[PearlJam]

Originally Posted by sentra26

Just to lighten the mood, the last thing we need is a contest between deadly diseases devolving into a he-man batman contest . Sure we can even compare Covid to Dengue, Blackwater malaria, Typhoid, Chickengunya, and cholera (2020 there was an outbreak in Bangalore) all of which are abundantly available here. And things get even more interesting when we get into combination offers especially with Covid in the mix.

And this is how you lighten the mood?

Sorry for going off topic

[srishiva]

Originally Posted by Zen2001

Your premise is entirely wrong! Higher infectivity is not translating into higher mortality! I gave you the scientific evidence and factual data. As of this week! The same also corroborated by private hospitals I work with. What you want to believe (or otherwise) is your choice. Moreover, the ICU, by its very name is a highly volatile mileu, and ICU deaths (from any primary cause even other than Covid) by far will always be much more, than the same case being a non critical one! Again this is a very small fraction. Judging everything by this yardstick is what is leading you to your judgements.
I would recommend reading your daily Google news feeds (I'm not even bothering to mention TV news channels/ WhatsApp/ politicians) with a bucketful of salt unless you can verify the source as purely scientific. But face it, how many have the willingness to do that?

Higher infectivity is translating to more deaths. Its also causing more serious complications, some even linger after recovery. Its also causing many new variants.

Why do you need percentage to show nothing has happened like our govt? In US and other countries they use numbers to show how many times more people dying. Maybe they don't want to hide their incompetence.

If you think percentage makes you feel good its fine. We use population to justify our shortcomings and now percentages.

Let's not get more personal of what one should read and what one should conclude. I am using data as much as you. I am not part of social media. Peace.

[am1m]

Originally Posted by xway

So, please do not take this Corona virus lightly.

My regrets for your loss. Nothing can make up for the loss of a young life.

No one is saying covid is not serious. All that the good doctors on this forum are pointing out are the clinical and ground realities taking an overall view. To us personally as laymen, it comes across as too clinical perhaps. But they are just stating the science.

Originally Posted by xway

Canada, France, UK and many other countries are in lockdown, and so may be here in India too. No matter how much debatable at least it prevents people from getting out.

Please google "election rallies in West Bengal" to see today's news. Does covid not spread when thousands gather? Does it only spread in certain cities at night?

So perhaps we can understand why the messaging might be mixed.

And all that several of us are saying are that let us not repeat the same things like lockdown that did nothing to check the spread anyway and also delivered the double whammy of impacting millions. Personally, I have benefited from these covid lockdowns, no reduction in any necessities and improved quality of life. But I know that is not the case for millions and it is wrong to impose these restrictions on people, when those kinds of restrictions don't do the job anyway.

Let us ramp up vaccinations on a war footing. Serum Institute of India needs 3000-crore to help with production (https://www.thehindu.com/news/nation...le34256215.ece). (That's the price of just 2 Rafales!)

[roamer012]

Today I received the news that my line manager's father has expired. He already had weak kidneys and was infected with Covid last month which led to whole slew of medicines being administered since his oxygen levels were plummeting.

What I am told is that eventually Covid infection was resolved however the kidneys were not able to sustain under the increased dosage of medicines.

Now one can very well argue that the cause of death is not Covid but Kidney failure and they will be right. The fact of the matter is whether it is Covid directly or indirectly, it is proving fatal to a large number of population who other wise might have seen through the last year as well as this year or in other words it has accelerated the eventualities. And when one looses a loved one, it hardly matters what is written under cause of death because invariably one ends up blaming the reason due to which one landed in hospital in first place.

Even the members / doctors who are comparing it with other infectious respiratory diseases are not saying to do away with all the cautions and precautions and neither are the members advocating lockdowns saying that lets all gather and attend political rallies.

End of the day, Common sense of not panicking, keeping oneself isolated (as much as possible) and disinfected, getting vaccinated as early as possible will go a long way in reducing the impact of this virus (Because I think it is an accepted fact that this virus will not be eradicated in entirety) rather than expecting the external factors / forces to come and intervene.

