[Nav-i-gator]

So the debate still going on...

1. DeMo failed to wipe out black money: Maybe, yes. But it did partly succeed in curbing it's generation. Remember times, when Diesel price rising from Rs 48 a Litre to Rs 52 a Litre would send the retail inflation through roof? Everyone from Kirana shop owner to coconut water seller used to raise rates, citing hike in Diesel prices? It's not seen now. Why? Possibly due to decrease in profiteering/black-marketeering/hoarding by traders for the fear of " Paisa Chhupaenge kahan ?" (where would we hide the cash?).

2. Only Poor suffered due to DeMo: Alas, poverty romanticism! Poor, who stand in line to get (adulterated) Kerosene, subsidised foodgrains, and what not. And still usually don't get it fully. Now subsidies going directly to their bank accounts. Many poor infact made money, standing in queue to deposit cash of rich people for money in return.

Only the poorest of the poor, the subsistence poor (who earn daily and spend on food daily) suffered to an extent. That is true. But then (not mocking their poverty), they were not living in luxury anyways.

3. Rich/influential/politicians were not affected, only common people suffered: True, very true. The commoners, we always suffer, isn't it? for the failure of Govts, for the largess of rich, under the burden of serving the rich (to earn a living) and serving the poor (paying household helps to avoid their suffering). All this for what? Cash is back in action, police/bureaucrats are again into taking bribes, what changed?

this is perhaps the point of debate. There is no direct/perceptible/on-ground change brought by Demo (there are many indirect/off-shoot benefits, if one is willing to look objectively). It's up to us - to blame the Govt for failure of this experiment (which lasted "just" 2 months, against what has been going on for the last 70 odd years) to curb black money, and vote them out to bring back those who (at best) did nothing. Or reward a Govt who tried, haphazardly, but well-intentionally, to actually go out and do something (and in the process, went against their core voter base - of businessmen, traders, educated middle class/urban Indians).

There are plenty of points for or against DeMo, none is conclusively convincing to me. However, I would like to be on the side of Govt who tried, after winning the elections with a clear majority, instead of those for whom winning the election used to be the deal (who, after winning, will Rule, basking in glory thinking that running the Govt is just an unimportant side job to being a king).

End of Rant...

[MBstoTBs]

Originally Posted by V.Narayan

When we hold a point of view rather passionately every piece of information or literature seems to be supporting our cause whatever it might be. I am not talking here about DeMo either for or against - my views are already stated in earlier posts. Just enquiring why an article has been put here positioned as a new insight when it is only a bit of literature.
DeMo was a mis-guided though sincere initiative of NaMo implemented without the support of his bureaucracy or ministers most of whom stood to suffer from it!
This thread, two years out has morphed into a beat the current Govt up and vent against the current PM rather than a thread on DeMo. Maybe a new thread is needed for that with the correct title. Don't mistake my political leanings just because I don't vent against the current PM and am willing to give him time. In my time I have voted 8 or 9 times in Lok Sabha elections starting 1984 and voted approximately equally for both the sides. I would give NaMo time to get stuff done. Being PM of India, a functioning anarchy, is most likely the toughest job in the world.

Sir, DeMo happened 2 years ago, what remains is what I shared. Your opening line is the answer to your question. You opine that
1. People are using DeMo to beat up a good honest PM
2. India is the toughest nation to govern so it's fine.
3. Because you're a experienced voter, a PM who decides autocratically, without preparation, and doesnt care if it causes problems to citizens should not only not be questioned, but also get a longer tenure!!

Basic principles of democracy are liberty, justice and equality. When a leader shows amply by his actions he doesnt hold these values, democracy should not be used as shield. World over, democracy is touted because it produces good leaders, not bad ones. Why is India an anarchy? Because we dont understand or practice democracy, just elections.

Please note this wasnt the first DeMo - it has been done thrice in Indian history - 1946, 1978 and 2016. The claims were the same - anti-black money (read anti-rich), and each one failed. The last one spectacularly, because it was done that way.

