[DigitalOne]

Originally Posted by Gsynch

Lockdowns are working or the world over this strategy has been ineffective?

There is only one country that didn't follow any lockdowns - Sweden. Every other country followed some form of lockdowns. Countries with strong federal laws like the US had state specific lockdowns implemented.

So did lockdowns work? Lockdowns worked in NZ, but Sweden without lockdowns is also doing very well. There are so many variables that if one gives a Yes or No answer, they are being dishonest. Lockdowns also depend on the timing.

Another key question is do you prevent infections or do you want to prevent deaths? Infections cannot be prevented by lockdowns; a virus gonna virus. Eventually, it will get you.

Deaths can be prevented if you enforce a lockdown early. Understanding of virus and treatment protocols become better. That's what happened since around May. Even usage of Dexamethasone for late stage Covid started somewhere only in June (Doctors may correct me, if I am wrong). This, I believe, brought the death rates down considerably.

Similarly, this quote from an August 2020 article about ventilator usage is quite revealing:

In April, doctors and other medical experts worried that the government’s orders of ventilators would be too little, too late to meet the initial peak in cases in the spring. But the curve of infections has stretched out for longer than initially projected — and the treatment evolved.

Instead of intubating patients — more common for hospitalized patients during the early weeks of the coronavirus pandemic — doctors are more likely to turn to a variety of breathing treatments. They range from flipping patients onto their sides or stomachs to aid in breathing to using high-flow nasal cannula systems, or continuous or bilevel positive airway pressure machines used for patients with sleeping disorders.

We also have to understand that the initial severe lockdown in March was based on what was happening in Italy, Spain, South Korea, Belgium, or New York city.

But with the understanding of the virus and the treatments we have since June and death rates falling, no lockdown is justified. Still some countries and some states in India are continuing with it is unfortunate.

[Zen2001]

Originally Posted by Gsynch

While the consensus of the thread is that "Lockdowns are ineffective and local government (Indian govt) have used it because of lack of expertise and vision to fight pandemic", developed countries with much greater resources at their disposal are seen enforcing the second wave of lockdown.

"We are all in the same position: overrun by a second wave which we know will be harder, more deadly than the first, he said. "I have decided that we need to return to the lockdown which stopped the virus."

As a person with a non-medical background, this baffles me. Lockdowns are working or the world over this strategy has been ineffective?

Most certainly a ton of bulls**t. We might live with Covid but certainly might die on account of such news media and politicians who have found a new way of scare controlling the common people and bulldozing their way by imposing draconian epidemic acts.

Regarding the objective evidence of EFFICACY of lockdowns -

On May 22, the Indian government claimed that the lockdown had averted a significant number of deaths. Onestudy by the Boston Consulting claimed that the lockdown had saved between 1,20,000 – 2,10,000 lives. Subsequently, the Indian Scientists Response to COVID-19 also announced that it had found that the lockdown had averted between 8,000 – 32,000 deaths
by 15 May.

The purpose of this note is to explain why, even within the context of epidemiological models, and their generalizations, such claims are MISLEADING. Refer to these graphs below and their explanation.

L →70 day complete lockdown (D20 to D90) with long term precautions
NL1 →No lockdown but long term precautions from day 1
NL2 →Delayed lockdown and long term precautions from day 45

L Vs NL2 scenario @ day 90, the NL2 scenario has had 11,722 excess deaths. However, it is absurd to conclude from this figure that L has “averted more than 11,000
deaths”. This is because, at the end of 365 days, deaths in the L scenario have caught up. In fact, in the model, there are less than 56 excess deaths after 365 days compared to the lockdown scenario.

L Vs NL1 scenario @ day 90. Here, in the model, there are 2078 excess deaths compared to the L scenario. But after 365 days, the difference in deaths drops below 28.

The difference in deaths between the lockdown scenario and the NL1 and NL2 scenarios
shows that the difference in deaths appears to become
very large at intermediate times, but then drops to a very small number by the end of the
epidemic.

Viable alternatives to a nationwide lockdown, which were advocated by several public
health experts, may have included early testing and tracing, localized lockdowns, and a
promotion of more sustainable physical-distancing measures, together with a strong focus on
the welfare of people affected by restrictions.

Source: Mathematical modelling using SEIR and INDSCI-SIM models done at the International Center for Theoretical Sciences (ICTS) , Tata Institute of Fundamental Research, Bangalore. Published 18 Jun 2020

Originally Posted by DigitalOne

There is only one country that didn't follow any lockdowns - Sweden. Every other country followed some form of lockdowns. Countries with strong federal laws like the US had state specific lockdowns implemented.

