[PearlJam]

I fully agree with you. Why only Government? Most of the mainstream media voices had been highly paranoid. All the sane voices had been drowned out by the cacophony of sensationalism. I dare say, many of the posts in this thread also bordered on paranoia, hopelessness, doom, and gloom - in spite of later data pointing to the contrary. We can always go back and see those posts.

All this was probably justified during the first few months - because there were too many unknowns, there was not sufficient and reliable data, treatment options were still limited, and so on. But as the months rolled on, things became much more clearer if you could ignore the noise and see the data, and listen to saner voices.

But, this may be natural. There will be a lot of people whose immediate/secondary family (or themselves) have been directly affected by Covid, and some of them badly. In such cases, it is both difficult and insensitive to point out that in the larger scheme of things, it's not so bad, and they are the unfortunate lot who suffered. In those moments of grief, looking at the bigger picture is extremely difficult. Nor can we expect them to, after what they've gone through *personally*. It takes time, and lot of conviction, to see that the actual statistics on ground are completely different from personal experiences. The fact that the death rates have been very low, the fact that more than 97% of the people have recovered, the fact that active cases are now below 2 lakhs (from around 10 lakhs), etc, are all immaterial. And that's ok - because it takes time to heal from those personal experiences.

It's like anti-vaxxers - A lot of people who have turned anti-vaxxers are actually people whose immediate/secondary family have been directly affected by vaccine injuries.

But it's definitely unjustified to see paranoia even today from some keyboard warriors, who haven't even been directly/indirectly affected, but blindly amplify the paranoia based on hearsay and WhatsApp university messages.

I am in no way advocating recklessness. But taking a step back, and analyzing the situation on ground dispassionately, will do no harm!

[joslicx]

Originally Posted by ABHI_1512

Beg to differ here sir, there is a difference between being cautious and being paranoid.

Well, one of the greatest business leader in corporate America, the much celebrated Andy Grove has a famous saying, Only the Paranoid Survive. He has a book also by the same name. It's an excellent book and he had a class based on it at Stanford Business School.

I don't think its bad to be paranoid. When you don't know about things and survival is at stake then paranoia is probably normal. Then of course, at some point things will have to come back to normal based on eventually how things pan out. For a relatively poor and resource constraint country like india I don't know what better could have been done. I mean, judging by results we have not done bad. We have probably one of the lowest fatality rate in the world. That has to be an achievement of sorts. Yes, there were lot of missteps in between but things could have been much much worse, given our circumstances. Personally I think India has done largely ok so far and has escaped a great tragedy, so far.

[venkyhere]

Originally Posted by am1m

Disagree. This was the only place in the initial 'covid panic' days of March, April, May where we got some measure of sense and scientific interpretation from several doctors like Dr.Vivek, The Rationalist, Zen2001 and many others, not to mention from people who really understood the realities of our healthcare system like Mr.V Narayan. I for one found this thread very helpful in those days. It was a lot better than the fear-mongering the media were putting out and the unscientific 'advice' from friends and relatives on everything from UV lights to banging plates! And I think it continues to be a good source of information and with several useful inputs from people that helps me interpret and give some balance to the headlines.

I am not talking about this thread. At all. This thread is the most "level headed" source of info since covid became the buzzword darling of the media.

I am talking about humanity in general, when I say "blind men describing an elephant". Majority of the scientific community are not allowed to say "we simply dont know, we understand the urgency, but we need time". Research doesn't happen by asking 50 people to simultaneously chisel at a stone to make a sculpture - it happens by asking 4 or 5 good artisans. The 50 people may get it done quicker than the 5 people, but not better than.

Perhaps I should have worded my post better

[fhdowntheline]

I am wondering if we have been victims of an infodemic more than the pandemic itself. I have myself gotten into the habit of checking out the daily statistics at the local and India level (also part of my work profile currently). But its getting to a point that one really cant take any information at face value. Maybe the government will just declare this to be an endemic situation in the next couple of months and allow people to carry on just about all activities.

