[NPV]

I read about "breakthrough" Covid cases in the newspaper today - people who've been partially (1 dose) or fully (2 doses) vaccinated being reinfected with Covid.
Apparently Kerala has 46% of such cases. Is there something more than meets the eye here ?
Incorrect/inaccurate data ? Don't want to speculate with possibly much more bizarre reasons!

[Thad E Ginathom]

Originally Posted by NPV

I read about "breakthrough" Covid cases in the newspaper today - people who've been partially (1 dose) or fully (2 doses) vaccinated being reinfected with Covid.

When you say "re-infected," do you mean they had the disease as well as having one or two doses?

And is "breakthrough" different to just catching it after being vaccinated? There seem to be a number of those people.

I'm having doubts that I even understand the language of covid now!

[mn2363]

Originally Posted by NPV

I read about "breakthrough" Covid cases...
Apparently Kerala has 46% of such cases. Is there something more than meets the eye here?...

Yep that's an uncharacteristically high percentage. Unless raw data and/or peer review is available, there isn't much value to these statistics.

Originally Posted by Thad E Ginathom

When you say "re-infected," do you mean they had the disease as well as having one or two doses?

And is "breakthrough" different to just catching it after being vaccinated?

Technically reinfected should mean having caught the critter more than once. Similarly breakthrough is used for cases where the individual gets infected after completing the full vaccination protocol (i.e. currently 2 shots in case of COVID-19).

The Ganga Ram hospital vaccine effectiveness study (during the Delta surge in Delhi).

In the linked example: Total Number of Vaccinated - Breakthroughs = Vaccine Effectiveness. Effectiveness is measured separately for different outcomes. Outcomes being symptomatic infection/ moderate-severe disease/ hospitalisation/ supplemental oxygen/ ICU admission/ deaths.

Media coverage of the effectiveness percentage is mostly cherry picked/ clickbait highs or lows without mentioning the outcomes.

[Latheesh]

There are around 15 cases in my neighborhood (Kerala) and most of these (except couple of children) are already vaccinated people (some both the doses).

[NPV]

Originally Posted by Latheesh

There are around 15 cases in my neighborhood (Kerala) and most of these (except couple of children) are already vaccinated people (some both the doses).

This is what I was saying about media highlighting it - why is it prevalent in kerala ? Or has it just been noticed in kerala though it may exist in other places
as well ?

Originally Posted by Thad E Ginathom

When you say "re-infected," do you mean they had the disease as well as having one or two doses?

And is "breakthrough" different to just catching it after being vaccinated? There seem to be a number of those people.

I'm having doubts that I even understand the language of covid now!

I'm with you, can't understand the language at all.
I think it just means the latter - caught the disease after being vaccinated (either after first or second dose).

[Chetan_Rao]

Originally Posted by Latheesh

... already vaccinated people (some both the doses).

Quoting to make a generic point.

'Vaccinated' has become another semantic anomaly to muddy waters with.

One's NOT vaccinated until one's had all required doses of whatever they're taking, and should be reported/referred to accordingly.

[Thad E Ginathom]

Originally Posted by mn2363

Technically reinfected should mean having caught the critter more than once. Similarly breakthrough is used for cases where the individual gets infected after completing the full vaccination protocol (i.e. currently 2 shots in case of COVID-19).

Thanks for that. Anecdotally, there do seem to be plenty of these breakthroughs (breaksthrough?). Here's one...

Friend's inlaws, one single dose, one double dose, both caught it. Double-doser had a very mild illness; single doser required some hospital treatment but was ok. Which is sort-of encouraging. According to current vaccine-protection expectations.

Originally Posted by Chetan_Rao

One's NOT vaccinated until one's had all required doses of whatever they're taking, and should be reported/referred to accordingly.

Picking hairs, perhaps...

One is not immunised until the course is complete, but one is vaccinated every time one gets a shot of the vaccine.

[deathwalkr]

Meanwhile our state almost touches 18% TPR. Looks like we might have another lockdown come September :(

[PearlJam]

Originally Posted by deathwalkr

Meanwhile our state almost touches 18% TPR.