So did lockdowns work? Lockdowns worked in NZ, but Sweden without lockdowns is also doing very well. There are so many variables that if one gives a Yes or No answer, they are being dishonest. Lockdowns also depend on the timing.

Another key question is do you prevent infections or do you want to prevent deaths? Infections cannot be prevented by lockdowns; a virus gonna virus. Eventually, it will get you.

Deaths can be prevented if you enforce a lockdown early. Understanding of virus and treatment protocols become better. That's what happened since around May. Even usage of Dexamethasone for late stage Covid started somewhere only in June (Doctors may correct me, if I am wrong). This, I believe, brought the death rates down considerably.

We also have to understand that the initial severe lockdown in March was based on what was happening in Italy, Spain, South Korea, Belgium, or New York city.

But with the understanding of the virus and the treatments we have since June and death rates falling, no lockdown is justified. Still some countries and some states in India are continuing with it is unfortunate.

Agree about Sweden. New Zealand presented a unique case because of its relative geographic isolation, but has reported cases after relaxation of its lockdown. The truth is, you can't just blindly copy what someone else is doing, but find your own solutions based on your unique situations. The truth is that's where India and many others failed. Lockdowns don't avert deaths; they merely postpone them - read my post reply on the efficacy of the great Indian lockdown here -

https://www.team-bhp.com/forum/shift...ml#post4919629 (The Coronavirus Thread)

Or talk to the top Swedish epidemiologists!

[DigitalOne]

Originally Posted by Zen2001

Lockdowns don't avert deaths; they merely postpone them

The analysis is purely from a statistical view given no other confounding variables. But it doesn't take into account increased knowledge of the virus and better treatment protocols. The simple fact is a person getting Covid in March was at higher risk of death than a person getting it in June, than a person getting it now. So I still argue that the initial lockdown was necessary. Not from June onwards.

[Zen2001]

Originally Posted by DigitalOne

The analysis is purely from a statistical view given no other confounding variables. But it doesn't take into account increased knowledge of the virus and better treatment protocols. The simple fact is a person getting Covid in March was at higher risk of death than a person getting it in June, than a person getting it now. So I still argue that the initial lockdown was necessary. Not from June onwards.

The only confounding variables are human behaviour and preparedness of the healthcare system. The virus and it's treatments have lately reminded the same, being largely supportive in nature. You may argue whether these can be brought upto the required standards in one week or 6 months. That's the duration of a lockdown - to just allow definitive measures to be put in place. Given that the incubation period was well documented between 2 to 9 days, a period of thrice that duration would be more than enough to make the virus extinct as that's what happens when person to person contact is minimised by a lockdown. So extending after mid may made no sense (unless a vaccine was already instituted and mass vaccination begun).

Besides epidemiologic modelling is based on bio statistics, so that can't be refuted altogether. BCG, Polio, small pox were all handled in the same way

[Cessna182]

A close family member got tested for Covid yesterday and was positive. They took all precautions so far. They have elderly with complications in the family and 2 babies as well. Joint family.

I hope my relatives get well soon.

[Zen2001]

Paris witnesses 700-km-long traffic jam as second COVID-19 lockdown begins in France.

https://zeenews.india.com/world/pari...e-2321289.html

Looks like the sequel is beginning with a bang in Europe. UK is already detecting more and more cases week over week. Figures quoted form various sources very wildly between 35000 to 100000 new infections every day, with a doubling time of 9 days and the R⁰ > 1.

[Behemoth]

The Covid Situation is worsening quite a lot in Europe as well as US with huge number of infections happening with the onset of winter.
The world numbers touched Daily cases of 573,000 per day which is really huge.

Somehow the current Covid situation reminds me of the Story of the Wolf - where nobody took the wolf seriously when the wolf really came, because the boy had been crying "wolf" to fool others earlier.

This Pandemic has already caused a lot of damage to society and sanity and hope it gets overs soon. But I feel the worst is yet to come even in India - seeing the current situation prevailing in France now.

