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Originally Posted by DigitalOne A good explainer on Cycle Threshold (CT) values of RT-PCR and how they are used to classify +ve or -ve cases. I think Zen2001 had a post on this few days back.
Maharashtra asked for a reduction the CT guideline value to 24 from 35. ICMR rejected the proposal.
But what struck me immediately is that the number of "positive" cases can be brought up or down just at the stroke of ICMR bureaucrat's pen. . If ICMR changes the guideline tomorrow to 25, the number of "positive" cases would drop rapidly. |
The cycle threshold value of 35 was initially set (last year) by CDC and WHO and the same followed by most countries. However, this was a time when very little was known and it was safer to err on the side of having false positives rather than false negatives. As time had passed and we know more about the significance of ct. values, it doesn't make sense to keep it at such a high level. In fact we have a study from Pune that establishes no correlation between ct value and clinical severity. The ICMR too has refrained from formulating treatment guidelines according to ct value. The bottomline is that every patient needs treatment according to his symptoms, and not the ct value. The CDC mentions that at higher ct values (near 35), we would be only detecting fragmented viral RNA which is basically non infectious. So there is certainly a valid case of reduction of ct values to a reasonable number, say 30 - it would basically label people with very low viral loads and those who have recovered but continue shedding dead virus particles as negative. Biostatistics indicates that this could be a huge reduction (even upto 50% of current caseloads) , but apparently the government's don't want to step off the panic button.
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Originally Posted by Su-47 It talks about airborne transmission, which I believe is something that is known to the medical professionals for a while, but the bureaucrats asked them to shut-up citing "lack of evidence". In some way equating "absence of evidence" to "evidence of absence".. |
Aren't all respiratory infections "airborne"? Even Freddie Flintoff's mum would have known this!
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It's just that the term "droplets" has misled the people - all respiratory pathogens leaving an infected person's tract (while coughing, sneezing, shouting) do so in the form of "droplets" of humidified exhaled air. The size of these droplets determine "how far" they can travel (& thereby transmit) - this is subject to a lot of environmental factors. Once fallen onto any inanimate surface, viruses, especially (bacteria are hardier) will not survive for even a few minutes, but still, if someone were to touch a recently contaminated surface and then touch his own nose/eyes/mouth with the same hands, there is a risk of transmission. Airborne doesn't mean that transmission take place over great distances - hence the greater risk of indoor rather that outdoor transmission.
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Originally Posted by naru80 Officially, India has around 14 million cases. But if you go by the serological surveys, the actual number of Covid cases in India could be around 400 million, which is more than the entire population of the United States.
This is based on work by the scientific community and is not a personal opinion.. |
Agree with this and would have been agreeing even 6 months ago on these numbers. Infact, taking the same logic of serosurveys further, today's figures on India's ACTUAL infections could even be twice these numbers. Especially since serosurveys in almost all metro and tier1 & 2 cities/towns and large pockets of slums revealed antibody positivity to the rate of 55% in that area population! - that too way back in August 2020.
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Originally Posted by akhil994;5 045251 Getting a vaccine will not ensure one becomes immune to COVID. One can still be infected even after getting the vaccine. |
Not to forget - the vaccinated person can still transmit the infection to others - who may or may not be vaccinated/immune. So, other than a claim of personal level of protection (in terms of milder disease), the vaccine isn't going to do anything to stop the transmission, or break the chain or whatever our politicians want to call it.
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Originally Posted by DonHyd Friends, what do you think will be the logical end to this pandemic? In order words, when do you expect to see the world moving past covid? |
Only when people can act more responsibly with common sense. Stop attending election rallies and kumbh melas. Stop listening to politicians and religious gurus. It's that simple - what do you think will save us in the end - politicians, religious beliefs or scientific discipline? It's upto the people to choose. Once they make the right choice (out of these 3), the remaining 2 will cease to have any say in this matter. Or is upto people to think rationally and refuse to be swayed by anything else (including media sensationalism).
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Originally Posted by Tucker48 Covid is here to stay forever and this has been stated by experts from the beginning. Vaccines have a limited role for the whole population in general but for a particular set of people, they play a critical role and no one really knows who all are included in that particular set due to lack of seriousness of govts worldwide to invest in people.
This isn't the first pandemic and it won't be the last. The faster they(viruses) spread, the less lethal they are for the host. This is a part of the game called EVOLUTION. |
Well said! As I mentioned above, vaccines will have more of an individual protection role (esp amongst the vulnerable subset) rather than even ticking the spread! The silver lining about mutations is that the virus is desperately trying to survive and propagate - and it can't do that by killing it's hosts - that's why the increased infectivity and reduced mortality.
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Originally Posted by carboy Just like people in cold countries take a flu vaccine every year, COVID vaccine also could be taken every year & then people can live normal lives. Close 50% of US population takes a flu vaccine every year - likewise many other countries.
Another thing is that the SARS-CoV-2 virus mutates with half the speed of the flu virus. |
That would be the plan, yes. The vaccine industry just increased its customer base by billions in the last year! Covid is their golden goose. Even when it's documented how slowly SARS-COV-2 mutates as compared to the Influenza virus (which also regularly kills thousands every season), I suspect there won't be a vaccine that will come out with even 5 year protection, lest people should forget what covid was!
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Originally Posted by Tucker48 No wonder Pfizer refused to hold trials in India as that might have brought down their efficacy rates |
They played it smart for sure. Serum Institute of India purely gambled on the "lesser" AstraZeneca vaccine based on sheer volumes, (more than a billion in India itself, and much more in exports) and logistics of easier storage and transportation (2 to 6°C). Infact, Pfizer is now seeking indemnity in India before bringing it's vaccine - probably saving it's reputation from our cheap politics. "We will not be responsible for your stupid behaviour if our vaccine does not show the same results in India as it has shown elsewhere in the world"
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