[msdivy]

Originally Posted by RedTerrano

Now that the numbers are rising, Govt of MH is mulling yet another lockdown.
I simply don't get the logic. Lockdowns made sense when there was no vaccine. But now that the vaccines are available, why the lockdown?

Vaccine is not medicine isn't it? How will it cure the disease? BTW, what is the relation between lock-down & vaccine?

PS: Actually, with the announcement of vaccines, the situation is back to pre-covid times. Many have dropped the masks. Traffic congestion is back on roads; malls temples, hotels are full; few big movie releases have lined up. Only IT folks are working at home and kids are taking classes at home.

[jpcoolguy]

An article from Quartz on possible reasons for reduction of cases in India.

https://qz.com/india/1973946/has-ind...t-coronavirus/

In the early days of the pandemic in the country, for instance, the projected fatalities from the viral infection were believed to be 4 million. But as of Feb. 18, deaths from Covid-19 in India stand at 155,913, less than 10% of the estimate.

At this point, epidemiologists are fairly confident the data on infections, fatality, and testing is reliable, barring minor deviations from available statistics. “Although it is true that Covid-19 testing has slumped recently,” says Gautam Menon, professor at the departments of physics and biology at Ashoka University, other parameters may point to a fuller picture. “Test positivity rates, in most states apart from Kerala and Maharashtra, are low at the moment, below the 5% suggested by the WHO as an indication for how well the pandemic has been controlled. This suggests that the decrease in the numbers, both of cases and deaths, is likely a real effect,” he explains.

Other signs can be found in fewer people turning up at fever clinics and hospitals reporting lower occupancy rates, according to Swapneil Parikh, co-founder of Covid-19 response startup DIY.health and a practising internal medicine doctor.

Following are some of the reasons for reduction in cases, as per the article:

1. Lockdown
2. Masks
3. Possibility of pre-existing immunity to the virus
4. Impressive levels of Vitamin D in Indians
5. Demography - Majority of young population, the group with very low case fatality rate
6. Access (lack of) to healthcare, which results in low life expectancy that results in fewer cases of co-morbidities

The article also mentions that though there is a long way to go to achieve Herd Immunity with a national average of 20%, some of the big metros may be close to achieving Herd Immunity sooner with as much as 55-60% of population with anti-bodies.

[Zen2001]

Originally Posted by locusjag

Well that's easy for you to say. With no skin in the game, you are free to say whatever you want. It's not as if your political career or legacy hinges upon your decision to not impose lockdowns on the nation. Skin in the game makes all the difference my friend.

It's easy for you to say that the virus is overblown, but ask the families of those who're getting severely impacted by the damned virus. My daughter had a life-threatening impact due to MIS-C. Another member's 30 year old brother had MIS-A and he needed dialysis. 1 or 2% of the population is all that severely gets impacted by the virus - this I know too. But without the lockdowns, what if the 2% needed medical care all at once. Would people have died on unattended on hospital corridors, while their families wailed outside shut ICU doors? A version of this actually happened in Italy, where they had a very cavalier attitude toward the virus in early 2020. There just weren't enough doctors, beds, equipment or medicines.

I am sorry, but lockdowns gave my kid a chance at staving off the condition which she ultimately developed. The lockdowns gave enough time for the medical infrastructure to receive patients in tranches, instead of having them all at once (probably). I starkly remember my doctor saying that without lockdowns, everyone's getting it now; it was well under control until lockdowns were in place. The lockdowns were lifted for economic reasons and for the good of the majority of the population, but that's how it is. That's all I know and care about.

PS: You should ignore the sharp edge in my retort to you. I am well aware of it, but I couldn't help speaking my mind either. I bear no ill-will towards you.