[Zen2001]

More on Gilead sciences getting FDA approval for Remdesivir, despite very mediocre clinical results. With so many heath experts in the US itself questioning this approval (& the baby steps that led up to it), including a director of health policy at MSKCC, (backed by trial evidence worldwide), it looks like a 2nd and 3rd wave will be manufactured for the mere purpose of its usage! After all it's winter and easy to put the blame on the flu season.

https://www.firstpost.com/health/gil...r-8966381.html

[Tucker48]

Looking at the current scenario, I'm afraid of this virus the same way I'm afraid of seasonal flu. But we don't have any model as to how this virus will mutate and it will takes years for anyone to come up with a significant model. The only thing I fear is this virus being as intelligent as AIDS virus which mutates quite rapidly. I have read somewhere that scientists said that they will develop a vaccine for AIDS in months and it's been decades as the virus has outsmarted the scientists. Now, scientists are also saying it's not as intelligent but only time will tell for sure and I hope they are right.
I'm not a doctor or in the medical field, it's just an opinion from a layman's perspective.

[mohansrides]

Originally Posted by Behemoth

Somehow the current Covid situation reminds me of the Story of the Wolf - where nobody took the wolf seriously when the wolf really came, because the boy had been crying "wolf" to fool others earlier.

Sir,

No disrespect. But, I am going to conclude that you were joking.

No one took the “wolf” seriously? You really think so? We issued a nationwide lockdown and ruined countless lives. Millions have undoubtedly died or have been pushed into abject poverty thanks to their livelihoods having evaporated overnight. So, is this what you would term not taking the virus seriously?

If anything, we took the virus too seriously. We have been so busy counting the COVID infections (85% of whom don’t even need medical help) while no one has a cohesive report on the effect that the lockdowns and the fear mongering have had on people’s lives. Aviation, hospitality, almost obliterated. Kids’ education completely screwed up. People with other, more threatening ailments left to their fates. The damage from the mitigation measures has been unimaginable.

If another lockdown is issued, every source of income for EVERYONE needs to be stopped; and said monies diverted to a central account used for healthcare purpose. This would be salaries, FD interests, stock dividends, pensions, etc. Basically every sort of income must be stopped for everyone. Every citizen of the country should receive rations and meds and needed supplies from our PDS. This should continue as long as a lockdown is in effect and any monies collected should be non-refundable even after a lockdown has been lifted.

People sitting at home and getting a direct deposit of their salaries, and then investing their savings in stocks and bonds and whatnot thereby steadily climbing the economic ladder while expecting others to give up their livelihoods and go into subsistence living thereby undoing generations of efforts to pull themselves out of poverty; that needs to stop. That is the only way for everyone to realise what it is to live while hoping for the next meal.

[Behemoth]

Originally Posted by mohansrides

Sir,

No disrespect. But, I am going to conclude that you were joking.

.

I think my words may not have been clear. What I meant was that extreme steps were taken which really caused a lot of pain and affected society and livelihoods at a very early stage.
Now when the virus has reached a more serious stage, people are no longer taking it seriously and honestly many people have even stopped taking precautions.
The time to be more careful is now more than ever. Lockdowns are just not the solution to this problem and it is probably only mask usage and hygiene which can help control this virus till an effective vaccine is deployed and reaches a majority of the population.
I feel your pain brother and even I have been affected careerwise by the extreme steps and our industry (construction sector) is in tatters with no hope of revival till at least a year more.

[poloman]

Russia, the fist country to claim development of COVID vaccine is now seeing double the peak they saw in May. This raises serious questions about the vaccine and other treatment break throughs.

Originally Posted by mohansrides

If another lockdown is issued, every source of income for EVERYONE needs to be stopped; and said monies diverted to a central account used for healthcare purpose. This would be salaries, FD interests, stock dividends, pensions, etc. Basically every sort of income must be stopped for everyone. Every citizen of the country should receive rations and meds and needed supplies from our PDS. This should continue as long as a lockdown is in effect and any monies collected should be non-refundable even after a lockdown has been refunded.

Is this real for sure? Why not attach private property as well and continue this even after lockdown? That is real socialism. Let us all go back to caves.

[Guna]

Originally Posted by mohansrides

If another lockdown is issued, every source of income for EVERYONE needs to be stopped; and said monies diverted to a central account used for healthcare purpose. This would be salaries, FD interests, stock dividends, pensions, etc. Basically every sort of income must be stopped for everyone. Every citizen of the country should receive rations and meds and needed supplies from our PDS. This should continue as long as a lockdown is in effect and any monies collected should be non-refundable even after a lockdown has been refunded.

