[SmartCat]

Originally Posted by Jeroen

Well, have a look at these numbers. I don’t think it explains everything, but there is a notable difference in various ratios, India/China compared to the US when it comes to demographics.

This one table packs so much information!

- Population density of India is 12x that of USA
- But we can't link high population density with poor HDI either. Japan & Phillipines too have 300+ people per sq km
- Reason why USA economy outperforms Japan can be seen in Migrants (net) numbers. USA welcomed 1.2 million immigrants compared to 150,000 immigrants to Japan.
- And the above can be seen in population growth stats. USA pop went up 0.5% while Japan pop went down 0.5%
- Those Russians have all the land on this earth, but no population. However, I guess most of land area is a cold desert (Siberia). Similarly, Brazil is mostly covered by Amazon rainforest and most of China has low population density thanks to Tibet/Gobi Desert. Most of Australia is uninhabited. India/USA are the only large countries with fairly uniform population density.
- Pakistan is a ticking time bomb. TFR of 3.5, median age of 20 & pop density of 300+. And economy in tatters and insurgency/extremism to the mix and you will understand why 1.4 million fled that country.
- And finally, check out pop density of Bangladesh! Thankfully, their TFR is low.

[Jeroen]

Originally Posted by SmartCat

This one table packs so much information!
.

Its an interesting data set. You can select each column and the sorting/ selection criteria.

E.g. Density p/km2



Migration



Not to reach any conclusions, but it is an interesting way of looking at countries around the world I think

Jeroen

[dragracer567]

Originally Posted by Jeroen

Well, have a look at these numbers. I don’t think it explains everything, but there is a notable difference in various ratios, India/China compared to the US when it comes to demographics.

Attachment 2674096

Thanks for this, reminded me of something. One aspect we often look at when we talk about over-population is the population density, however, this doesn't tell the entire story. For the example, the US population is incredibly concentrated in a few regions as you can see in this map:



Even the greens in this diagram are pretty sparsely populated. This is due to 2 factors:

1) Geography, not all land is inhabitable.

2) Urbanization as since the industrial revolution, populations have been moving to the cities for a better life which has generally been a good thing. Those living in cities almost always have a better standard of life, access to better employment etc.

This is a common trope in the US political landscape as one side show maps filled with red indicating how popular they are but then the counter from the other side is that land doesn't vote, people do and most of those red lands are empty.

You see something similar with China where half of China is basically empty because that half is mostly inhabitable. Not all land is created equal, so just because China has a much bigger area doesn't mean they can hold a much higher population.



You do see this in India as well but unlike the US or China, the areas with high population densities are not urban areas but incredibly rural areas with very little economic activity apart from agriculture. This is India's challenge.



Pakistan is even more interesting to look at, almost their entire population is concentrated in the fertile Punjab plains which is also their most urbanized and economically productive region which explains the Punjabi domination in their country.



Bangladesh's density can be explained by the fact that it was carved out of one the most fertile and also historically most productive regions of India. It's like making a new country out of UP today.

In Europe, the low-countries have relatively higher densities, I believe the Netherlands have the highest or one of the highest densities in Europe thanks to its geography.



It will be interesting to see how this evolves as humans learn to inhabit regions that has historically been uninhabitable (eg. the Gulf countries, Las Vegas) while there is a huge disparity between the TFRs due to various socio-cultural factors not linked to geography.

[warrioraks]

What are opinions of forum members on the current state of Indian economy? I feel things are going south pretty fast. Most of the pent up demand that came post-Covid has fizzled out. The government is being very stubborn around NOT stimulating the economy. There are hardly any fiscal measures being announced - no reduction in taxes or fuel prices which are typically the low hanging fruits. Manufacturing and make in India did not turn out to be the game changer everyone expected. Overall discretionary consumption is dropping and at the same time, food inflation is not coming down. A lot of this is also reflecting in the latest quarterly earnings of Indian companies. This will make it difficult for the RBI to reduce rates. Seems we are in a hard spot.

[V.Narayan]

Thousands of Kindergartens Closed Across China As Birth Rate Declines

https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/techa...d=BingNewsVerp

Hit hard by China’s deepening demographic crisis, thousands of kindergartens have been closed as enrolment of children dropped sharply across the country due to a significant decline in birth rates, according to an official report.

