[Zen2001]

Originally Posted by Kln

Never look for population adjusted rates for things like death. Let me repeat that - NEVER look for population adjusted death rates, especially in India, where all statistics are famously fudged. It helps absolutely noone to dilute the reality. Do you think hospitals will magically be all right and have beds if you show them per capita rates? It is the absolute numbers that count, because your suffering isn't going to be divided between your fellow citizens. It is you, and only you. The only reason to give per capita statistics is to create a false sense of complacency and 'sab changa si' or 'all is well'.

I guess, based on what you say, doctors should throw away their knowledge of the subject of epidemiology, biostatistics and all such measurable criteria like incidence, prevalence rates, hazard ratios, morbidity and morality rates, especially when age adjusted or population adjusted, just so that it becomes justified for others to rant about absolute numbers, without a relevant denominator which apparently divides one person's suffering amongst many, thereby making it look insignificant and generate complacency!
If it was really that simple, every MBBS student so far has wasted 3 years studying preventive & community medicine the "wrong way".
I really have nothing more to say to armchair experts.

[msdivy]

Originally Posted by Zen2001

Not just daily wage earners, even middle class - professionals, businesses and even specialist doctors especially in surgical branches. No beds = no admissions. Oxygen issues = no general anesthesia.

It's like a wave, those in the front are affected first. Eventually, the wave will pull down all and everybody will be affected. I highlighted daily wage earners since they might have little or no savings. Others might have some savings for the rainy day.

Originally Posted by paragsachania

If you read what I have mentioned, I am clearly referring to catching the virus and not anything about recovery at all.

I meant that anybody can catch the virus, irrespective of their fitness.

I was only referring to the fact that unlike wave 1, wave 2 is also affecting the younger, fitter and healthier population.

That appears like a myth. There is no difference in proportion between wave 1 & wave 2 as per https://www.thehindubusinessline.com...le34359051.ece

Meanwhile, No sign of infection after test concert in Spain, researchers say

Around 5,000 music fans took part in the experiment after testing negative for Covid-19.

Revellers wore masks but did not have to socially distance.

Of the six people who tested positive, researchers concluded that four of them were infected elsewhere, not at the event itself.

[AirbusCapt]

Let this be a lesson for us all, not to trust bombastic know it all politicians who paint rosy pictures and build castles of lies inorder to gain votes. In the next election we must behave like aware citizens and hold all candidates and parties accountable and against their poll promises and manifesto.
Covid has exposed us all, we are nothing but an underdeveloped, highly corrupt, pompous nation who regularly fails its citizens on all fronts. Its time to hold these politicians accountable, we can't allow them to walk away with mass murder on their hands.

[kinetic]

Originally Posted by Sankar

The infographic shows the hugeness of India compared to comedians home country and the country he is living in - i.e., ~ 23 times larger than SA and 4 times larger than USA. In a country divided by language and politics and ethnicity do you think its easy to manage something on a scale as large as this? Which other country has done anything better in covid? Do not point out to some tiny mono language mono ethnic country with a disciplined population, show me a country like India with at least half the population and as diverse as ours. A lot of people are also pretty good at good at threshing. Threshing means separating wheat from the chaff.

So the point of the response was to prove that we've done what was needed with no missteps? That idea has been disproven already.

The responsibility of a nation's leadership when crafting a response to a pandemic is to take into account factors like population and its density, diversity, supply and logistics of essential commodities, public's propensity to follow rules etc. The strategy has to account for these constrains, and a handful of countries have done a good job of it, and others like US, UK, Brazil, India did not, or still have not, or have lost their way. There are also plenty of mono-ethnic, mono-lingual etc. nations that have screwed this up, so those characteristics are no guarantee of success either.
The constraints you pointed out for India should've been factored into a coordinated and sustained pandemic response, but we demonstrably took our foot off the gas (its an auto forum, so had to sneak that metaphor in). The US is already demonstrating the impact of good leadership, so it's possible. We just have to hold our elected officials to a higher standard. With that, I'm done with this topic.
FYI, I'm still trying to figure out the threshing metaphor

[paragsachania]

Originally Posted by msdivy

I meant that anybody can catch the virus, irrespective of their fitness.

I meant the same too.

That appears like a myth. There is no difference in proportion between wave 1 & wave 2 as per https://www.thehindubusinessline.com...le34359051.ece

I have watched the entire show with doctors from all over the country on a news channel discussing this with statistics where they confirmed no difference between wave 1 and wave 2 in terms of those getting affected from various age brackets. It was aired on News18 2 weeks back.

