[V.Narayan]

^^^^^^
I do believe China has fudged its figures of cases and deaths. Given that the infection was spreading for at least two months before they recognized it and given how contagious it is it is hard to believe that China has had only 85k odd cases while even a small country such as Israel (which I assume is efficient at data collection & monitoring) has reported 120k+ cases. But on the other hand why bother about China when we are well on our way to the gold medal soon!

[Sutripta]

Originally Posted by V.Narayan

But on the other hand why bother about China when we are well on our way to the gold medal soon!

Alway a good idea to keep an eye on the competition/ benchmark!

Sutripta

[DigitalOne]

Originally Posted by Cessna182

Does anyone find it surprising that the Chinese have managed to grow while the rest of the world is down with a recession?

Originally Posted by msdivy

In China, the origin of the virus was from a single source, which is Wuhan. Once the single source was cut-off the spread was contained.

Originally Posted by V.Narayan

^^^^^^
I do believe China has fudged its figures of cases and deaths. Given that the infection was spreading for at least two months before they recognized it and given how contagious it is it is hard to believe that China has had only 85k odd cases while even a small country such as Israel (which I assume is efficient at data collection & monitoring) has reported 120k+ cases.

On top of the fudging numbers, the fact that the biggest of China Beijing and Shanghai were hardly affected is unbelievable!! As late as February, there were tourists from Wuhan in distant Italy or Spain, but nobody travelled from Wuhan to Beijing/Shanghai ?

As of today, the number of people who died in Beijing and Shanghai is 9 and 7 respectively.
---

Please read this Associated Press investigation on how China repeatedly fudged and blocked information of the initial outbreak.

[msdivy]

Originally Posted by DigitalOne

On top of the fudging numbers, the fact that the biggest of China Beijing and Shanghai were hardly affected is unbelievable!! As late as February, there were tourists from Wuhan in distant Italy or Spain, but nobody travelled from Wuhan to Beijing/Shanghai ?

Wuhan was cut-off on Jan 23. Anybody who travelled back from Wuhan before that were quarantined. It is possible that the outbreak was contained by end of Feb.

As of today, the number of people who died in Beijing and Shanghai is 9 and 7 respectively.

Can't say about total infected. But deaths are definitely higher. Based on the cremation data, deaths could be on the range of 30,000 to 40,000. This is primarily from Wuhan. No idea on Beijing / Shanghai split.

[TheCatalyst]

Here's a good read with some practical suggestions by RBI ex-Governor Raghuram Rajan about the recent GDP shock numbers and the state of economy.

link

India needs strong growth, not just to satisfy the aspirations of our youth but to keep our unfriendly neighbors at bay. The recent pick-up in sectors like autos is not evidence of the much-awaited V-shaped recovery. It reflects pent-up demand, which will fade as we go down to the true level of demand in the damaged, partially-functioning, economy. No doubt, the government and its bureaucrats are working hard as always, but they need to be frightened out of their complacency and into meaningful activity. If there is a silver lining in the awful GDP numbers, hopefully it is that

[PGA]

Originally Posted by msdivy

Based on the cremation data, deaths could be on the range of 30,000 to 40,000. This is primarily from Wuhan. No idea on Beijing / Shanghai split.

Originally Posted by V.Narayan

I do believe China has fudged its figures of cases and deaths.

But on the other hand why bother about China when we are well on our way to the gold medal soon!

Sir somehow Iam not able to digest that China could hide death of such a large numbers. No doubt it is a police state, it can fudge data but it also has many expats working there, it has foreign correspondents, it has a population which accesses the world through VPN. To me this sounds too simple an explanation for such a problem. Maybe the truth will emerge with time. But is this also possible,
- that China is a much more disciplined society and given its experience of eating all kinds of abominable natural creatures it took the precautions early and more seriously than the rest of the world. A cursory scan will reveal that disciplined societies or the ones having greater faith in their Govts have done considerably better than the others.
- since it's now almost confirmed that Covid 19 is not a novel corona virus its population already had greater immunity because of past outbreaks of SARS et al.