[AirbusCapt]

Has anyone bothered to count the number of deaths caused due to loss of jobs, drop in businesses, loss of income due this insane idea of locking up people, businesses and work? Or is it supposed to be a mere side-effect to hide the glorious incompetence of our greatest ever government, who has all but given up and is now in election winning mode?
Who is responsible for India not having enough vaccine doses to inoculate our working population? Is anyone answerable at all?

[V.Narayan]

Originally Posted by AirbusCapt

Has anyone bothered to count the number of deaths caused due to loss of jobs, drop in businesses, loss of income due this insane idea of locking up people, businesses and work? Or is it supposed to be a mere side-effect to hide the glorious incompetence of our greatest ever government, who has all but given up and is now in election winning mode?
Who is responsible for India not having enough vaccine doses to inoculate our working population? Is anyone answerable at all?

Exporting vaccines to display America like soft power and to enhance the image of Grandus Maximus on the world stage is the main objective. And of course the Ardh Kumbh Mela is all okay. We are not done yet with our Mohd Bin Tughlakesque antics yet. We now have Vaccine Utsav, Captain, and we are complaining!! How ungrateful.

[DigitalOne]

Question to the docs here: From a purely medical perspective, how worried are you now compared to the same period last year (April 2020)? 50%, same as April 20, 200%,....?

[for_cars1]

Originally Posted by AirbusCapt

.. Is anyone answerable at all?

The people themselves (everyone collectively) are answerable to the current situation.

There is no substitute for taking basic safety precautions (proper face mask at all times, reasonable physical distancing and regularly washing/sanitizing hands).
There is no need for lockdowns if the above basic precautions is followed to the core.

Majority of the people are absolutely not following any safety protocols. Just go anywhere and you'll find so many without masks, without maintaining any minimum distance, no hygiene. So in case of a mass and easily spreadable epidemic, multiple waves are bound to happen and no agency can stop it.

No point blaming anyone. People have to become more responsible.

[dragonfire]

Could somebody explain why there is a spurt in cases at the moment? Are they because of the new strains? Or the weather? I mean, we were doing so well until Feb and suddenly the trend reversed.

See the below graph. Apologies for not including Maharashtra in that cos with it, the graph becomes unreadable.

[mvadg]

Originally Posted by for_cars1

There is no substitute for taking basic safety precautions (proper face mask at all times, reasonable physical distancing and regularly washing/sanitizing hands).
There is no need for lockdowns if the above basic precautions is followed to the core.

I really doubt that this virus that spreads via the respiratory system can be stopped by washing hands, wearing a (leaky) mask and sanitizing surfaces. I am pretty sure that by now anyone even remotely interacting with other humans has been exposed to it. It is only a matter of time before every variant of the virus reaches every human. Have you ever tried avoiding the common cold? I doubt even the most fastidious OCD victim would be able to keep this virus away. The only way to isolate oneself would be to get into one of those immunodeficiency bubbles.

The only thing that can stop it creating problems within the human body is the immune system that battles the virus at its level. Vaccines and possibly specific antivirals may defeat it by assisting the immune system.

Lockdowns are ridiculous measures at this point - what are they supposed to achieve? The initial lockdown was to give us time to ramp up our medical infrastructure to help those affected by the virus.

I am not a doctor, but I am just applying simple logic, so I could be wrong if I have used incorrect facts. In my opinion, lockdowns are useless. Avoiding the virus with some silly protocols could delay the virus entering our bodies until the next slip (which could be something as innocuous as wiping our hands with a towel loaded with the virus).

[DigitalOne]

Originally Posted by V.Narayan

We are not done yet with our Mohd Bin Tughlakesque antics yet.

At least, this time around centre has left any lockdowns/curfew decisions to the states, as it should have been done last year also. Some states' CMs have publicly and repeatedly stated that there won't be any lockdowns (e.g Telengana, Delhi). So some learnings from last year.

[greatgyan]

Originally Posted by vivek95

I second you. I am busy, so unable to reply to some of the posts up there. But I too have been saying this since day 1 of the pandemic last year that why should we really worry when 80+% of the individuals are asymptomatic ?? Isn't it better that a disease that has entered your body is not producing any symptoms because of immune system at work ?? Besides, it is now nearly proven that asymptomatic people carry the least or no risk of spreading the disease to others.

