[AMG Power]

Originally Posted by SmartCat

Statue: infrastructure spending, tourism (helps Indian companies, long term employment)

What is the Cost benefit analysis? On what basis was a decision was a decision taken to erect the statue in Gujarat? (Other than the obvious) How many tourists are expected? What is the additional revenue? How does a tourist attraction become infrastructure?

Originally Posted by SmartCat

Parliament: infrastructure spending (helps Indian companies)

How does it help companies? What is the expected increase in their revenue / profitability of the companies if it does actually happen? Was there a request from companies to help them in this manner? Has there been any study to justify this? If it is to help the companies around Delhi, what about companies in the rest of India? Does it justify spending that money only for companies in North India? As an FYI, this development is the Central Vista which is intended only for government offices.

Originally Posted by SmartCat

Bullet train: dirt cheap loans, make-in-India via JV (includes technology transfer)

Availability of dirt cheap loans does not mean that it should be availed. The fact that it is dirt cheap also indicates surplus of international loan funds and not a special concession for India. What is the cost benefit analysis? Why has Ahmedabad been selected (other than the obvious reason) when the natural choice would be Delhi - Mumbai which would have benefited more people. When there is a move to privatise railways which has already started why should the government bother about transfer of technology - leave that headache to the private sector to whom all of this will eventually be passed on to.

Originally Posted by SmartCat

VIP Planes: $300 to $450 million is the list price of a new Boeing 777. The extra bits (custom interiors, communications, missile defence etc) don't cost that much over the base cost (for 2 aircraft).

The original budget for this 4469 crores and within a year it's gone to 8500 crores. This increase isn't "expenditure", it's "revenue".

Originally Posted by SmartCat

Even if there is something for underprivileged, it does not hit the headlines. It is boring news.

That's because the schemes announced aren't worth mentioning and hence boring.

Here is what makes headlines when governments actually do something for their citizens:

UK - 80% of salaries being paid to all employees

https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/www.b...iness-51982005



OR

US: $1200 per head / $2400 per couple plus $ 500 per child



https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/amp.c...sit/index.html


OR

Australia $750 per head as in Australia



https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/m.eco...w/74586306.cms

You will find as above there are enough and more reasons to make headlines.

Originally Posted by SmartCat

Remember that politicians are extremely canny - you They will not let a good opportunity to win votes pass by.

True, if it did benefit the citizens we would have heard quite a lot about it. Unfortunately none of the schemes put forth by the government help citizens, or those affected by Covid, or those who businesses are affected by Covid or those who have lost their jobs due to Covid as have been done by other countries as shown above.

[SmartCat]

Originally Posted by AMG Power

UK - 80% of salaries being paid to all employees US: $1200 per head / $2400 per couple plus $ 500 per child. Australia $750 per head as in Australia. You will find as above there are enough and more reasons to make headlines.

US, UK, EU, Australia - they are classified as 'Developed economy' for a reason.

If India's currency was strong, if India did not have an inflation problem, if exports were higher than imports etc, I think bigger payouts might have been possible. Our economy is simply not strong enough for cash payouts of such magnitude. Just do the math -> number of households in India (250 million) x decent cash payout.

[DigitalOne]

Originally Posted by ashokrajagopal

Its very simple. If it managed to defer, the news should already be published given the amount of Social media campaigning government does.
I expect the govt to publish it if it managed to defer about 2k cr payment for the next 2-3 years.

This FY has still 4 more months to go. At least, we are agreed that in the worst case scenario is govt pays Boeing around 800cr this FY, and not 8500cr as illiterate media/politicians claim.

Originally Posted by AMG Power

The original budget for this 4469 crores and within a year it's gone to 8500 crores. This increase isn't "expenditure", it's "revenue".

Source link, please. A screenshot is not a source.

[DigitalOne]

Originally Posted by SmartCat

Our economy is simply not strong enough for cash payouts of such magnitude. Just do the math -> number of households in India (250 million) x decent cash payout.

It may not be so expensive if cash handouts is restricted just to Jan Dhan accounts.

Back in August I had given this back of the envelope estimates for such a scheme.

Originally Posted by DigitalOne

Here is how to generate demand - Give a Basic Income for all Jan Dhan bank account holders.