[am1m]

Originally Posted by venkyhere

I am not talking about this thread. At all. This thread is the most "level headed" source of info since covid became the buzzword darling of the media.

Thanks for taking the time to clarify, and apologies for misinterpreting your earlier post. True man, at times this thread was what helped address my doubts in the face of all the 'fear vibes' I was receiving from the news, relatives, friends, neighbors, colleagues.

Can't really fault individuals for panicking, or governments for their actions in the initial few months (after that, continuing with the same strategy that didn't work was foolish, but that has been discussed a lot already). But after all this, I really only regret the state of the mainstream media all over the world. More than any other agency, most of them have really let us down- complete lack of research, sensational headlines, half-baked reports, relying on twitter and celebrity soundbites rather than fact checking, it's really sad. I used to wonder at my younger friends when they boasted that they 'don't read/watch the news anymore', I thought they were just being willfully ignorant, but after this, who knows, they may have a point!

[Chetan_Rao]

Originally Posted by am1m

...I really only regret the state of the mainstream media all over the world. More than any other agency, most of them have really let us down- complete lack of research, sensational headlines, half-baked reports, relying on twitter and celebrity soundbites rather than fact checking, it's really sad....

You bring up a real sore point, because any researcher worth their salt would vouch for the fact that actual 'research' is painfully slow, iterative, littered with dead-ends and false positives/negatives and needs constant reevaluation. Scientific Rigor, as they call it.

I feel sorry for the actual researchers working on combating COVID, because bits and pieces of a very natural process of trial & error have been picked apart and scrutinized by idiots out-of-context, with minimal or no understanding of scientific rigor, done intentionally to grab eyeballs, clicks and TRP. Science can perform miracles, but not on anyone's stopwatch.

Mainstream media today don't understand others' research, won't listen to those who do, don't do any of their own, say whatever they want because they have a platform, and people will believe them because they're popular. Who cares if the person being bad-mouthed is the leading expert on the subject who's spent decades equipping themselves incrementally for their roles. Expertise is for chumps, anti-intellectualism is the flavor of the day, apparently. Yay humanity!

[civic-sense]

Originally Posted by joslicx

Well, one of the greatest business leader in corporate America, the much celebrated Andy Grove has a famous saying, Only the Paranoid Survive. He has a book also by the same name. It's an excellent book and he had a class based on it at Stanford Business School.

Those who ran at the sight of the predator continued to live and pass the gene of fear to the future generations. The brave who stood there and faced the predator got eaten.

We all posses the gene of fear. The social constructs we have in the modern world helps us beat the gene of fear every day. But faced with an unknown enemy like Covid, the social constructs might not save us from the eventuality. The gene of fear has to trump the gene of stupidity in order to survive.

[Thad E Ginathom]

The whole point of fear is to keep us unharmed and alive. Where there is no fear, to quote an instance we are all familiar with, there is the kind of driving one sees every day from people who are not preserving their own lives, let alone concerned for other people.

Covid has not gone away, and I'm still afraid. Not as afraid as I was nine months ago, and my behaviour has changed accordingly: I am no longer under voluntary complete lockdown.

I think, from the information available to me (which may or may not be reliable) that this part of India is doing well. Doing may not be the right word, as nobody seems to know why much of India is not suffering in the way that some of the rest of the world is. However well we do, it is absolutely necessary to remember the rest of the world: a handful of people and a few super-spreader events and that second wave could be ours yet. We all need to prevent that.

So don't throw away all the fear yet!

[phamilyman]

2021 has brought up COVID19 - Ultra Pro max, dear friends! Time to stay paranoid - err alive!
The UK B117 variant has acquired features of the Brazilian E484K variant. B117 now accounts for 97% of London cases and 85% of rest of UK cases. Time to wear a GOOD mask around other folks, not just any mask!






PS: https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/statu...02000714211328 has more scary deets. Denmark is sequencing genome of every single positive case. India?

