[poloman]

Your PF may earn only 7% interest for the financial year. This will be a huge hit to the salaried class.
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com...w/75092943.cms

[GTO]

An excellent article on a company that has seen unprecedented growth during this pandemic. I frankly hadn't even heard of Zoom till 2 weeks back, and now literally, everyone is going Zoom, Zoom, Zoom:

Bloomberg Article

A month ago his company was merely a fast-growing success story in the somewhat boring universe of enterprise communications. Today, suddenly, Zoom is critical infrastructure. As billions of people around the world socially distance to blunt the toll of the coronavirus, those lucky enough to still have jobs are trying to work them from home. To do so, they’re turning to remote collaboration tools; messaging platforms such as Slack and videoconferencing software like Cisco Webex, Microsoft Teams, and, especially, Zoom, have seen explosions in traffic. “Every day is a record,” Yuan says. Zoom’s daily users, 10 million in December, now number 200 million. The company’s share price has climbed 72% in the same period—doubling from early February to late March before dropping off—even as markets and the global economy have been pummeled.

[fache89]

Originally Posted by Chetan_Rao

Prepare to hear a lot of 'Oh but I didn't imagine my livelihood would be lost when I said that!'.

What is the difference between a Recession and Depression?

If your neighbour loses his job, it's a Recession, but if you lose your job it is a Depression.

I am certain we have a massive depression in the horizon.

Every Industry will cave in to the pressure. I work in a 150 year old mining company which mines Iron Ore , Aluminium and other precious metals. In a depression like scenario, Infrastructure would take a massive hit. Thus, construction may not be a priority for governments. Automobile segment will nosedive as people will no longer buy cars. Boeing and Airbus will notice Airplane productions would literally come to a standstill. Even Retail giants like Coke and Pepsi would lower procuring Aluminium because they would no longer need to churn out copious Coke Cans. This will be absolute debacle for mining industry.

Even industries like Farming, Utilities and Healthcare which are considered Recession resistant will take a heavy beating. With the collapse of Hotels, Restaurants and Catering (HORECA), it will have a cascading effect right till the bottom of the chain as the farmers will no longer get apt price for their produce. The reduction in use of electricity and water would mean the budgets of utility companies would go for a toss. They can't remain in deficit for a long time. Healthcare appears recession proof, but things like Dental and Lasic Surgery would hit a wall. Even FMCG companies which appear to be recession proof will see their numbers dwindling. Because if people have to buy milk, they would only buy Milk. Ice creams, cheese, flavored milk etc would see considerable decline. This will be pervasive across the spectrum. I.T is just a support function for the primary business. If Manufacturing, Retail, Education etc go down, then I.T companies will inexorably implode.

A collapse of such monumental proportions often leads to a clash. Countries might want to go 'Kinetic' to capitalize on the vulnerabilities of their adversaries. Kinetic at a country level means War. This is what history shows.

Do not make the mistake of comparing 2020 crisis to 2008. It must be compared to 1929 depression. At the time, the stock market fell by 89%. It came back to it's original levels in 1954. We are in this for a long haul.

[AZT]

Originally Posted by born_free

Stocks markets over-reacted...

Opportunist are buying stocks all over world to take large stakes in companies whose stocks were hammered recklessly during downturn.

Retail investors have far less say in market movement than they believe. A lot of the movement is Algo trading, Hedge Funds and FII momentum investing. There is also the information asymmetry where they get news before the lay man following CNBC so they will exit at the first sign of trouble, it's too soon to stay when the market will bottom out or if it over reacted.

Originally Posted by sindabad.sailor

I am keenly trying to understand what various countries would like to do other than on economic front, once these difficult times end.
I'm not sure whether this answers your question but rent control and a Universal Basic Income are things that are back in discussion. Eg. A bailout is not going to put people back in planes so the solutions will need to be such that maximum benefit reaches the people at the bottom. For the US in particular, healthcare costs are through the roof so making healthcare affordable is a major policy point there.

Originally Posted by lapis_lazuli

In the meanwhile, People's Bank of China buys 1% stake in HDFC Bank.

https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/bu...c-5135931.html

These headlines are misleading. A better way to put this would be they already had a stake and increased it by averaging down.

[SilentEngine]

Originally Posted by GTO

An excellent article on a company that has seen unprecedented growth during this pandemic. I frankly hadn't even heard of Zoom till 2 weeks back, and now literally, everyone is going Zoom, Zoom, Zoom:

Having tried variety of video conferencing solutions at work (Webex, GoToMeeting, Skype, Hangouts etc), I can say Zoom is the simplest to use of all. On that topic, it is the 'Apple' of video conferencing world.

[roby_dk]

While all industries have been affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, some bear the brunt of the downturn much more than others. We have numerous post on how various sectors like Aviation, Hospitality, Transportation, Construction, Tourism etc. to name a few are affected by the deadly virus.


What I was thinking are there any sectors which are unscathed or say least impacted by corona pandemic?

As of now Telecom and Health comes to my mind. The social distancing seems to aid the Telecom sector as we are consuming more data. Similarly many countries focus has been shifted to Health/Pharma including India hence we might have heavy investment and development across health industry.

There will be some sector which might quickly recover once the situation is in control and some will take much longer time.