Because I (and many people like me) could continue working from home and get salary, we could pay the maids, driver etc even when they couldn't come for duty. We continue to pay half fee to the private (school) van driver even when we are not using his service. We can still think of buying non essential stuff like clothes, electronics and even automobile which will help many other industries/business to do some amount of business. I was able to even donate some amount to NGOs.
If some people continue to get income, there is likelihood that it will benefit even those who do not have any income to some extent (directly or indirectly, now or later)
Moreover, if people are not getting salaries in their account and the same is diverted to the Government funds, who will have the motivation to work? They would also sit back and wait for free rations
What you are suggesting will take us back to the stone ages.

[mohansrides]

Originally Posted by poloman

...Is this real for sure? Why not attach private property as well and continue this even after lockdown? That is real socialism. Let us all go back to caves.

Indeed. It is pure socialism. No question. And yes, why not attach private property as well? I am an ardent free market capitalist. But I am not afraid to ask these questions.

I was careful to not quote you and start an argument given our history from the other thread. But since you have quoted, let us talk about it.

There has been lots of talk about lockdowns being the reason for our lower Covid fatalities. But where is the accounting of the damage done due to lockdowns and the pervasive fear? How many suicides? How many lives lost to hunger? How many lives will be lost in the coming months and years due to livelihoods lost? Where is the data from the other side?

Here is a small report by the Indian Express in 2018 - https://indianexpress.com/article/op...ssion-5276194/

This says that 3 lac children die in India EVERY YEAR due to hunger. So imagine what would be the case in a lockdown or fear-driven society where the livelihoods of most underprivileged have been severely affected.

To be clear, I actually don’t fault the government for issuing the first lockdown or even the second lockdown. I think that the panic porn that was pervading at that time, courtesy of the WHO, tied the government’s hands. But I do think that the government had the responsibility to dispel the fear after lockdown 2 and to help people get on with their lives.

Truth is that 1 lac or even 20 lac COVID deaths in 6 months in a country of 13500 lacs people is a drop in the ocean. Screw with 13499 lac people’s livelihoods in order to protect 1 lac people. That is the deeply unjust logic of lockdowns. We have enough and more evidence of that now. To argue for lockdowns in the beginning of the pandemic when data was scarce is one thing. But to insist that lockdowns and social distancing become the norm is just plain irresponsible now.

In all credit to the government, they actually started reopening when the cases were on the rise. We have been relatively open now for a couple of months. Cases peaked by themselves and are now flattening by themselves. Lockdowns have very little to do with it. The disease is just not that dangerous. Period. Yes, some died. But many many many more people die of other things and many many many have died because of our efforts to combat COVID. Someone should point that out.

Originally Posted by Guna

Because I (and many people like me)....What you are suggesting will take us back to the stone ages.

Sir,

I think my sarcasm didn’t land at all. Sorry for that. You are actually making my point in some ways.

But just so you know; many people did not pay their maids. Many people fought with and are still fighting with schools to not pay fees.

And many more people simply were not positioned to receive the acts of kindness from people like yourself. For example, what are people in the fitness industry or in the movie theatre business going to do? Can they come and ask you to please pay them although they are not working to provide you with services? You can pay your maid. But who will pay the others who don’t work for people like yourself? That was my point. I was arguing for the extreme case because a lockdown is essentially extreme for many people in society. Look up data on suicides. You will be stunned. And that is just one element of the problem landscape.

[Cessna182]

The extremely sad truth is that covid numbers in India are underreported by at least 50 percent. I was a witness to this recently.

I posted earlier that my relatives got covid. Guess what, only one person got tested and that too from a private facility. Why? Because they did not want to waste more money (costs 2.2k per person) because they know they have covid. I find this logic strange, but I was told that many are doing this. They justify the sudden onset of flu like symptoms by saying that it is related to the change of weather.

Also surprising is the difficulty of getting tested. In some states in Eastern India, the government hospitals are so filthy that one can get covid while visiting them for a free test. It seems that the entire system is designed to discourage people to test, in the hope of herd immunity.

Frankly, I don't think we will see the end if this even after a vaccine comes out. If people are so irresponsible about testing, they'll behave the same way when the time comes to get a vaccine shot. I really wonder why people who can spend 2k INR on an exotic restaurant meal in durga puja celebrations (probably where they got the infection) are reluctant to spend 2k on a covid test. Wishing them well, but this is the responsibility level of our population. If reasonably well off people are doing this, imagine what's happening in the poorer sections.