[Cessna182]

Is there any hope of this being under control by the end of this year? Most countries have reached the peak and are recovering. In India, the cocktail of non challance, belief in fake remedies like cow dung and cow urine and the arrogance of ignorance about wearing masks etc. even in the political class means that we are still going to suffer for long. It would be considered a non-bailable crime to organize political rallies in this environment, but the scene at the Mumbai airport yesterday showed that the ministers and their supporters consider this a joke.

[Thad E Ginathom]

Originally Posted by meerkat

Back in the early days, to one Indian "journalist" the clue had meant that the Covid situation was as scary as if right out of a novel !
.

If only we could wake up one day and find it was all fiction!

Originally Posted by praveen789

https://www.statnews.com/2020/09/08/...nt-in-the-u-k/

Interesting bit - A Phase 1/2 study published in July reported that about 60% of 1,000 participants given the vaccine experienced side effects. All of the side effects, which included fever, headaches, muscle pain, and injection site reactions, were deemed mild or moderate.

Does anyone else see the irony in this? ...

No. I think I'm right in saying that the annual flu virus can cause mild fever symptoms. That's mild, and maybe for a day or so? It is nothing like the disease itself.

The rabies injection certainly gives me an aching arm, but just for five to fifteen minutes, but it's worse for some people.

Mild side effects from vaccination seem quite common. Call me cynical (you'd be right! ) but I suspect that a lot of so-called side effects are imaginary or coincidental, or even projected, eg on children, especially among those inclined to antivaxx thinking. Having said all that, and being very much pro-vaccine, I do see that we live in an imperfect world, with an imperfect pharma industry, and even imperfect science.

Obviously we all very keen to to find some relief from this virus. Let us hope that this pause in UK virus testing is brief, and that the illness (just one person, but it seems like a serious thing) turns out to be unconnected. By the way, I read in the newspaper today that India has not paused tests on this virus? Printed news is always at least a day old; I don't know the latest on this.

[poloman]

I had taken a break on commenting on subject of COVID lockdown required or not. After observing the trends for past two months, I am now convinced that no lockdown or quarantine is going to help you. The moment you step out, you may get infected if there is a virus out there. So if you are willing to spend time at your house till a potent vaccine is discovered, then only sit at home. Else start doing your daily routines with caution.

These daily numbers have no meaning. Either this is managed, tip of iceberg or may be nothing at all as conspiracy peddlers are now claiming. They should stop publishing this nonsense.
Young guys made hue and cry about JEE/NEET exam, JEE exams were completed successfully, did anything happen?

I don't have any inhibitions to admit many on this forum were right and I were wrong. Still I would blame the experts and so called international agencies like WHO for creating havoc on the lives of people.

[Thad E Ginathom]

Originally Posted by poloman

... The moment you step out, you may get infected if there is a virus out there. So if you are willing to spend time at your house till a potent vaccine is discovered, then only sit at home.

Well, I'm not "changing sides" here, but hey, I am going out!

Having been invited to be part of a select audience at the recording of three carnatic concerts for streaming, heck... I'm going to go. There may be around 20 people in a hall that holds 100-150. We will be spaced out. I'll glue the mask to my face and keep distance from people, so it won't exactly be back to the social life that accompanies my music life. At least it will be door to door in our own car. Three days, starting 10.00am tomorrow.

I'm 68. I know we are taking a risk. Well, we'll see what I'm posting in a couple of weeks!

[gthang]

Originally Posted by Thad E Ginathom

I'll glue the mask to my face and keep distance from people

You might be better off wearing a face shield. Easier to take off than a glued mask.. Joking aside, do consider it.

Cheers

[Thad E Ginathom]

Originally Posted by gthang

You might be better off wearing a face shield. ...

That is quite a good idea. It would interfere with the camera (you might ask, which is more important!). Anyway, too late to get one for tomorrow morning. Will certainly get into stock, though. Thanks.

[am1m]

Originally Posted by poloman

Still I would blame the experts and so called international agencies like WHO for creating havoc on the lives of people.

I'm not sure it was the WHO or any expert that recommended the kind of lockdown we had here. And certainly not for as long as we did. That was entirely our government (state and central) and most of us willing. In fact one panel of doctors, asked by the government itself, actually told the Karnataka State government that there was no medical reason to keep the lockdown beyond a certain date, and that was much before. But no one listened because of the panic. Some places are still in panic mode. A colleague is travelling to her hometown and apparently they have an 'unofficial' 28-day quarantine in place for travellers, still.

Funny thing is almost everyone is now getting back to their activities with caution, even those who were most concerned about the pandemic...and at a time when the cases are much, much higher than when we were all panicking.

Originally Posted by vivek95

It was the model of Imperial college of London, developed by Neil Fergusson which raised false alarm regarding infections and deaths in massive numbers.

Thank you doctor, you are correct of course. I totally understand the initial panic and measures. But I meant the continuous extensions of the lockdown, even when it started becoming obvious that it was pointless. That was entirely up to our governments and we continued to support that. All I'm saying is we should not let our elected representatives off the hook by shifting the blame to WHOever.

[vivek95]

Originally Posted by am1m

I'm not sure it was the WHO or any expert that recommended the kind of lock down we had here. That was entirely our government (state and central) and most of us willing.

