[rdst_1]

Originally Posted by antz.bin

I guess that IS the end goal. Make sure those who work make at least more than the basic minimum that UBI pays. This means only the willing will work, not the needy.

With a substantial portion of the working population taken out of the job market (lower supply, same demand), those who do intend to work will get more responsibility and higher wages.

If the farmers can no longer attract cheap human labour, they either increase the wages, or go for mechanized farming. This increases the demand for manufacturing and leads to better and higher paying jobs being available. This will also give a boost to manufacturing GDP and take the burden to support 45% of the population of India away from the sector which contributes just 15% to the GDP.

As a downside, we do lose one of our biggest strengths as a nation, that of cheap labour. But then, we all would rather be paid more for our quality work than have that *non* strength. China happened to have the same strength till about a decade back, we still can't compete with them even though the minimum wage in India is 1/3 of that of the lowest in China.

You do have to take into consideration other aspects as well. The one I am particularly pointing towards is environmental degradation. More money and higher manufacturing GDP contribution sound great but shouldn't come at a cost of the environment, which it always does, mostly due to corruption. Already agriculture and our insane population has reduced our forest cover to much lower than necessary. In my honest opinion, no matter how much we advance or develop by destroying nature, we will never have enough money unless we do something about our population. We like comparing ourselves or aspiring to become a developed nation, but the hard truth is that it will never happen unless we get serious about controlling our population. By going the way of increasing irresponsible manufacturing to generate more money, we will be only further condemning ourselves.

[Miyata]

Originally Posted by SmartCat

So if we extend this phenomenon to Universal Basic Income, then it is quite likely that large monthly cash transfers will cause significantly distortions in low-end labour market (Eg: textiles, construction etc)

Very true. While the idea of universal basic income has been getting some traction the world over, it is unlikely to occur in India in the foreseeable future.

At our farm too getting labor has become challenging. The young chaps are mostly interested in moving about on two-wheelers to which they now have easy access. The older folks (about 45+) do continue to work like they used to and really are the backbone there. The situation is such, the basic transfer of knowledge from one gen to next is getting hampered - chain of knowledge transmission is getting snapped.

I know one farmer in the US with about 700 acres of land. Even with their basic social security and unemployment benefits, he relies totally of Mexicans and other immigrants for any labor! If Mexicans do not come to the US, he says, he would have no way to get work done!

Overall, it appears, except for few special cases, the idea of UBI is likely to lead ourselves shooting in the foot!

[AZT]

Originally Posted by antz.bin

This means only the willing will work, not the needy.

The problem we are facing is even the willing don't have work. With our population in a shrinking economy there will never be enough jobs which eventually leads to wage suppression. You can call it unemployment benefit / Social Security / UBI etc, countries around the world have made it work.

In the US one of their presidential contenders Andrew Yang brought UBI to the limelight there and now with people receiving their $1200 monthly relief cheques, this idea is no longer alien because even those previously opposing it could well lose their jobs now. No one should have to worry about how they will put food on the table and this is just that, a very basic income.

Leaving a brilliant article I'd read while back which sheds some good light
https://www.livemint.com/Opinion/6Kb...-has-come.html

Bank of America calls top of cash mountain, cautions on 'fake markets'

LONDON (Reuters) - Analysts at BofA said the cash mountain stockpiled by investors during the coronavirus outbreak looks to have now peaked and cautioned that rampant central bank stimulus was fixing bond prices and creating “fake markets”.

...

The bank’s analysts calculated that for the past 8 weeks central banks around the world have been buying a staggering $2.4 billion of financial assets an hour.
“Government and corporate bond prices have been fixed by central banks.. Why would anyone expect stocks to price rationally,” they said.

Read More: https://in.reuters.com/article/us-gl...-idINKBN22Y15G

[Miyata]

Some indirect effect on the economy - Industry 4.0 and Cybersecurity.

HOW THE CORONAVIRUS IS ACCELERATING INDUSTRY 4.0

and,

Nearly 70% of major companies will increase cybersecurity spending post-coronavirus

Digital transformation – the act of adopting industry 4.0 technologies such as big data analytics, the internet of things (IoT), autonomous systems and machine learning – has been spoken about at great length over the past few years. But while many companies have begun to adopt these technologies and incorporate them into operational processes, many more have not got beyond buzzwords and trial projects.

