[meerkat]

Originally Posted by civic-sense

...
Now am thinking about avoiding the second dose altogether.

That may not be such a bad idea after all, -- at least for Covishield! :-). See, a study submitted to Lancet inform us that the efficacy of the vaccine increases with increasing interval between the two doses: 54.9% for a 4-week interval, 59.9% for 6 weeks, 63.7% for 9 weeks, and 82.4% for 12 weeks. Given the state of the art, it stands to reason that if the interval is increased to infinity (i.e. no second dose at all), the efficacy should increase to 100%! The way things stand now, I'd much rather go with this logic than brave jostling with hundreds for my second dose! :-)
.

[vsrivatsa]

Originally Posted by vivek95

The inevitable illogical measure again ! How will the lockdown help break the chain is beyond me.

The decision for lockdown was highly recommended by Dr. Giridhar Babu (MBBS, PH.D (EPIDEMIOLOGY), MPH, PGMLE) who is an Advisor to the Govt.

Here are some projections made by Experts from Indian Institute of Science: Link

As per the projection, even with a 15-day total lockdown (not the liberal “curfew”), the number of active Covid cases in Karnataka will go up from the current 2.9 lakh to 11.6 lakh (including 6.2 lakh from Bengaluru alone) by May 31, in the state , if the state goes for unlock mode.

Without a lockdown, it would be double the number, well over 22 lakh (including 10.69 lakh from Bengaluru) The chart showed that a 30-day lockdown will help contain the active case number at 5.29 lakh by May 31.

A PHD in Epidemiology and the cream of the scientific community (IISc) seem to be of the opinion that the lockdown is the way to go and the Govt has made the decision based on their inputs.

So if this is not correct, from where else do we get a better input to handle this pandemic?

[Old_Salt]

What happens if someone contacts the Virus between the vaccine doses?
Do we still get 2nd dose as per schedule or is there some other guideline, like showing a Covid Negative Report to get the second shot?

[akhil994]

Originally Posted by civic-sense

Somehow, I am losing faith in this vaccine thing. A few months ago vaccines were supposed to make us immune, promote herd immunity and perhaps stop this pandemic in time. But now with the vaccinated getting infected - even dying, people catching the disease a second time - sometimes in a couple of months, I am slowly losing hope.

It only works when sufficient percentage of population is vaccinated. Case in point being the UK and Israel, where the positivity rate is down to 0.2% due to mass vaccination.

In fact some UK scientists have unofficially declared that the UK is not in a pandemic anymore.

Due to our population, we are too far off reaching such a point unfortunately.

[rm_arjuna]

one of my team member , recovered fully and reported to work after negative report , however within a week of joining he has tested positive again . Just not able to understand the current situation.

[xway]

Something is terribly fishy -

Since Dec 13th 2020 to Mar 14 2021 - corona cases in India were below 30k/day and even reducing to as low as 15k in Jan-Feb 2021

So what happened post Mar 20 2021 that all of a sudden cases started multiplying each day and reached a whopping 3.5+lacs/day ?

Why are cases numbers not in sync with neighbouring countries like Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, where things are very different ?

Why are cases in India concentrated in Delhi NCR UP Belt, Maharashtra and now Bengaluru mostly ?

There is something more to it which is not revealed or not known.

Seems the administrators, doctors, public, politicians everyone in the world has varied and conflicting statements.

Overall reading and processing information from everywhere I feel there is no sure shot solution for Corona, we dont know the exact symptons, we dont know the exact virus and mutants, we dont know how its transmitting so fast now, we dont know which medicines or vaccines work and to what extent.

So be extra cautious and stay away to keep yourself and everyone safe.

[PetrolheadRup]

Originally Posted by Old_Salt

What happens if someone contacts the Virus between the vaccine doses?
Do we still get 2nd dose as per schedule or is there some other guideline, like showing a Covid Negative Report to get the second shot?

Dr. Saravanan answered a similar query yesterday:

Originally Posted by drrajasaravanan

Somebody asked regarding getting a covid infection between 1st and 2nd dose when to take the 2nd dose. It depends, both covishield and covaxin can be taken after the patient recovers out of the illness preferably 30 to 60 days post recovery. If there is any change to this will post again.

[pavanmadhini]

Originally Posted by vivek95

God is in total control end of the day, I firmly believe.

Originally Posted by locusjag

My prayers are with you.

Originally Posted by warrioraks

God help this country please.

With all due respect, perhaps if we'd believed in knowledge and action rather than our gods and prayers, we'd be in much better shape now.

[msdivy]

Originally Posted by vsrivatsa

As per the projection, even with a 15-day total lockdown (not the liberal “curfew”), the number of active Covid cases in Karnataka will go up from the current 2.9 lakh to 11.6 lakh (including 6.2 lakh from Bengaluru alone) by May 31, in the state , if the state goes for unlock mode.

Without a lockdown, it would be double the number, well over 22 lakh (including 10.69 lakh from Bengaluru) The chart showed that a 30-day lockdown will help contain the active case number at 5.29 lakh by May 31.

Is the projection for Karnataka or India? Now we have the numbers & lockdown, let us see the projection of 11.6L holds good anytime in the future.

Surprised to see the entire calculation made on 'Active Cases'. Is that the right measure?

Originally Posted by srvm

Why can't those in power set an example to common man?

During the 1st wave BSY was using the mask as hankey. This time at least he is wearing the mask correctly.
BTW, the entire COVID episode is caught in red tape. People waiting for the BU number, SRF number. Instead of triaging happening at hospital emergency or OPD, it is happening at Govt office.

