[kiku007]

Originally Posted by poloman

The covid cases have touched 2L yesterday. This may be only the tip of iceberg as many news reports have been pointing out. We can easily reach 5L cases per day by next week.

We need to show some empathy towards lakhs of patients who are struggling to gasp air and their relatives running around for a vial or Remdesivir or Tocilizumab. Posts trivialising the pandemic should be removed with out any considerations. Else the forum will be doing a big disservice to its readers. This thread itself has more than million hits much more than a tweet or a Facebook post.

I can understand why you would say that. I don't think anyone would say that the rising numbers isn't a cause for concern and we should look the other way. Something has changed in the past couple of weeks and measures need to be taken to handle the situation. However, I think some people are asking for not to panic and make it even worse. Let's not take it as trivializing COVID-19.

I said the below in March 2020 and I still believe that's the best I could do for my parents who are in India. They did everything that the government/local authorities asked for them to do. They obeyed lockdown measures, followed social distancing and safety protocols like the use of masks and have had their first dose of the vaccine. They are looking forward to the second dose of the vaccination later this month. I've requested them to reduce movement outside of the house for the next couple of weeks. But for some reason the courts have not stopped in-person hearings as yet and my dad has to visit the courts that are even outside of the city limits. It'll be good if the Governments provide a consistent messaging.

So yes, I'm concerned but I'm not asking my parents to panic and freak out. It'll be detrimental to their daily life. I mean, as a common man with access to $, what else can we do man?

I hope that the vaccination delivers the results and look forward with hope.

Originally Posted by kiku007

GOLD.

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/jurgen...after-21628126

"People with no knowledge like me talking about it...people with knowledge should be the ones telling people what to do.

“Not football managers. I don’t understand politics, the coronavirus. Why me? I wear a baseball cap.

“I’m concerned like everyone else. I live on this planet and I want it to be safe and healthy, I wish everybody the best, absolutely. But my opinion on coronavirus is not important."

It'll be good if people keep their opinions and beliefs to themselves. Keep calm and follow the directions from the local health department and from the official WHO website.

Personally I'm banning, unfriending, blocking anyone who spreads stupid rumours in the internet.

[Zen2001]

Originally Posted by splitsecond

This low mortality of covid doesnt make it less dangerous, this has been pointed out in this thread itself several times.

Pointed out by how many doctors who are treating this? You can fan the fire of the ongoing hysteria by refusing to be reasonable, rational and seeing the data for what it is - and instead going by reports of burnt crematoriums and what not. Any electrical equipment carries this risk - it just had to happen when it did! To your logic of mortality vs infectiousness, it's better to have a infectious pathogen that most often leads to recovery than one which is fatal most of the time!
Please substantiate your concerns with valid evidence, not TV news!

Originally Posted by Thad E Ginathom

If I die I'm not going to bothered by the this virus, Although there are probably nicer ways of getting there.
I am bothered by the much larger chance of being extremely ill. And I bet that the proportion of people made extremely ill by Covid is vastly more than than the unknown deaths. How much track do you keep of people when they leave the hospital? Do you know what happens to them? Again I don't mean you,
Here, nothing will be known. After discharge, the patient may live or die.

Why spend 95% of your time worrying about a 5% possibility then? I think it's all in the mindset. Assuming a higher number of serious patients (more than even deaths, as you say) is purely conjecture. I have not come across any literature on this till date - please share if you have any. We see post viral sequelae as those mentioned post covid recovery in A LOT of viral infections - dengue, chickengunya, encephalitis etc - lasting for months. The only reason people talk about post covid sequelae is because the sequelae of other viral illnesses have never recieved so much attention so far.
Besides, patients follow up with their doctors (in public and private hospitals), especially when they feel something amiss, so it's not like we don't know what happens once they're discharged.

Originally Posted by tsk1979

More difficult to hide when all this data is analyzed somewhere in the future. Right now even though hundreds of cremations are following covid protocol, only a tiny fraction are actually reported as covid.
Due to possible reporting issue, world over a metric called excess deaths is used. But for India try finding official numbers of 2019 vs 2020 deaths. Just try.
And then let me know how difficult it is to find what.

