chart below, it can be seen that today NIFTY touched the bottom of the long upward channel that has been propelling it since June's lows. So, if Monday sees a gap down below that channel, I wouldn't be surprised if it turns out be a bloody Monday. Dow is also not looking very healthy, I think it may hit 30600 level during today trading.

[SmartCat]

Originally Posted by thirugata

Looks like a fresh breakdown in crude oil. I see major support at 7300 - 7000 range where it completes 50% retracement from Dec -21 to Mar -22 rally. Also there is 20 DMA support in this area.

Originally Posted by deetee

The much anticipated bloodbath has finally happened!

Gents, do you look at S&P500? What does this chart tell you? Is it "weaker" than NIFTY?

[deetee]

Originally Posted by SmartCat

Gents, do you look at S&P500? What does this chart tell you? Is it "weaker" than NIFTY?

S&P and DJI are both similar, aren't they. DJI has a little more downside in coming days(maybe 400-500 points) before some retracement can happen. S&P may behave proportionately. As for the weakness, I think US markets are behaving as they should. Going along a steady correction. They 'appear' weaker but can also pull back strongly. It's the Indian markets that perplexes me. I am not that versed with fundamentals so can't discuss on the reasons for the present bullishness but I still think a long correction is in store for NIFTY - don't know how or when it will happen. Have to watch it as it unfolds.

Edit: there is a fair chance for S&P to dip below 3800 in nearterm if it tags along DJI.
Edit 2: (offtopic) A few weeks back I was talking to a close friend and disclosed that I believe INFY will hit 950 levels. That seems more probable now.

[thirugata]

Originally Posted by SmartCat

Gents, do you look at S&P500? What does this chart tell you? Is it "weaker" than NIFTY?

Attachment 2358752

I am not much of a predictor. I am reactive trader and I react to what i see in the chart. Now, attempting to answer your question, if i compare the monthly chart of Nifty and S&P, S&P looks like is coming back to retest the channel it broke and is closer to 50 monthly moving avg, where as Nifty is away from support levels. So Nifty has certainly stayed stronger.
But if i play devil's advocate, if there is any down side S&P has 2 supports close by i.e 50 MMA and channel line where as Nifty has none, so scope for downside becomes higher.