[DigitalOne]

Originally Posted by am1m

So on one hand several state governments are 'warning' people, threatening lockdowns again; some districts/regions have already enforced their versions of what they think works.

It is a sense of deja vu - Arbitrary rules, selective curfews/lockdowns, interstate travel rules, RWAs / WhatsApp uncles getting active etc.

And of course, blaming it on "outsiders". Today's TOI Bangalore (print edition) has a pretty incendiary headline (page 4) which I am not linking here.

Folks, we are back in 2020 .

[Zen2001]

Originally Posted by fhdowntheline

I am wondering a bit and the medical experts can guide here- are most of the cases in Maharashtra are triggered due to general change of weather symptoms, typical cold/headache/fatigue, coupled with the fact that the virus is now endemic (but may not be active) in people's system and is being detected due to the RTPCR ?

Basically, the manufacturer sets the test to turn off the cycling or amplification process when a certain number is hit. For a qualitative test set at 40, after 40 amplification cycles, if any viral material is detected, it turns off and is reported as positive. If none is detected, it would be reported as negative. If the number of amplification cycles was really 15 or 25, it would still run until it gets to 40 and be reported as positive.

With these type of tests, it's critical to use an agreed-upon cycle threshold value such as 33 (CDC) or 35 (Dr. Fauci) rather than setting it at a potentially misleading 40 or 45. Many of the current tests in use are preset by the manufacturer to these higher numbers.

The World Health Organization issued a notice last week telling the labs "the cut-off should be manually adjusted to ensure that specimens with high Ct values are not incorrectly assigned SARS-CoV-2 detected due to background noise." Could this be a reason why many people test positive but remain asymptomatic? In that same memo, WHO said all labs should report the cycle threshold value to treating physicians.

The Ct threshold value set by ICMR for RT PCR test manufacturers in India is 40 - at such high Ct thresholds, even inactive and non infectious viral RNA will be amplified and reported as a positive test. Clinically, trash- worthy but epidemiologically and politically a "no questions asked" tool for the government to impose ridiculous diktats. However, this is not a new development - has been the same since these kits were initially authorized. People are only told what they understand and are scared of; that is a positive or negative test, but ICMR clearly advised AGAINST reporting Ct values with the PCR report.

https://www.globalresearch.ca/nuclei...-cov-2/5739959

[PaddleShifter]

Having done 1.5 lac RT PCR test, I would like to clarify one aspect of Ct value.

The cut off Ct value is determined by the test kit and not by ICMR, CDC or the WHO.

Some kits work better than others. Secondly, merely looking at Ct value reported by the RT PCR machine can be highly misleading. The real time amplification graph is the real story teller.

We have reported samples with Ct values of 23 or 28 as negative. Merely going by the machine Ct values will label these patients as COVID-19 positive but a look at the amplification graph makes things clear and saves the person from getting a false positive report.

[m8002?]

The craziness of RT-PCR report is back. And as usual, its always "outsiders" who bring in the virus.

https://www.rediff.com/news/report/g...t/20210325.htm

"Nearly 1,400 cases have been reported in Bengaluru (on Wednesday), which is the highest in the last four months. There is a spike in cases every day. It is increasingly found in passengers arriving in the city from other states," Sudhakar said.

[PearlJam]

It's extremely strange that Maharashtra is reporting a disproportionately large number of the total new cases being reported in the country, compared to other states. Is it because they are testing areas that have a higher probability of positive cases, compared to how other states are testing? For example, it's obvious that positivity rate in an apartment having predominantly older people, will be way lower than positivity rate in a school/college. So governments do have some "flexibility" to play around with numbers here.

Though the Case Fatality Rate is way lower this time around (around 0.5% from around 2% earlier), Maharashtra is still higher than some of the other states.

Are their diets more unhealthy? I don't think so at all.

Are they not following recommended norms? Well, we all know that norms are hardly being followed in any state.

I've heard about multiple reports across Karnataka, where positivity rate is very high (eg. in schools and colleges), though almost all of them are totally asymptomatic. I don't even understand the point of such testing - Contact tracing is hardly being done. You test more, you get more cases. So what?

In short, the official numbers seem suspect across states. The numbers on ground will actually be a large multiple times more. The greater proportion of RT-PCR tests today also mean that more false positives are creeping in to the numbers.

It's unbelievable that Bihar, which has a population of more than 10 crores, has only 1580 active cases, and UP with a population of more than 20 crores, has only 9800 active cases! And let us not forget the extremely low numbers in states that had massive election-related gatherings in the last few months.

[am1m]

Originally Posted by PearlJam

And let us not forget the extremely low numbers in states that had massive election-related gatherings in the last few months.

Because how can anything that our politicians (from all parties, who are spearheading these election rallies) do be wrong? Once the campaigning is over and the case numbers start to rise (or start to be tracked/reported better), first the "interstate-travelers" will be blamed and then the local people for "not following protocols". And by that time everyone would have forgotten the part these rallies played in the spread, and we will all be busy blaming each other for what is happening and demanding restrictions. Even short-term history repeats itself. It's truly amazing to see the same newspaper carrying pics of thousands of people jammed together at these rallies without any comment, and at the same time articles about how people and small businesses are being fined in other cities for "flouting covid rules."

But at least this time around the vaccination drive is definitely picking up pace and pretty soon I think (hope) we'll see the effects with reduced serious cases at least. Fingers crossed.

