[greyhound82]

A different perspective on Chinese economy. May be a Chinese propaganda.

https://youtu.be/NCyOoXEXfuU?si=7j2wDqStRGfAMHkz

[AutoGalaxy]

Originally Posted by NewUser123

For anyone who thinks this can help the US re-industrialise, here is a great article about what challenges lie ahead.

https://open.substack.com/pub/hereco...droid&r=2o2kcj

This is a wonderful article bringing out apprehensions about the tariffs. The author is a learned man with on-the-ground experiences.

What's more fascinating is understanding how complex the policy-making is and how Governments should have long horizons in visibility while drafting. Setting the right goals for all of us as a country and then preparing the stage to achieve them. I really hope the Govt functionaries and departments across States and in Delhi have qualified people and visionaries to set India on right path!

[maddy42]

Originally Posted by Samurai

Protection is a passive thing. But China did some active things like:


Our customs department alone has destroyed more businesses than funding crunch. I often joke that India succeeded in software export mainly because we could bypass customs. If I need a foreign software, I can download from any foreign website. But if I need any special equipment for my work, it can get stuck in customs for months. Once we had ordered an equipment from Europe, it arrived in Delhi airport in 24 hours. But they had added one free item which was not listed in the manifest. So, the package was stuck in customs for 3 months since the person who ordered it was in USA, and he was personally required to be present to release it.

One friend i know is running around from pillar to post to import a motorcycle. Bike is stuck in a major southern port for 4 months and the customs agent is hell bent on forcing him to give up the motorcycle.

All this after paying duties!

[m8002?]

So, did Trump blink twice in the staring game? Once, when he paused the tariffs seeing the bond markets spike and now on removing the tariffs for phones, laptops, etc? Of course, he will claim both as victories.

[ToThePoint]

Originally Posted by m8002?

So, did Trump blink twice in the staring game? Once, when he paused the tariffs seeing the bond markets spike and now on removing the tariffs for phones, laptops, etc? Of course, he will claim both as victories.

He has said that this is temporary relief while a separate "semiconductor tariff" category is specifically created for these items. So there will be tariff going forward but at different rate.

Ultimately I see different categories being created based on the negotiations with countries and deals there on instead of current blanket tariffs.

[BullettuPaandi]

Originally Posted by m8002?

removing the tariffs for phones, laptops, etc

I remember reading that only the escalated ones are removed for some electronics related goods- Chips, equipment, Phones, Laptops, etc.- and that these still face the "Fentanyl Tariff" of 20%, that was announced before the escalation.

Originally Posted by ToThePoint

Ultimately I see different categories being created based on the negotiations with countries and deals there on instead of current blanket tariffs.

Won't this be too complicated to implement and be effective? They have already tried this pre-pandemic, at least in semi-conductors and electronic goods from what I recall.

[aashishnb]

I recollect a quote I heard/ read some time ago,

The US$ is so powerful, because it is backed by the full might of US Navy, Air Force & Army.

It did work against a lot of smaller countries. Let's see where it takes us next. Trump seems to be keen to reduce cost being incurred on maintaining this might also or atleast sharing it with allies.

[PatienceWins]

Just caught up on this thread and loving the discussion.

US took money printing to the extreme during Covid and that is biting them hard now with the high debt/ GDP ratio which is unsustainable in the long run. The monetary lever of printing more money can no longer be used with rising inflation.

Trump is right in the diagnosis that fiscal prudence is the way forward by controlling expenditures and increasing revenues. But he has got the medicine wrong with tariffs, wrongful implementation of DOGE, pulling out from NATO commitments. US cannot reap the benefits of the world power without the associated costs in military, foreign aids, trade etc. He is being penny wise and pound foolish. The second order effects could increase the pace of de-dollarization, increase bond yields and bring a US sovereign debt crisis. Dollar demand (US trade deficits and use of dollar as the reserve currency of the world) have been the corner stone of the closed loop of taking on more debt and refinancing the expiring bonds. Interesting times ahead.

As per some economists, the main reason for the cold war with China is the digital payment system by China which is more advanced than SWIFT. BRICS (with leadership of China) is also contemplating a new currency (maybe backed by gold standard). BRICS is also being expanded by inclusion of more countries, especially the oil producing middle east. All these threatens the reserve currency status of dollar. US economy cannot sustain without SWIFT and dollar being the reserve currency.

[V.Narayan]

Expect India-EU Free Trade Agreement to come into force this year, says Swedish Trade Commissioner

https://www.deccanherald.com/busines...sioner-3495298

India mulls slashing tariffs on over half of its imports from USA; set to ink $500 billion trade deal

https://www.financialexpress.com/pol...-deal-3810216/

UK-India Free Trade Agreement nearly done, say British officials

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com...5.cms?from=mdr

Some may criticize India for not taking on a belligerent stand with USA like China and the EU have done. India has instead picked the path of steady negotiation - give some to gain some and protect the roughly 5.5 million employed in our IT industry and protect our ~86 billion of exports to USA growing at ~12% per annum. And unlike the EU, Canada or China we have not suffered {yet} any directed Trumponian ire. We are a $4 trillion economy dealing with a $27 trillion one. Makes sense to be pragmatic and keep our hurt on one side. Plus Trump needs a victory somewhere - what better than to announce a trade deal with India the 5th largest economy. The $500 billion number is the target for India-US trade by 2030.