Your concern is more at your personal level rather than that at a mass level. MIS-C has been reported in a very small subset of Covid infections. Uneventful recoveries are the majority norm, lower respiratory complications are a minority (less than 5%), deaths even more negligible (less than 1%) and KLI,, MIS-C even more rare. One can't expect hundreds of crores of an otherwise healthy population to be put under severe restrictions that ultimately have no bearing whatsoever in the occurrence of such rare exceptions in any disease for that matter. Lockdowns have no positive long term benefit in the course of this pandemic - you can read many epidemiologic reports (or a textbook of preventive & social medicine) prepared on the basis of our Indian population models which are also in use for other communicable diseases. I was working throughout in the same hospitals that I was pre lockdown, and I know very well how that time was spent in "ramping up" - in private hospitals, govt hospitals and medical colleges.

Originally Posted by praveen789

It may sound counter intuitive but getting the test done was not necessary considering you didnt have any major symptoms. Simple self isolation to avoid spreading (even if it was COVID) was better. This is what is happening in most cases - docs do not even bother to see how severe it is before pumping you with a dozen tablets at a time. This is totally not required as those will have side effects for sure whereas your body was ably fighting Covid without any external inputs.

I have witnessed some disgusting practices by doctors/hospitals where they force you to get admitted and put you on saline/drips and a million medicines though you have no/minimal symptoms (all because you had medical insurance and are juicy bait). I still stand by my earlier view that this has become a business model now and I myself would think a dozen times before getting tested for sneezing 2 times.

People flocking the doors of private hospitals more out of hypochondriac behaviour are responsible for this, in part. No hospital/doctor can force anyone to even take out patient treatment, let alone in patient care! Why not seek the opinion and treatment of doctors at a govt/municipal hospital instead? Perhaps you are not aware that even govt funded insurance schemes have made tons of money by demanding commissions from private hospitals who have treated patients under these schemes. At a point in June-July, even PCR testing was "incentivised" to boost the number of cases and 2 months later the same entities clamped down on PCR testing when they wanted to paint a picture of success in handling the situation.

Originally Posted by Thad E Ginathom

What vaccines? What availability? Can you simply walk into some clinic or centre and get vaccinated? It may be that you belong to some priority group and can, but that is a small percentage of people.

I belong to some priority group, being nearly seventy years of age, but it is not the top priority, and even though there is talk of over-fifties starting in march, it remains talk until there is a needle in my arm --- and I have absolutely no idea when that will be.

And even then, the body's reaction takes some time, not to mention the need of a second dose.

It's the numbers now that are important in these decisions, not the maybe availability of vaccine which will take time to protect people.

Coronavirus is not a short story. It's been a year now. Hopefully vaccination puts an end in site.

The govt strategy here is clearly flawed, just like the lockdown decision. Priorities are jumbled. Only select high risk population groups need to be protected (instead of a blanket lockdown) at the outset, and even now, notwithstanding the lack of efficacy of the available vaccine, the same needs to be done. Vaccination of high risk health workers (instead of all) should have run parallel to vaccination of high risk individuals in the general population. Not that this WILL MAKE ANY DIFFERENCE, but it would have allayed the fear in the minds of the general population of being left out (as you are).
Rest assured, the vaccine (as of now) is not going to create any objectively positive difference (how do you reduce a 0.2% mortality of a respiratory viral illness unless you can absolutely eradicate it like small pox) other than creating a psychological feel good situation and someone making billions in the bargain.

[Thad E Ginathom]

Originally Posted by Zen2001

... ... ... Rest assured, the vaccine (as of now) is not going to create any objectively positive difference (how do you reduce a 0.2% mortality of a respiratory viral illness unless you can absolutely eradicate it like small pox) other than creating a psychological feel good situation and someone making billions in the bargain.

Are you not, even as one of our medical men, making the mistake that we have seen so often in this thread and other discussions: that the outcome of covid is nothing/negligible or death. Black or white. Vaccination is because of the fear of death.

I have not had a flu vaccination for years (it used to be arranged at work) but I used to, and am putting it back on the agenda for the future. I am certainly not afraid of flu. I've had flu maybe 50-100 times (no idea really, but lots) in nearly seventy years. Feeling lousy for a few days is probably not very high on the possible-suffering-caused-by-disease spectrum... but I'd still rather not. I'd much more rather not covid.

I am not thinking "Oh god, covid: I'll die!" Although I am taking into account that statistics may suggest more than a fractional percentage risk at my age.

