What's the layman answer to the coronavirus problem ? There is no one single answer, simply because, this is a multidimensional problem.
(1) statistics/math side - is the data collection, across the globe, regarding the knowledge about the current state of the spread of the virus, reliable ? Doesn't it involve, some doctor making a subjective decision after examining a person who is alive/dead - "should this guy's sample be sent for testing or not" ? what about the people who get mild infection, recover on their own by staying at home - who has tested them ? no-one. What about the number of these people ? what is the X% of such people in the total infections, out of which (100-X)% is recorded as stats ? how high or low is X w.r.t 50% ? is it something like 90% or 40% ? is there any way to know ? The reason these questions are pertinent, is because; decisions are being made based on current statistics. Is it ok to continue making decisions (maybe yes), without bothering to find out this 'hidden' X% set of people who do not appear in stats ? How to prove it, in case its ok ?
(2) virology side - the true nature of the virus, its current mutation state, its rate of mutation - whether its slow or fast or whether the rate of change is varying, the spreading part - whether its only exhalation moisture droplets or other means like urine/stools from infected people that are released into the earth, whether sewage getting dumped into river systems will carry it from one geography to another, etc etc. On top of all this, what virus strains are spreading in what geogrphies
(3) medical side - whether immune system variance across the globe, based on racial profile, weather conditions etc is equipped enough to fight the same either with a future vaccine or with antibody laden plasma from recovered patients. Whether one type of antibodies from one type of patients will be needed or generally any recevored person can contribute his plasma, whether a single formula version of a future vaccine will work for every person on earth, without side effects to anyone. Are people who are marked as recovered from the virus, truly healthy without any permanent damage to their health, after getting the virus ?
(4) economic side - who can exactly tell what is the state of businesses across the globe ? who is going to sweep their bad decisions over months, years, decades, before corona, under the lockdown carpet ? People who think lockdown was responsible for destroying businesses and losing jobs and livelihood, are they even right ? because if people were dying left right and center, like dominos, in case there was no lockdown at all, anywhere in the globe, would the same businesses have continued in the same vein ? Afterall, it is people who make the economy, not the other way around - something called economy exists, because people exist. Is the above even a right perspective to justify various degrees of lockdowns across the world ?
Over and above - 1,2,3,4 requires multiple expertise in mathematics, virology, epidemiology, human health, economics. There is no single expert who understands all aspects together with equal accuracy, and can see the actual big-picture-truth. There are teams of experts separately advising world leaders on strategic decisions. Are world leaders educated/sharp/tactically-mature enough to weigh the risk-vs-reward options carefully, before making decisions ? Let's hope they are.
If we start peeling the onion, there is no end, questions tumble out, like an unstoppable torrent. The real problem is - we have not even managed to clearly define the problem at hand. Mainly because the virus is such a young one, and also because economics is something no one in the world actually understands clearly (people only pretend to understand it). Hence, the solutions are going to be arbitrary, based on subjective judgement, rather than objective analysis. There is no "correct" strategy, anywhere in the world, currently arrived at, by any country. All are doing trial and error. Some 'appear' to succeed, some 'appear' to fail.
The only thing, we, as ordinary citizens can do is :
(1) pray that someone has a lightbulb moment and nails the problem
(2) the virus (and its multiple strains) slowly adapt to less lethal versions, and becomes like common flu
(3) we find out an anti-viral or vaccine quickly.
(4) god help us, until then, stay hopeful. There is no life without hope. Without hope, humanity wouldn't have survived for many million years. we are all looking for an accurate solution for a yet-to-be-accurately-defined problem
Last edited by venkyhere : 24th April 2020 at 10:55.
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