1. Transfer 500rs to every Jan Dhan account month. Cost to govt = 20 crore accounts * 500 = 10,000 cr, which is quite affordable.

2. Create a trust for operational purpose. Govt funds 10,000 crore every month.

3. Eliminate any bias, any discretion for trustees. Trust is simply for legal purpose and remove any influence of all government. It is just a technical transactional pipe.

4. Make it very simple for citizens to contribute to the fund. If we know that there is no bias, no discretion, no hidden agendas, I would be very much inspired to directly help my fellow citizens who are in trouble.

5. Govt contributes 10,000cr every month, and if contributions from citizens touches another 5000 cr, a JD account holder gets 750 pm, no questions asked.

This is a social security net for our poorer sections. They are assured at least 500rs per month over on top of what they are earning. And it will generate consumption demand.

Of course, there will be entrenched socialists or bureaucracy who will oppose this for their own reasons. Socialists oppose any moves which doesn't give them the power of other peoples lives.

The key is to make totally automated without any discretionary powers to anybody. The technology exists but for obvious reasons no politician will touch it.

[AMG Power]

Originally Posted by SmartCat

Our economy is simply not strong enough for cash payouts of such magnitude.

That was not the point being made.

It is true that India will not have the funds to make such payments.

You had mentioned:

Originally Posted by SmartCat

Even if there is something for the underprivileged, it does not hit the headlines. It is boring news.

What is that something that has been done for the underprivileged that has not hit the headlines?

My point is if there is something REALLY being done for the underprivileged unlike the sort of schemes that were announced, it would catch headlines.

The examples shown were cases that did hit headlines when countries did something for its citizens. India may not have enough funds to hand out cash to all its citizens but it can do something else like make health care free or education free or at least Covid treatment free - if not for all, at least for BPL folks. That would be far better than spending 60, 000 crores on bullet trains, statues, sprucing up areas around the parliament and VVIP aircrafts.

The fact is there is nothing of any sort being done in India for our BPL folks that is worthy of mention and as a consequence catch headlines.

On another note and in response to some earlier posts, unlike the situation that existed earlier, Covid 19 has ensured there is no need to be on a waiting list for new Boeings or Airbus'. There are a lot of airlines who do not wish to take delivery of Boeings and Airbus' that were ordered and these are available at substantial discounts from the Airlines. Some manufacturer contracts allow cancellation on payment of substantial penalties which also make it worthwhile to take delivery and locate a buyer. (Have interests in a business that connects prospective buyers of all types of aircraft - new and / or used - to sellers of all types of aircraft - not a good business to have interests in right now )

Most governments cannot buy new aircraft from other airlines even if the price is substantially lower, they have to pay the full price and buy it from the manufacturer.

[V.Narayan]

November GST at Rs 1.05 lakh crore

Originally Posted by V.Narayan

GST monthly collection crosses Rs 1.00 lakh crore for the first time in 8 months. October collection = Rs 1.05 lakh crores.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/...w/78979142.cms

The revenue was 10% higher than the Rs 95,379 crores in the same month last year. Rs 1.00 lakh-crore is considered the minimum collection benchmark to be considered at the lower end of the healthy economy range. Rs 1.10 lakh crore collection would be considered in peak health. Regardless of our political colour this is an encouraging sign. I wouldn't lean on the side of the jingoistic trolls in social media who are going ga-ga but if we sustain this for 4 months then we have a genuine trend line and after a point economic activity begets more economic activity.

Interestingly GST collections for November 2020 came in at Rs 1.05 lakh crore same as October 2020 and 1.4% higher than November 2019. This is good news for the economy and a cash strapped Govt. However I am trying to reconcile these normal GST figures with a shrinking GDP. Both can be true at the same time for a short time given that every segment of the economy is not subject to GST.

[Cessna182]

Originally Posted by V.Narayan

Interestingly GST collections for November 2020 came in at Rs 1.05 lakh crore same as October 2020 and 1.4% higher than November 2019. This is good news for the economy and a cash strapped Govt. However I am trying to reconcile these normal GST figures with a shrinking GDP. Both can be true at the same time for a short time given that every segment of the economy is not subject to GST.