This will also mark a change in India's age long tariff wall policy. I am not educated enough to judge if lowering tariffs is better or is keeping the tariff barrier high and encouraging domestic industry better. The question is no longer relevant as events have overtaken us and successive Governments have failed repeatedly to improve the ease of doing business in India.

Doing business in India is best exemplified by this post on Twitter {now X} of the number of approvals from petty babudom are needed to run a simple flour mill. Flooded with goods from China and soon to be from USA and Europe Indian manufacturing industry will be in for a rough ride unless the Government suddenly discovers the ability and wisdom to implement Liberalization Mark II.

[kiku007]

Originally Posted by kiku007

If you are really interested to know about Australia and the gender pay gap, then you can do so in the following links,

https://www.afr.com/work-and-careers...0250226-p5lf9a

https://www.wgea.gov.au/pay-and-gend...r-pay-gap-data

https://www.theguardian.com/australi...ernment-report

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-03-...wgea/104967394

P.S: It is illegal to pay a woman less than a man for the same job. I’d be shocked if anyone thinks that’s the issue Australia is trying to fix.

Originally Posted by kiku007

Source: https://www.wgea.gov.au/about/workplace-gender-equality
Australia is moving in the right direction and I'm fine with it.

Half a million workers in line for pay rise after Fair Work decision to address gender imbalance

• Hundreds of thousands of Australians in industries with women-heavy workforces are in line for pay rises of up to 35 per cent following a landmark decision by the Fair Work Commission to address gendered pay imbalances.
• The FWC handed down its ruling today, finding that certain childcare workers, pharmacists, dental assistants and therapists and other healthcare professionals, and social workers, which are all covered by five different awards, have "been the subject of gender-based undervaluation".
• It ruled that affected pharmacists will get a pay raise of 14.1 per cent, to come into effect in stages between June this year and June 2027.

• While workers covered by the remaining four awards will have their exact pay rises determined at a later date, the FWC's expert panel handed down provisional recommendations, which included a boost to minimum award rates of up to 35.23 per cent.

• The Australian Council of Trade Unions (ACTU) said more than half a million workers would benefit from the decision: 175,000 who are paid directly under the five awards, and a further 335,000 whose wages are underpinned by those awards."Unions welcome today's landmark ruling by the Fair Work Commission, which recognises that working Australians should not be undervalued and underpaid because of their gender," ACTU president Michele O'Neil said.

Source: https://www.9news.com.au/national/fa...e-1dba18474713

Further reading:
https://www.fwc.gov.au/about-us/news...sion-published

https://www.fwc.gov.au/hearings-deci...-awards-review

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This is very relevant for a developing country like India.

Why are women missing from the factory floors in India? - Women in India are mostly concentrated in the informal sector, which is low paying and offers a poor standard of working



One of the drivers of Viksit Bharat will be manufacturing. One of the pillars of Viksit Bharat is ‘nari (women)’. However, women are missing from the factory floors. The share of women in India’s formal manufacturing sector fell from 20.9% in 2015-16 to 18.9% in 2022-23 (1.57 million out of 8.34 million formal workers). What is even more striking is that of all the women working in manufacturing, Tamil Nadu alone is employing 41%.

In informal manufacturing, women form 43% of the workforce. Therefore, it is not the case that women are not working, but that they are not getting the “better” jobs. This again points to informalisation and the low paying nature of jobs held by women.

Manufacturing contributes almost one-fifth of India’s GDP. It is poised to be a key growth driver for India. Yet the participation of women in this sector remains low. Compared to other developing economies such as Bangladesh and Vietnam, India lags behind.

Tamil Nadu, which employs the largest chunk of the formal female workforce, and four other States make up almost three-quarters of India’s total. This implies that five States are responsible for most of the formal female manufacturing workforce (Chart 1a).











Details available in the attached report.[ATTACH=Why are women missing from the factory floors in India? | Data - The Hindu.pdf]2749698[/ATTACH]

Source: https://www.thehindu.com/data/why-ar...le69457132.ece

Conclusion:
Thus, women in India are mostly concentrated in the informal sector, which is low paying and offers a poor standard of working. Therefore, it is important to transition women from the informal to the formal sector to ensure a decent pay and work environment.

[volkman10]

Signs of a blink to happen soon!

Trump signals tit-for-tat China tariffs may be near end.