Do you have the data of how many covid deaths not actually reported as covid? Do you think hospitals are that stupid to fudge numbers in hundreds everyday? A death certificate is a medico-legal document and we can be questioned in court regarding the same even years after the incident! The trail of evidence from the PCR report, medical notes, clinical judgements, medications, supporting lab reports, ICU charts, invasive procedures like ventilation, resuscitation notes, death summary and then finally the death certificate - is far too much to be hidden.
About the concerns on "excess deaths", be sure to add (to the covid deaths) all the deaths due to non covid infections that could not be tracked and treated in time, deaths due to NCDs like diabetes, hypertension, Ischaemic heart disease, COPD, Chronic renal failure and CANCER - missed screenings, late diagnosis, changes in treatment protocol mandated by covid - and you'll be looking at many more excess deaths in the NON COVID list - which is going to play out not just this year or the next, but we'll over the next 5 years. You many refer to several published articles raising this concern from many countries in the West. Once our NCD registries are updated, we will also have our own data. But right now, we are like Ostriches, yet to take our buried heads out of the ground to see the real picture.

[tsk1979]

Originally Posted by Zen2001

A death certificate is a medico-legal document and we can be questioned in court regarding the same even years after the incident! The trail of evidence from the PCR report, medical notes, clinical judgements, medications, supporting lab reports, ICU charts, invasive procedures like ventilation, resuscitation notes, death summary and then finally the death certificate - is far too much to be hidden.
About the concerns on "excess deaths", be sure to add (to the covid deaths) all the deaths due to non covid infections that could not be tracked and treated in time, deaths due to NCDs like diabetes, hypertension, Ischaemic heart disease, COPD, Chronic renal failure and CANCER - missed screenings, late diagnosis, changes in treatment protocol mandated by covid - and you'll be looking at many more excess deaths in the NON COVID list - which is going to play out not just this year or the next, but we'll over the next 5 years. You many refer to several published articles raising this concern from many countries in the West. Once our NCD registries are updated, we will also have our own data. But right now, we are like Ostriches, yet to take our buried heads out of the ground to see the real picture.

Who said fudge anything. If a person dies of a heart attack the death certificate says heart attack. Now that heart attack could have been a result of covid (and in many cases it is)

As for number of reported covid and fudging, I just went by what the news reports are saying. For example comment by CJ of Gujrat high court
https://www.livelaw.in/news-updates/...h-court-172636

And reported deaths are very small , why are crematoriums flooded with bodies
https://www.indiatoday.in/cities/bho...720-2021-04-14

I agree with you on Ostrich part. If official numbers do not show it, it does not exist, that's the mentality

[BenjiRoss]

To all those who say that this is just a cold and cough, I would like to say that something on the scale of a pandemic, even if mild in 80+% of tha cases, stresses the skimpy healthcare system in our country.
When was the last time you had ICUs in many parts of the world overflowing with patients due to one illness?
I am a doctor. The disease is not a threat if it dwindles down to epidemic or sporadic proportions.
January and February were a joy to work in - few cases of covid and we were catching up on other healthcare issues that were neglected.
This second wave is mostly due to inability to contain the spread of the virus as a result of individual choices made. All we need to do is go about our usual things with precautions and avoid overcrowding. Maybe make a few sacrifices to let the pandemic simmer out. We knew the second wave would come but ignored the warnings.
Yes, media would like to paint only the dramatic and sensational aspects. It serves no purpose. If they diverted the same amount of money and energy into convincing people to be rational and prudent in their interactions, maybe citizens will be motivated to get through this phase with positivity and actually help flatten the curve.

But the ground situation is grim. Right now people are doing everything they can to add to the cases and get so upset when there are no beds to admit their dear ones.
We medical personnel (docs, nurses, security, technicians, etc) would give anything to reduce the caseload to January or February levels. But then you probably don't care as it's our problem and not yours.

Yes, you most likely will get a mild illness. But in a pandemic scale illness you've been part of the transmission chain due to which someone else dies or becomes very sick. Its not just the illness - it's the scale of the illness that makes it terrible.

[PearlJam]

Good discussion and opposing viewpoints from different people.

However, one thing we can all agree on is, people need to avoid crowding, follow social distancing, wear masks, and many other norms that we all know of by now. But, we know that this is not happening on ground. Inspite of getting bombarded with this critical message day after day, week after week, the majority of the people hardly follow it. In cities, they do it half-heartedly just to avoid getting caught, but once you leave the cities, even that is not seen. Our politicians have also messed up the messaging by holding large rallies, and people are seeing the hypocrisy. Probably, the vast section of the public has sensed that the actual numbers on ground are not so bad, inspite of media sensationalism, and most are recovering (right or wrong, but we've had enough discussions on this by different people taking sides in this thread, so let's not get into this part again).