Exactly my thoughts!! I've read reports that almost 90% of the people testing positive for COVID are asymptomatic. Why bother then, if you do a general test on me or on anyone for that matter, you'll find 100s of bacteria/viruses in my body. If you do a scan of your surroundings, you'll find 1000s maybe even Lakhs of bacteria and viruses around. Perhaps the only place where you wouldn't find any bacteria or viruses would be an operation theatre (I might be wrong, maybe there also you'll find some).
But as long as I'm unaffected by these, would I panic and create a hullabaloo about it? absolutely not.

So about 90% are asymptomatic and only 10% show symptoms. For most of the 10% symptomatic patients, the symptoms would be mild and they would recover on their own in a few days. A few out of those 10% might need hospitalization and it might get critical for some of them. Lastly, very few out those 10% might succumb to the virus. So we're down to very few out of the already only 10% symptomatic patients who'll end up losing their life. In this context, is a lockdown really justified? Is affecting the livelihood of millions of people and wrecking the economy to protect a very few justified? Didn't people die of illnesses and diseases before COVID?
In my opinion, just like 100s of other diseases or illnesses which we had before COVID, we should treat COVID also as another illness added to that list, which might cause a few deaths but by and large, 98-99% people affected would make a full recovery. No need to create this panic situation and going for lockdowns repeatedly and affecting the livelihood of lakhs of people.
If you ask a daily wage earner out there that would you like to be safe from COVID, which even if you get affected you'll most likely make a full recovery but lose your livelihood for a couple of months, or would you like to continue with your work following some basic precautions and earn your livelihood. I guess we all know what the answer would be.

I came across an interesting statistic with regards to West Bengal, mentioning that the number of tests conducted in the state have reduced drastically since the elections started. Hence the numbers being reported are low for West Bengal. Looking at all political the rallies and roadshows, I'm quite sure that the actual numbers would be much much higher. But if it's not really affecting the majority of the population, why bother? It's not as if we're finding 1000s of dead bodies on the streets on Bengal. Clearly shows that people can still continue with their day to day lives despite COVID.

I agree that there'll be few deaths which is extremely unfortunate. But as I mentioned earlier, people died of illnesses even before COVID. Wrecking the economy and rendering 1000s of people jobless through lockdowns every time we have a new COVID wave is NOT AT ALL JUSTIFIED.

[Eddy]

A 2-3 day lockdown may just remind people to get back to covid etiquette if nothing else. Shock treatment.

[am1m]

Originally Posted by Eddy

A 2-3 day lockdown may just remind people to get back to covid etiquette if nothing else. Shock treatment.

Sure, and while we're at it, let's call in the CRPF too to arrest those people!

[Zen2001]

Originally Posted by srishiva

Higher infectivity is translating to more deaths. Its also causing more serious complications, some even linger after recovery. Its also causing many new variants.

Why do you need percentage to show nothing has happened like our govt? In US and other countries they use numbers to show how many times more people dying. Maybe they don't want to hide their incompetence.

If you think percentage makes you feel good its fine. We use population to justify our shortcomings and now percentages.

Let's not get more personal of what one should read and what one should conclude. I am using data as much as you. I am not part of social media. Peace.

I'm sorry I again have to disagree with almost everything you've said. Higher infectivity HAS NOT translated into higher mortality especially since the new variants kicked in since January. Higher infectivity also had not lead to these variants - infact it is exactly the opposite of what you've said! These newer VOCs with genomically demonstrated mutations (& their effect being higher transmission & lower virulence) are the most likely cause (in part) responsible for the surge in new infections. The other is the casual attitude of both, political leaders (holding election rallies) and people (going to such and other crowded events) with total disregard to Covid appropriate behaviour.
I don't use percentages BECAUSE it makes me feel "fine" - it's the way community medicine works! Otherwise this is analogous to questioning car manufacturers as to why they use BHP, CC, Nm etc to describe the characteristics of their engines!
OT, I (& maybe others) would really like to read your sources of data, if you could quote the same. That's the only way to be objective.