In 2023, the number of kindergartens fell by 14,808 to 274,400, the annual report by the Chinese education ministry stated. It is the second consecutive annual decline in the latest indicator of China's falling birth rates.

The number of children enrolled in kindergarten declined for a third consecutive year – dropping by 11.55 per cent, or 5.35 million, last year to 40.9 million, the Hong Kong based South China Morning Post reported on Sunday, quoting the ministry’s report.

The number of primary schools also dropped by 5,645 to 143,500 in 2023, a 3.8 per cent fall.

The decline reflects a broader demographic shift in China – where both birth rates and total population continue to dwindle – posing a serious threat to future economic growth, which is already slowing, the Post report said.

Last year, China’s population dropped for the second year in a row, to 1.4 billion, a decline of over two million. Only nine million births were reported in China in 2023, the lowest figure since records started in 1949. An increasing number of kindergartens have been converted into care centres for senior citizens and many of their staff members have switched jobs to care for the elderly.

China's population has declined for a second consecutive year as of end 2023. Data released in January 2024 showed a population of 1.409 billion at the end of 2023 - a 2.08m decrease from 2022. The most recent decline is double that of the previous year, which marked the first population drop in 60 years. By December 2024 a further decline of a similar degree is expected.

I believe Europe with its freedom of thought, democracy, and social evoloution will deal with its population decline a lot better than rigidly controlled China.

[binand]

Originally Posted by V.Narayan

Thousands of Kindergartens Closed Across China As Birth Rate Declines

This is happening in Kerala too:

https://www.onmanorama.com/career-an...-minister.html

A near-term negative effect is this:

https://english.mathrubhumi.com/news...ased-1.9999820

[whitewing]

Originally Posted by binand

This is happening in Kerala too:

Stunning numbers from the article you shared

He further highlighted that while 4.03 lakh students completed their SSLC last March, only 2.5 lakh children enrolled for Class 1 this year...

This shows a ~40% drop in birth rate in 10 year span !! If this is a secular trend, then Kerala is in deep trouble especially given that it has one of the highest life expectancy in India.

[m8002?]

I am not very sure of the Kerala article while I definitely agree that the population in Kerala is below replacement due to both lower kids and emigration( to other states and outside India ).

That article talks only about reduction in govt. schools. It doesnt address the case if there is a proportionate increase in enrolment in Pvt. schools.

[binand]

Originally Posted by m8002?

I am not very sure of the Kerala article... That article talks only about reduction in govt. schools. It doesnt address the case if there is a proportionate increase in enrolment in Pvt. schools.

It is reporting the sum of government schools and government aided private schools, which cumulatively account for about 93-94% of schools in Kerala. The original Malayalam version of the article makes this point clearer than the English version.

Originally Posted by whitewing

If this is a secular trend, then Kerala is in deep trouble...

See, for example: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-64936519

[Elevate2024]

Demography is Destiny

If we check the historical trends across geographies, Economic growth is inversely related to population growth. We can see the same trend playing in different states of our country too.

Having said that, the reasons for India's economy relative to world's economy has varied reasons for where it is today to what we all would have liked it to be.
But right now, we are in a good place in the sense we have a good growth momentum and we are probably the only big country which can work with all the so called "superpowers" both economic and military with a huge headroom to grow and a population which is still young and on an upward trajectory (plateauing though). If the next couple of decades (a very small time in the long arc of time) we can maintain the economic momentum, we surely would be reaching where China economically today is and in my opinion China would remain or go down due to their declining population which is ageing at the same time, they are also insular i.e. they don't attract immigrants either to compensate the decline.

The idea of controlling the population or reducing it would impact negatively on us too, it would be akin to having a puncture in a race, the reason why the whole world talks to us is because of our huge population size.

Even Elon Musk has recently started stressing on this issue at the world level, the western economies are only being sustained by immigrants coming in otherwise they would have also seen population reduction as seen in S.Korea, Japan and now China and the immigrants impact the domestic politics/culture of the host nation quite massively as can be seen in Europe, Canada, UK and US.