[Zen2001]

Originally Posted by Thad E Ginathom

Are you not, even as one of our medical men, making the mistake that we have seen so often in this thread and other discussions: that the outcome of covid is nothing/negligible or death. Black or white. Vaccination is because of the fear of death.

I have not had a flu vaccination for years (it used to be arranged at work) but I used to, and am putting it back on the agenda for the future. I am certainly not afraid of flu. I've had flu maybe 50-100 times (no idea really, but lots) in nearly seventy years. Feeling lousy for a few days is probably not very high on the possible-suffering-caused-by-disease spectrum... but I'd still rather not. I'd much more rather not covid.

I am not thinking "Oh god, covid: I'll die!" Although I am taking into account that statistics may suggest more than a fractional percentage risk at my age.

No, I'm not making a mistake. My statements reflect what epidemiological statistics (what the MOHFW does not release) show. Talk to a few epidemiologists to get the complete picture (of undetected, asymptomatic, negligible infections). What makes you paranoid is the one sided doomsday screaming of our medically (& in most other scientific areas) illiterate politicians through the loudspeakers of a TRP hungry, one up on each other news media channels.
Anyone is probably as likely to die of anything else - Infectious, lifestyle related illnesses, accidents, cancer - but the fear here is nowhere near the paranoia of Covid. However, just the presence or absence of fear of an illness does not make it any more or less likely to kill you, unless you are hell bent in going out of your way to ensure that you get the worst of it by your own doing.
Check the epidemiologic data of Western countries and you'll see that seasonal/non seasonal influenza (for which they already have annual vaccinations) also causes similar morbidity and mortality in the same pre disposed populations as Covid will.

[mvadg]

Originally Posted by Zen2001

No, I'm not making a mistake. My statements reflect what epidemiological statistics (what the MOHFW does not release) show. Talk to a few epidemiologists to get the complete picture...

I'm beginning to believe that this Covid19 is a virus, not too far out of the ordinary, but riding on top of it is a very manipulative agenda with drastic implications for human society as we know it. Of course, this is purely my opinion!

[atnyia]

My opinion on the Covid isn't mainly based on the lethality or the lack of it, but the 'pandemic' nature of a novel, airborne disease.
Let's be honest, after one year, we can atleast conclusively say that Covid is a mild pandemic. The CFR is way way less than truly scary pandemics like black death.
As, in computers, a virus may not virulent enough to bring down the OS, but a seemingly innocuous one can still cause DDoS and bring down the service, for a substantial time.
Covid clusters did cause DDoS on our healthcare, which is why we were trying to flatten the curve (to avoid everyone falling ill at the same time, until we figure out what to do).
If people let go of Covid appropriate behaviour, we might still again go back to same situation due to mutations (or not, that's beyond the point).
This is common sense behaviour in case of any novel, life threatening risk factor.
Comparing it to endemic flu infections isn't correct where there is no pandemic risk. Believing that it is some kind of global conspiracy means you should cut off from social media and get some peace of mind.

[Zen2001]

Originally Posted by atnyia

My opinion on the Covid isn't mainly based on the lethality or the lack of it, but the 'pandemic' nature of a novel, airborne disease.
Let's be honest, after one year, we can atleast conclusively say that Covid is a mild pandemic. The CFR is way way less than truly scary pandemics like black death.
As, in computers, a virus may not virulent enough to bring down the OS, but a seemingly innocuous one can still cause DDoS and bring down the service, for a substantial time.
Covid clusters did cause DDoS on our healthcare, which is why we were trying to flatten the curve (to avoid everyone falling ill at the same time, until we figure out what to do).
If people let go of Covid appropriate behaviour, we might still again go back to same situation due to mutations (or not, that's beyond the point).
This is common sense behaviour in case of any novel, life threatening risk factor.
Comparing it to endemic flu infections isn't correct where there is no pandemic risk. Believing that it is some kind of global conspiracy means you should cut off from social media and get some peace of mind.