"I don't want them to go higher because at a certain point you make it where people don't buy," Trump told reporters about tariffs at the White House

"So, I may not want to go higher or I may not want to even go up to that level. I may want to go to less because you know you want people to buy and, at a certain point, people aren't gonna buy."

Source: Reuters

[PearlJam]

Originally Posted by V.Narayan

I am not educated enough to judge if lowering tariffs is better or is keeping the tariff barrier high and encouraging domestic industry better. The question is no longer relevant as events have overtaken us and successive Governments have failed repeatedly to improve the ease of doing business in India.

While I agree that there are pros and cons, some of the tariffs charged on the imports by India (by successive governments) is plain ridiculous.

For example:

Bourbon Whisky - 150% (now reduced to 100%)
Harley Davidson motorcycles - 50% (now reduced to 40%)
US farm products - 37.7% on an average
(source: internet)
Premium watches, bicycles, etc - not sure, but I heard it's very high again

India is a growing economy with high aspirations. If the reasonably comfortable middle class wants to own a Harley, or buy an occasional premium icecream, for example, they have to pay ridiculous prices. Way more than what protectionism requires. It creates a bad taste in the mouth, pun intended.

On the other hand, I'm not even sure how much money the Indian government makes from taxing the above, since I assume these are not very high volume imports. I dare say the government is not going to lose much money by reducing taxes significantly. It would create a lot of goodwill among the aspiring middle classes, but more importantly - these are niche goods that are not going to make any significant dent to the prospects of the farmers and struggling class of people.

So a part of me is not unhappy that Trump has forced this upon us. The tariffs will probably settle down somewhere in the middle - which is still better than the past. And I'm sure the government can make sure that the poor are unaffected.

[V.Narayan]

I am no crystal ball expert nor am I a stock market/ finance market expert by any stretch. But looking at the political stands that have been taken by Trump, his need to address his MAGA voter base, the less than competent ministers surrounding him I don't see any compromise or step down by USA on the horizon. This is driven by the factors stated in the previous sentence and the American Govt over estimating its position in the world versus Rest of the World. Some economies like India, Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea will eat a bit of humble pie make their peace with Trump's USA hopefully to the benefit of their economies and simply move on. China may decide this is a God send opportunity to decouple from USA and pursue its own path to hegemony. EU hopefully will become more independent, more capable of defending itself and more united. The world needs a sane EU as a balancing factor and a third leg between Trump and Xi Jinping.

And through this all gradually de-dollarization will take place at least in part to the deep detriment of the US. Markets around the world including India will face dumping by China big time - after all China needs to keep that surplus factory capacity at work. I can't predict where Indian stock markets will go but my guess is over the next 5 years the Indian stock markets will be a small safe haven in stormy seas. Or maybe this is my biased wishful thinking.

The world economy as a whole is likely to slip into a lower GDP growth rate for a while. The average GDP growth rate for the world economy in 2024 was 3%. With 115 of the ~191 countries having 1/3 of their GDP in exports we could very easily see that world GDP growth rate slip to 1% as trade slows down and oil imports slow down. Countries with large home markets and lower dependency on exports are likely to do better than those largely dependent on exports. China exports 20% of its GDP. India exports 22% versus the world average of ~ 29%. Infact China, India, Japan and USA are the only large economies well below the average and each has a large home market!

[WhyMe]

Originally Posted by V.Narayan

EU hopefully will become more independent, more capable of defending itself and more united. The world needs a sane EU as a balancing factor and a third leg between Trump and Xi Jinping...

Sir, I feel there are two parts to this point, one economically and other militarily (in case of a plausible world war in next 4 years). Economically perhaps yes but militarily I'm not so sure, many countries (within EU or elsewhere) have shifted far right, some are in transition, some in center, some on left. Then NATO (or any other traditional world organizations since world war 2 for that matter) is a question mark right now.
So ideologically I wonder how this will span out in case of a world war. But again economics and politics are so intertwined (& yet separate) that it's difficult to predict.
But one thing is sure that China is having its moment in the sun.
Just my 2 cents 🤔

[Linuskm]

Originally Posted by WhyMe

Sir, I feel there are two parts to this point, one economically and other militarily (in case of a plausible world war in next 4 years). Economically perhaps yes but militarily I'm not so sure, many countries (within EU or elsewhere) have shifted far right, some are in transition, some in center, some on left. Then NATO (or any other traditional world organizations since world war 2 for that matter) is a question mark right now.
So ideologically I wonder how this will span out in case of a world war. But again economics and politics are so intertwined (& yet separate) that it's difficult to predict.
But one thing is sure that China is having its moment in the sun.
Just my 2 cents 🤔

EU without UK and weakening Germany (economically) is doomed to be a failed experiment in my opinion. Lot of these economies are turning more socialist and their turning into more older population makes them dependent on govt sponsorship. I do not see any hope with this concept. Their strict regulations and unionised labor will make them hard to compete with south asian countries in manufacturing and services sectors.