“The current crisis will be one of the greatest drivers of digital transformation, as businesses seek visibility of data across systems and volatile supply chains,” says James H Chappell, global head of AI and advanced analytics at industrial software giant AVEVA.

Many of us would be very keenly aware of this and we know that one of challenges towards this is security of - data, devices, ports, etc.

Without IoT, analytics and cloud, businesses are running blind into this crisis.

...

The mass migration to a remote workforce has changed the security attack surface for every organization,

Employees working from home are using personal mobile devices connecting to home networks, which means traditional perimeter based security tools no longer provide visibility or control for security teams

[AltoLXI]

Some of the "economists" and "intellectuals" are proposing citizen's resource to be treated as national resource.

To raise resources for these initiatives, the action plan asked the government to do “whatever it takes”. “All the resources (cash, real estate, property, bonds, etc) with citizens or within the nation must be treated as national resources during this crisis,” the economists said.

Link1

Link2

Link3

[hserus]

Originally Posted by AltoLXI

Some of the "economists" and "intellectuals" are proposing citizen's resource to be treated as national resource.

Do you have a degree in economics?

[srishiva]

Originally Posted by AltoLXI

Some of the "economists" and "intellectuals" are proposing citizen's resource to be treated as national resource.

If I was getting pension I would have endorsed their view Are we in such hopeless state to nationalize citizen's hard earned money ? Its not just about being economists and activists, its what you believe is the solution. And this belief is influenced by ideologies and contrary to what generally should be tried.

[AZT]

The Job Market’s Long Road Back

Job losses were sudden and swift. At first, workers and employers thought they would be temporary. For many, that is starting to look like wishful thinking.
The vast majority of people laid off this spring assumed they’d be back at their jobs fairly soon. It is becoming more clear now that for many, that was wishful thinking.

...

Permanent layoffs are likely at more factories, as consumer spending declines. Airlines have warned employees on paid leave that they could be cut this fall as forecasts suggest full recovery of robust travel might take years. And in communities across the country, restaurants and other small businesses are closing up shop for good.

...

In 2007, the recession built gradually over months and years. Furloughs were a lot less common. The crisis caused by the pandemic is different. The equivalent number of jobs created in the last decade--about 20 million--were lost in a single month.

...

Restaurants’ prognosis is especially dire. As a rule, they have small margins and fail at rapid rates even in economic booms. Seating half as many diners as before—as required in some reopening scenarios—just isn’t a viable option for many. And even if all restrictions lift, how comfortable people will feel in a crowded restaurant is an open question.

Read More: https://www.livemint.com/industry/hu...214225921.html
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-job...ck-11590206400

[hserus]

Originally Posted by srishiva

If I was getting pension I would have endorsed their view Are we in such hopeless state to nationalize citizen's hard earned money ? Its not just about being economists and activists, its what you believe is the solution. And this belief is influenced by ideologies and contrary to what generally should be tried.

The economy is already in the doldrums and set to sink further. Add to it that we already have a huge deficit in the budget and this so called 20 lakh crore stimulus is largely creative accounting and giving people back things they are owed anyway such as held up tax refunds, and offering more debt to already debt ridden industries.

This sort of spirit last caught the country during the 1965 Indo Pak war, when Shastriji, regardless of party still one of India's most respected prime ministers, raised the cry of Jai Jawan Jai Kisan and called for Indians to step up and fund the war effort.

Without public spirited citizens raising money and the patriotism it engendered (much more genuine than shouting slogans on whatsapp etc because citizens backed their patriotism with their wallets and flocked to get recruited in the army) India would not have come through that war as well as we did.

[srishiva]

Originally Posted by hserus

....

This sort of spirit last caught the country during the 1965 Indo Pak war, when Shastriji, regardless of party still one of India's most respected prime ministers, raised the cry of Jai Jawan Jai Kisan and called for Indians to step up and fund the war effort.

Without public spirited citizens raising money and the patriotism it engendered (much more genuine than shouting slogans on whatsapp etc because citizens backed their patriotism with their wallets and flocked to get recruited in the army) India would not have come through that war as well as we did.