A pandemic is defined by clear epidemiologic criteria - there is nothing mild, moderate, severe, scary or any other adjective attached to it - it is just a pandemic. Besides, Corona viruses are not new respiratory viral pathogens. It is only SARS-CoV-2 that has been "conferred" this cult status due to its high transmission/infection rate. SARS epidemics of greater mortality but lesser geographic transmission have been witnessed in the last 20 years.
The way we react psychologically and behaviourally determines how we allow it to affect us. Common sense rather than draconian measures are more useful in curbing such pandemics (not even vaccines). Our healthcare system suffered what you refer to as DDOS, simply because most of those who utilised hospital beds (in private, and initially even govt hospitals) had mild disease and could well have saved those resources for those who were more severe. This group comprised nearly 80% of patients in private hospitals. Once admitted, a bed with all resources was blocked for 2 weeks. I have personally received requests from Covid positive mild/asymptomatic cases to use my hospital connections to get them entry into hospitals - overtly stating that "money is no issue". The govt and media fuelled hypochondria was responsible for this - who wants a bed now?
Endemic flu does have a risk of blowing into an epidemic from time to time, hence the comparison. That's why susceptible populations are vaccinated yearly. The same goes for Covid too - as with other Corona viruses, this one will (has already) become endemic. Just like other influenza viruses, there will be new mutations and new strains popping up now and then, you have to live with it.
The "conspiracy" is not about the virus - is about how governments all over the world have latched onto this issue as their "go to reason" for enforcing any and all measures they can to control their people, which they otherwise could not have done in a democracy. All under the garb of public health and reduction of mortality. While turning a blind eye to other diseases/conditions that regularly kill much more and will continue to do so.

[rdst_1]

Originally Posted by Zen2001

The "conspiracy" is not about the virus - is about how governments all over the world have latched onto this issue as their "go to reason" for enforcing any and all measures they can to control their people, which they otherwise could not have done in a democracy. All under the garb of public health and reduction of mortality. While turning a blind eye to other diseases/conditions that regularly kill much more and will continue to do so.

Don't you think this happened much later? What about the deaths that happened in Italy and NY and other places abroad. Did the govts of those countries had the same agenda? Maybe the mortality has reduced now or Indians do have a better immunity, but no one can deny that this was no simple flu. I know many more people die of other diseases like TB and we don't seem to be as worried about them, but maybe we should be more careful in case of communicable diseases (I lost my grandfather to TB that he got from our neighbour because despite being afflicted from TB, he couldn't care enough about not spreading it to others). It is not unnatural the way most people/govts/humanity reacted when they faced a new disease like this.

[atnyia]

Originally Posted by Zen2001

A pandemic is defined by clear epidemiologic criteria - there is nothing mild, moderate, severe, scary or any other adjective attached to it - it is just a pandemic. Besides, Corona viruses are not new respiratory viral pathogens. It is only SARS-CoV-2 that has been "conferred" this cult status due to its high transmission/infection rate. SARS epidemics of greater mortality but lesser geographic transmission have been witnessed in the last 20 years.
The way we react psychologically and behaviourally determines how we allow it to affect us. Common sense rather than draconian measures are more useful in curbing such pandemics (not even vaccines). Our healthcare system suffered what you refer to as DDOS, simply because most of those who utilised hospital bed..
The "conspiracy"... All under the garb of public health and reduction of mortality. While turning a blind eye to other diseases/conditions that regularly kill much more and will continue to do so.

You are arguing that pandemic is just a pandemic, not mild, severe etc. Pandemic is a world wide health emergency and it does have several severity measures (R0, CFR etc) That's why we have graded responses to these events. If there is nothing severe or mild then what the hell CFR is for?

Then, you yourself explain why Covid became a pandemic (high transmission, novelty and worryingly high CFR) while SARS (or even MERS or Ebola) didn't (focusing on just severity and novelty of the disease) and call it 'conferred'.

According to such 'logic', Polio is a bigger fraud with 70% cases of infection not resulting in a disease and additional 25% getting only a mild disease. Only 5% get headaches, and body aches. Only 0.5% develops physical disability. Jonas Salk was some kind of deep state actor with such connections that countries are still running polio vaccine inoculation programmes.

