[Stribog]

There are many preconceived "notions" that many of us have on road accidents. A few I see often in many threads in this forum itself,

1 - 2 Wheelers are inherently unsafe
2 - The converse, cars are safer
3- Trucks and buses are doombringers

And a lot more.

Well, let us look at the numbers behind accidents in India. Morbid yes but relevant also imo. MoRTH publishes data annually (like pretty much all central govt bureaus like say NCRB) which can be a treasure trove for those who like number crunching.

At the outset though, there is no escaping the fact that Indian roads are fatal in absolute numbers.

Some meta stats - All Data is from the Sept report covering 2019-20 (no report has been published thus far this year, but would be interesting to see the impact COVID had on accidents)

1 - India, ranks 1st in the number of road accident deaths across the 199 countries reported in the World Road Statistics, 2018 followed by China and US. As per the WHO Global Report on Road Safety 2018, India accounts for almost 11% of the accident related deaths in the World

2- A total of 4,49,002 road accidents have been reported by States and Union Territories (UTs) in the calendar year 2019, claiming 1,51,113 lives and causing injuries to 4,51,361 persons. Normalised to population, you have

A 0.05% chance of being involved in an accident with a 0.01% chance of it being fatal.

3- In percentage terms, in 2019, the number of accidents have decreased by 3.86 percent, persons killed has decreased by 0.20% and injuries have decreased by 3.85 percent over that of the previous year i.e. 2018. Road accident severity measured by the number of persons killed per 100 accidents has seen an increase of 1.3 percentage points in 2019 over the previous year

4- National Highways & State Highways which account for about 5% of the total road length accounts for a disproportionately large share of accident related deaths of 61%. Other Roads which constitute about 95 % of the total road length were responsible for the balance 39% deaths respectively

5- Over-speeding accounts for the maximum share of road accident and road accident deaths (ranging between 63% to 73% for accidents and between 62% to 70% for road accident deaths) on all the categories of National Highways and thus follows the trend seen on all India basis.

To be safe (as much as possible) 4+5 should be combined. Stick to speed limits on NH & SH, follow defensive driving and statistically chances of your being involved in an accident will drop significantly.

6 - The share of males in number of total accident deaths was 86% while the share of females hovered around 14% in 2019. This reflects both the number of male drivers (though we dont have official data on the number / % of female drivers) and IMO aggressive driving by men.

Historical Perspective -

While things seem very bleak at this moment, historical data puts this in an entirely different light. There has been a drastic reduction in accidents, fatalities and injuries starting 1970 on though the number of vehicles on the road has exploded. (how does one add tables? because only a table would make sense here)

Till I figure out how to add a table, some topline numbers,

1970 - Vehicle Density (VD) 1.18 (number of vehicles / km of road), Fatality Rate (FR) 103.5 (this is the number of fatal accidents per 10,000 pop)

1980 - VD 3.03, FR 53.1

1990 - VD 9.65, FR 28.3

2000 - VD 14.73, FR 16.2

While our vehicle density went up 4.5 X from 1980 to 2000, our FR dropped by 70%

2010 - VD 27.88, FR 10.5

2018 - VD 39.78, FR 6.2 (data for 2019 not available when this report was published)

From 2010-18, our VD went up by 42% but our FR dropped by 40%.

If these values are projected into the future, our accident and FR might just meet the Stockholm commitment of halving road accidents and fatalities by 2030.

Coming up in part 2 (later on the weekend, this will be a multi part series) would be vehicle wise accident and fatality rates. Let us see if the urban legends hold up or remain that, urban legends.

[RedTerrano]

Originally Posted by Stribog

4- National Highways & State Highways which account for about 5% of the total road length accounts for a disproportionately large share of accident related deaths of 61%. Other Roads which constitute about 95 % of the total road length were responsible for the balance 39% deaths respectively

5- Over-speeding accounts for the maximum share of road accident and road accident deaths (ranging between 63% to 73% for accidents and between 62% to 70% for road accident deaths) on all the categories of National Highways and thus follows the trend seen on all India basis.

I cannot help but wonder, how did the authorities arrive at the conclusion that over speeding caused accidents leading to death. How many speed traps or radar guns have been deployed on the highways? Is any data available for this?

How about non fatal accidents on the highways? How many caused due to lack of lane demarcation, lack or road signs, unpainted speed breakers, road blockages set up by local RTA (without proper signage or reflectors)? Any data available on this?

Also, is there any data available for German autobahns where there is no speed limit? How do those fatalities fare as compared to Indian highways?

[abhishek46]

Originally Posted by RedTerrano

I cannot help but wonder, how did the authorities arrive at the conclusion that over speeding caused accidents leading to death. How many speed traps or radar guns have been deployed on the highways? Is any data available for this?