Is a politician flogging citizens and businesses for his political war games kosher in your eyes? Is it within your definition of good governance and democracy, so people should just grin and bear it?

Pardon me for the direct comments, but if we think national progress will come from a lot of banning and beatings, let's dispense with democracy etc and request Britain/US/China to re-colonize us.

[Thad E Ginathom]

Originally Posted by ksameer1234

... While the rules may sound funny to few, in absence of such rules, what stops someone from turning up with half portion of the note to claim full value refund? ...

Good point! I hadn't thought of it like that. Claiming full value from both ends of the same note!

[earthian]

Originally Posted by MBstoTBs

Is a politician flogging citizens and businesses for his political war games kosher in your eyes?

That is the point. You have thrown the dart and drawn the bull's eye around it. That DeMo was not (only) for political gains, but predominantly for other than political benefits is what the debate is.

You are basing your argument on a foregone (by you) conclusion.

[V.Narayan]

Originally Posted by Nav-i-gator

So the debate still going on...
this is perhaps the point of debate. There is no direct/perceptible/on-ground change brought by Demo (there are many indirect/off-shoot benefits, if one is willing to look objectively). It's up to us - to blame the Govt for failure of this experiment (which lasted "just" 2 months, against what has been going on for the last 70 odd years) to curb black money, and vote them out to bring back those who (at best) did nothing. Or reward a Govt who tried, haphazardly, but well-intentionally, to actually go out and do something (and in the process, went against their core voter base - of businessmen, traders, educated middle class/urban Indians).

There are plenty of points for or against DeMo, none is conclusively convincing to me. However, I would like to be on the side of Govt who tried, after winning the elections with a clear majority, instead of those for whom winning the election used to be the deal (who, after winning, will Rule, basking in glory thinking that running the Govt is just an unimportant side job to being a king).

Thank you mate.

Originally Posted by earthian

That is the point. You have thrown the dart and drawn the bull's eye around it. That DeMo was not (only) for political gains, but predominantly for other than political benefits is what the debate is.You are basing your argument on a foregone (by you) conclusion.

Thank you earthian for bringing in a much needed dose of moderation.

No PM of a country as large and complex as India deserves to be measured on one and only one programme. That's like determining you life on the size of your shoe and nothing else. Rajiv Gandhi, Indira Gandhi, PVN, ABV all had their great moments and a few slips. So with NaMo. Hell even Chandrasekhar Azad did a little bit of good. The only PM's who were complete write offs were (in my opinion) Charan Singh and Devegowda. As I have said earlier those who feel the need to express strong opinions against the PM create a thread for yourselves to do so. Why lurk here under the cover of DeMo.

[MBstoTBs]

Originally Posted by earthian

That is the point. You have thrown the dart and drawn the bull's eye around it. That DeMo was not (only) for political gains, but predominantly for other than political benefits is what the debate is.

You are basing your argument on a foregone (by you) conclusion.

A classic circular reasoning. Here's what you did - since you BELIEVE that DeMo was virtuous, anyone disagreeing must be upto no good.

We can have different interpretations of facts, but beliefs being driven by your morality, faith, loyalty etc, in ABSENCE of facts, nothing I can say will make you accept it.

Facts are true, real and verifiable e.g. DeMo happened in 2016. Do you know any FACT that show "DeMo was for predominantly other than political benefits"? Govt has not released any data to prove this. IF so please share, and I will rethink my opinion. If not, your allegation is merely to defend your beliefs.

And please dont bring up BELIEFS in terror, corruption, black money etc being gone. If a DeMo was able to do this, all countries would abolish their currencies and not keep seeking other countries or UN help to handle terror, corruption and fraud etc. Ridiculous, I hope you and Mr Narayanan can see that.

[mayankk]

Originally Posted by V.Narayan

As I have said earlier those who feel the need to express strong opinions against the PM create a thread for yourselves to do so. Why lurk here under the cover of DeMo.