A lot of spending was postponed for the festive season and there was a pent up demand. This could explain the similar GST collections for these two months. We will get a clearer picture in the next month's report I think because by then the major Indian festivals will be over.
Anecdotally, people engaged in small businesses like small manufacturers of utensils, house decoration accesories and jewelry reported a very muted Diwali season this year. It was bad last year but was much worse this year.

[V.Narayan]

^^^^^^
Was a grace period for payment of GST provided by the Govt for the months of March'20 to Sept'20? Would any T-BHP member know? If yes then this healthy GST collection in Oct & Nov could just be a back log catching up.

[greenoval]

Originally Posted by V.Narayan

^^^^^^
Was a grace period for payment of GST provided by the Govt for the months of March'20 to Sept'20? Would any T-BHP member know? If yes then this healthy GST collection in Oct & Nov could just be a back log catching up.

Government had extended GST filing dates for this duration. Our company (SME) had availed of this extension and we paid our GST for March - August in September. The paid amount though was very low compared to normal times. Few of our vendors (especially those totally out of business during the lockdown) paid their outstanding GST from January to March in October. There certainly was a backlog that existed in GST payments. This combined with the pent up demand and the festive season buying could be reasons for the payment surge.

Also, many small companies file their GST returns quarterly (Jan-Mar, Apr- June, Jul-Sep) and not monthly. Not sure how this backlog of almost 3 quarters impacted collection.

[Gsynch]

Originally Posted by Cessna182

A lot of spending was postponed for the festive season and there was a pent up demand. This could explain the similar GST collections for these two months. We will get a clearer picture in the next month's report I think because by then the major Indian festivals will be over.
Anecdotally, people engaged in small businesses like small manufacturers of utensils, house decoration accesories and jewelry reported a very muted Diwali season this year. It was bad last year but was much worse this year.

GST collection in Sept 2020 was higher than that of in Sept 2019.

https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleaseP...t%20of%20goods).

This is the third back-to-back month where GST growth has been seen, my sense is, and I could be wrong here, the formal economy is limping back to normalcy while informal one is the one suffering the most.

[Cessna182]

An unfortunate incident in Karnataka.

https://m.timesofindia.com/city/beng...w/79691511.cms

I am not taking sides, but paying 8000 to an assembly line worker of an iPhone that costs over 60k is not right. A worker in China earns thrice as much. A Bangladeshi worker earns twice working in a garment factory.

[Turbohead]

Originally Posted by Cessna182

An unfortunate incident in Karnataka.

https://m.timesofindia.com/city/beng...w/79691511.cms

I am not taking sides, but paying 8000 to an assembly line worker of an iPhone that costs over 60k is not right.

Let's not forget that they also have to pay for petrol to go to work because it's unlikely that the company provided buses( and public transport buses) will be allowed to run thanks to Covid-19. And chances are most of them will spend 25% and maybe more of their salary for getting to work.

It's an insult for people who live hand to mouth.

[extreme_torque]

Originally Posted by SmartCat

US, UK, EU, Australia - they are classified as 'Developed economy' for a reason.

To me it always sounds like a convenient excuse. Firstly they are developed economics not because they are rich, they are rich because they are develop economies. A major part of it is because the population does not make excuses on behalf of politicians. Even though Australia is one of the richest country on the planet with very high levels of prosperity and the one with highest minimum wage, the prime minister wont just get away if he orders VVIP jumbo jets to ferry himself and his cabinet by spending $2bn and that is in good times (booming economy, low unemployment), in a global pandemic that has effected everyone - not a chance! They are scrutinised tirelessly by the media and public for even charting private flights, since there are no flights, for travels during this time!

There was a comprehensive grant program for all small business and a job keeper program which is a wage subsidy, paid to the employer to help cover the cost of wages for their employee to keep the economy going and households from collapsing. The job keeper payment alone was $1500 a fortnight, or approx $3000 a month. Then there are numerous other smaller programmes such as a one of $300 hardship payment if you were forced to take a leave from work due to COVID test or the $200 grant which is given if you visit regional areas and spend atleast 2 days and more than $400 on accomodation or other expenses to kick start the rural economy. This is in addition to all testing and treatment being free for COVID over and above high quality universal healthcare that every citizen enjoys. There are business's which have rorted these schemes because there was less due diligence process wise for these payments since the government needed to act fast which is to say that, it is easier to scam as a citizen than it is to scam as a public servant.

