A question I've been having for some time now:
Aren't we all overreacting/panicking with this whole Covid thing? Let me explain. We have a lot more data now than we did 2 months ago.
If you see
https://www.worldometers.info/corona...country/india/, the current deaths in India stands at 15042, and positive count is 481179. We are testing around 2.1 lakh a day, and around 16000 are showing up as positive every day. As we all know, 2.1 lakhs a day is an incredibly small number relative to the size of our population.
Now suppose we were testing 10 or 20 times of this every day, i.e 21 or 42 lakhs a day. What do you thing would be the daily positive case count? Guess? We don't know, but it will definitely be many more times of 16000. It means that a lot more of us are infected, probably asymptomatic, all without even knowing about it. An ICMR test in some containment areas apparently found a very high antibody count, signifying that a lot more people have got infected and recovered without being aware of it.
Now, see this article:
https://in.dental-tribune.com/news/n...inst-whos-3-4/ "The new CDC estimates for the severity, complications and deaths of COVID-19 bring down the numbers much lower making the overall scenario very optimistic. There is an ever-growing confusion between the two terms used for the death (fatality) rate. Read the addendum to understand the difference between the two numbers - CFR vs IFR. The original WHO numbers give an estimate of Case Fatality Rate (CFR). The new CDC numbers represent the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR)." For the first time, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has given a realistic estimate of the overall death rate for COVID-19, which in its most likely scenario is 0.26 %. They estimate a 0.4 % fatality rate among the symptomatic cases. If you consider their projection that 35% of all infected cases remain asymptomatic, the overall infection fatality rate (IFR) drops to just 0.26 %. This is almost exactly what the Stanford researchers had projected in April 2020.
As per various reports, infection fatality rate is around 0.3%. Some reports even report a lower percentage.
Some modelling by so called "experts" initially predicted a death rate of 30 times of seasonal flu. It now seems to be only 3 times of the flu now, with chances of it being lower still.
The IFR is close to zero for children. The IFR is extremely low for people below 50. The IFR goes higher with age and comorbidity.
Remember that modelling experts have gone horribly wrong in the past. Whether it's the mad cow disease or swine flu. Modelling also doesn't take interventions/new solutions/new strategies developed during the course of the disease into consideration, and predict a "flat" result without feedback.
Here's another article quoting CDC which is even more detailed:
https://reason.com/2020/05/24/the-cd...ate-below-0-3/
Now coming to lockdowns, I assume this is what happens: The Government asks a group of experts - "
should I lock down?"
Now the "expert" has a lot riding on his shoulders. He looks at what Wuhan did, and sees that things became better after the lockdown. He also thinks "
If I suggest that a lockdown is not required, and then if things deteriorate, I will be blamed. On the other hand, if I suggest a lockdown, I am safe. If cases go up, I can say that things would have been worse without a lockdown. If things get better, then I can say that lockdown has helped". Hence, it's a no-brainer to suggest a lockdown. On the other hand, suggesting otherwise needs a lot of courage.
(PS1: We say 481179 are positive in India. Really? I would assume atleast 20 times of that. Even if the death rates are 3 times of official count, it would be 45000. Case fatality rate should hence be around 0.46%)
(PS2: These official death numbers don't even reflect the thousands of lives lost due to extended lockdowns beyond the first 3-4 weeks. Deaths due to starvation, migrants, depression, people who couldn't receive regular medical care, etc.)
(PS3: The lockdown first 3 weeks were only meant to buy time and set the infrastructure ready. Now with the extended 2 months lockdown, looks like we have the worst of everything)
So in short, it looks the elderly and vulnerable have to be protected, and the rest should be simply freed up from all restrictions. Obviously, all social distancing norms, hand washing, etc needs to be promoted and the masses educated. Nothing really more than that.
I'll be happy to hear contrasting views!