[ninjatalli]

Honestly IMO, we are not even half-way of the first wave of the virus infections in our country. And this amazing graph put out by Prof Shamika Ravi (Twitter ID: @ShamikaRavi) clearly illustrates the same

On a comparison note, check out

# Germany, S.Korea, Iran - those are clear indications of the curve already flattened out and going down.

# US, UK, Russia - definitely not even close to the half-way mark. And with the current antics of lockdowns being lifted in several US states, this is definitely going to explode even more!

# Italy, France, Turkey, Spain - they seemed to have gone beyond the half-way mark. Unfortunately, they still have to do the second half of infections and probably deaths. Thankfully their healthcare would be much better scaled up to handle it so lesser deaths than the first half for sure.

# Brazil seems to be an anomaly! Maybe incorrect data reporting on the recovered percentage share?


Source link

The silver lining for India - we seem to be flattening the curve better than the other countries in the above image. The majority of the timelines being in lockdown, irrespective of whether it was the best decision taken, it probably did help for sure.

The downside? The experts supporting our government are also aware of this; so I don't expect the lockdowns to go down for a while. Even if they are lifted across some regions, any sudden increases would probably bring it back to square one asap!

[AZT]

Privacy concerns flare up over contact tracing apps

SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - U.S. states promoting apps that could prove essential to ending the coronavirus lockdown may be headed for a showdown with the two Silicon Valley companies that control key software on 99% of smartphones over the collection of sensitive GPS location data.

...

Some people are completely opposed to an intrusion on privacy but there’s a younger generation sharing their location on dozens of apps. There may be a set of people highly social, young and going out to bars who may see this tool as fantastic.

Read more: https://in.reuters.com/article/healt...-idINKCN22704K

[am1m]

Originally Posted by ninjatalli

# Brazil seems to be an anomaly! Maybe incorrect data reporting on the recovered percentage share?

Been wondering about Brazil too. Every news report I've read from March onward takes the line that Brazil is being complacent and careless and the deluge of deaths is just around the corner for that country. Yet the death toll is not even in the top 10.

(I'm just clarifying that I don't know and am asking, and I'm not saying what Brazil is doing is correct.)

So what's going on? Are they under-reporting massively? But as far as I know, Brazil is not like N Korea or China where the govt can effectively control the narrative, so by now something must have gotten out about the actual numbers.

[PGA]

https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-asia-india-52363791

Beside Serum Institute, Bharat Biotech and Zydus in the race too. Adar also speaks about capability of delivering numbers. Good to hear we are in the forefront of the activity.

[akp]

Originally Posted by vivek95

I just happened to take note of this interesting finding and wrote it on a rough paper to share it here. Information sourced from world o meter website. Lists out the country wise total number of tests performed against total positive cases caught. Too early to comment anything but looks like there is a predilection towards colder countries.

Interesting observation. It is possible climate will have a role, but while looking at data, one thing that can often happen subconsciously is, one tends to notice the part that supports one's conjecture. Here for example, if you also include the data for, say, Russia, Canada, Poland, Czech rep, Norway, Denmark, Bangladesh, the effect of climate will become confusing again.

[The Rationalist]

Kerala has come to the conclusion that Community spread has happened as there are cases with no contact history to Covid-19 patients. I have been suspecting this and have posted that we are already in stage 3. But Central and State governments have been denying that all this while. So much for transparency in a democracy! Did they think they will be able to hide truth forever?

If we don’t start testing everyone with symptoms of respiratory infection and random testing of people in that area, things will get out of hand. We are still testing way below other countries as per tests per million population. Even our neighbouring countries are testing more, what’s the excuse of ICMR now? They can’t still stick to their earlier guidelines. Hope they think and act fast.

[aadya]

Originally Posted by The Rationalist

If we don’t start testing everyone with symptoms of respiratory infection and random testing of people in that area,

Simple screening protocol would be to test people who have any respiratory distress and those who are getting admitted to hospital for whatever the reason. That would be small number in comparison to random community screening. Any positive should lead to contact tracing and testing them even if asymptomatic.

[_chikku]

Originally Posted by The Rationalist

Kerala has come to the conclusion that Community spread has happened as there are cases with no contact history to Covid-19 patients. I have been suspecting this and have posted that we are already in stage 3. But Central and State governments have been denying that all this while. So much for transparency in a democracy! Did they think they will be able to hide truth forever?