[CarJunki]

Originally Posted by GTO

An excellent article on a company that has seen unprecedented growth during this pandemic. I frankly hadn't even heard of Zoom till 2 weeks back, and now literally, everyone is going Zoom, Zoom, Zoom:

Bloomberg Article

The increase in usage is mostly driven by time-limited free conferencing. Cisco WebEx is much better but offers no free version. Also there was one from Blue Jeans network and similarly they had paid only options.

This free feature availability (even if limited in time duration of meeting) is attracting but will stay as temporary gain. Any company that decides to move more on remote collaboration will evaluate diligently on commercial as well as security parameters.

So not a time to go shopping for Zoom stocks (not sure if they are listed).

[locusjag]

Originally Posted by GTO

An excellent article on a company that has seen unprecedented growth during this pandemic. I frankly hadn't even heard of Zoom till 2 weeks back, and now literally, everyone is going Zoom, Zoom, Zoom

My landlord called from the United States this morning; he was worried about there having been incidents in the last week wherein criminals have welcomed themselves to and hijacked corporate meetings or have recorded confidential information that was being shared in the meetings. He was asking what I use in my company, and I told him it's Cisco's Webex all the way in my organization. He didn't tell me if Zoom was the software in use during these incidents; all he said is that the security aspect of such software shouldn't be overlooked. (I've never asked him where he works though!)

Zoom is helping lots of people employed in small/medium industries keep their jobs and is even helping friends and family connect in this uncertain time. I hope it is secure as well. Costly data leaks are not what small industries can afford in a depression!

[Chetan_Rao]

Zoom is not a one-size-fits-all solution, and some of the vulnerabilities are due to both user error (not securing meetings appropriately) and version limitations (free version may not be fully-featured, and I don't mean just the user-facing options).

That isn't to say there aren't vulnerabilities in the product itself, but it isn't alone. Cisco's Webex, one of the most popular web conferencing tools, has had its own share of stuff, including issues with unauthorized access back in Jan 2020 and more recently, vulnerabilities in their media player/recording plugins in March 2020.

The key is how quickly the product owner moves to patch these vulnerabilities.

[vibbs]

Sorry for noob question. How exactly are these different from skype? We use Skype for business in our company.

Infact recently due to the security issues propping up, we have instructions not to use zoom unless it's a client requirement.

[ValarMorghulis]

Originally Posted by vibbs

Sorry for noob question. How exactly are these different from skype? We use Skype for business in our company.

Infact recently due to the security issues propping up, we have instructions not to use zoom unless it's a client requirement.

In terms of security, if Skype is Fort Knox, Zoom is like storing your money under a potted plant.

[CarJunki]

Originally Posted by roby_dk

As of now Telecom and Health comes to my mind. The social distancing seems to aid the Telecom sector as we are consuming more data.

Healthcare will largely be isolated from impact (some segments like dental care will get hit badly).

Telecom: Don't put your money yet, increased data usage has not really increased revenue of companies. Please keep in mind we do have all you can eat type of packages. The amount of GB's that are coming bundled is amazing, at least in India. At the last count there are 45+ countries where these all you can use packages are available. The second part is most of the increase in consumption is happening over wired connections. Those were already priced as progressively lower tariff per GB of usage.

I do not see any particular sector benefiting not even Pharma.

At this juncture, it is better to observe than predict. Any financial prediction right now will make weather predictions look more precise.

Unfortunately when last time world had a reset back to basics, it was not truly connected the way it is today. So any parallels drawn should be with enough caution.

[Warwithwheels]

The telecom industry is undergoing a different type of challenge in the other parts of the world. Many 5G towers were destroyed by miscreants based on social media rumours.

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article...onavirus-qanon

[v1p3r]

Originally Posted by CarJunki

So not a time to go shopping for Zoom stocks (not sure if they are listed).

You're right, that time may have already passed.

[V.Narayan]

Here are my thoughts on the Indian economy only for 2020-21 and maybe a little while after. I realize I am sticking my neck out with this vain attempt and those who disagree strongly might put me on the guillotine stand. Just my thoughts...nothing you don't know.

1. For 2020-21 ie the current fiscal I believe GDP growth will be negative. The first time since 1979. How much negative is hard to say but -2% to -5% could easily happen. By 3rd May, 2/3rds of the economy would have been shut or almost so for 1/10th of the year.
   
   
2. 2021-22 may look good in GDP growth but given the reduced base it would mean we will come back to level we were at in Feb'20.
   
   
3. A world crises usually means flight of capital to safety. That almost always strengthens the US$. I would not be surprised if the INR depreciates to 80 in 3 months and 85 in 9 months.
   
   
4. Other than the air travel/tourism sector another one to be badly hit will be real estate. Some real estate projects will fold up to the detriment of those of us who booked apartments in them.
   
   
5. All export industries and services will witness a serious contraction of demand. How much can vary by company and industry but contractions between 15% to 50% for the next 9 months look realistic.
   
   
6. Risk of India's credit rating being revised exists. May not happen but it would impede our ability to borrow abroad and attract FII money if it happened.
   
   
7. The Govt remains tardy at releasing payments to suppliers. This could worsen despite proclamations. As the Govt's coffers get shallower expect more tax litigation which sadly is already at an all time high.

On the positive side:

Govt will announce policies to stimulate the economy....Oil looks like it will stay cheap....our large home market and (now) efficient DBT will give the economy bounce....good time for a fiscal deficit.....ideal time to launch reforms if the political will is there.

Look forward to inputs from members.