[sgiitk]

Now it is sub 62 but I expect a correction soon. Today I did see projections of sub 60 levels. Let us see.

[sdp1975]

One of reasons of the falling rupee was the Food Security Bill that was perceived to give rise to a higher fiscal deficit and lowered investor confidence in India.

Just read this report on TOI http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/c...w/22833946.cms .It's not hard to imagine what will happen to the FSB as well.

[drmohitg]

The govt really needs to do something very fast to ensure a stabler rupee. I don't mind the level at all. 60 or 65 to the dollar. But whats important is to ensure that there are no such huge fluctuations every day and week. Such huge fluctuations are really messing up with most businesses as you have no idea where the pricing is headed. One day it going northwards and the next day in totally the opposite direction, which is causing a lot of heart burn and some serious depression. Doing business in such an atmosphere is really not feasible any more.

[Saanil]

Originally Posted by drmohitg

The govt really needs to do something very fast to ensure a stabler rupee. I don't mind the level at all. 60 or 65 to the dollar. But whats important is to ensure that there are no such huge fluctuations every day and week. One day it going northwards and the next day in totally the opposite direction, which is causing a lot of heart burn and some serious depression.

I understand your frustration but in a free floating currency this is bound to happen. Our currency is not pegged so it will fluctuate as per the business conditions. I completely understand that there is zilch clarity on the direction of the rupee but during volatile circumstances as those today, this will happen and I doubt anything can be done here.

[carboy]

Originally Posted by drmohitg

The govt really needs to do something very fast to ensure a stabler rupee. I don't mind the level at all. 60 or 65 to the dollar. But whats important is to ensure that there are no such huge fluctuations every day and week. Such huge fluctuations are really messing up with most businesses as you have no idea where the pricing is headed. One day it going northwards and the next day in totally the opposite direction, which is causing a lot of heart burn and some serious depression. Doing business in such an atmosphere is really not feasible any more.

The Indian Rupee is a partly convertible currency. That means it's exchange rate is largely decided by the market though RBI influences by buying/selling and becoming part of the market. Here is one way for a business to hedge and protect itself from fluctuations in currency - http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/...cle5142289.ece

[aaggoswami]

The place where I am currently employed exports a lot of products. The current scenario has hit us, not that we are not getting orders, but somehow, the factor of trust in consistency is messing up. As the LME rates fluctuate, so does our price as we believe in supplying fresh product from recent RM acquired. This plays a havoc with our pricing and overall hits us in one way or the other.

Seriously, this much fluctuation is not acceptable and with inflation sky high, the life is getting tough. Rs. 100/- buys less than half food it used to do just a couple of years ago. This is taking a toll on SME atleast. The wavy ride of Price indices are not helping SME in any way.

[gsurya]

From INR/USD level at 58.73 on May 16th 2014, we are already back down to 63.61 today & market predictions are that we will be at 65 by May/June.

If that happens, will be a massively steep fall of 15% in JUST an year!

[StarrySky]

Originally Posted by gsurya

From INR/USD level at 58.73 on May 16th 2014, we are already back down to 63.61 today & market predictions are that we will be at 65 by May/June.

If that happens, will be a massively steep fall of 15% in JUST an year!

Is this just a case of the dollar becoming stronger rather than rupee becoming weaker? For eg: the Euro has come down from 80+ levels to just under 70 against the rupee (about 15% rise for the rupee) in the same period. I certainly feel the "pain" while sending money home I guess it's the same case with Pound vs Rupee as well.

[phamilyman]

Originally Posted by gsurya

From INR/USD level at 58.73 on May 16th 2014, we are already back down to 63.61 today & market predictions are that we will be at 65 by May/June.

If that happens, will be a massively steep fall of 15% in JUST an year!

You've chosen a very dicey frame of reference.

From the election date, of course its down so much but thats just the euphoria working off and expectations coming down. (just as I believe that the massive INR depreciation from ~45 levels was not about fundamentals shifting overnight but about realignment of expectations)

We can choose any convenient frame of reference and conclude anything we want - however a more politically neutral perspective is that currency wise we're broadly where India was end 2013.

[arun_kun]

Why is rupee falling now? Will it continue to fall further in future? Since our economy started to recover, I thought the same will happen to rupee.

[gsurya]

Originally Posted by arun_kun

Why is rupee falling now? Will it continue to fall further in future? Since our economy started to recover, I thought the same will happen to rupee.

Markets everywhere are doing well, NOT economy. Thats the same story here. Its mainly due to lot of liquidity floating around but companies are still struggling since globally demand is bad.

[FrozeninTime]

In 7 years, since the last post, nothing has changed. The same lame excuses year after year.
Rupee is going to breach the crucial 80 mark in the coming week and I hope we don’t land in similar situation as Sri Lanka as we are cooking with all the same ingredients.

[Abhiram]

Originally Posted by FrozeninTime

In 7 years, since the last post, nothing has changed. The same lame excuses year after year.
Rupee is going to breach the crucial 80 mark in the coming week and I hope we don’t land in similar situation as Sri Lanka as we are cooking with all the same ingredients.

I don’t know where to start!

I’m not an economist. But I’ve tried to keep myself educated and I cant think of a single commonality between us and Sri Lanka. Sri Lanka burnt through their foreign reserves. We have a fairly healthy foreign reserve right now. Sri Lanka just borrowed and took bigger debts just to reservice their old debt. I think our debt is fairly manageable. They also artificially inflated their currency for a long time. RBI doesn’t do that here. So really don’t know what the common ingredients you talked about are.

Dollar is going up because their fed is increasing repo rates. This is being done so that they can take some newly printed money back and out of circulation. By doing this, they aim to control their inflation which is at 9% (Ours is at 6% now). This inturn leads to US citizens pulling their money out of foreign markets which strengthens the dollar. Dollar and euro is almost equal now i guess.

Things will stabilise and I’m not sure what factors here in our control you want improved.

I would be happy to learn if actual experts here think anything I stated is wrong and could correct me if so.

[Sebring]

Could the US be punishing us for being neutral on Russia?

Originally Posted by Abhiram

Dollar is going up because their fed is increasing repo rates.

[Abhiram]

Originally Posted by Sebring

Could the US be punishing us for being neutral on Russia?

It has nothing to do with us.
When COVID came around, US started printing a lot of dollars and started giving out stimulus money to its citizen like candy. This resulted in more money in people’s hands. This, along with supply chain constraints has now led to hyper inflation in US of 9%. One thing we need to understand is that our inflation on average over the last decade is around 6%. For them, it was generally 2%. So 9% has everyone worried. Government cant control supply so they are doing what they feel is their next best solution to control their inflation which is raise rates.

Every single currency is struggling right now against dollar and US is in stagflation right now which is one step removed from recession.

None of this has anything to do with India.

I am just an IT guy so please take everything i say with a pinch of salt. I can be wrong, but ive just provided my inputs based on what i know.