There are plenty of people who do call polio a fraud and polio vaccinations a global conspiracy. So, you should judge yourself where you want to stand.

[saisree]

While we are discussing on this Virus AIMS Director says Herd Immunity is a joke in India.

Herd immunity is "very difficult" to achieve and one should not think of it in "practical terms" in India, especially in the times of "variant strains" of COVID-19 and "waning immunity", claimed AIIMS director Randeep Guleria on Sunday.

"Herd immunity is something that is going to be very, very difficult to achieve and it is something one should not really think of in practical terms... because the variant strains and varying immunity with times can lead to a chance where people may have reinfection or get infection again," the All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS) director said.

More here.

[vivek95]

Originally Posted by rdst_1

Don't you think this happened much later? What about the deaths that happened in Italy and NY and other places abroad. Did the govts of those countries had the same agenda? Maybe the mortality has reduced now or Indians do have a better immunity, but no one can deny that this was no simple flu. .

I have been working in Covid ICU since 11 months now and I can say it with utmost confidence that the mortality rate in India right from day 1 had been very low ( less than 3%) and at the same time we never bothered to keep a tab on how many non-covid deaths occurred due to our sheer apathy towards other routine emergencies that were not attended on time due to stupid covid protocols/ lack of beds that were occupied by young stable covid positive individuals. Fellow bhpian and Doctor @Zen2001 has been painting the correct picture of Covid-19 here in this thread and I totally agree with him. Covid-19 has been the most overhyped disease in the history of our country The demographics and clinical profile of patients in Italy/west was different, that's a different matter altogether.

There is simply a second wave of foolishness in Mumbai/Maharashtra rather than a second wave of Covid-19 itself. But glad that the Covid-19 task force of Maharashtra ( comprising all eminent critical care/pulmonology doctors ) are not suggesting any draconian lockdown measures to the Govt.

[sandeepmohan]

Originally Posted by Thad E Ginathom

Some countries have done better. If I remember correctly, New Zealand effectively eliminated covid, only to find it coming back at them.

We did. We also had a small out break last week with two cases that somehow ended up in the community. Puzzles me no end how it reached the community considering mandatory hotel isolation for two weeks. Rapid contact tracing saved the day for us. New Zealand uses a App called NZ Covid Tracer which works on QR code scanning. They traced everyone who were in contact with the infected individual, which also ended up with a couple of school going (terrifying) kids and immediately put them in quarantine.

Auckland remains at level 2. The rest of New Zealand, Level 1 or life back to normal. Keep scanning and wearing a mask is required on public transport. Not taking any chances even if there is no covid.

Covid has terrified everyone in NZ for sure. Colleague falls ill last month (mild viral), when there isn't a single covid case in the country (No case in Wellington in over 6 months), runs to the clinic to get a test.

[rdst_1]

Originally Posted by vivek95

I have been working in Covid ICU since 11 months now and I can say it with utmost confidence that the mortality rate in India right from day 1 had been very low ( less than 3%) and at the same time we never bothered to keep a tab on how many non-covid deaths occurred due to our sheer apathy towards other routine emergencies that were not attended on time due to stupid covid protocols/ lack of beds that were occupied by young stable covid positive individuals. Fellow bhpian and Doctor @Zen2001 has been painting the correct picture of Covid-19 here in this thread and I totally agree with him. Covid-19 has been the most overhyped disease in the history of our country The demographics and clinical profile of patients in Italy/west was different, that's a different matter altogether.

There is simply a second wave of foolishness in Mumbai/Maharashtra rather than a second wave of Covid-19 itself. But glad that the Covid-19 task force of Maharashtra ( comprising all eminent critical care/pulmonology doctors ) are not suggesting any draconian lockdown measures to the Govt.