The point i am trying to make is if we keep on making excuses on behalf of our politicians, we will never be a developed economy. We may not be a rich country but hand on heart, do you think our political class has tried their hardest and kept the interest of people above their's and their cronies. I still cant get the images of hundred upon thousand of the most vulnerable, poorest citizens being left to die on the roads including small children while a country wide lockdown was imposed on a notice period of 4 hours. What does it say about us as a civilisation? There is just no excuse for that.

Probity isnt to be expected, its demanded.

[DigitalOne]

Originally Posted by extreme_torque

the prime minister wont just get away if he orders VVIP jumbo jets to ferry himself and his cabinet by spending $2bn

....

As I had quoted in this thread earlier, these two planes were being used commercially by Air India till 2018 when they were sent back to Boeing for security refurbishments. These are part of a long procurement process and most of the cost is already paid to Boeing in past years.

Originally Posted by DigitalOne

Plane deliveries are part of long procurement process. Most of the payments would have already been made to Boeing much before. These are not exactly a Flipkart "cash-on-delivery" type transactions.

Aircraft are part of Air India's 2006 order of 68 aircraft given to US-based aircraft maker Boeing;

The cost of the security refurbishments is estimated at 1.18 billion USD and not 2 billion USD.

Thus far, the national carrier has denied sharing the cost of these aircraft but a back-of-the-envelope calculation show they are going to cost about $1.18 billion (over Rs 8,458 crore at the current exchange rate) to the exchequer.

Source for above quotes: Business Today

--------------------

Originally Posted by extreme_torque

...while a country wide lockdown was imposed on a notice period of 4 hours.

Before the national lockdown was announced, most states had already announced lockdowns or curfew. The "4-hour lockdown" is actually a myth.

Originally Posted by DigitalOne

Fact check on the so-called "4-hour" lockdown announcement

After the Janata Curfew (Mar 22nd, Sunday) many states had already announced curfews or lockdowns from Monday (March 23rd) onwards.

When the national lockdown was announced by PM on Tue (Mar 24th, 8 PM), almost all the country was already in states' declared lockdowns or curfew.

This news report from March 23th is very revealing.

Source : Indian Express

[extreme_torque]

Originally Posted by DigitalOne

As I had quoted in this thread earlier, these two planes were being used commercially by Air India till 2018 when they were sent back to Boeing for security refurbishments. These are part of a long procurement process and most of the cost is already paid to Boeing in past years.

Where does it say in the article that they were being used commercially? If they were indeed being used commercially until 2018, why was there a budget provision of 4,741.85 crores 2018-19 and 2019-20? I am sure the modelling of the insides of the aircraft for a commercial aircraft is completely different to planes modelled purely for ferrying VVIP's. I am not sure the theory that were used commercially stands as such.

Originally Posted by DigitalOne

The cost of the security refurbishments is estimated at 1.18 billion USD and not 2 billion USD.

Incorrect, thats the total cost of the airplanes not just refurbishments. And what i said was approx $2bn AUD not USD.

Originally Posted by DigitalOne

Before the national lockdown was announced, most states had already announced lockdowns or curfew. The "4-hour lockdown" is actually a myth.

Source : Indian Express

This is exactly what I said when I said "making excuses on behalf of the government". Not all lockdowns are the same. The extent of lockdown announced by center government of March 24th vs lockdown announced by states was different on an order of magnitude. For e.g here is Maha

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wSrBSJYeo48&t

Most states announced one week shutdown on the days leading up to 24th March. I wonder if the states were even consulted before the dreaded announcement was mode on the 24th March which was 3 times longer and much harsher. The contrasting action between states and the center also created panic which saw desperate people on the roads trying to reach their families in their home states.

March 24 lockdown was a house arrest for 1.3bn people including millions of migrant labourers in big cities without jobs, money or a mean to sustain themselves or a way to feed their dependent family's back home. They werent even given a chance to travel back to their home state either.