[rdst_1]

Another update from the WHO epidemiologist who is now working for ICMR -

Taking my words back, received very detailed maps.
It's around 5 in the morning here. I am almost done with Das Nagar, Howrah. It was difficult, considering the population density.
However, think I did a decent job. If they can adhere to 70 percent compliance, outbreak will be prevented ( with working public transport) 58 percent compliance ( without/ upto 46 percent public transport) both assume > 90 percent private registered vehicles ( calculated 3 passengers in each car, 2 in two wheelers) couldn't include bicycles ( no data). Did include 100 percent of usual trucks etc. through 2 highways.
Anyone from Howrah here?
India does have some dedicated govt. employees.
I forgot the name of the Bengali guy from the Howrah office. He was up with me the entire night.
He probably never seen this kind of work being done and seemed very interested in the calculations. He is the real hero ( earns less than a thousand euros after working 25 years in the same job!!) These guys are true assets of a country

P. S. - If the mods feel that these updates are not relevant and would like me to stop posting these here, you'll only need to tell me once and I'll stop posting them.

[himarg]

Originally Posted by rdst_1

P. S. - If the mods feel that these updates are not relevant and would like me to stop posting these here, you'll only need to tell me once and I'll stop posting them.

I cannot speak about the mods but for myself. This information is quite helpful, and I would request you not to stop - unless directed by mods.

[meerkat]

Originally Posted by DCEite

Well, another day, another study. This time on the effect of heat and humidity on the virus. And this time its good news specially for India as we approach the heat wave conditions.

Unsurprisingly, Donald Trump seized on this, and

asked Bryan an extraordinary question: “So supposing we hit the body with a tremendous, whether it’s ultraviolet or just very powerful light and I think you said that hasn’t been checked but you’re going to test it. And then I said supposing you brought the light inside the body, which you can do either through the skin or in some other way. And I think you’re going to test that too?”
.

.


Well, here is a view on this study from an expert:

Dr. Irwin Redlener, the director of the Center for Disaster Preparedness at Columbia University, told the MSNBC network: “Everything that this scientist talked about from homeland security was basically incoherent, nonsensical, not really supported by evidence and really quite contrary to a lot of things that we do know about some of the things he was saying.

“First of all, people do get Covid, have been getting Covid in warm climates, including New Orleans but also other countries that have a warm climate right now. Second of all, this issue with UV light is hypothetical but also UV light can be very harmful and we did not hear anything resembling a balanced discussion of what the evidence is for and against UV light, but it’s certainly not ready for prime time.”
.

Mr. Bryan (undersecretary, Homeland Security), had also reported that

tests had been carried out with disinfectants. “I can tell you that bleach will kill the virus in five minutes. Isopropyl alcohol will kill the virus in 30 seconds
.

Jumping on this one too,

Donald Trump has stunned viewers by suggesting that people could receive injections of disinfectant to cure the coronavirus
.

Dr. Irwin Redlener's comment on this:

The very fact that the president actually asked somebody about what sounded like injecting disinfectants or isopropyl alcohol into the human body was kind of jaw-dropping.
.

Read it all here:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...t-disinfectant

.

[Miyata]

Originally Posted by DCEite

the effect of heat and humidity on the virus.

There could be more than what the quoted number such as "In a room at 70-75F temperature with 20 per cent humidity, the half life of the virus is about an hour" suggest.

The human body is at about 37C (98.6F). The cells have enough fluids to have the humidity much higher than 20 percent from the perspective of the virus. Virus seems to be thriving under these conditions inside the body.

Outside, the effect of UV radiations have been very well documented since many many years.

Some reports are calling it "game changing", but really speaking it's the same game that has been continuing time and again. No game has changed - whether it's broader UV radiations or narrow window of it.

This is where there's a discrepancy between scientific reporting for mass media and journal publications - the mass media ones get hyped up and played out bigger than they actually are. Has been happening since ages now.

Much of the UV/heat/humidity related information is not really novel - they have been the norm. Except possibly one thing - how these parameters affect this particular strain(s) of the virus.

[meerkat]

"Most Disturbing": Doctors' Open Letter to Mamata Banerjee On COVID-19

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/coro...urbing-2216875

A group of non-resident medical professionals have written an open letter to West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee raising concerns over the "gross under-testing" and "misreporting of data" on the cause of death of COVID-19 patients.
.
.
.....we have come across or watched with growing concerns, reports on the COVID-19 situation in West Bengal. There are two specific issues that are most disturbing to us: 1) the gross under-testing in West Bengal, and 2) the misreporting of data on the cause of death in COVID-19 patients," the letter said.