I would rather say, govt should learn from Japan, S.Korea and China and try and recalibrate policies where we don't go in the negative territory of population growth and sustain the current level of population alongside growing the economy with more and more capacity creation.

[dragracer567]

Originally Posted by binand

This is happening in Kerala too:

https://www.onmanorama.com/career-an...-minister.html

A near-term negative effect is this:

https://english.mathrubhumi.com/news...ased-1.9999820

Not just schools, this article talks about ghost towns in Kerala due to reducing fertility rates and emigration.

I expect the situation to be similar in parts of Tamil Nadu as well though probably not as bad due to lower migration.

[warrioraks]

Originally Posted by dragracer567

Not just schools, this article talks about ghost towns in Kerala due to reducing fertility rates and emigration.

I expect the situation to be similar in parts of Tamil Nadu as well though probably not as bad due to lower migration.

It is truly ironic to see this in a country which is overpopulated by any standard.
Local migration if done properly can actually solve a few problems for us. It can redistribute people from the heavily populated northern belt to the southern states. Politicians who are coaxing people to have 16 kids to preserve the parliamentary seats would have quicker results.
Overall it would help if we can match supply with demand on the social infrastructure and economic opportunity aspects. If people are willing to go to another country, learn a new language and culture for better standard of living, they could be nudged to migrate within the country as well in a more planned way.

On the other hand, this will definitely lead to issues around locals complaining about the outsiders, culture erosion and typicals vs Them' debate. So there is no possible right answer here.

[binand]

Originally Posted by warrioraks

Local migration if done properly can actually solve a few problems for us. It can redistribute people from the heavily populated northern belt to the southern states.

Already happening. See, for example:

https://www.newindianexpress.com/sta...n-flutter-mode

Kerala hosts about 40 lakh migrant workers from 25 states.

While both are estimates, this is approximately 11.5% of the state's 3.5Cr population.

Originally Posted by warrioraks

Overall it would help if we can match supply with demand on the social infrastructure and economic opportunity aspects. If people are willing to go to another country, learn a new language and culture for better standard of living, they could be nudged to migrate within the country as well in a more planned way.

Not a fan of of wanting to pluck people out of their home environment and planting them elsewhere - often separated from their own family & friends, into a society & culture that is alien and incomprehensible to them. Policy initiatives that attempt to do this will be the clearest indication of governance failure.

What would actually help is increasing supply of social infrastructure and economic opportunity in areas where the demand exists.

[warrioraks]

Originally Posted by binand

Already happening. See, for example:

What the article states is market forces led migration. It's no different from people in North going to Bangalore or Hyderabad for jobs. It is purely economic opportunity based and is not based on any government planning.
On the other hand, my previous post was about about government policy level initiatives to use these ghost towns in a more resourceful way.

Not a fan of of wanting to pluck people out of their home environment and planting them elsewhere - often separated from their own family & friends, into a society & culture that is alien and incomprehensible to them. Policy initiatives that attempt to do this will be the clearest indication of governance failure.

What would actually help is increasing supply of social infrastructure and economic opportunity in areas where the demand exists.

Planned migration and creation on new infra needs to happen in parallel.
We already have millions of people leaving their home environment every year migrating to Delhi, Mumbai, Bangalore, Hyderabad, etc. where better economic opportunities exist. So a policy initiative to nudge people to these ghost towns by better planning and job creation is conceptually nothing new. On top of it, it is voluntary so no one is plucking people from anywhere. Policy nudged migration is not forced migration.

As the highest populated country on this planet, we have limited resources which are already strained. These ghost towns seems like under-utilized infrastructure. There is a social and an economic opportunity to exploit here.

[PreludeSH]

Isn't economic migration indirectly through policies of the govt in places where they migrate to ? Cant just be luck ! Its not like erstwhile gold rush where one is trying to acquire some natural resource.

With more automation coming in (if we don't impede them), there will be even less jobs and situation will only deteriorate.

Waiting to see how the new US administration reduces govt expenditure and bureaucracy. Expect some spectacular things or nothing at all. Don't think we will see some attempts that are going to crash through with more negative impacts.