[JayKis]

Having seen a few articles of journos peddling their covid statements to suit certain narratives thought it might be prudent to get into the bottom of this covid numbers.

This is a comparison of how the states are faring in the Covid episode. All data as available on https://www.covid19india.org/ as of Apr 21, 12:42 PM.

All the states have the following Covid information available.

1. Total Confirmed Cases
2. Total Active Cases
3. Total Recovered Cases
4. Total Deceased Cases
5. Total number of tests done

Since it is prudent to consider the population of the states when comparing them, we arrive at a further two parameters which shows the ability of the state to control the spread of the virus.

1. Infected Per Million Population – This is indicative of how the state has been able to prevent its population from being infected. The lower the better.
2. Deceased Per Million Population – This is indicative of how the state has been able to prevent its population from being infected. The lower the better.The lower the better.

The next two parameters are on testing infrastructure in the states.

1. Total Tests -Absolute number of tests done in the state.
2. Tests per Million - Tests done per Million population.

Further we have two parameters which is indicative of the robustness of the health care in the state.

1. Deceased to Infected Ratio – A measure of the how many people died to the number of people infected. The lower the better.
2. Deceased to Recovered Ratio- A measure of the how many people died to the number of people recovered. The lower the better.

The top 5 in all parameters are marked green and bottom 5 in red. (In some cases where there are no deceased, the next 5 is also marked in green)

Infected and Deceased.

Note: Sorted on Deceased per Million and then on Infections per Million.

Testing Facilities

Note: Sorted on Testing done per Million

Deceased and Recovered

Note: Sorted on Deceased to Recovered and then on Deceased to Infected.


These are what the data has to says. Welcome the interpretations out of it.

Sikkim, Tripura, Arunachal, Manipur, Mizoram, Chattisgarh, Uttarakhand and Goa are the places to be in not to get Covid.

Delhi, Rajasthan, J&K, Tamil nadu, Maharshtra to find if you have Covid

Kerala, Haryana, TamilNadu, Odisha & Bihar to get cured off Covid!!

[V.Narayan]

Originally Posted by JayKis

These are what the data has to says. Welcome the interpretations out of it.

Sikkim, Tripura, Arunachal, Manipur, Mizoram, Chattisgarh, Uttarakhand and Goa are the places to be in not to get Covid.

Delhi, Rajasthan, J&K, Tamil Nadu, Maharshtra to find if you have Covid

Kerala, Haryana, TamilNadu, Odisha & Bihar to get cured off Covid!!

......And be in West Bengal if you don't want to know anything about Covid-19.
Great work
UP, JH & Bihar I would be concerned about for their high populations & their low testing. Those above Haryana in the testing per million chart I'd say are at least trying to be serious. The best of course are KL, MH, DL, RJ and TN.

[volkman10]

Originally Posted by JayKis

Kerala, Haryana, TamilNadu, Odisha & Bihar to get cured off Covid!!

The curious case of Covid-19- No time for relaxation even if the doubling rate is impressive as being the lowest.


Kerala worries with 19 new cases after a week's dip in infections !n another mystery, one person in its Pathanamthitta district continues to be positive for the last 36 days.

There is an opinion that after the virus enters your body, in one stage it will continue to be in the body but will stop spreading to others

Kerala has a total of 426 recorded cases, comprising 117 active patients, 307 recovered cases and two deaths so far

Almost half of the total active cases are now in Kannur district, including ten of the fresh cases of the day

Kerala on Tuesday confirmed a worrying 19 new infections, coming after a week's dip in new infections and partially easing lockdown relaxations in its parts since Monday. Puzzlingly, 12 foreign returnees tested positive on the day, almost a month after the sealing of airports, raising doubts about the practicality of the state's incubation period of 28 days. The rest three fresh patients have a travel history to Tamil Nadu.
In another mystery, one person in its Pathanamthitta district continues to be positive for the last 36 days.

Link

[Miyata]

Originally Posted by JayKis

a comparison of how the states are faring in the Covid episode.

Great stuff. Thanks for sharing.

The 7-sister states seem to be among the best of health - covid wise. Wonder if that has anything to do with generally cleaner air they breathe and/or the incredible amount of walking (sometime very hilly terrains) they do that exercises their lungs very well?

On my trip to Sikkim, I was staying in one the hotels that had a gymnasium. I was planning to use the gym but decided to first walk out and around a bit, have some tea and later on go to the gym.

The walk turned out to be quite strenuous with all the ups and downs in that north Sikkim area! Abandoned the thought of gym post my return from that walk!

Did not see a single obese person there. All around folks had pretty good physique and overall health.

[rdst_1]

A very nice video which explains why the use of the simpler ventilator devices that many companies proposed to make will actually cause more harm to the patients.

https://youtu.be/7vLPefHYWpY

A new tracker, which actually tracks the various treatments and vaccines and the various stages they are in -
https://milkeninstitute.org/covid-19-tracker

[venkyhere]

Originally Posted by Miyata

The 7-sister states seem to be among the best of health - covid wise. Wonder if that has anything to do with generally cleaner air they breathe and/or the incredible amount of walking (sometime very hilly terrains) they do that exercises their lungs very well?

or it could be a simple case of low exposure to the rest of india, due to low amount of influx/outflow of people at the borders/airports.