Citing a report published in news agency Reuters, the doctors said that West Bengal has conducted just 33.7 tests per million as against national average of around 156.9 per million, despite having the capacity to conduct around 1,000 tests a day.
.
.
"The gross underestimation in the number of truly affected cases may have potentially dangerous consequences, specifically in 1) not being prepared with adequate healthcare capacity to handle the pandemic burden in the state, and 2) failing to arrest the spread of the infection by asymptomatic cases who may be spreading unknowingly," it added.

The same news was reported in other prominent newspapers too. Here is from the TOI:

They said that there is evidence that mortality data in Covid-19 patients emerging from West Bengal are misreported or not fully reported adding that it has been reported that deaths due to Covid-19 are being misclassified on death certificates as deaths due to a comorbid condition or organ failure, etc.

The current mortality data in Covid-19 patients from West Bengal is unreliable, the letter said.

"Not reporting the underlying Covid-19 as the cause of death is a falsification of data. In the face of a pandemic, World Health Organization (WHO) and Indian Council for Medical Research (ICMR) guidelines instruct hospital staff, medical examiners, and other health officials to report the primary and underlying causes of death in the death certificate," it said.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/...w/75326712.cms

Under pressure due to such reports from many sources (as well as from the central government), today (24-04-2020),

For the first time, Bengal has officially linked 57 deaths to coronavirus. The state government today revealed that according to its death audit committee, 57 COVID-19 patients had died, but asserted that 39 of these were due to co-morbidities.

Only 18 of the deaths were because of COVID-19, Bengal Chief Secretary Rajiva Sinha told the media.
.
.
.
The controversy over the audit committee started after an April 2 press meet in which an expert committee announced that the total number of deaths on that day stood at seven, four in the previous 24 hours.

Within an hour, the Chief Secretary called another press meet in which he said the expert committee figure was "an error" and the actual figure was still at three. An audit committee to confirm the cause of death was then set up.

The expert committee has never addressed another press conference since, nor has the audit committee.

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/coro...rs-aft-2217742


It is interesting to note that, using the same yardstick, about 80% of the Covid-19 deaths reported by Maharastra would be ruled out due to co-morbidities!

[subraiyr]

Hi All

A quick update. My cousin based in Switzerland who works for a Pharma firm in product development messaged me yesterday. Apparently a lot of kids are showing up rashes just like measles or chickenpox or frostbites or something called slap cheek rash. On testing it was concluded that they were asymptomatic corona patients. Apparently this has come up in America as well. According to her the RT-Pcr market is not picking it up. I am not a medical person. So not sure what that means. The suspicion is that it shows up in the mid period or end period of infection
This is just for information. The jury is still ou there on this, but the sources are credible from the health industry

https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/coronavi...mptom/2355498/

[srishiva]

Originally Posted by meerkat

It is interesting to note that, using the same yardstick, about 80% of the Covid-19 deaths reported by Maharastra would be ruled out due to co-morbidities!

Guess most deaths everywhere can also be linked to lower immunity.
Ego issues that have always been on display.

[V.Narayan]

India's lower death rates seems to defy coronavirus trend

https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/newsi...cid=spartanntp

Excerpts:

Parts of India have recorded dramatic falls in mortality rates after a nationwide lockdown was imposed to fight the new coronavirus, suggesting there has not been an undetected surge in virus-related deaths. …….While death rates in some countries have risen sharply in recent weeks, in India the opposite seems to be happening, at least in some places, leaving hospitals, funeral parlours and cremation sites wondering what is going on.

"If we're not seeing an increase in deaths, the suspicion that there may be more COVID-19 fatalities out there is not true," said Giridhar Babu, professor of epidemiology at the Public Health Foundation of India………Indian doctors, officials and crematorium employees suspect the lower death rate is in large part attributable to fewer road and rail accidents.
"Road accident cases, and even patients with alcohol or drug abuse, stroke and heart attacks have been coming in fewer numbers," said Dr Himanta Biswa Sarma, health minister for the northeastern state of Assam.

Even if some say that GoI figures are not accurate the fact that with a few exceptions {Mumbai & to a lesser extent Delhi} we are not witnessing CV19 patients jamming up the hospitals {including free Govt hospitals} seems to indicate that indeed we might be witnessing a much lower real death rate than Western countries. I am associated with three hospitals in three States. In the first, a green State, the State Govt has told us to get back to medical operations as normal and that they {the Govt} wont need us to offer a ward for CV19 any longer. In the 2nd State where the State is largely Green but the district is not they have said continue to keep one secluded ward on hold for CV19; rest is back to your usual routine. Only the third which is in a red State is still wanted for CV19. Just sharing facts as I know them in my little cocoon. Each reader can draw his/her own conclusions.