Originally Posted by poloman

If you can feed the populace during lockdown, the only down effect will be a fall in GDP, but that you can manage later.

No Government in the world has succeeded in feeding its entire population. Might be during a natural disaster, which is region-specific, relief might have provided for few days. Nothing beyond that. With lock-down, daily wage earners have to fend for themselves.

[drrajasaravanan]

Originally Posted by rm_arjuna

one of my team member , recovered fully and reported to work after negative report , however within a week of joining he has tested positive again . Just not able to understand the current situation.

Hi,
No need to do any swabs or test after recovery. Your nasal tissues will carry virus remnants which will give positive results up to 3 months. Tell your colleague not to worry he should be fine.

There are few posts of people skipping the second dose and hoping they will be 100% immune to the virus. That is not true. Delaying the 2nd dose for 60 to 90 days gives better efficacy and if not done the efficacy goes down. On a average vaccination tries to avoid severe form of COVID pneumonia and its pretty successful at that. You may still get infected and may have mild to moderate illness but should not progress to severe form of illness. Even after vaccination better to follow COVID appropriate behaviour outside your home till we have turned the curve.

[turbo]

There you go. The cat's out of the bag.
The virus was lab-made.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zgTeNFIY-b0

[nareshov]

@msdivy this data scientist highly recommends looking at absolute numbers of active cases: https://www.thehindu.com/sci-tech/sc...le34402300.ece

(Yes, it’s “bad news” and “negative” - but wishing it away will not change the ground reality. As someone pointed out, if it causes someone to take extra precautions - that in itself is a win)

@xway someone already posted data from Financial Times a few pages back showing how abnormal deaths don’t tally up with the case count. Simply put, as another poster put it: the data is garbage. Garbage in, garbage out. We’re blind by a factor of at least 20x in some cases.

@vsrivatsa this is the trouble isn’t it. There are actual experts who’ve spent years in training and education to authoritatively make a statement and somehow we can’t trust it. They’re not some random commoners one chats with at a bus stop over opinions.

Positivity and avoiding bad news is okay and all (not really; at least not the way UP CM wants to take away your properties if one spreads “rumours”) but not at the cost of (data) integrity. Since when is knowing the ground reality however bad or negative a “bad” thing. Only if you know the ground reality can one take appropriate action isn’t it?

Personally, I’ve got batchmates from Uni days across various government and private sectors who’re acting on the ground reality because they don’t have a problem believing their loved ones back in rural or urban areas are affected.

Some are working on campaigns to raise money https://milaap.org/fundraisers/support-indian-hospitals and taking active initiatives instead of spreading “positivity” or whatever that even means in this grim situation.

Some are foreseeing the need for local oxygen plants (decentralisation) and are working on evaluating their options to set it up as they believe it’s the right thing to do and planning far ahead looking at future variants that may require an updated vaccine (like the yearly flu shots).

All of this from a group that is quite partisan- they’ve kept their political stances aside as it’s not even the right time to be insensitive and are focusing on the pressing need of the moment.

“Positivity”, prayers, keeping “rumours (read: ground reality)” suppressed are all unproductive and especially fact suppression will bite us in the rear if left unchecked. We should’nt be afraid or ashamed of reality. We should use it to our advantage. Or we’ll all be clapping like those poor cabinet members North Korea at everything their supreme leader does or says having given up all freedoms.

[rm_arjuna]

Originally Posted by drrajasaravanan

Hi,
No need to do any swabs or test after recovery. Your nasal tissues will carry virus remnants which will give positive results up to 3 months. Tell your colleague not to worry he should be fine.

Thanks Doc , that's reassuring however whats worrying is the number of people getting to pneumonia stage while recovering in this second phase. I have seen atleast 6 cases in my close circle .

[vivek95]

Originally Posted by vsrivatsa

The decision for lockdown was highly recommended by Dr. Giridhar Babu (MBBS, PH.D (EPIDEMIOLOGY), MPH, PGMLE) who is an Advisor to the Govt.

Here are some projections made by Experts from Indian Institute of Science: Link



A PHD in Epidemiology and the cream of the scientific community (IISc) seem to be of the opinion that the lockdown is the way to go and the Govt has made the decision based on their inputs.

So if this is not correct, from where else do we get a better input to handle this pandemic?

With all due respects to Dr. Giridhar and you Sir, none of the projections so far have come true for any region or country. This is purely based on factual observations over the last one year. Best example is that of Sweden. Imperial College of London ( the model based on which all countries devised their policies and strategies including India) had predicted about 40000 deaths in Sweden by mid May 2020 for its then ongoing no-lockdown policy. In reality Sweden experienced 2492 fatalities at that point of time, far far behind the predicted numbers. You can google and get information on this. These projections in my opinion are exaggerated at best and might only help in disciplining the public. I don't refute his analysis but am not convinced as well.

Originally Posted by pavanmadhini

With all due respect, perhaps if we'd believed in knowledge and action rather than our gods and prayers, we'd be in much better shape now.

Sorry for off topic

Sir, I am a Doctor myself and very much believe in knowledge and action. Have earned my MBBS and PG degrees through merit in entrance exams and not any donation ( General category student). That's totally God's grace and parents blessings. I have a strong spiritual inclination as much as I have an affinity towards scientific knowledge. God can never be taken out of any equation, that's my personal faith. Prayers do work

[nareshov]

Sweden is an exception - like India - but in the other direction. They’re quite private as a people and their country’s landmass is quite sparsely populated.