[Thad E Ginathom]

Originally Posted by DigitalOne

Continued lockdowns, economic distress, and panic have serious implications. ... ... ...

Still favor lockdowns?

I try to sort the arguments into relevant and irrelevant. I try to look at both sides. I recognise that my knowledge to form a judgement is seriously limited. And my answer is

Yes.

But let's be a little less black and white: Does this mean that I think whole nations should be shut down? Not necessarily. I think that quarantine, isolation, lockdown should be used where necessary.

Wake-up call for me. I have been getting careless. We have had steel workers doing stuff around our house for the past couple of weeks. Have been interacting with them. Two days ago, guys (no mask, obviously no thought for virus) came, having restored our car-port bamboo. I was working with them. I have made only one trip out of the house in a long and tedious five months, and to drop my guard like this was stupid.

Well, I developed a peculiar fever and felt quite ill for a few hours. Peculiarly, I feel almost fine now, but let's see tomorrow. And, whether it was covid or not (I might never know, but I'll take tests at some time in the future, hopefully voluntarily).

I'm actually quite annoyed with my wife, who often doesn't put the mask. "I'll only be a minute," etc. No... We are in a new age, with new manners. Not wearing a mask when dealing with others is putting them at risk. Disrespectful; plain rude. OK, so sometimes I forget too.

[v1p3r]

Originally Posted by ninjatalli

Has anyone actually on this forum been stopped or checked while moving out of Mumbai towards Lonavala / Pune / etc? i.e. An actual experience of doing this travel.

Yes, was going to Lonavala last Sunday (ten days ago). Stopped after the toll, asked to produce pass. No pass, threatened with fine. Asked them to show us the relevant legal notification and procedure, firmly but politely. Tone changed to 'This is for your own good' and 'Of course you can go back without paying the fine. Went back to Mumbai without entering Lonavala, which is Pune district. Mumbai, Ulhasnagar, Thane, Navi Mumbai are all ok as they are part of MMR.

[PearlJam]

It's quite clear that there are now three camps of people:

1. The camp that is in panic mode even today (ok, highly apprehensive mode, if you are offended by the word "panic"). Usually the ones who support lockdowns, even partial lockdowns.
2. The camp that is in total careless mode
3. The camp that is a reasonably and logically careful, but strongly believes that life should go on, and have already started doing all their favourite things they have been wanting to do, and allowed to do (eg. eating out, traveling, shopping, cabs, offices, fitness, gyms, etc, whatever your preferences) following masking and social distancing norms.

I don't have any questions for 2nd camp.

My genuine question is to the 1st camp:

• Covid 19 is going to be with us for a very long time
• A "safe" vaccine could be very far away. Even if a vaccine is around the corner, efficacy and side effects concerns remain
• There is a lot of talk about the vaccine not being effective for many people (based on age/comorbidities/weight/etc)
• Herd immunity (whenever that happens) doesn't mean cases go to zero. You could still get infected.
• It is unlikely that Covid 19 goes away completely even after years

What are your plans to get back to "life" and "living"? When (in how many days/weeks/months/years) are you going to exit the "apprehension" mode? How are you going to make sure that collateral damage due to your apprehensions (like anxiety/depression/child development, if you have young children/other health issues that have not been attended to) don't take a longer term toll?

Thanks!

(PS: Not that I'm complaining at all. Traffic on the roads is a breeze, and usually crowded places are much more pleasant now. Thanks to camp 1 for that, I am forever indebted to them!)

[DigitalOne]

Originally Posted by PearlJam

It's quite clear that there are now three camps of people:

1. The camp that is in panic mode even today (ok, highly apprehensive mode, if you are offended by the word "panic"). Usually the ones who support lockdowns, even partial lockdowns.
2. The camp that is in total careless mode
3. The camp that is a reasonably and logically careful, but strongly believes that life should go on, and have already started doing all their favourite things they have been wanting to do, and allowed to do (eg. eating out, traveling, shopping, cabs, offices, fitness, gyms, etc, whatever your preferences) following masking and social distancing norms.

I don't have any questions for 2nd camp.

There is actually a camp 4; people who want to get on with life and do camp 3 activities with reasonable precautions but are stopped by family/office/RWAs who are in camp 1 . I am firmly in camp 4!

[am1m]

Originally Posted by DigitalOne

...but are stopped by family/office/RWAs who are in camp 1 .

Not to forget, the camp 1 people stopping or scaring/shaming camp 4 people, but who will themselves happily do whatever activities they deem 'essential' even if those activities carry a higher risk of catching the virus.

Examples: telling people off for going on drives 'during this time' but going from indoor shop to shop till they find that particular food item; expressing anger at a neighboring district 'because cases are higher there due to irresponsible people' but happily going around in their own neighborhood without a mask; refusing to order food online but can't do without the maid indoors; telling youngsters off for going for a walk in the locality park but happily pulling their masks down to speak to their acquaintances they meet on the road... so many of these I have observed among friends and family over the past few months. Certainly, I too have my blind-spots. And those are what we should be careful about.

(I do like these 'camp' concepts!)

(And since it's against the forum rules, I'm not even touching upon the activities I have heard relatives attending and being ok with (and also those which were covered by the media) that involved close contact with other people, but were deemed ok, because they were sanctioned by religion or tradition, happily attended by several of the same people who are ready to condemn a healthy, safe run in the outdoors as 'not essential'!)

[PearlJam]

Originally Posted by DigitalOne

There is actually a camp 4; people who want to get on with life and do camp 3 activities with reasonable precautions but are stopped by family/office/RWAs who are in camp 1 . I am firmly in camp 4!

