[Silver Knight]

Honorable Prime Minister of India announced 21 days lockdown in the country. PM Modi announced a complete lockdown to battle Covid 19 in the country . Entire country will be under lockdown till 14th April 2020.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com...w/74796908.cms

PM in his announced that even the most developed countries in the world crumbled in front of Covid 19. Let us all fight against this pandemic together.

[Starfire]

A 21 day Lockdown is a great decision taken. Considering that the Incubation period of COVID-19 is at max 14 days, the additional 7 days buffer gives us a great chance to control the Virus growth at a community level.

Also, 21 days has been chosen wisely as to when considering Italy/Spain as study models, the virus spreads with a cumulative effect rather than an arithmetic effect, once it reaches stage 3.

Example:

The Viral numbers DON'T increase by 2, 3, 4, 5, 6... 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006,...

The Viral Number DO increase as 2, 4, 16, 32, 64... 2001, 4002, 8004, 16008, 32016, 64032, 128064,...

At this rate, we'll have lakhs of cases by Mid May if not curbed. Sharing below are the projection numbers plotted on a chart and why the 21 day lock down is essential. This is the main reason why we amongst our doctor circles fear the worst for our patients and the mass population. I'm sure fellow Bhpian Dr. Vivek will agree with me.

The only thing I hope is that the Govt gives some monetary benefit to the poor labour class who live for the day by earning wages on a daily basis. They all need money by the govt to survive if not working themselves.

[sunilch]

Originally Posted by Starfire

A 21 day Lockdown is a great decision taken. Considering that the Incubation period of COVID-19 is at max 14 days, the 7 days buffer gives us a great chance to clear out the Virus at a community level.

Also, 21 days has been chosen wisely as to when considering Italy/Spain as study models, the virus spreads with a cumulative effect rather than an arithmetic effect, once it reaches stage 3.

Also these 21 days will allow the governments to ramp up medical facilities to the required level. Slow growth of the virus is our best option at present.

[rahulcmoulee]

Will grocery shops be open? If not, it is very short notice to stock up for a 3 week lockdown. Grocery shops near my house already had empty shelves. This is going to lead to a flooding of people at supermarkets tonight.

[V.Narayan]

For a country larger, in population terms, than Europe + North America together this is a bold decision and in the circumstances the only way to slow down the spread. our population is too large and our medical infrastructure too sparse to do what South Korea or Italy or France have done. This way the PM has made every citizen a front line soldier in this fight. Regardless of our political views lets join hands and make this a success. My only concern is that the police behave like public servants and not like bullies. Let's see. Jai Hind.

[fiestarry]

This is a very forward thinking move by the PM and his team. It would be catastrophic in a country like India if the virus is allowed to spread. We must all pitch in and perform our roles with great responsibility. The welfare of others is at stake if we behave foolishly. Let us not continue to find political and religious reasons to flout the rules and restrictions. Let us help the Govt in defeating this dreaded enemy.

[Thad E Ginathom]

I appreciate the intention, I admire the delivery, and I agree with the necessity of social distancing to the point of curfew, and in a serious way. Even until today, my wife and I have been thinking, but hey, the maid can come, she isn't working for anyone else. So today I thought: she can come; And stay. Or she can go home; and stay. So we decided our home means our home; her home means her home. That is the word and the spirit of the restriction. (She will be paid, by the way, in full).

But there are practicalities. Previously announced State restrictions included provision for going out for food. I don't think the PM expects us to starve instead of dying from the virus. He did announce that essential supplies would be available. We have not had the opportunity to shop for three weeks provisions.

Mind you, there are other considerations here. Imagine being the local shopkeeper who has to deal with everyone's cash, everyone's breath, everyone's sneeze, everyone's germs. And who can't help but mix them together on their hands and include them on the handled purchases. The shopkeeper, the cashier, is taking risks like hospital front-line staff!

[SS-Traveller]

Guidelines related to the 21-day lockdown:

[Chetan_Rao]

It would've been much better (I'd say CRITICAL) to shut essentials down for a day or two as well until they figured out how to rationalize it (if they don't already), then reopened them with the new plan in place. Limited entry to shops at a time, everyone allowed to buy only a reasonable amount of supplies per head, whatever other measures were needed to ensure minimal/no hoarding. Other countries/places are doing it, so we have reference points.

The most critical thing to avoid right now, the whole point of the exercise, ISOLATION, has been defeated in minutes with millions of people rushing to markets and potentially spiking our infection curve manifold.

A good chunk of what we wanted to achieve in 21 days has possibly already been undone before it even started.

