[lapis_lazuli]

Originally Posted by V.Narayan

My work is in rural healthcare.

As per your observations on ground, has the general awareness increased? Like not believing in snake oil, the faqeer or the baba for epilepsy cure, or a garland to cure jaundice or pox?

What sort of medicines do typical non governments provide? Branded or generic?

[Electromotive]

I do not understand where the optimism about India's future comes from. Because the India I know generally tops the charts in all the wrong categories, the recent accomplishments being the most populated, most polluted, most at-risk from climate change ... the list goes on.

We are currently witnessing India at its peak, it is all downhill from here and you shall witness the cracks before this decade is over.

I believe the best way to predict the future is to look to the past and India's past has never been glorious. We just like to delude ourselves into believing it to be so. There never was a 'sone ki chiriyah', it was always misery, tyranny and suffering.

The region we now call India has always been home to a collectivist, risk-abhorring culture that shuns change of any sort. Look at the history and notice the innovations, or lack there of. The absence of basic inventions like windmills, waterwheels or even the arch (till the mughal invasion) presents a picture most won't want to acknowledge. This culture suppresses individualism and kills any scope for innovation. And innovation is a requirement for creating wealth, prosperity and security. Which is why the only time we move forward as a people/society is when an external agent acts on us and forces its will. At one time it was the Mughals, then came the British (who actually created the foundation for the current India) and then came globalization. Guess which will be the next agent(s)?

India only projects the illusion of an economic powerhouse. There is not much value creation happening and what little of it is there, is fueled by mostly debt and exploitation (both human and environmental). We just do not produce much of anything anybody wants while we need things that others (China, USA, EU) produce. Until that is fixed not much will improve. And now it might be a little too late, at least for the majority of the India's barely-educated, barely-skilled masses. And how stable would a society be if the vast majority will soon face an even lower standard of living and no hope for improvement?

India is a parasite infested, hollowed-out tree. It appears healthy on the outside but is only a storm away from being broken into pieces. And that storm is on the horizon.

If I appear to be cryptic, it is deliberate, because rule-of-law and freedom-of-speech are things that only exists in textbooks.

[thanixravindran]

Originally Posted by carboy

I never said we are the same as 50 years. I never said we haven't improved. My point is that our time is not going to come in my lifetime.

Poverty is a very relative term and the definition keeps varying depending on the place and time. My belief is we are far better than earlier times be it to access to food, healthcare, shelter and a thriving economy with increasing domestic consumption.

And we may not achieve the 'prosperity' of the West ever at least not in our lifetime due to variety of reasons. Even if we achieve a middle income economy that is a fantastic result for us. Urban slums will continue to exist even then. But one thing that is certain is we need uniform development (currently it is haphazard) and a sustainable one that can withstand a economic shock.

[gauravdgr8]

Originally Posted by Electromotive

I do not understand where the optimism about India's future comes from. Because the India I know generally tops the charts in all the wrong categories, the recent accomplishments being the most populated, most polluted, most at-risk from climate change ... the list goes on.

Optimism comes from the fact that we are the global leaders in Digital economy and number of online transactions equalling that if US and China, but only if you want to see it. Climate change is a risk, not because of India, but because what developed countries have done in the past. Simply Google renewable energy generation in the past 10 years.

Originally Posted by Electromotive

We are currently witnessing India at its peak, it is all downhill from here and you shall witness the cracks before this decade is over.

Apart from English, please substantiate with data.

Originally Posted by Electromotive

I believe the best way to predict the future is to look to the past and India's past has never been glorious. We just like to delude ourselves into believing it to be so. There never was a 'sone ki chiriyah', it was always misery, tyranny and suffering.

You are reading at history left by the Britishers, need to go beyond that and see. Needs a lot of research by the right eye.