This could rise and we wouldn't know what hit us

[swissknife]

It may be worth the while for India to carry out a large scale rapid antibody test on the public to get data on the extent of infections. Considering that most people that I know who have had COVID like symptoms. have treated themselves and have recovered, had not taken the RTPCR test. The antibody test may show if they were infected or not. This data may help the governments in making decisions.

[am1m]

Originally Posted by phamilyman

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/statu...02000714211328 has more scary deets.

For those more interested in nuance, this particular source on twitter has a history of tweets that tend towards the alarmist.

https://science.thewire.in/the-scien...ding-alarmism/

[phamilyman]

Originally Posted by swissknife

It may be worth the while for India to carry out a large scale rapid antibody test on the public to get data on the extent of infections. Considering that most people that I know who have had COVID like symptoms. have treated themselves and have recovered, had not taken the RTPCR test. The antibody test may show if they were infected or not. This data may help the governments in making decisions.

“From the beginning we did not aim at containment,” says Oshitani Hitoshi, a virologist who sits on an expert panel advising the government. That would require identifying all possible cases, which is not feasible in a country of Japan’s size when the majority of infections produce mild or no symptoms, argues Mr Oshitani: “Even if you test everyone once per week, you’ll still miss some.” Japan performs the fewest tests in the G7: an average of 270 a day for every million people, compared with 4,000 or so in America & UK

via the Economist.

Originally Posted by am1m

For those more interested in nuance, this particular source on twitter has a history of tweets that tend towards the alarmist.

South Dakota has had 1 in 567 folks die from COVID19 - of course folks as a South Dakotan he can take alarmist points of view in such a time. No one's perfect. But - do you really have a point of view on the Danish CDC equivalent raising the alarm on this new variant?

Yes, he may be the guy who cries wolf but surely on TeamBHP we can move from the personality to the message? Here's UK govt data on B117 variant becoming the dominant "Variant of Concern".

Same question we face - much higher transmission, slightly higher death rate means hospitals may get overwhelmed again. Most of our members are 30+ - many may be at risk - the least we can do is recognize the danger, go back to great masks and stoically do what we have to. But acknowledging the fire burning in the distance is step 1.

[am1m]

Originally Posted by phamilyman

Yes, he may be the guy who cries wolf but surely on TeamBHP we can move from the personality to the message?

We can also present all the information and leave it up to each one of us to read and decide which sources to give how much credibility to, correct?

All I'm saying is, with the amount of misinformation out there, choose your sources wisely.

[Thad E Ginathom]

This might be more-or-less a duplicate of my last post. I guess I've said it several times in different places...

India seems to be doing well. Nobody seems to know what or how, but doing well anyway.

Some countries have done better. If I remember correctly, New Zealand effectively eliminated covid, only to find it coming back at them. Even if all our numbers drop to zero in all our states, one arrival on a plane with New-Variant-Number-nnn can start the whole thing up again.

England is suffering, largely due to ineffective waffle leadership. It is not a good school of management! But England seems to be doing extremely well on the vaccination front. I'm amazed to see that millions have been vaccinated. I wish India could catch up with that performance.

[fhdowntheline]

Originally Posted by Thad E Ginathom

This might be more-or-less a duplicate of my last post. I guess I've said it several times in different places...

India seems to be doing well.
England is suffering, largely due to ineffective waffle leadership. It is not a good school of management! But England seems to be doing extremely well on the vaccination front. I'm amazed to see that millions have been vaccinated. I wish India could catch up with that performance.

I somehow get this feeling that beyond the mandatory government diktats for HCWs and frontline staff, the extent to which individuals voluntarily take up vaccines will be relatively lower than expectations. This is because of the already waning phase, the virtual zero mask attitude outside core city areas and the ambivalence around which vaccine/ cost, the two-step process and follow up which will be tedious to most. Unless there is a huge blowup of cases / fatalities which penetrate the general populace like the West , in general people wont bother much after the next few months.