In our context gold medal always seemed a given due to our social, cultural and political milieu. There are two aspects I would be concerned of first is much higher fatality count in population below 50 years and secondly fait accompli attitude which a has developed in large sections of our society.

[avishar]

China might be fudging numbers of deaths but they are not fudging numbers of their economy. They are indeed galloping ahead, infact China's business sentiment and growth is much higher than it was a year ago, when their economy was cooling off.

There are many indicators, their raw material imports are growing fast, MNCs operating in China are reporting high-growth of consumer products and cars, stuff like aircraft movement tracked by websites like Flightradar show fast rebound in domestic aviation growth and China's exports has shown double-digit growth.

But then China is not the only country which has managed to control COVID. Our neighbours have too. While Pakistan might be a touchy subject, I see that Bangladesh has been successful with regards to COVID. Sri Lanka has been a standout performer in the region. Other dense developing/middle income countries like Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, Egypt, South America, Nigeria etc also seem to have controlled COVID.

[DigitalOne]

Some bit of good news trickling in; hope this sustains.

IT firms set for quick recovery as tech spend picks up in US, Europe

As Covid hastens digital transformation, clients even paying vendors in advance
Indian IT services companies, which receive most of their revenues from the US and Europe, may see a recovery faster than other sectors as spending picks up by clients pushing for enhanced digital play and taking advantage of the benign credit conditions in developed markets.

[v1p3r]

Well, now we know that the coronavirus has had no recorded impact on the unorganised sector, and no lives have been recorded as lost.

[ABHI_1512]

Originally Posted by v1p3r

Well, now we know that the coronavirus has had no recorded impact on the unorganised sector, and no lives have been recorded as lost.

Just as only 49 lakh people have been infected till date and rest is okay compared to other countries, after one of the most stringent and longest lockdowns ever in the history

[Gsynch]

Originally Posted by ABHI_1512

Just as only 49 lakh people have been infected till date and rest is okay compared to other countries, after one of the most stringent and longest lockdowns ever in the history

What a pity! I guess that's why we need something like NPR, NRC etc. to track floating population between states and their home base.

[hothatchaway]

Originally Posted by Gsynch

What a pity! I guess that's why we need something like NPR, NRC etc. to track floating population between states and their home base.

Seriously? From an administration which still cannot figure out how to get accurate and on time data on economic activity?

[Gsynch]

Originally Posted by hothatchaway

Seriously? From an administration which still cannot figure out how to get accurate and on time data on economic activity?

I believe so, if we don't have systems to track, how can one arrive at a number? Local bodies don't have it, states don't have it and center doesn't have it either. If a migrant was travelling on feet from Delhi to UP there is no way for either Delhi or UP government to know. Center obvisouly can't have this data as it couldn't have been shared by respective state governments.

[sachinayak]

Originally Posted by Gsynch

I believe so, if we don't have systems to track, how can one arrive at a number?

I know we are seriously getting off topic, but isn't this what an AADHAR ID (Biometric ID) supposed to be doing. A country should have 1 ID - whether it is Ration Card or PAN Card or Aadhar Card or Passport or anything else. Citizens cannot be running pillar to post to prove anything. If there is a flaw in an existing system e.g. folks had multiple PAN cards, then fix it using technology e.g. Biometrics. No point of having different implementations each time.

[Sutripta]

Originally Posted by Gsynch

What a pity! I guess that's why we need something like NPR, NRC etc. to track floating population between states and their home base.

This lack of data is a serious problem. Ideally we should migrate towards a mandatory GPS (or IRNSS) based tracking collar for all travellers. A full fledged envy of the world surveillance state.

But till such time the A. Setu app should do quite nicely. And link it with Aadhar which has biometric identification information. And Hikvision, though Chinese owned, has a manufacturing plant in India, and is the worlds largest manufacturer of security cameras. And if we don't like Chinese face recognition software I'm sure we can buy it from elsewhere.

NPR etc would be icing on the cake preventing foreigners from illegally entering our country and posing as migrant workers.

Sutripta