I do know that. But it was still voluntary. We were very poor nation receiving food grains as aid. We are not that. I have issues with these people who have no other solution but can come up with such extravagant solutions.

[hserus]

Originally Posted by srishiva

I do know that. But it was still voluntary. We were very poor nation receiving food grains as aid. We are not that. I have issues with these people who have no other solution but can come up with such extravagant solutions.

For those fixated on p 7.1 of the document that is getting interpreted as expropriation -

https://twitter.com/_YogendraYadav/s...515366912?s=19

Pt 7.1 has attracted undue attention & interpreted to mean a call for nationalisation/expropriation of private property This was far from our intention
Reformulated it as below
Hope the debate will focus on the plan outlined to address health, economic & humanitarian crisis

The reworded text is -

"The government must explore emergency ways of raising resources going beyond the usual set of taxes and levies to cope with the problem of funding large relief packages"

[am1m]

Went to get a clock repaired today. A couple of weeks ago, had gone to the same shop to get another clock fixed. That time, they were very particular about wiping down the clock with sanitizer before accepting it and before handing it back.

Today the sanitizer bottle wasn't even on the counter!

And many people are thinking of much more complex 'protocols' for daily life activities going forward expecting proper usage/adherence. Hmmm.

[Miyata]

Originally Posted by AltoLXI

Some of the "economists" and "intellectuals" are proposing citizen's resource to be treated as national resource.

I don't think there is a need to worry on actually "nationalization" of the resources held by the citizens. The idea itself is not novel, basic elements of Marxism is what appears to be in these "fancy new bottles".

While it is true that the govt needs some way to finance its way around. That has to come about through "whatever means necessary" such as -

1) Asking right questions on what happened to years of tax and revenue collection. Getting some transparent clarity on that.

2) Plugging all leaky holes in the govt coffers - various scams; other corruption related leaks; unnecessary purchases; if other government employees have had their pension plans redone, what is the hold up in redoing the pension plans for MPs/MLAs/etc.?

3) What do normal people/industries do - disinvestment and privatization: Why continue the burden of low RoI PSUs when many of them can be privatized for both better immediate revenues and continued source of better revenue + they will actually be run / managed better.

They waited too long with Air India and it's now out there for everyone to see - a classic exhibit of incompetence and revenue draining sink-hole.

I think some development along privatization was happening with Indian Railways - that needs to possibly be completed in one fell swoop.

4) Issuing of government bonds. etc.

One challenge we have with people sitting in ivory towers issuing guidelines and propounding theories is that they are insulated from their own theories and (often bad) ideas.

If someone propounds lockdown, they should be enforced to follow it like a normal everyday citizen with the tribulations that come with it.

If someone suggests nationalization of private properties, it should start on an experimental basis by nationalizing the properties of the people that have suggested it.

Unless we are made to endure the consequences of our own decision making, we will never be able to empathize with those that suffer because of our ill though out ideas. I guess only then will we have actually sound ideas coming out from "thinking heads" that will also be brave enough to have their own skin in the game!

That might just about be worthy of a moniker like "Mission Jai Hind"!

[skchettry]

Originally Posted by AltoLXI

Some of the "economists" and "intellectuals" are proposing citizen's resource to be treated as national resource.

Indeed that Point No. 7 in their proposal has shocked many. The proposers are amongst the so called great intellectuals of the country.

If I am not consulted before statues costing crores of rupees are constructed, if I am not asked whether I need bullet trains before such costly deals are signed, if I am not given any support whatsoever in my post retirement life despite being a sincere tax payer all through my life whereas even a single term MP/MLA gets pension all his life, and finally if I am not convinced that every paisa spent by the government goes to where it is shown to be going, I don't think anyone should eye what I have been saving all my life for my rainy days.

[AirbusCapt]

Unusual situations demand unusual solutions. Hence, something such as a demand generating stimulus needs to be considered. For example what about a small tax break for every holiday you take at a domestic destination? Or a covid tax rebate for each made in india car you buy? Say you spend 20 lakhs over the entire year purchasing made in india goods, services and you can claim say 20000 off your taxes?