[pandey.jai]

The numbers reported by MH don’t look good. I have to head back to Pune to vacate my house and it looks like that’s going to be a nightmare with everyone requiring Covid -ve reports. The society I live in also has a lot of cases so I don’t know if it is wise to go back there. Lease is expiring at end of month and it’s getting tough to justify rental expense when I’m not even living there.
Covid has created so many uncertainties and I don’t like them one bit (the uncertainties I mean).

[antz.bin]

The explanation for what is happening in Maharashtra is easy. It shows in the daily 'tests' charts for UP, Bihar and Maharashtra

Here they are:



As you can clearly see, the average tests happening in the October 2020-December 2020 quarter in the 3 states.

Some observations:
1. Maharashtra has practically never overtaken Uttar Pradesh in terms of daily tests right up to the 2nd wave (March 2021). Let's keep UP out of further discussion since it is a much larger state, population-wise.

2. Looking at Bihar and Maharashtra (who have almost the same total population) in the period of October 2020-December 2020, testing in Bihar was always > 1 lakh tests/day and Maharashtra was always <1 lakh tests/day.

Even though Bihar, to date, has only 9% of total cases as compared to Maharashtra. Why was Bihar testing so much even though the cases there were dropping while Maharashtra was not? Is Bihar govt so rich and Maharashtra govt. so poor that Maharashtra could not afford to match Bihar on this metric? Till date, there have been 2.4Cr (2Lac/million population) tests done in Bihar vs 2Cr. (1.7 lac/million) in Maharashtra. Test positivity rates of 14.4% for MH and 1.1% for Bihar.

These BIMARU states kept worked in the off season to make sure the 2nd wave doesn't catch them napping. Maharashtra govt. was caught with their pants down when they were celebrating victory in Feb 2021 and making police complaints against people who were coming in to get vaccinated.

There is just one metric where the work done by Maharashtra govt. can overshadow that of Bihar. And that would be the no. of Vaccines administered (thankfully). The district of Ayodhya (where I spent the winter) has less no. of active cases than the 250 flat wing of the 600 flat housing society I stay in, in Pune.

I understand that the demographics of UP, Bihar and Maharashtra are very different. The difference in the average life expectancy is over 7 years (64/66 vs 73). But that should affect the case fatality rate since Maharashtra would have a much higher no. of senior citizens. But this does not affect the no. of tests done. That was just the will of the govt to make it easier for their populace to get themselves tested.

Anyways, it seems now that the rest of the country is running 1 month behind what is happening in Maharashtra. If that is indeed the case, the worst is yet to come. In fact, some states have already started seeing All Time High levels of new cases (eg. Gujarat, Punjab, Chhatisgarh, Madhya Pradesh).


Heres hoping for the best, wishing good health to everyone.

[DriverR]

Originally Posted by PearlJam

In short, the official numbers seem suspect across states. The numbers on ground will actually be a large multiple times more. The greater proportion of RT-PCR tests today also mean that more false positives are creeping in to the numbers.

I thought RT-PCR test was more reliable among the various COVID test options? The RAT is supposed to be unreliable which is why the standard process is to get an PCR test even if the RAT comes negative.

[dailydriver]

My district reported 51 cases today.

As I had been to a few crowded hospitals in Bengaluru last week, I opted to get tested on my own volition and went to the district hospital on Monday. I had absolutely no related symptoms.

Soon after I received the customary message indicating the SRF ID etc, I noticed that contrary to fact, I was mentioned as a contact of a lab confirmed case and having fever as a symptom.

Complete humbug, both!

It has been more than 48 hours since the test and I am yet to see the result. A quick and clear yay or nay would have helped me carry on my life normally.

What prevents the authorities from dispensing off test results promptly?

If indeed my sample comes out positive, would the responsibility of spreading the virus in the interregnum be as much the Government's as it would be mine?

[I have been taking due care (social distance, minimal interaction, stay at home etc) as per protocols, though remaining in complete isolation is not possible/feasible]

[Gansan]

Never ever test unless you have any symptoms. Isolate yourself if there is any doubt of exposure. But don't test.

[msdivy]

Close to 5K cases today in Karnataka. BBMP tightening COVID rules & guidelines.

[whitewing]

Originally Posted by Gansan

Never ever test unless you have any symptoms. Isolate yourself if there is any doubt of exposure. But don't test.

Can you please explain why not take a test proactively?
Asking because, my brother had come in contact with a person (both were wearing masks at the time) during a commute. This person has now been reported as covid positive (after 3 days of coming in contact).
My brother is now is taking precautions at home to the extent possible. He was planning to take a test tomorrow.

[lapis_lazuli]

So we are at a daily of 93k cases. I was wondering if there's a statistic, as to how many of this 93k, are repeat infection cases. Do our In House docs have anything to say about this? I am going back to a regime of regular supplements and stuff. I vaccinated my mother (covishield) and she's had nasty side effects for 5 days now and slowly getting normal. I am eligible but can't make up my mind. It's coming back at a frightening pace. Herd immunity and other theories seem like Robin Cooks work of fiction. I am sure he's penning one on the pandemic!

[Gansan]

Originally Posted by whitewing

Can you please explain why not take a test proactively?
Asking because, my brother had come in contact with a person (both were wearing masks at the time) during a commute. This person has now been reported as covid positive (after 3 days of coming in contact).
My brother is now is taking precautions at home to the extent possible. He was planning to take a test tomorrow.

It is unnecessary stress and heartburn. When a relative of mine tested positive and was home quarantined in a room for two weeks last September, the doctors told his wife and two daughters need not test unless they had any symptoms. They were told to confine themselves at home for the duration though. They didn't test and were perfectly fine.

The same thing happened at another relative's place in a different part of the city. There too the doctor advise was the same.