Please see again what I have written. I said, that India did have a lower mortality than other places, but when the decision for lockdown was taken, we were basing our decisions on what we were seeing happening around the world, so it was not unnatural to be scared of the disease.
As for people with mild cases hogging beds unnecessarily, you can't ignore the fact that many people can't isolate themselves at their homes properly. I live with my mother who is a diabetic and above 60. So if I were to contract CoVID, I would make sure I am at a hospital because there is no one else to take care of me if things were to go south and I don't want to expose my Mom. You must remember that back in March-May, we were getting reports from all over the world that this disease has the tendency to suddenly complicate after 7-10 days and that also played a major part in people wanting to be in a hospital rather than quarantine at home, even in mild cases.
I don't believe that this was overhyped enough in India. Do you see people taking enough precautions, wearing masks and following social distancing?
They still haven't learned anything. I have taken care of 2 TB patients and in both cases, I was fine because we were following proper protocols at home. Don't you think it would have been better for India, if people learnt to take communicable diseases more seriously. But unfortunately, even that isn't going to happen. Another thing that didn't happen, which I was hoping for, was that some healthcare infrastructure would get built which would help out in the future, but I know it was too much to expect for India.

Yes, people die of innumerable reasons everyday and over time we humans get used to it. But I will repeat, it was not unnatural the way humanity reacted to a new disease which was extremely infective and was killing so many people.

[Zen2001]

Originally Posted by rdst_1

Don't you think this happened much later? What about the deaths that happened in Italy and NY and other places abroad. Did the govts of those countries had the same agenda? Maybe the mortality has reduced now or Indians do have a better immunity, but no one can deny that this was no simple flu. I know many more people die of other diseases like TB and we don't seem to be as worried about them, but maybe we should be more careful in case of communicable diseases (I lost my grandfather to TB that he got from our neighbour because despite being afflicted from TB, he couldn't care enough about not spreading it to others). It is not unnatural the way most people/govts/humanity reacted when they faced a new disease like this.

No, this draconian reaction was akin to that of a headless chicken initially, but later on cunningly used to suppress people's activities as and when the govt thought it suitable. Yes, the people are also to blame. Did the same govt ever curb election rallies during this same period, especially at the peak in August-September? How many "super spreading" events happened during these rallies attended by lakhs - unmasked, socially un-distanced and generally with total lack of what the govt itself calls "Covid appropriate behaviour"? Remember how quick they were to put all the blame on the Tablighi gathering? I don't support any kind of public gatherings for any purpose in such a situation, but isn't that double standards? Imposing weekend curfews and night curfews - does the virus take a holiday during these times? Secondly, look into the demographics of the population that died in Italy, NY, Spain - I have doctor colleagues (& published sources) from where I get my information, not from media or politicians. Have you any first hand amounts from physicians, intensivists, surgeons, nurses or verified statistics of co morbidities of the nursing home population there? Thirdly, mortality appeared to have reduced largely because the denominator of detected cases kept rising due to liberal testing. And yes, a flu is STILL a flu - by your definition, even other influenzas cause pneumonia and death. But maybe YOU haven't heard this from the media and politicians you subscribe to.
Sorry about your grandfather, but if your neighbor, provided he started taking treatment must have ceased to be an "open case" (that is, will not transmit through air borne route) as early as 48 hours after the first dose of treatment. Pharmacology & epidemiology say this - dont come after me.
.

Originally Posted by atnyia

You are arguing that pandemic is just a pandemic, not mild, severe etc. Pandemic is a world wide health emergency and it does have several severity measures (R0, CFR etc) That's why we have graded responses to these events. If there is nothing severe or mild then what the hell CFR is for?

Then, you yourself explain why Covid became a pandemic (high transmission, novelty and worryingly high CFR) while SARS (or even MERS or Ebola) didn't (focusing on just severity and novelty of the disease) and call it 'conferred'.

According to such 'logic', Polio is a bigger fraud with 70% cases of infection not resulting in a disease and additional 25% getting only a mild disease. Only 5% get headaches, and body aches. Only 0.5% develops physical disability. Jonas Salk was some kind of deep state actor with such connections that countries are still running polio vaccine inoculation programmes.

There are plenty of people who do call polio a fraud and polio vaccinations a global conspiracy. So, you should judge yourself where you want to stand.