Nope.
Why?
It was a " masterstroke " by the master who tends to hold a tight rein on every policy and decision. Demo is Modi and vice versa. If every good/renamed policy expects a bowed down wah wah, the brickbats are his to bear as well.
The strong opinions expressed against are no worse than those which are for the master. If one needs to be shut down, as the trend is, then so should the other.

[Chetan_Rao]

I've been a silent spectator for a while, as this thread took a very predictable turn.

I'm a data person, work with data for a living, so my feelings on the whole exercise can be summed up by my forum signature: 'Quod gratis asseritur, gratis negatur' (What's freely asserted is freely dismissed).

It's impossible to prove a negative, and the burden of evidence always lies with the claimant.

Nobody asked for demonetisation, so it follows that the burden of proving it worked and/or met its stated objectives falls to the implementers, who so far have failed to supply any conclusive evidence to support their assertions. Hard, verifiable data, not move-goalposts-faster-than-you-can-change-underwear rhetoric.

[pramodkumar]

Originally Posted by msdivy

CDM or Cash Deposit Machines does not accept dirty, damaged or mutilated notes. Exchanging at RBI branches is the better bet.

That I was not aware of, but in hindsight people will come up with jhol like they did when DeMo happened.

Pramod

[earthian]

Originally Posted by MBstoTBs

A classic circular reasoning. Here's what you did - since you BELIEVE that DeMo was virtuous, anyone disagreeing must be upto no good.

I do not believe that you are up to no good. I hope not.
Seriously, what post(s) made you come up with that conclusion?

We can have different interpretations of facts, but beliefs being driven by your morality, faith, loyalty etc, in ABSENCE of facts, nothing I can say will make you accept it.

Precisely my point. Thank you for putting it so eloquently.

The debate is:

"Whether DeMo was purely for political gains (UP elections) ; or was it for other reasons, with political benefits being the side benefit."

Nobody says that the intended (non political) gains have been realised as touted. No. So, in that sense, DeMo was a failure. Yes. Hopefully, over the next few years, some tightening up due to the electronic trail may take place. We shall have to watch and wait.

But the UP elections were won. In my opinion, the side benefits were realised. And other regional political parties had to scramble too. I liked that.

But to conclude that since political gains were realised, that was the main aim from the beginning, is extrapolating beyond reason and that is why i mentioned that :

"You throw the dart and draw a bull's eye where it strikes"

As V.Narayan said, DeMo was a failure. So bash the PM and the Government.

[Nav-i-gator]

1. DeMo is a failure - It did not eliminate corruption, black money, terror: True
2. Swachh Bharat mission is a failure - It did not make our towns, streets, cities and rivers clean: Ture


Whom are we fooling? Ourselves! This Govt is a failure. It did DeMo to make poor and common people suffer, so that they can win UP elections and gain political mileage. Because, you know, the more people suffer, more they will vote for them.

And how foolish to "try" pulling out our hard earned black money? we will never give up our birth right to amass wealth by robbing poor, but you should not do anything that make us suffer, because if we suffer, poor will suffer. And this suffering is your responsibility. At most, we will leave the country, be a fugitive. Because, doesn't matter during which Govt we amassed black money, if we run away during your regime, it's your failure.

We will keep on being corrupt, keep on littering and making this country dirty, by deeds, by means, and literally too. It is entirely the failure of this Govt, why? because this Govt tried, and trying to force us to change for good is autocratic and dictatorial.

This Govt need to learn from previous Govts about Democracy. Democracy is letting the people do what they want to do, the way they want to do. Democracy is helping rich get richer with dubious means, policies and sharing the bounty with ruling class. Because when rich get richer, they spend more on blue collar jobs that poor do for them, which makes them able to live on being poor, creates jobs for unskilled poor so that they are content being unskilled and dependent on rich and political class for subsidies, charity and loan waivers.

This Govt is a big failure.