This is something that surprises me. Why is Kerala doing so badly compared to other states? I've read a lot of reasons, like:

1. No urban-rural divide - homogeneous towns one after the other, so people mix freely without any divide
2. More number of older people
3. Higher levels of comorbidities
4. More honest reporting (though I don't believe one bit that they're any more honest/dishonest than other states)
5. Poor diets, lots of red meat

Kerala seems to always be under some kind perpetual restriction or the other, for so many months now. And they can afford to do that, given that there are hardly any industries and manufacturing jobs. The seropositivity is lower than other states too. Probably they've been a bit too careful and strict, such that a smaller percentage of people are infected/recovered? Probably it's time to be a bit more lenient now, allowing the population to acquire some immunity naturally?

[deathwalkr]

We really can't afford such lockdowns, in the past few months many traders have had to resort to taking their own lives over lack of revenues.

Regarding the reasons, other than the diet part i have heard similar reasons. I would imagine we consumer more fish and chicken compared to beef/mutton.

The staggered lockdown restrictions based on TPR which was done in June/July really didn't help much. The full lockdown in May helped to bring down the TPR from almost 30% to 15%.

Oh well, mask on and live on...sigh.

[vik99]

Originally Posted by PearlJam

Probably it's time to be a bit more lenient now, allowing the population to acquire some immunity naturally?

That is not really a good option. News reports today-21.08.2021 indicate a shortage of ICU beds in 3 out of 14 districts. The going is only going to get tougher from here on.

The state had a weekend lockdown in place for a very long time. The police who were tasked with enforcement of lockdown rules have collected over 35 Crores in fine between January and June this year from violators. Everyday anywhere between 15,000-20,000 people are fined.

Low seropositivity, high population density, the crippling effect lockdowns have had on businesses could all be at play here. Incidence of cases among the vaccinated are very worrying indeed.

If you look at the spikes in Test Positivity Ratio, these coincide with relaxations in restrictions. Restrictions were eased around Eid, this was also the period when traders threatened to disregard restrictions and open business if these restrictions were not eased. There were further relaxations around Onam. Last Sunday (15.08.2021) was the first Sunday after ages when there wasn't any lockdown. Recently, malls have opened too. If past experience is anything to go by, TPR is likely to go up from ~15%. Of course there is also the matter of whether TPR is an effective measure of the crisis as some tend to say that only the symptomatic are being tested!

[Gansan]

Originally Posted by Latheesh

There are around 15 cases in my neighborhood (Kerala) and most of these (except couple of children) are already vaccinated people (some both the doses).

How severe is their disease?

[catkins]

Originally Posted by PearlJam

Why is Kerala doing so badly compared to other states? I've read a lot of reasons, like:

1. No urban-rural divide - homogeneous towns one after the other, so people mix freely without any divide
2. More number of older people
3. Higher levels of comorbidities
4. More honest reporting (though I don't believe one bit that they're any more honest/dishonest than other states)
5. Poor diets, lots of red meat

Any possibility of
6. Fake vaccine?

[splitsecond]

Originally Posted by PearlJam

This is something that surprises me. Why is Kerala doing so badly compared to other states? I've read a lot of reasons, like:

1. No urban-rural divide - homogeneous towns one after the other, so people mix freely without any divide
2. More number of older people
3. Higher levels of comorbidities
4. More honest reporting (though I don't believe one bit that they're any more honest/dishonest than other states)
5. Poor diets, lots of red meat

Nothing suprising here

4th point, reported cases are one in 30, for some other states its one in 90

Serosurveillance shows kerala still have large percentage of uninfected people. Other states have almost achieved herd immunity.

Keralas epidemic curve is almost flat, compared to other states which have peaks. So the show will continue for many months to come.

[sierrabravo98]

Originally Posted by splitsecond

Nothing suprising here

4th point, reported cases are one in 30, for some other states its one in 90

Could you please provide a reference/corroboration for the above claim? Has the figure been arrived at in a peer reviewed study or is it based on anecdotal evidence?