Originally Posted by Electromotive

The region we now call India has always been home to a collectivist, risk-abhorring culture that shuns change of any sort. Look at the history and notice the innovations, or lack there of. The absence of basic inventions like windmills, waterwheels or even the arch (till the mughal invasion) presents a picture most won't want to acknowledge. This culture suppresses individualism and kills any scope for innovation. And innovation is a requirement for creating wealth, prosperity and security. Which is why the only time we move forward as a people/society is when an external agent acts on us and forces its will. At one time it was the Mughals, then came the British (who actually created the foundation for the current India) and then came globalization. Guess which will be the next agent(s)?

Had that been the case, the Britishers, Portugese, French would not have setup colonies.

Originally Posted by Electromotive

India only projects the illusion of an economic powerhouse. There is not much value creation happening and what little of it is there, is fueled by mostly debt and exploitation (both human and environmental). We just do not produce much of anything anybody wants while we need things that others (China, USA, EU) produce. Until that is fixed not much will improve. And now it might be a little too late, at least for the majority of the India's barely-educated, barely-skilled masses. And how stable would a society be if the vast majority will soon face an even lower standard of living and no hope for improvement?

We produce enough to feed our own country. Self sustainable, creating a lot of cushion from the global downtrends. Lot of examples in the past 5 years, again visible to the right eye.

Originally Posted by Electromotive

India is a parasite infested, hollowed-out tree. It appears healthy on the outside but is only a storm away from being broken into pieces. And that storm is on the horizon.

God bless you for being so negative

Originally Posted by Electromotive

If I appear to be cryptic, it is deliberate, because rule-of-law and freedom-of-speech are things that only exists in textbooks

Not sure where you from, but try abusing a black in US or the migrants in Europe, and try to escape alive. It's the same everywhere. You must have heard, the grass is always greener on the other side.

[mygodbole]

Good grief, this conversation is veering off on a tangent.

Friends, we are here to understand economics. AFAIK, it is the difference between 'value' and market perception.

Tea is available for INR10, INR100 and INR1,000. I have been told that an aloo paratha goes for GBP5 in UK.

Economics is all about value. What tea do you want? How much are you willing to pay for a paratha?

You see value? Pay up. Don't see value? Walk away.

(Going off topic, but a friend was willing to travel from Auckland to Singapore just to taste the Alphonso mango (Hapus in Marathi). He put a value on his taste buds and was willing to put his money where his Hapus was)

MODS: Please clarify, are we discussing economics in general or the Indian economy specifically?

I learnt over the past 40years that if you want something, don't look at the price. If you are considering price, don't look at specifics. (Better said in Hindi: Cheez dekh rahe ho to paise mat dekho; paise dekh rahe ho to phir cheez mat dekho)

Price and value are in a tug of war. Price? Value? Balance?

You decide

[carboy]

Originally Posted by fhdowntheline

Please qualify what poverty means.

Poverty means not having to live slums

Originally Posted by fhdowntheline

There is filth, squalor in the slums. But there isnt much of malnutrition, hunger and infectious diseases.

You are joking, right?

As per NFHS-5, 35.5% of all children under 5 in India are stunted, 19% are wasted, 67% of children under 5 are anaemic, 57% of women between 15-49 are anaemic, 25% of men in 15-49 are anaemic.

Originally Posted by thanixravindran

And we may not achieve the 'prosperity' of the West ever at least not in our lifetime due to variety of reasons.

As said, earlier, I am not looking for prosperity of the West. The prediction here is us reaching 4000$ per capita in 15 years. Sri Lanka, Indonesia, Suriname, Mongolia current GDP per capita is currently above 4000$. Namibia is near 5000$, Malaysia is 11,000$.

[thanixravindran]

Originally Posted by carboy

As said, earlier, I am not looking for prosperity of the West. The prediction here is us reaching 4000$ per capita in 15 years. Sri Lanka, Indonesia, Suriname, Mongolia current GDP per capita is currently above 4000$. Namibia is near 5000$, Malaysia is 11,000$.

