[greatgyan]

Yellow alert declared in Delhi as test positivity rate has crossed 0.5%. Is it really worth imposing restrictions at just 0.5% positivity rate? I mean if only 50 out of 10,000 tests come out as positive, restrictions will be imposed. Not too sure of the logic behind this.

Just saw an English premier league match on boxing day and the stands were full of crowds with hardly anyone even wearing masks, let alone social distancing. This even after UK is reporting record cases over the last few days. I'm not saying UK is right in it's approach but imposing restrictions at just 0.5% positivity rate is a bit too much in my opinion.

[Thad E Ginathom]

Originally Posted by greatgyan

Just saw an English premier league match on boxing day and the stands were full of crowds with hardly anyone even wearing masks ...

You do have to take into account the very high double-vaxed percentage they have achieved. But no, it isn't that simple either, because yes, vaxxed folk are catching omicron.

I guess you are seeing crowd stupidity there.

[mvadg]

What we've all been discussing above - human behavior!

[vivek95]

Originally Posted by vivek95

So, there has been a spike in Mumbai over last 5 days. But positivity rate still remains less than 2%. I am not worried about another possible third wave at all. But I am seriously worried about unreasonable hospital admissions for mild patients that has already begun in Mumbai Repeat the same mistake again and again and then we will soon cry about shortage of beds for critical patients. Things are still under control, hope we rationalise our approach.

--Dr. Vivek

Before I write this post, request you all to not panic and relax whilst not letting the guard down. The surge in Mumbai is enormous. Cases are doubling in less than 24 hours. Two days back the number of new cases were 1300 odd, next day 2500 odd, yesterday 3600 odd. Case positivity rate has shot up to 7.9%. However so far so good, the cases have been mild. Most of them I am seeing are presenting with runny nose or just some mild fever or mild cough etc. Data from South Africa, EU has also been consistently suggesting that the cases are mild. So let's not panic. Flu illnesses are known to be like this, just that Omicron or any other variants or Covid have been fast in spreading. Expert virologists opine that this evolution of Sars-Cov2 virus, mean to say, Omicron variant being fast spreading yet manifesting as a mild disease is infact a good sign and that's how all viral pandemics become endemic in near future. Let's keep fingers crossed.

--Dr.Vivek

[lapis_lazuli]

Since the last post by Dr.Vivek, a lot has happened. Positivity rates have increased, knee jerk reactions by the states, are in place and I also see a new theory floating around. I had read of this, on twitter, this post by Dr.Afshine Emrani. I am quoting him ditto :

"Omicron is literally the vaccine vaccine companies could not make.
It is attenuated.
No hospitalizations.
No critical patients.
No oxygenation.
Everyone will be exposed and will get it.
Within 8 weeks the world will be vaccinated.
Why the panic???
It could've been a lot worse."

Now, how true is this? Interested readers may search for him on Twitter and he does have some unique thought processes. Request docs here, to comment.

[IamNikhil]

The cases in Mumbai are surely witnessing a surge, with 8000 odd cases for 2 straight days. Also got to know that Goa has the highest positivity rate in the country at the moment, with 26 out of every 100 people testing positive for Covid.

[CEF_Beasts]

Originally Posted by IamNikhil

The cases in Mumbai are surely witnessing a surge, with 8000 odd cases for 2 straight days. Also got to know that Goa has the highest positivity rate in the country at the moment, with 26 out of every 100 people testing positive for Covid.

Has crossed the 10k figure according to data released an hour back, in just 2 days my housing society has reported 10 cases. It's spreading fast, let's hope vaccines do their job and keep hospitalisations low.

[paragsachania]

Given the way numbers are climbing (US hit 10 lakh mark yesterday), expect exponential shoot-up with numbers in India too.

Our apartment reported 2 cases yesterday - Father and daughter who is less than 12 years old and are home isolating with just running nose.

Another apartment (2 km away) reported 4 positive cases, all kids below 15 years.

It is due to this reason, we parents decided to not send our daughter to school and attend online classes from yesterday.

All said and done, be ready to not get amused or astonished by the rise in numbers in coming days albeit the symptoms should remain mild and home isolation and treatment should help most of them recover.