If we don’t start testing everyone with symptoms of respiratory infection and random testing of people in that area, things will get out of hand. We are still testing way below other countries as per tests per million population. Even our neighbouring countries are testing more, what’s the excuse of ICMR now? They can’t still stick to their earlier guidelines. Hope they think and act fast.

Completely agree with you. It's been a more than month now, both governments state and center, had enough time to set up infrastructure for testing. I am seeing there is no significant increase in tested number at all. It seems testing is done only when they want to see positive cases.
By the way, what is the actual process of testing in lab ? How much time does it take?

[akp]

Originally Posted by The Rationalist

If we don’t start testing everyone with symptoms of respiratory infection and random testing of people in that area, ..

I think it has to be the opposite. First do tests based on random samples to detect pockets, then do more thorough testing in those regions. Outside those pockets where there are very few cases detected, try contact tracing there. Over and above this, those with respiratory problems need to be tested.

Another point I am worried about is the strategy adopted regarding the positive cases detected. Among those tested positive, those with no or very little symptoms should be isolated at home whereever possible. By bringing all of them to the hospital, we will expose the healthcare staff unnecessarily, and exhaust resources more. Also, this won't remain a feasible option if and when lockdown goes and the numbers explode.

[himarg]

Originally Posted by The Rationalist

Kerala has come to the conclusion that Community spread has happened

Indeed this is scary. I have not found any news item mentioning this - can you please point me to the source of this information?

[sandsun7]

Originally Posted by The Rationalist

Kerala has come to the conclusion that Community spread has happened as there are cases with no contact history to Covid-19 patients.

Clarification: No signs of community transmission in Kerala yet, says minister Shailaja.
She, however, warned that it cannot be said that the stage would never occur in the state"

https://english.manoramaonline.com/n...-shailaja.html

[luvDriving]

I had a question on the number of infected reported by the government agencies. I do not include the media because it seems that all they want to do is to scare people into watching their channels all day long hoping for any good news.

I remember in the initial days of lockdown, the Maharashtra health minister saying in an interview that the number of infected will always increase e.g. Suppose 100 people were infected today, then 50 got discharged due to negative test reports and 2 succumbed to the virus and a further 25 got infected, then the total infected figure will be 125 and not (100-52 + 25 = 73) as it should be.

I fail to see the logic behind this or is it to prevent miscalculation and report each number separately ie total_infected_till_date, deaths and discharged ?

BTW I rarely see the local news media reporting the number of people getting discharged - maybe its reported once or twice per day.

[The Rationalist]

Originally Posted by sandsun7

Clarification: No signs of community transmission in Kerala yet, says minister Shailaja.
She, however, warned that it cannot be said that the stage would never occur in the state"

It states, The minister told reporters that though the authorities have not been able to trace the source of the virus in some patients who tested positive recently, investigations were on.

So what does this sentence mean? As far my English goes, it means these patients have not had direct contact with any of the known patients. Then from where would have they got it from? Community of course! But NO, there is NO community transmission

And another gem in same article, As per the nature of the virus, we may not be able to identify the source of infection in all persons

[mvadg]

Originally Posted by am1m

Been wondering about Brazil too...
So what's going on? Are they under-reporting massively? But as far as I know, Brazil is not like N Korea or China where the govt can effectively control the narrative, so by now something must have gotten out about the actual numbers.

I'm following Brazil keenly too. Don't know what to make of it, except that Brazil is made up of two distinct populations (races?), those of European descent and the native South Americans.
Since a large number of people oppose Bolsonaro's anti-lockdown stand, including those in his government, it is likely that that the figures are quite accurate.

[Sankar]

L Strain is causing more deaths?

Gujarat’s high fatality rate could be due to the significant presence of L strain of coronavirus over the S strain, said Dr Atul Patel, infectious disease specialist at the Sterling hospital, which is one of the three private hospitals in Gujarat designated to treat COVID-19 patients.

Src: https://indianexpress.com/article/in...virus-6379410/

Originally Posted by The Rationalist

It states, The minister told reporters that though the authorities have not been able to trace the source of the virus in some patients who tested positive recently, investigations were on.

So what does this sentence mean? As far my English goes, it means these patients have not had direct contact with any of the known patients. Then from where would have they got it from? Community of course! But NO, there is NO community transmission

And another gem in same article, As per the nature of the virus, we may not be able to identify the source of infection in all persons

Source untraceable/not known but still no signs of community transmission. Heights of optimism It is now known that most of the infections are asymptomatic.