[Behemoth]

Originally Posted by Starfire

Example:

The Viral numbers DON'T increase by 2, 3, 4, 5, 6... 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006,...

The Viral Number DO increase as 2, 4, 16, 32, 64... 2001, 4002, 8004, 16008, 32016, 64032, 128064,...

A slight correction to this. The Covid-19 virus has a R Naught number of 3. Which means that instead of a base number of 2 exponential it is 3 exponential. The R Naught number is a measure of the spread rate of a virus and measures how many people on average a single person infects.
To give an example, a disease with R Naught of 2 will affect 1024 people in 10 transmission cycles (2^10) whereas Covid 19 will affect 59049 people in 10 transmission cycles (3^10). If you want to understand this concept you can watch the movie Contagion.
Also what makes the Covid 19 virus even worse is that it has a 21 days cycle in average after infection and in the first 6-7 days most people are asymptomatic but infectious. Hence the need for minimum of 21 days lockdown is required. But in my opinion the lockdown period may extend as long as 4 months.
UK is contemplating a 6 month lockdown.
Stay safe guys and be prepared. We are all in for a long haul - The world will be very different after this pandemic.

[Durango Dude]

Reminds me of that song from Bobby: "Hum Tum ek kamare me bandh ho aur chaabi kho jai" It's probably the longest national layoff and is unprecedented, only hope it works well for all parties concerned: India being a democracy people may get restless as the lock down prolongs with logistical/law and order problems. Hope Corona 'catch 22' situation is broken by this lock down. As I have said earlier put all impulsive big ticket expenses on the back burner and sit it out at home however difficult and stifling it may seem. This is going to burn a big hole in the national & individual wallet's. The aim is not to come out unscathed but alive and healthy. One thing is not to over eat when sitting at home as your mind can play games and foodies will find themselves raiding the kitchen and the fridge more often. Exercise at home and follow a strict diet.

[TROOPER]

Had expected a lockdown after viewing the PM's previous Janata Curfew adress. Just didn't expect it to be for 21 days. Quite bold IMO.

This one's going to be a real test of patience. Yes, it'll hurt the underprivileged and all I can hope is the governments, center and states, take care of them, for once at least, if not always.

We haven't done any kind of hoarding, just have enough for a week, ten days max maybe. Hope Amazon will streamline their delivery system with current roadblocks by then. Have decided to ditch veggies and fruits, no point risking it out. Will survive on cereals, grams and pulses for the next 3 weeks. Have sent our maid on an indefinite paid leave since last Sunday.

Hope we can fight through this and come out unscathed and stronger as a nation.

Originally Posted by Behemoth

A slight correction to this. The Covid-19 virus has a R Naught number of 3. ...... Hence the need for minimum of 21 days lockdown is required. But in my opinion the lockdown period may extend as long as 4 months.
UK is contemplating a 6 month lockdown.
Stay safe guys and be prepared. We are all in for a long haul - The world will be very different after this pandemic.

Another issue is even after lockdown, there's no assurance there won't be any severe outbreaks. Not unless a vaccine is around. Feel like it could become a norm. If not, movement will be restricted upto some extent.

[xway]

I read many mentioning this as a very big step, which will cause a lot of inconvenience.
Groceries, Milk, Supplies, Medicines so many items of necessities are required and many people have doubts and valid apprehensions regarding the announcement.

But, even with all this it is nowhere remotely close to the lurking dangers. In fact people should follow it even if it means having a single meal and staying alive somehow.

We have already seen the plight of wealthy nations with sparse populations.

Now think if anything of that sort happens in India with humongous population which is illiterate, lack of facilities and infratructure.

If this goes out of hand we will not have enough resources to even burn the countless bodies.

We all can not even imaging this in the worst of our dreams and hence are not giving it the ultra dangerous once in a life time or centuries incident.

Think if it reaches lakhs of people, it will become unstoppable to spread to crores, and its already in thousands realistically (traced or untraced)

There are not enough masks right now - how will even there will be beds ?
forget ventilators or ICUs.
There will not be enough to burn or bury bodies.

Best is to stay uptight and locked as there is no alternative, another step and it will be doom.

[naveenroy]

Respect. For having taken this decision without too much hesitation. I wish he would also be forthright about having a meeting everyday - pass on information, quash rumours etc. That will go a long way in keeping the population grounded and not panicky.

Wish it had been the same here.

[bluevolt]

Testing times indeed.

The situation is now turning very dramatic. Let's pray that these 21 days improve the conditions and the virus doesn't spread further.

Let's also hope that people don't lose their senses and respect the lockdown.