I would like to stay positive on this and also hope this becomes an endemic (as I have been reading everywhere) and that we don't get to witness all that we did during the Delta wave that I continue to believe was the worst phase (and over).

[condor]

Was in rural North KA last week. No one wearing masks. Folks tell me that if anyone is seen wearing a mask, then he is possibly infected !

Having said this, I saw the stats released by state govt for may be 30th dec: 81% new cases in Bangalore.

[antz.bin]

Is there a reliable way to track daily and historical cases in all districts?

Asking since covid19india.org shut down in October.

[warrioraks]

The way it’s spreading this time, we should expect nearly everyone to get infected within next few weeks. Key thing to watch out is hospital bed occupancy. Case count has no meaning if majority of the folks are asymptotic. Hoping it stays that way.

[Poitive]

Originally Posted by warrioraks

Key thing to watch out is hospital bed occupancy. Case count has no meaning if majority of the folks are asymptotic.

Much would depend on the policy adopted for hospital admissions. Getting that right is tricky and important.

Make it difficult for a person to get admitted, and some deserving would suffer; make it easy and risk flooding hospitals to capacity, and consequent panicb which also would leave out some deserving cases.

[IamNikhil]

Originally Posted by CEF_Beasts

Has crossed the 10k figure according to data released an hour back, in just 2 days my housing society has reported 10 cases. It's spreading fast, let's hope vaccines do their job and keep hospitalisations low.

Vaccines are the only hope. Lot of places in Mumbai hit really bad. My society was a containment zone thrice in the last wave due to multiple cases. We're yet to see any cases this time; hoping it stays that way. That said, my fiancée has been staying in IIT Powai campus for a few months due to her PhD lab work and her hostel has been sealed due to multiple cases being detected. She had shifted to campus since traveling from Mahim-Powai everyday was becoming a hassle. Sad part is that she can't even come back to her own house now. Fingers crossed situation improves.

Originally Posted by paragsachania

It is due to this reason, we parents decided to not send our daughter to school and attend online classes from yesterday.

My sister has refused to send my niece and nephew to their schools here in Mumbai ever since schools reopened last month. Since a lot kf parents joined in, the school had to continue with online classes parallely.

Originally Posted by condor

Was in rural North KA last week. No one wearing masks. Folks tell me that if anyone is seen wearing a mask, then he is possibly infected !

The situation is the same in many interior parts of Maharashtra as well. Was in Kolhapur and Sawantwadi over the last week and got really weird glares from people for wearing double masks. Marketplaces are especially notorious. The general sentiment as you mentioned is that masks are now being treated as taboo suddenly.

Originally Posted by warrioraks

The way it’s spreading this time, we should expect nearly everyone to get infected within next few weeks. Key thing to watch out is hospital bed occupancy. Case count has no meaning if majority of the folks are asymptotic.

Well, I stay right opposite one of the major hospitals of Mumbai and have seen a crazy number of ambulances rolling in over the past 10 days, through all hours of the day and night with their sirens blaring. Roughly around 15-20 ambulances. The last time we experienced this visual was during the peak of the last wave. This definitely has to be Covid, since there's a faraway possibility of so many people being rushed to hospitals in this fashion for other reasons. But yes, from what I'm understanding from friends and family who have been unfortunately infected with Covid this time, the symptoms are mostly next to nothing and home quarantine for 7 days is proving to be a good fix. No medicinal intervention required except the home remedies we usually practice for flu.

[airbus]

Originally Posted by warrioraks

The way it’s spreading this time, we should expect nearly everyone to get infected within next few weeks. Key thing to watch out is hospital bed occupancy.

Another key issue may be infection among healthcare workers. As isolation is required for infected persons, whether we will have enough people to run hospitals. That may be one of the reasons why healthcare workers will get booster dose. We have already seen some impact on airline industry and flight cancellation due to staff shortage.

[IamNikhil]

Well, it seems the cases are spreading to shanties and slum areas in Mumbai because the servants/staff are carrying the infection from high-rise apartments. During the last wave, many apartment complexes had barred entry to house-help to avoid the possibility of them being Covid carriers.