However, for a while I will totally ignore the statistics and focus on the sample of cases from within my own apartment, my colleagues and friends circle. I see more and more young and adults showing symptoms and testing positive and this includes kids as well. This was never the case during the first wave and no matter what the statistics say, the reality is right here.

There are also so many of my colleagues between 40-50s testing positive and recovering. During wave 1, there was not even a single instance of anyone catching the infection.

So for me, the difference is seen within this sample and that is enough. While there can be an argument that we are seeing more cases among the young and adults now, if one goes by the ratio, it will more likely be the same as wave 1. However, the scale is massive and hence you see a lot cases right around you.

In the end, I would like to have a balanced view on this rather than remain complacent that there is no need to panic as this is same was wave 1 albeit the higher numbers all around. But that is also one of the reasons we are seeing too many thronging the hospitals in need of medication, ICUs and Oxygen. Many had to lose lives too, few from my own circle. The mantra is to remain extremely cautious and follow the mask, social distancing and sanitization rules and above all, stay indoors as much as possible.

[ecenandu]

In Kerala, the situation is very concerning with a test positivity rate of 25.34. With this trend, the hospitals could get overwhelmed very soon. With the election results slated to be announced over the weekend, I really hope the political parties and the supporters are wise enough not to overcrowd and make the situation even worse.

[MCR]

Originally Posted by v1p3r

MCR - my wishes are with you and your family.

Thanks for the Wishes.

Did you understand the meaning of a "Question mark" after the sentence?

Please substantiate your claim of Vaccine Production in India being sub par. Can you please share the link to the news item?

[for_cars1]

Originally Posted by AirbusCapt

Let this be a lesson for us all, not to trust bombastic know it all politicians who paint rosy pictures and build castles of lies inorder to gain votes. In the next election we must behave like aware citizens and hold all candidates and parties accountable and against their poll promises and manifesto.
Covid has exposed us all, we are nothing but an underdeveloped, highly corrupt, pompous nation who regularly fails its citizens on all fronts. Its time to hold these politicians accountable, we can't allow them to walk away with mass murder on their hands.

A few months back, a news article showed people dying by the thousands in NewYork and in general all over the USA.

If the most powerful country in the world with all its enormous infrastructure was struggling to overcome the severe blow of the pandemic and facing enormous deaths, one can imagine the plight of the other not so prosperous nations.

There is no use of getting into any political blame game, the virus doesn't care and will attack everyone if people are not careful.
Last year, the lockdowns were enforced ruthlessly at enormous hardships to the economy and it resulted in a much smaller first wave.

Then all the people opened up, started mingling without any care in the world, no masks, no social distancing, absolutely no precautions and what we are seeing now in the second wave is the result of the carelessness. The message has been passed to the people through so many channels (irritating at times), even then people don't care thinking "Corona is someone else's problem not mine" This is the same mentality we have for almost everything. Everything is someone else's problem.

So far about 14 crore Indians have been vaccinated. We are not Israel with just 1 crore population where vaccination can be completed in a jiffy. Vaccinating 130+ crore people of this country is no ordinary feat and it will take time.
Until about 80% people are vaccinated, there will be a 3rd wave, 4th wave and multiple such waves in the coming months and possibly years.

Only the people can prevent the spread by behaving responsibly (masks, distancing and hand sanitization) Otherwise, we are just going to continue suffer during each wave and no political parties or anyone else will be able to help.

[am1m]

Friend was in panic yesterday worried about "second wave", "airborne", "feeling desperate".

Same friend this morning sends a video of two people she's called over to her place to...groom her dog!

Right from the start I've seen this- we're too scared to step outside, we'll shut public parks and swimming pools, and we'll sanitize everything we touch...but then go and do stuff we really want to do in far more riskier conditions, especially indoors!

And then say "despite our best precautions, this virus is really different!, etc."

[poloman]

Originally Posted by AirbusCapt

Let this be a lesson for us all, not to trust bombastic know it all politicians who paint rosy pictures and build castles of lies inorder to gain votes. In the next election we must behave like aware citizens and hold all candidates and parties accountable and against their poll promises and manifesto.
Covid has exposed us all, we are nothing but an underdeveloped, highly corrupt, pompous nation who regularly fails its citizens on all fronts. Its time to hold these politicians accountable, we can't allow them to walk away with mass murder on their hands.

People of the country cannot be advised whom to elect and whom not to. When a developed country like US could not handle Covid, with 2 times the fatalities of India. Is that also mass murder or only in India mass murder happens always.

[paragsachania]

Originally Posted by ecenandu

In Kerala, the situation is very concerning with a test positivity rate of 25.34. With this trend, the hospitals could get overwhelmed very soon. With the election results slated to be announced over the weekend, I really hope the political parties and the supporters are wise enough not to overcrowd and make the situation even worse.

