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Originally Posted by msdivy Yes, we can learn more. |
Glad you agree there is still more to learn about this virus
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Originally Posted by msdivy But we have to apply what we know till now and not to worry about imaginary possibilities. |
Well, what you and the scientist consider imaginary possibilities is very different I believe.
I do agree with having to move forward, but to date nobody can tell you what the optimum social distancing is. So different standards being used across different countries. Which apart from the potential medical considerations has a huge impact on how society goes back to normal. Whether you believe it should be 1.5 m (e.g. the Netherlands) or 2.0m (The UK) makes a massive difference.
E.g. how many people can fit into a bus, a cafe, a cinema, a train under normal circumstances, at 1.5m or at 2.0 m distances. The differences are huge. One thing is absolutely sure. No person in that bus, cafe, cinema, train means nobody gets infected in that bus, cafe, cinema or train.
So to say that social distancing works is simply incomplete. The concept works obviously. At infinite social distancing the virus will die out, but anything less starts introducing a risk.
That doesn’t mean we should stay lock up for ever. But people need to understand social distancing comes with its own set of uncertainties.
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Originally Posted by msdivy Most of them are old and they try go deep on,
* How did coronavirus jump to humans?
* How is it perfectly adapted for stealth and mass transmission?
* Does it affect the pets? |
No they are not old, they just havent been understood still!
Could be extremely relevant! And scientists are desperately trying to figure it all out. Not because they are scientists and just want to understand. On this one all scientific effort is aimed at getting the virus under control and hopefully rid the world of it.
Just some of the topics we just don’t know, in random order
1) How many people have died due to the virus
We simply don’t understand how deadly the virus is. This is also partly due to the problem on how deaths get measured and reported across different countries. So comparisons between data is tricky at best.
2) Symptons
Doctors to date are still finding new symptoms.
Have a look here:
https://www.newyorker.com/science/me...about-covid-19
Most people have mild symptoms, or even none. As we know some people suffer very badly, but we don’t know why.
Another angle is to find better treatment. Whereas ultimately a vaccine is going to solve all of this, it would be extremely useful if we could treat the symptoms more effectively. If we could half the rate of people ending up on the IC because of better treatment, on top of all the other measures, that would be a huge gain. Unfortunately, to date as so little is understood what this virus does an effective treatment is not something that will materialise soon.
3) The role children play in spreading the virus
We know children can catch the virus. In most cases they have little of very marginal symptoms. But what is unclear to what extend children play a role in spreading the virus. That is why you see massive differences between countries in their approach to closing and re-opening schools.
The last couple of weeks it has become clear that a small percentage of children does get affected badly by the virus. Why is totally unknown.
4) Seasonal impact on the virus
It is unknown whether seasonality has any impact on the virus and it spreading
5) Immunity
In essence, there are no knowns at all when it comes to immunity yet. Nobody knows for sure whether a person that suffered from Corona builds up immunity, correlation between severity of the illness to immunity.
6) Where did the virus originate from?
Not known, but relevant. Without this piece of information the virus could pop up again and again. We are literally mopping up, without having found the leak.
So I think much of this virus is simply not understood. When you start thinking through what that means for moving forward, it must be clear that everything we do comes with a risk factor. A risk factor that is not very well understood or defined as well.
I would be the first to agree the world needs to move on, cautiously. But there seems to be two approaches on how to communicate about this:
There are those that downplay our understanding of the virus. (E.g. we know all we need to know, social distancing works, don’t worry about where the virus came from, wear a mask, don’t wear a mask etc)
And there are those that are being very transparant about what we do and do not know and show us how they factor that into their decision making.
I absolutely detest people that tell me not to worry about complicated stuff. I look up to people who can explain and are on top of all details and take me on a journey that clearly shows me all the risks and how we are going to deal with it.
Look at the difference between how Trump talks about all of this and some Western Leaders (Eg. Mrs Merkel, Mr. Rutte etc)
Jeroen