We also know that pandemic fatigue has set in. So many other aspects of life are also getting affected, which is not finding it's way into the "numbers". Like neglected healthcare in other areas, education, economy, hunger, poverty, etc. Large scale lockdowns are going to be politically suicidal for governments in India now (again, let's not debate on whether lockdowns work or not, since we've had enough discussions).

Given all this, what's the solution now? People who are advocating "be careful" - we already know that a vast majority is not being careful. Even those who have been careful have got it finally. All you need to get it is one small slip-up, which you would not even have noticed. All those who advocated "being careful" have now contracted it, right from celebrities to politicians.

So now what's the way forward? Perpetual panic? No, that won't work. I personally think, we will have to take it on the chin, and move on with life. Until a magic cure turns up, or a vaccine that is guaranteed to work against multiple mutations.

[GTO]

Mod Note: Guys, let's cap the discussion on the seriousness of Covid here. Going forward, please discuss the virus itself, current developments, statistics, India-specific news etc.

Thanks for the support & understanding

[fhdowntheline]

Here is some news that could be a bit of a game changer. It was being talked about earlier but somehow never got prominence.
https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/lanc...-ndtv_bigstory

[himarg]

Originally Posted by fhdowntheline

Here is some news that could be a bit of a game changer. It was being talked about earlier but somehow never got prominence.

I thought this was public knowledge since quite some time. Reason I remember is I stopped fanatic sanitization of everything coming in the house as well as my hands multiple times a day after reading these reports many months ago.

Maybe it didn't get highlighted in the media, as much as it should have been.

On the other hand, Karnataka CM has tested positive for Covid, for the second time and has been hospitalized because of fever. I assume he also got vaccinated - hence, neither vaccine (as already mentioned by fellow BHPians) nor prior infection gives long lasting immunity. Hopefully his infection won't cause serious issues - that's the only glimmer of hope in all this doom and gloom now.

[poloman]

Most scary part of the pandemic is, the already infected people getting COVID again after a period of 6 months. This proves natural immunity lasts max 6 months. We have no clear data on the intensity of the infection during the second time.

[SedateMotorhead]

Originally Posted by himarg

I assume he also got vaccinated - hence, neither vaccine (as already mentioned by fellow BHPians) nor prior infection gives long lasting immunity.

He has still not taken his second shot which was due in a few days.
But yes, it is a bit of concern as we still don't know if we'll need a booster shot once every few months?

Pfizer now says a third shot may be needed in some months.

[dragonfire]

This is getting scary, isn't it?

> Rapid mutations
> People getting infected again
> Vaccine not proving to be reliable
> It spreading through air

What are the odds that this one mutates into a deadlier form and wipe out humanity?

[PearlJam]

Originally Posted by dragonfire

What are the odds that this one mutates into a deadlier form and wipe out humanity?

Do you have any hypothesis/data/reasoning for this wild speculation?

[AZT]

Over 1700 tested positive in 5 days; Akhara head dies of Covid.

And this is as of 14th April, Sad scenes.

[ottocycle]

saNOtize, a nitric oxide based nasal spray that has shown very high effectiveness in clinical trials. It's like a hand sanitizer for the nose.
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/...w/82102517.cms

"We are currently working to find the right partner in India and hoping it will be approved as a medical device in India to prevent Covid-19," said CEO and co-founder of SaNOtize Dr Gilly Regev."What I would have loved right now is to go and give this to a whole town in India and show that everyone using it is not getting infected," she said. "We would have saved millions of lives if we could have brought it to market last year."

Regev said getting regulatory approval and funds to commercially manufacture a new product took time. "In order to convince pharma companies and regulators it is effective, you need the data first," she said. "It’s something you can carry with you like a hand sanitiser and use every time you might have been exposed," she explained, adding that countries could also use it to "fill the gap" whilst vaccinating their populations.

I hope the next phase trails are positive and this gets into market sooner.
https://sanotize.com/covid-19/

[DigitalOne]

Originally Posted by dragonfire

This is getting scary, isn't it?

> Rapid mutations
> People getting infected again

What are the odds that this one mutates into a deadlier form and wipe out humanity?

A fast spreading virus doesn't mean it is more dangerous to humans.

A Virus always mutates to more infectious (i.e transmissible) versions but each successive mutation is less dangerous to the host. That's how the virus can survive for longer times in host bodies. This is how evolution works. If it's a dangerous mutation it will kill the host and thus does not spread.
Each species (including virus) works to maximise it's life span and ability to spread.

Please do NOT panic by hearing terms like mutation !!