Originally Posted by AirbusCapt

Has anyone bothered to count the number of deaths caused due to loss of jobs, drop in businesses, loss of income due this insane idea of locking up people, businesses and work? Or is it supposed to be a mere side-effect to hide the glorious incompetence of our greatest ever government, who has all but given up and is now in election winning mode?
Who is responsible for India not having enough vaccine doses to inoculate our working population? Is anyone answerable at all?

Capt, do you want to be labelled "anti national" or whatever "---vaasi" terminologies the ruling govt comes up with? Please don't ask such questions because pre Covid, we had the lowest percentage of unemployment, a life expectancy just short of immortality and a per capita income that would put Bezos to shame! Oh wait - I forgot about 1.29999 out of 1.3 billion Indians here, my apologies!
About your closing questions; I'm assuming they're rhetorical.

Originally Posted by roamer012

Even the members / doctors who are comparing it with other infectious respiratory diseases are not saying to do away with all the cautions and precautions and neither are the members advocating lockdowns saying that lets all gather and attend political rallies.

End of the day, Common sense of not panicking, keeping oneself isolated (as much as possible) and disinfected, getting vaccinated as early as possible will go a long way in reducing the impact of this virus (Because I think it is an accepted fact that this virus will not be eradicated in entirety) rather than expecting the external factors / forces to come and intervene.

I totally sympathize with the case you pointed. Remember however, that this is more of an exception than the rule here. And conclusions and decisions (either for an individual or for public health policies) cannot be drawn from such outliers. The outcome of the majority of infections ie: uneventful recovery is what defines everything. And I agree with your thoughts on not letting down our guard, (which has happened, especially after the vaccine rollout) and keeping our sanity and common sense intact and learning to adapt to co exist with this new (unwanted) guest.

Originally Posted by DigitalOne

Question to the docs here: From a purely medical perspective, how worried are you now compared to the same period last year (April 2020)? 50%, same as April 20, 200%,....?

Regarding direct mortality, not even 20% as compared to last year.
Regarding making the same mistakes - 200% as compared to last year.
Regarding indirect mortality, caused by economic repercussions- 500% as compared to last year.

Originally Posted by for_cars1

The people themselves (everyone collectively) are answerable to the current situation.

There is no substitute for taking basic safety precautions (proper face mask at all times, reasonable physical distancing and regularly washing/sanitizing hands).
There is no need for lockdowns if the above basic precautions is followed to the core.

Majority of the people are absolutely not following any safety protocols. Just go anywhere and you'll find so many without masks, without maintaining any minimum distance, no hygiene. So in case of a mass and easily spreadable epidemic, multiple waves are bound to happen and no agency can stop it.

No point blaming anyone. People have to become more responsible.

I agree with you. But then I also have to agree with the politicians who blamed "society", that too on prime time news, for not following precautions while attending their mega election rallies! Why hold such events while at the same time giving diktats against marriages and parties? I'm curious though - have you ever thought why Dharavi (Asia's largest slum near Bandra) doesn't report this kind of panic even today? Or even last year?

Originally Posted by dragonfire

Could somebody explain why there is a spurt in cases at the moment? Are they because of the new strains? Or the weather? I mean, we were doing so well until Feb and suddenly the trend reversed.

See the below graph. Apologies for not including Maharashtra in that cos with it, the graph becomes unreadable.

Mentioned the likely reasons in the top most reply. To summarize :
1. Lack of Covid appropriate behaviour since Diwali
2. Resumption of international travels
3. Immune pressure on the virus leading to mutations that previous antibodies cannot recognise.
4. Select increase in testing in certain states for political gains.

Originally Posted by mvadg

I really doubt that this virus that spreads via the respiratory system can be stopped by washing hands, wearing a (leaky) mask and sanitizing surfaces. I am pretty sure that by now anyone even remotely interacting with other humans has been exposed to it. It is only a matter of time before every variant of the virus reaches every human. Have you ever tried avoiding the common cold? I doubt even the most fastidious OCD victim would be able to keep this virus away. The only way to isolate oneself would be to get into one of those immunodeficiency bubbles.

The only thing that can stop it creating problems within the human body is the immune system that battles the virus at its level. Vaccines and possibly specific antivirals may defeat it by assisting the immune system.