It was the model of Imperial college of London, developed by Neil Fergusson which raised false alarm regarding infections and deaths in massive numbers. Their predictions for every country including India compelled nations to go for this severe lockdown measures. I had mentioned about this earlier too. Forget Covid, their doomsday predictions for any disease have never come true even in the past

[am1m]

https://www.thehindu.com/news/nation...le32576774.ece

"India likely had 6.4 million infections in May: ICMR serosurvey"

"For every confirmed case of COVID-19 in May, there were 82-130 infections that went undetected..."

"For the survey that spanned May 11-June 4..."


May 11-June 4, wasn't that during 'strict' nationwide lockdown?!

[ninjatalli]

Why are we so surprised by such news updates?

We are much much ahead on the infection curve and death statistics. Just because there is a steady stream of stats flowing in on a daily means (similar to developed countries) doesn’t really mean the accuracy levels are similar. There’s a lot of aspects that support this

- sampling surveys taken across all metros show a much much higher percentage of infection
- the situation on the ground is of caution thrown to the wind since lockdown days, mask is more of under the chin accessory (like we carry a helmet on our elbows while riding a bike)
- the state of the economy and the lack of govt support doesn’t really allow the average man to focus on caution
- deaths go unreported. For eg, Two aged folks deaths on my floor, one was detected as COVID a week earlier, the other one wasn’t even tested for COVID.

We have about another 50 days (or even lesser) to get to #1 spot in active cases globally ahead of the US. This is a given. Expect the govt to do nothing about it. Considering how disastrous the lockdown was for the economy with no forceable benefits, I wonder if that’s the better option.

[drmohitg]

Guys what is the current guideline regarding number of people who can travel in a private car? Delhi lifted all restrictions but what is the status at a national level?

[poloman]

If we focus on daily statistics and 24x7 coverage everything will get amplified. There will be behavior change in population. Govt will take wrong decisions. Now there is no lockdown atleast from Central Govt for last 2-3 months. What is the Govt supposed to do now? They have unlocked everything.

The below statistics is interesting. This is the historical death toll in USA. There is an unusual bump during COVID. But there is a bump during 2018 as well. Did any of us knew there was a major FLU pandemic during that time. We did not have daily update of the cases or deaths as well.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/c...ess_deaths.htm

[proton]

Originally Posted by am1m

Thank you doctor, you are correct of course. I totally understand the initial panic and measures. But I meant the continuous extensions of the lockdown, even when it started becoming obvious that it was pointless. That was entirely up to our governments and we continued to support that. All I'm saying is we should not let our elected representatives off the hook by shifting the blame to WHOever.

Hindsight is 20/20 (!), still better late than never.

What we should have done
After getting the Neil Ferguson report, we should have got experienced epidemiologists, like Spain did, and listened to them. We should have imposed limited (2 weeks max) lockdowns at hot spots, performed contact tracing and testing, when the total number of cases was 1000 to 2000, and isolated those who were positive, thereby limiting the spread.

What we did
We ignored our own epidemiologists.The virus came from outside the country. Passengers arrived at international airports and were not even checked with thermometers, were not quarantined. Other nations were turning back flights, not allowing passengers to pass through quarantine. Symptomatic cases were not flagged and focused on for contact tracing. We imposed a 21 day nationwide lockdown, causing immediate economic distress, causing movement to viilages, resulting in more spread! Here too we were incompetent with contact tracing and testing. Medical institutes were totally unprepared, training and equipment-wise, for the pandemic.

Quote
Had a Skype interview with someone from ICMR ( Dr. Bhargava) He is a professor of cardiology ( possibly AIIMS) very honest, no nonsense gentleman. Told me pretty bluntly that the epidemiology wing of ICMR ( possibly in Pune) is practically useless and that's the reason why he is after people who did PhD in public health under ICMR and working elsewhere.

https://techenclave.com/community/th...9/post-2197188


This is not unusual. Even Western nations, like the UK and the US, initially ignored the advice of the experts. I believe that legislation on who can make technical decisions, whether medical or economic or defense, will soon be changed worldwide, so that professional advice, balanced by second opinions, will be required before action, even ordinances, can be passed.

[am1m]

Originally Posted by proton

Hindsight is 20/20

Agree with everything you say, except this. Long before we reached the 'hindsight' stage, there were a lot of qualified voices (specially on these threads) opposing the sort of lockdown we were implementing. Most of us did not listen because of the panic. The reason I'm belaboring this point like an idiot is because all around me I see a very real public memory shift happening to "oh yeah, what we did didn't work and caused more harm, but at that time it made sense/we had no choice". Anyway the people who took those decisions are not going to be held accountable. But at the very least let us not forget how things actually happened.

[Thad E Ginathom]

Originally Posted by Thad E Ginathom

Well, I'm not "changing sides" here, but hey, I am going out! ...

I'm 68. I know we are taking a risk. Well, we'll see what I'm posting in a couple of weeks!

It was less of a risk than meeting a courier at the gate: we were the only two audience members!

Originally Posted by vivek95

... Forget Covid, their doomsday predictions for any disease have never come true even in the past

Hasn't exactly been a summer holiday!