What you must also look at, apart from test positivity rate is the percentage of that population that tested positive requiring hospitalization. This number is perhaps less than 10%.

The biggest problem we are seeing right now is that there is no proper guideline on home isolation and recovery and the confusion on the veracity of RT-PCR tests that is compelling many to rush to hospitals or testing centers for a CT scan.

At this hour, I seriously wish that our Media along with the help of medical experts telecast and reiterate what is really important instead of relentlessly showing gory videos and presenting news from burial grounds which we now know has gone to extremes.

Media also must start to share experiences of those who have successfully recovered and the best practices that they followed while in isolation and during recovery. This will certainly create an atmosphere of positivity and hope which is a lot more important than anything else.

Regarding this whole politicization, we can type all day, run signature campaigns, Hastags and even fight and argue endlessly on social media and forums but that is not going to make any difference. This is the time to help each others in whatever way we can and even spread awareness.

I am saying as someone who was totally helpless when I noticed a dear colleague seeking help in our Whatsapp group for ICU bed first, plasma later, only to post a message on Tuesday that his mother was no more . None of us could really help him and I felt so sorry for his loss.

[Sankar]

Vaccine hoarding?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tropM4cajFw

Western validation of Covaxin?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZeOoP2jNPu4

What "The Hill" says

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kZ5DavuOkcM

Originally Posted by v1p3r

Did either of you read the article or just go by the clickbait headline? He has made a very valid point about safety of vaccines and processes during manufacturing. This isn't some local chemist or compounder we're talking about. We've already seen instances of live viruses in the vaccine, and factories not being up to standards in India.

Which lapse in safety instance are you referring, was it a covid vaccine? Lapse in vaccine safety is not a 3rd word thing and has happened in USA; not just in India or other 3rd world or even poorer countries.

[v1p3r]

Originally Posted by MCR

Thanks for the Wishes.

Did you understand the meaning of a "Question mark" after the sentence?

Please substantiate your claim of Vaccine Production in India being sub par. Can you please share the link to the news item?

Please google what has happened with the Brazilian health administrator and both Ella's company and the Russian vaccine.

Originally Posted by Sankar

Which lapse in safety instance are you referring, was it a covid vaccine? Lapse in vaccine safety is not a 3rd word thing and has happened in USA; not just in India or other 3rd world or even poorer countries.

Yes, I am aware that this has happened previously, including with the Cutter incident 65 years ago in the US. I said that this was why it does not make sense to just let anyone produce this vaccine. Might I suggest that you stop the whataboutery and the 'so what if India is bad, so is the rest of the world' trope? We live in India, not anywhere else, and this is where we're burning our dead who are running out of oxygen and healthcare facilities. Your steady defence of the government and its incompetence does nothing for me or the thousands of others who've lost loved ones and are working day and night to ensure that it doesn't repeat itself again and again. If you are making yourself useful in ways other than posting conspiracy videos that no one has time to watch, I applaud you. If you need help on that, https://go.sheroes.com/public/go/cov...e-registration is a great place to start.

I am not interested in academic debates with anyone anymore. Will watch this thread for useful information, and pray that people work some empathy into their minds.

Originally Posted by mooza

Just a suggestion to our dear Mods:

Please create a separate thread "Coronavirus Medical advice", as a lot of critically important posts with advice from Doctors are getting drowned out in the general discussions in this thread, which I assume was created for general discussions and debates.

Many thanks to all the Doctors in the forum for continuously providing crucial advice in these tough times

+1000

[mooza]

Just a suggestion to our dear Mods:

Please create a separate thread "Coronavirus Medical advice", as a lot of critically important posts with advice from Doctors are getting drowned out in the general discussions in this thread, which I assume was created for general discussions and debates.

Many thanks to all the Doctors in the forum for continuously providing crucial advice in these tough times

[ecenandu]

Originally Posted by paragsachania

What you must also look at, apart from test positivity rate is the percentage of that population that tested positive requiring hospitalization. This number is perhaps less than 10%.

True, below are the actual data from Kerala as of 29th April 2021.

Source
Active cases: 2,66,646
Hospitalized : 22,726(8.52% of active cases)
ICU: 1528 (0.57% of active cases)
Ventilator support : 535 (0.2% of active cases)

The case positivity rate is a good indicator of the spread of the virus, if it increases so does all the above parameters proportionately.

The crux is, we need to follow the data and make sure that we don't overwhelm the healthcare facilities. Looks like Kerala is doing well in that regard.