[MBstoTBs]

Originally Posted by Chetan_Rao

I've been a silent spectator for a while, as this thread took a very predictable turn.
It's impossible to prove a negative, and the burden of evidence always lies with the claimant.

True. What I'm seeing is the "new" brand of politicians - Modi, Kejriwal - have revived the age old technique first used by socialists in Italy, Russia and Germany of attacking the questioner's religion, nationalism, integrity etc to avoid asnwers.

Multiple logical fallacies e.g. "ad hominem", "No True Scotsman" abound, but enough unthinking supporters and you can get away with it. Very smart politics, but as harmful for nation as the inventors proved to be. e.g. the DeMo - the claims at various times were:
1. No more corruption
2. Finishing off black money
3. No terrorism and separatism
4. Cheap abundant loans
5. Low taxes
6. Accelerating economic growth

Because of the speed and audacity of the action, not only did noone ask how and why will all this happen, there has been no data that supports any of these claims are met, whatever is known - interest rates, GDP, taxes -have only moved exactly opposite to the claims, as said by economists. Yet, idealists and wishful thinkers, are full of happiness, and indian politics has always been about keeping your supporters happy, not national good.

[mayankk]

Originally Posted by Nav-i-gator

1. DeMo -----SNIP--------ure.

All those statements are pure rhetoric. Providing an emotion based response to justify the idiocy of Demo only points to the failure. Has even one of the MANY stated objectives been met? Not a mann ki baat statement, but a quantified response?
Its all well and good to point at the previous governments. After all, there has been no development in the country in the past 70 years. Apart from pointing out the latest model of bullock cart I have just bought, with an eye on my next mission being finding a paved road, the fact remains that the government has been in power for close to a full term now. And in that time they have blamed everyone from the mughals and the British, to nehru and the gandhis.

"At least they are doing something". Seriously?
Doing ANYTHING for the sake of doing something? Thats just incomprehensible.

Originally Posted by Nav-i-gator

This Govt is a big failure.

Yes, it is. That it failed on its manifesto is self-evident. Now it is failing in even being capable of governing thought.

[Nav-i-gator]

Originally Posted by mayankk

"At least they are doing something". Seriously?
Doing ANYTHING for the sake of doing something? Thats just incomprehensible.

Yes, it is. That it failed on its manifesto is self-evident. Now it is failing in even being capable of governing thought.

That's what I said, DeMo is a failure, this Govt is a failure. Because doing NOTHING, for the sake of showing middle finger to voters is entirely comprehensible, and the status quo of our Democracy. And let's be honest, had DeMo been a success, we would be living in a far better India, aren't we? It's more of our failure, for it proved, no one can make an Indian honest and an India corruption free.

I am no fan of this Govt, I didn't vote for them.Infact I am apolitical. Probably that's why I try to see beyond what is said, what is promised, and what is done.

When was the last time you saw Rupee vs dollar at such lows and still current account deficit is under control? When was the last time you saw diesel prices at an all time high but retail inflation going even lesser? When was the last time you saw high fuel prices, weak Rupee AND a govt who have failed on policy front but still retail investors pumping in record money into share markets, taking it to new highs? When was the last time you saw such a big jump in no. of people filing their IT returns?

None of these (and a lot more) unusual signs are intended benefits of DeMo, but in one way or other signs of structural changes - for good or bad - I leave to you. You are more learned than me. You have strong opinions about Govt, I am yet to make up my mind on whom to vote in next elections.

There are many reasons to vote this Govt out in the next elections, DeMo is not the one for me though. And larger question is - If not them, then who else? It's more like choosing a yet to be proven surgery which MIGHT save you over proven pain killers (to die slowly and painlessly), when you are going to die anyway.

[sgiitk]

Basically it seems that many people will be happy to get a subsidy even though it drives up inflation down the line.

Now that we are running a Monetary economy the high inflation option of Keynesian economics is no more. The worst will be so keep doing flip-flops. In the long term this will pay. The best examples of Monetary economy are Germany and also UK (Maggie T days).