[Turbanator]

This looks promising

https://www.cnbctv18.com/healthcare/...la-5769851.htm

[Chetan_Rao]

Originally Posted by Turbanator

This looks promising

https://www.cnbctv18.com/healthcare/...la-5769851.htm

Regulatory requirements are one aspect, can human trials be expedited safely?

[tsk1979]

Originally Posted by V.Narayan

India's lower death rates seems to defy coronavirus trend

https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/newsi...cid=spartanntp

Excerpts:



Even if some say that GoI figures are not accurate the fact that with a few exceptions {Mumbai & to a lesser extent Delhi} we are not witnessing CV19 patients jamming up the hospitals {including free Govt hospitals} seems to indicate that indeed we might be witnessing a much lower real death rate than Western countries. I am associated with three hospitals in three States. In the first, a green State, the State Govt has told us to get back to medical operations as normal and that they {the Govt} wont need us to offer a ward for CV19 any longer. In the 2nd State where the State is largely Green but the district is not they have said continue to keep one secluded ward on hold for CV19; rest is back to your usual routine. Only the third which is in a red State is still wanted for CV19. Just sharing facts as I know them in my little cocoon. Each reader can draw his/her own conclusions.

I am actually surprised that people are acting surprised. Though it is a fact that this virus does kill older people more aggressively, over a large sample it is clear that young people are relatively less affected. If we look at the western world, esp Italy, the median age is 47. India median age is 26.

So we may have a lot of coronavirus cases all over the country, but for them it will just be like a regular flu illness. Cough, cold maybe fever and then recovery.

However countries with median age of 47, this puts a large percentage of their population at risk.

[akp]

Originally Posted by rdst_1

Another update from the WHO epidemiologist who is now working for ICMR

Is this guy on techenclave genuine? For someone who claims he is working for WHO in Spain, where the covid situation is still very grim, giving expert advice to ICMR about controlling the spread in a locality in West Bengal, does it not create a bit of doubt that he still seems to have all the time in the world to write about everything in so much detail? And someone in that position writing about the money he is being offered in a public forum - somehow it sounds highly unprofessional to me, almost unreal. Of course I have no knowledge about this guy other than a few posts on that particular thread. He definitely sounds like he knows quite a bit about the epidemic. But the question is, is he really who he says he is? I did an image search on google on the image he posted on April 4, and got the following report dated March 17 where the image appears:

https://www.commondreams.org/views/2...c-doctors-view

Another image that he said is his and his wife's along with a patient is on this page:

https://refresher.cz/82582-V-Cesku-z...na-koronavirus

It is a bit of surprise that his personal images are available on some random web pages.

[rdst_1]

Originally Posted by akp

Is this guy on techenclave genuine? For someone who claims he is working for WHO in Spain, where the covid situation is still very grim, giving expert advice to ICMR about controlling the spread in a locality in West Bengal, does it not create a bit of doubt that he still seems to have all the time in the world to write about everything in so much detail?

He is back home now for a few days. When he was in Spain, he developed insomnia. He is an open book kinda guy. Doesn't hide personal things, like him and his wife being an ex-junkie. He is also not a citizen anymore, so I can't fathom what hidden agenda he might have.
Still, you are right. It's a choice whether to trust him or not. BTW, we knew he worked for WHO, even before Coronavirus happened from his other threads.

[joslicx]

Originally Posted by tsk1979

I am actually surprised that people are acting surprised. Though it is a fact that this virus does kill older people more aggressively, over a large sample it is clear that young people are relatively less affected. If we look at the western world, esp Italy, the median age is 47. India median age is 26.

So we may have a lot of coronavirus cases all over the country, but for them it will just be like a regular flu illness. Cough, cold maybe fever and then recovery.

However countries with median age of 47, this puts a large percentage of their population at risk.

India's median age may be 26, but if you look at actual numbers, there would still be millions and millions of old people, probably much much more than entire population of Italy! But still we are not hearing about huge number of deaths in the older population itself as well. So that's the conundrum.

For some reason, so far, India has averted this tragedy. As this article says, deaths are something you cannot hide easily. If thousands of people were dying every day then it would be known. All deaths and births are now registered ( needed for inheritance, insurance claims etc).

[Gansan]

Polimer News, a Tamil news channel, reported that the association of used car dealers expects a huge surge in the sale of used cars after the lock down ends and traffic resumes. They expect a lot of people will want to avoid public transport and will flock to used car dealers, so they are stocking up on such cars.