Apologies I am not getting your contention here. Is it that we won't reach 4000 USD per capita in 15 years or it is not enough? What is wrong with the countries listed in the post for comparison?

[V.Narayan]

What sort of medicines do typical non governments provide? Branded or generic?

Generic largely. But there are exceptions where generic are not available. A fixed list of many medicines are provided free of cost. Certain others are supplied at a subsidized price through the Janaushidi scheme. Here privately owned pharma stores sell a long list of generic medicines at very low rates. This works very well in most States. In fact for our medical camps we buy almost all our pills from the local Janaushidi stores to contribute to the local economy instead of carrying everything from a metro city.

If I may continue for the benefit of our readers - At the grass roots we have two pillars in our health system that most urban dwellers, like us on Team BHP, don't get to to encounter - the primary health care centres and the ASHA {Accredited Social Health Activist} workers. India has about 31,000 primary health care centres across the country and about 10.4 lakhs ASHA Workers. The quality of service varies vastly from State to State . It can vary from pretty good in Kerala, Gujarat, Telangana for example to moderate in Haryana, Maharashtra, to weak in Jharkhand, UP, Bihar. These services are free and the first line of defence in the reduction we have witnessed in infant mortality for example over the last 3 decades. To build this system to a fully acceptable level of quality will require a lot of effort still. In an environment where there was nothing to where there is something is a significant jump for the patient.

Originally Posted by lapis_lazuli

As per your observations on ground, has the general awareness increased? Like not believing in snake oil, the faqeer or the baba for epilepsy cure, or a garland to cure jaundice or pox?

Superstition prevails in India at all levels of society to greater or lesser degree. And yes it does prevail in the hinterland but I think to a much lower degree than say 25 or 50 years ago thanks to whatever little improvements we've had in women's education and empowerment, urbanization, education and creation of the primary healthcare centres across India. We do come across patients mistreated with these superstitions and therefore in peril. On another note there is real merit in the traditional plant based medicines that are used by the tribals. Superstition & non-scientific beliefs are not limited to our poor. Many educated also subscribe to palmistry, numerology etc. :-) To each his own.

From what I see first hand women's empowerment and education will move the needle in our development more than any other single factor.

[Lalvaz]

Originally Posted by Electromotive

India is a parasite infested, hollowed-out tree. It appears healthy on the outside but is only a storm away from being broken into pieces. And that storm is on the horizon.

If I appear to be cryptic, it is deliberate, because rule-of-law and freedom-of-speech are things that only exists in textbooks

This whole post is totally off topic, and it has nothing to do with helping people understand Economics.

[C300]

Originally Posted by Electromotive

The region we now call India has always been home to a collectivist, risk-abhorring culture that shuns change of any sort. Look at the history and notice the innovations, or lack there of. The absence of basic inventions like windmills, waterwheels or even the arch (till the mughal invasion) presents a picture most won't want to acknowledge. This culture suppresses individualism and kills any scope for innovation. And innovation is a requirement for creating wealth, prosperity and security. Which is why the only time we move forward as a people/society is when an external agent acts on us and forces its will. At one time it was the Mughals, then came the British (who actually created the foundation for the current India) and then came globalization. Guess which will be the next agent(s)?
.

This is baseless and factually incorrect post. I suggest you read few history textbooks.
Start with these videos:

https://youtu.be/f7CW7S0zxv4

https://youtu.be/uh6MPY92MAk

[carboy]

Originally Posted by thanixravindran

Is it that we won't reach 4000 USD per capita in 15 years or it is not enough?

It is that whether our reaching 4000 USD after 15 years can be considered as our time in the sun.

[kiku007]

On a recent trip to Singapore I was chatting with my Grab (the equivalent of Uber/Ola) driver. For context, I live in Australia and the driver had lived in Australia for a while before moving to Singapore. I was impressed to see the public transport and road infrastructure in SG and mentioned the same to him. He noted that Australian Governments have 4 year terms and their plan/vision is only limited to 4-5 years into the future and not beyond. Whereas in Singapore they look 50 years ahead. I haven't spent a lot of time in SG to literally/objectively analyze this statement. However, I can relate to what he said because Australia's road infrastructure and public transport needs improvement.