Lockdowns are ridiculous measures at this point - what are they supposed to achieve? The initial lockdown was to give us time to ramp up our medical infrastructure to help those affected by the virus.

I am not a doctor, but I am just applying simple logic, so I could be wrong if I have used incorrect facts. In my opinion, lockdowns are useless. Avoiding the virus with some silly protocols could delay the virus entering our bodies until the next slip (which could be something as innocuous as wiping our hands with a towel loaded with the virus).

Most of what you've said is true other than the statement about easing hands, wearing masks and sanitizing touch surfaces (not in your home, but in common areas). Plus avoiding overcrowding - I won't use the term social distancing anymore, just use basic common sense! Funny you mentioned common cold - recent research actually proves that having a co existent or pre existing common cold (rhinovirus) actually REDUCES the RISK and SEVERITY of Covid 19 in that individual! There's a complete virological study on this.

Originally Posted by DigitalOne

At least, this time around centre has left any lockdowns/curfew decisions to the states, as it should have been done last year also. Some states' CMs have publicly and repeatedly stated that there won't be any lockdowns (e.g Telengana, Delhi). So some learnings from last year.

Kudos to those who have learned from the past. At least, they could be called intelligent, if not wise. Others have just proven themselves to be fools - not having learnt from even their own past mistakes.

Originally Posted by greatgyan

Exactly my thoughts!! I've read reports that almost 90% of the people testing positive for COVID are asymptomatic. Why bother then, if you do a general test on me or on anyone for that matter, you'll find 100s of bacteria/viruses in my body. If you do a scan of your surroundings, you'll find 1000s maybe even Lakhs of bacteria and viruses around. Perhaps the only place where you wouldn't find any bacteria or viruses would be an operation theatre (I might be wrong, maybe there also you'll find some).
But as long as I'm unaffected by these, would I panic and create a hullabaloo about it? absolutely not.

So about 90% are asymptomatic and only 10% show symptoms. For most of the 10% symptomatic patients, the symptoms would be mild and they would recover on their own in a few days. A few out of those 10% might need hospitalization and it might get critical for some of them. Lastly, very few out those 10% might succumb to the virus. So we're down to very few out of the already only 10% symptomatic patients who'll end up losing their life. In this context, is a lockdown really justified? Is affecting the livelihood of millions of people and wrecking the economy to protect a very few justified? Didn't people die of illnesses and diseases before COVID?
In my opinion, just like 100s of other diseases or illnesses which we had before COVID, we should treat COVID also as another illness added to that list, which might cause a few deaths but by and large, 98-99% people affected would make a full recovery. No need to create this panic situation and going for lockdowns repeatedly and affecting the livelihood of lakhs of people.
If you ask a daily wage earner out there that would you like to be safe from COVID, which even if you get affected you'll most likely make a full recovery but lose your livelihood for a couple of months, or would you like to continue with your work following some basic precautions and earn your livelihood. I guess we all know what the answer would be.

I came across an interesting statistic with regards to West Bengal, mentioning that the number of tests conducted in the state have reduced drastically since the elections started. Hence the numbers being reported are low for West Bengal. Looking at all political the rallies and roadshows, I'm quite sure that the actual numbers would be much much higher. But if it's not really affecting the majority of the population, why bother? It's not as if we're finding 1000s of dead bodies on the streets on Bengal. Clearly shows that people can still continue with their day to day lives despite COVID.

I agree that there'll be few deaths which is extremely unfortunate. But as I mentioned earlier, people died of illnesses even before COVID. Wrecking the economy and rendering 1000s of people jobless through lockdowns every time we have a new COVID wave is NOT AT ALL JUSTIFIED.

Buddy, is anyone listening? Haven't we seen reports of police at CST airport refusing to accept pre boarding negative Covid reports and forcing such arrivals to forcibly quarantine (taking away their passport) in 5 star hotels at their own expense, while the same hotel let's them off after "depostiing" 10-15k to escape? What a joke! I have first hand reports of police /corporation officials illegally selling gutka, tobacco and alcohol during last May. There's a target to be met - the more the suffering, the greater the opportunity. Wait and see what happens in the next few months.