[govigov]

What puzzles me are the numbers from TN. They had a huge rise in numbers at the start and were the no2 or no3 in terms of confirmed cases, soon, they started showing about 70to100 cured cases in a day. I don't think that is possible. TN may be using a diff criteria to confirm if a case is cured. Here in KL, I think it is, 3 consecutive tests have to be negative for the patient to be considered cured. What is the TN criteria for setting a patient as being cured?

[Miyata]

With so much hoopla surrounding hydroxychloroquine, it appears to be emerging that there's "More deaths, no benefit from malaria drug"

The nationwide study was not a rigorous experiment. But with 368 patients, it's the largest look so far of hydroxychloroquine with or without the antibiotic azithromycin for COVID-19

study was posted on an online site for researchers and has been submitted to the New England Journal of Medicine, but has not been reviewed by other scientists

[naveenroy]

Originally Posted by Miyata

With so much hoopla surrounding hydroxychloroquine, it appears to be emerging that there's "More deaths, no benefit from malaria drug"

But hey, the best doctor on the planet has prescribed it for the masses - it cannot be wrong. /s

OTOH, some states including mine are opening up in the US. There has not been enough tests, they have nothing to say that the numbers have gone down. But hey, civil liberties and all that jazz.

[Miyata]

Originally Posted by naveenroy

But hey, the best doctor on the planet has prescribed it for the masses - it cannot be wrong.

Yea, I actually find this prevalence for blind acceptance just because an "expert has said so" to be lot more prevalent in India than in the US.

Would possibly help us to remind ourselves of an apt message from Einstein - "Unthinking respect for authority is the greatest enemy of truth."

On Georgia, was speaking to a friend there and apparently Brian Kemp's intel seems to be at odds with what's being presented by Johns Hopkins and other tracking portals/sites.

However, he also appears to be doing things quite sensibly -

The mandatory conditions at the workplaces include social distancing, enhanced cleanings, screening workers for fevers and respiratory illness, wearing gloves and a mask if appropriate, moving workplaces 6 feet apart, staggering work shifts and, if possible, teleworking.

This could provide a template for others to return to work while maintaining safe practices at work place. Hope things go good.

[Thad E Ginathom]

Originally Posted by Miyata

Yea, I actually find this prevalence for blind acceptance just because an "expert has said so" to be lot more prevalent in India than in the US.

In this instance, I think it is grasping at straws. We are all desperate for good news. Even if, in the back of our minds, we know something may not be true, we so much want it to be.

[vibbs]

Originally Posted by volkman10

The curious case of Covid-19- No time for relaxation even if the doubling rate is impressive as being the lowest.


Kerala worries with 19 new cases after a week's dip in infections !n another mystery, one person in its Pathanamthitta district continues to be positive for the last 36 days.

States and countries should be very cautious about opening up following a dip in infections. If they do, then better be prepared for another surge.

Here in Singapore, they have extended the Circuit breaker by 4 weeks and have also implemented stricter norms. In the busiest wet markets and super markets, they will have a sort of odd even rule implemented depending on the ID numbers.

Wearing mask is mandatory while you are out. While you are still allowed to leave your house for exercise, it is recommended to do so in your immediate neighborhood and not travel to other localities for this.



The reason for the latest restrictions are a massive surge in the past few days. Singapore was lauded initially for their response, but this shows even the best planned responses can get road blocks. The Worker dormitories have been infected and I estimate the confirmed cases to keep rising for next few days.

The case fatality rate is very low though. Only 11 deaths for more than 9000 cases. The cases are mostly mild or asymptomatic. They have been proactively testing all people in the Dorms to actively isolate the positive cases.

[vb-saan]

Originally Posted by vibbs

States and countries should be very cautious about opening up following a dip in infections. If they do, then better be prepared for another surge.

This was also one of the key point mentioned in the daily 6:00pm COVID-19 update by Kerala CM.

And by the end of this lock-down, I feel (for many) caution will become a second nature.

[rdst_1]

Originally Posted by vb-san

This was also one of the key point mentioned in the daily 6:00pm COVID-19 update by Kerala CM.

And by the end of this lock-down, I feel (for many) caution will become a second nature.

I so wish this was true. I guess it might be in cities where people are educated and aware. However, in my village, I saw today that no norms are being followed. There was no social distancing and people weren't wearing masks either. This despite the local sarpanch distributing free masks and small hand sanitizer bottles to all households. And I've heard of similar issues in cities as well.
Very slowly, my opinion is changing, that our people's general indiscipline will render this lockdown useless and futile and all this economic distress will be for nothing.

[srishiva]

The fatality rate, recovery rate and general infection rate that some newspapers report makes me forget maths. There is so much confusion about how to do it.

Also, for the tests it includes multiple tests per person. After a week or 2 weeks of confirmation, I think they repeat the tests multiple times. So the number of people tested should be even lower ?