No, you are ultimately in camp 1 then . Unless you are successful in bringing them to camp 3.

Originally Posted by am1m

Not to forget, the camp 1 people stopping or scaring/shaming camp 4 people, but who will themselves happily do whatever activities they deem 'essential' even if those activities carry a higher risk of catching the virus.

If they are shaming the others, then they have to be called out for that hypocrisy! But it's perfectly alright it they are quietly sitting in camp 1!

[Jeroen]

Originally Posted by PearlJam

It's quite clear that there are now three camps of people:[list=1][*]The camp that is in panic mode even today (ok, highly apprehensive mode, if you are offended by the word "panic"). Usually the ones who support lockdowns, even partial lockdowns.

There is probably some sort of distinguishing between the make up in camp 1. There are those that are just highly apprehensive. Just because.

There are those that might have some genuine reasons to be highly apprehensive. Those with any type of immune - health issues are very likely to feel the strain of this virus. My wife has Lupus and if she caught this virus it is very likely it will affect her very badly. She caught swine flu whilst in India. And even though we caught it very early it was touch and go for a while.

A good friend of ours has also many health problems, in particular affecting her immune system. She lives in the UK and although the lockdown has been lifted has not left home yet. She feels the risk is just too great.

I am not sure what the statistical changes are of catching Covid versus other life threatening (immune attacking) diseases. But as long as this virus is doing the rounds, with a high infection rates it will not be easy for them to change their outlook, until some sort of vaccin is introduced and the number of infections start dropping significantly and some sort of herd-immunity process takes place. That is going to be a while. And if you know you the likely hood of you dying from this virus is very considerable (Way over the normal odds for your age group) I think it is very understandable you will be very apprehensive.

Jeroen

[DigitalOne]

Significant good news coming from Delhi.


29% Of Delhi Has Antibodies For COVID-19, Shows New Sero-Survey

Nearly a third of Delhi's population has been exposed to Covid-19 and so has antibodies to fight it, the city government said today, giving details of the second serological survey or serosurvey in the capital.

"29.1 percent prevalence of the virus has been found in the second serosurvey," Delhi Health Minister Satyendar Jain said. That meant 58 lakh people in Delhi now have antibodies.

Number of confirmed and deceased as of now (source)



which means the suggested IFR = 4235/58,00,000 = 0.073 %.

Shows the virus is highly contagious but very less deadly.

[DCEite]

Originally Posted by DigitalOne

Shows the virus is highly contagious but very less deadly.

Despite all this, you know what the naysayers will say ? They will assert that the deaths are hidden and the actual death count is much more than what is publicly announced.

[DigitalOne]

Originally Posted by PearlJam

No, you are ultimately in camp 1 then .

Its worse. It is like being in The Matrix knowingly

[am1m]

Looks like similar patterns are being seen elsewhere for sero-surveys. People in more crowded neighborhoods are seeing higher percentages, people who had the resources to isolate better are seeing low percentages.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/...w/77231640.cms

"Mumbai’s first sero-survey has revealed presence of antibodies in 57 per cent of those surveyed in slum pockets and 16 per cent of those tested in nonslum middle-class and upper middleclass neighbourhoods."

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/19/n...body-test.html

"In one ZIP code in Queens, more than 50 percent of people who had gotten tested were found to have antibodies, a strikingly high rate. But no ZIP code south of 96th Street in Manhattan had a positive rate of more than 20 percent."

(Before anyone jumps on me - I'm am not qualified to draw any conclusions and am not saying anything about 'herd-immunity' or whatever, just posting the parallel. But speaking personally, yes I think this is optimistic news.)

[Thad E Ginathom]

Originally Posted by PearlJam

The camp that is a reasonably and logically careful, but strongly believes that life should go on, and have already started doing all their favourite things ...

A lot of them never stopped. They are the ones making sure that those of us who would like to take reasonable precautions have to take perhaps-less-reasonable ones.

As to those of us (nb: I speak as a member of a somewhat-higher risk category) who are more or less locking ourselves away, and are asked, what about the future?... Damned good question. I've no idea. But six months seems to be no time at all in the age of covid-19, and it maybe that a year or more will not be long. The classical-music community of Chennai already knows that it's December music season, as a physical live event, is effectively cancelled.

Just go out and start living again is not an answer.

[mukeshgoel]

Originally Posted by am1m

"Mumbai’s first sero-survey has revealed presence of antibodies in 57 per cent of those surveyed in slum pockets and 16 per cent of those tested in nonslum middle-class and upper middleclass neighbourhoods."

That may be because those middle-class and upper middleclass are taking more precautions like maintaining social distance, use mask and not living 8 people in one small room. Even if they have capability to match 57% of slum pockets, they just didn't encounter the virus and therefore didn't develop antibodies.

[am1m]

Originally Posted by mukeshgoel

That may be because those middle-class and upper middleclass are taking more precautions like maintaining social distance, use mask and not living 8 people in one small room. Even if they have capability to match 57% of slum pockets, they just didn't encounter the virus and therefore didn't develop antibodies.

Oh certainly, that's kinda what I meant by:

Originally Posted by am1m

...people who had the resources to isolate better are seeing low percentages.

[srishiva]

Reading news about people already having antibodies to fight Covid, are these antibodies specific to Covid ? I have been having this doubt and wanted to ask for some time now.

Now this article mentions that T-cells could act on them since there are similarities with other virus. That could be why there are so many Asymptomatic people.

https://www.smh.com.au/national/scie...18-p55mw2.html