Yes, there's no mild or severe "pandemic". Ro, CFR are indicators alikes to any infective disease - theses nothing special about applying the same indicators to Covid 19. Please read epidemiology before arguing on this. Ro only indicates infectivity and thereby potential to spread - it doesn't mean a pandemic. India (& Africa) have the highest number of ACTIVE (transmissible) TB cases - which are also transmitted by droplets - that doesn't make it a pandemic. Infact, not even epidemic. Covid only becomes a pandemic owing to a widespread worldwide geographical presence, NOTHING MORE.
You, like most educated people have been misled by this so called CFR - while what you ACTUALLY should be reading, is the IFR. Again, refer to epidemiologic texts for the difference. FYI, the IFR (as deducted from markers of infectivity like Ro, incidence of new infections, prevalence in the general population marked by sero surveys) across diverse geographical & socio-demographic parts of India DOES NOT EXCEED 0.2%.
Do you know that SARS, MERS and Ebola are much more lethal? Count for blessings is you get Covid instead, I'll say!
I don't understand what your logic about the polio comparison is - the modes of transmission, complications, the long term morbidities (of a child who has to live live long with its permanent after effects), vaccine prevention strategy - are nowhere comparable to an influenza, not even Covid. Simply put, polio is completely vaccine preventable, influenza is not (nowhere to that extent). But you can continue your rant on anti vaxxers, fraud vaccinations - just don't make me a part of it.

Originally Posted by saisree

While we are discussing on this Virus AIMS Director says Herd Immunity is a joke in India.

More here.

He is proverbially caught between the devil and the deep sea. While he can't openly criticize government logic - and what gives any non medical politico/bureaucrat the qualification to have any say in this matter? - absurd as it may be, he has carefully spoken "in fine print" about the pitfalls of our Covid strategy all year long - right from the initial severely restricted testing, extended lockdowns, to half baked, hastily researched magic treatments ( Plasma, Remdesivir), even the futility of a fast tracked (inadequately trialled) vaccine and at the end of it all - the simple fact that India's population demographics, standards of living (conferring natural immunity) will make a joke out of this all.

Originally Posted by vivek95

I have been working in Covid ICU since 11 months now and I can say it with utmost confidence that the mortality rate in India right from day 1 had been very low ( less than 3%) and at the same time we never bothered to keep a tab on how many non-covid deaths occurred due to our sheer apathy towards other routine emergencies that were not attended on time due to stupid covid protocols/ lack of beds that were occupied by young stable covid positive individuals. Fellow bhpian and Doctor @Zen2001 has been painting the correct picture of Covid-19 here in this thread and I totally agree with him. Covid-19 has been the most overhyped disease in the history of our country The demographics and clinical profile of patients in Italy/west was different, that's a different matter altogether.

There is simply a second wave of foolishness in Mumbai/Maharashtra rather than a second wave of Covid-19 itself. But glad that the Covid-19 task force of Maharashtra ( comprising all eminent critical care/pulmonology doctors ) are not suggesting any draconian lockdown measures to the Govt.

Thank you Dr. Vivek. As an intensivist, you have no doubt been at the worst and scariest end of this scenario (especially during the early days and peak), and there's nothing more heartening to see that despite all the "hype" , "agenda", "manipulation of healthcare services", "multi crore contracts of jumbo Covid centres" , "back and forth, helter-skelter policies", you have not let your logical mind and common sense get overwhelmed or drift away (as it has happened in most cases, mostly educated folks!). What India probably needs more than a vaccine today, is a complete 4G ban (if they did that to J&K, why not?) - and Covid will lose 99% of its teeth! The only wave that is more dangerous (as you rightly said) is the wave of misinformation, fear, foolishness and draconism. Amravati has already declared a lockdown, and I'm quite sure the super specialist covid- expert politicians of Maharashtra will silence the voices of independent doctors/epidemiologists/pulmonologists and enforce the same eventually on the rest of the state. Because as of now, Covid spreads only between 11pm to 7am
There are going to be highs and lows of transmission which will translate into rise/fall in cases, hospitalisations, even deaths - with regular mutations (even some vaccine induced) that any influenza virus will undergo to adapt - unfortunately this is being used as the "go to" tool to control people. Simply pathetic. Stay calm, stay safe.