I am amused how in this thread (and in many others), the minute someone points about the slow pace of development in India, people ask them to look BACK 25, 50, 75 years to argue that the pace isn't slow. What an irony?!

It is good to look back to know where we came from, but it is even more important to look ahead. Race winners spend more time looking ahead at the next corner and not so much at their rear view mirror.

[v1p3r]

Originally Posted by Electromotive

India is a parasite infested, hollowed-out tree. It appears healthy on the outside but is only a storm away from being broken into pieces. And that storm is on the horizon.

I'm no rosy-eyed optimist, but your polemic is a bit much. Also, it contributes little to the actual understanding of economics. But if you're happy with saying it, that's quite important.

Originally Posted by carboy

It is that whether our reaching 4000 USD after 15 years can be considered as our time in the sun.

It cannot. Our PPP / nominal ratio is about 3.3. At this, it would imply a PPP per capita of 13.3k USD. China is already at 20k today. In my opinion, we will not overtake China in the next 75 years, and maybe not even after that.

V.Narayan pointed out the stellar improvement in healthcare and lives at a rural level, something that I daresay none of us are familiar with. We have come a very long way in many respects, and there is no denying it.

The real issue is that we split into two very different countries. Most people on TBHP lead a life that is above most eastern European averages. We are a small, infinitesimally tiny bubble in a large country where many people still subsist at best.

For those of us in this bubble, nothing less than a western European or North American lifestyle will do. We already have accessible healthcare, education, entertainment, opportunities, and disposable income. We have 10 minute groceries, and vast menus of delivery options on 5G. We want more progress. Our biggest gripes on this forum are after sales service for multimillion rupee cars, sunfilm bans, and layoffs from IT jobs. To us, infant mortality is an almost unrelatable statistic.

The rest, and most, of India aspires to two square meals a day. A permanent house would be nice. Not being an illness away from starvation would be great. Children being born healthy all the time would be a real blessing. Not dying of exhaustion while walking home during a lockdown is something that they can only aspire to.

For the first crowd, our progress as a large, lumbering collection of political entities and egos, growing in spite of itself, will never be enough. I am among the first set. I will consider India's time in the sun has come when we send our children on a domestic flight for higher studies, and we are in high demand amongst foreign students from the US or EU. I do not think this will occur in this century.

For the second crowd, 13.3k PPP is a big freakin' deal. However, with India's inequality, I just hope it actually reaches them - currently 90% of India's income is less than half our per capita. This is because our top 10% earns 57% of all income.

Younger people with no knowledge of the India will bemoan our sluggish progress. Those who are more experienced, both in age and in worldview, will recognise that things are evolving. Evolution is always incremental.

[carboy]

Nice comment!!

However,

Originally Posted by v1p3r

For those of us in this bubble, nothing less than a western European or North American lifestyle will do.

This is the 3rd time I am stating this in the last couple of pages but I am not looking for 1st world or even 2nd world standards.

Currently, Sri Lanka, Indonesia, Suriname, Mongoliahave GDP per capita is currently above 4000$. Namibia is near 5000$, Malaysia is 11,000$.

So the prospect of 4000$ in 15 years doesn't really thrill me.

[sunilch]

Originally Posted by carboy

Nice comment!!

However,


This is the 3rd time I am stating this in the last couple of pages but I am not looking for 1st world or even 2nd world standards.

Currently, Sri Lanka, Indonesia, Suriname, Mongoliahave GDP per capita is currently above 4000$. Namibia is near 5000$, Malaysia is 11,000$.

So the prospect of 4000$ in 15 years doesn't really thrill me.

Yes, the correct target should be USD11-12K per capita as that is when we will have a good standard of living for majority of the population.