Most likely source of this data are insurance claims, or police FIR reports.
Most of the times, the investigation done by Authorities, has to rely on accounts of passerby/tea shops nearby etc., which of course may not be accurate.

[GTO]

Mod Note: Thread moved to the Road Safety forum. Thanks for sharing!

[PearlJam]

Originally Posted by Stribog

There are many preconceived "notions" that many of us have on road accidents. A few I see often in many threads in this forum itself,

1 - 2 Wheelers are inherently unsafe
2 - The converse, cars are safer
...
...
Well, let us look at the numbers behind accidents in India.

Why do you think this is a preconceived notion? Rest of the things being the same, even a gentle hit to a two wheeler traveling at 30 KMPH could cause the rider to fall. Or, there could be a small oil patch on the road that causes the rider to skid and fall. They could get crushed by other vehicles. They could have head injuries if the helmet was improper. They could be affected by sudden winds. A car driver would most likely remain safe, even in a Maruti 800, in the same situation. This is just one example. I'm not even talking of any safety equipments.

You have given a few numbers that some show absolute numbers and a few percentages. This is no way "concludes" your points (1) and (2). For example, there are no numbers on 2 wheelers vs cars on our roads. There are no rough average numbers on the distances travelled (or time spent on the road) by 2 wheelers vs cars. There are no numbers on whether they drive/ride in the cities or on the highways. There are no numbers on the average speeds. There is no mention of day/night driving/riding. I see the numbers as meaningless and incomplete.

Am I missing something here?

Edit: I see you mentioned Coming up in part 2 (later on the weekend, this will be a multi part series) would be vehicle wise accident and fatality rates. Hope it covers some of the above points!

[Indian2003]

Originally Posted by RedTerrano

Also, is there any data available for German autobahns where there is no speed limit? How do those fatalities fare as compared to Indian highways?

Where did you get this from? German autobahns do have a general speed limit of 130 km/hour. Only a very few stretches have no speed limits. If I remember right, only 2 or 3.

In Germany you have to take a very strict driving test and driving is done on actual roads and traffic. The theoritical test is a set of 150 multiple choice questions. You must get 95% of these correct. Driving tests on the roads take 45 minutes and you dont need to make many mistakes to fail. You need to park on the side of the road in actual road conditions and reverse in.

[RedTerrano]

Originally Posted by Indian2003

Where did you get this from? German autobahns do have a general speed limit of 130 km/hour. Only a very few stretches have no speed limits. If I remember right, only 2 or 3.

70% of Germany's autobahn has no speed limit

https://www.statista.com/chart/16810...-no-roadworks/

[BlackPearl]

Originally Posted by Stribog

There are many preconceived "notions" that many of us have on road accidents. A few I see often in many threads in this forum itself,

1 - 2 Wheelers are inherently unsafe
2 - The converse, cars are safer
3- Trucks and buses are doombringers

It is not a preconceived notion that 2 wheelers are unsafe compared to cars, it is a fact that they are more unsafe than cars. Two wheelers are safer than cars only for other road users as they have lesser potential to cause fatal injury to others.

But there are certain situations where 2 wheelers are safer. It reminds me of a friend who used to ride a motorcycle in college. He used to get involved in frequent accidents. Once he broke his jaw as he was not wearing a full face helmet. His father had enough of it and bought him a car, a Maruti 800. Within a few months he had a fatal crash, head on with a truck that was coming from the wrong direction. At that time we had felt that he would have been better off with a 2 wheeler. Also, trucks and buses do have the potential to cause a lot more damage, hence they need to be driven more carefully than 2 wheelers and cars.

[Stribog]

Originally Posted by BlackPearl

It is not a preconceived notion that 2 wheelers are unsafe compared to cars, it is a fact that they are more unsafe than cars. Two wheelers are safer than cars only for other road users as they have lesser potential to cause fatal injury to others.

But there are certain situations where 2 wheelers are safer. It reminds me of a friend who used to ride a motorcycle in college. He used to get involved in frequent accidents. Once he broke his jaw as he was not wearing a full face helmet. His father had enough of it and bought him a car, a Maruti 800. Within a few months he had a fatal crash, head on with a truck that was coming from the wrong direction. At that time we had felt that he would have been better off with a 2 wheeler. Also, trucks and buses do have the potential to cause a lot more damage, hence they need to be driven more carefully than 2 wheelers and cars.

I would be covering this in my update on the weekend but on a per vehicle basis cars are the most unsafe mode of transport in India.

Per MOSPI Data - http://mospi.nic.in/statistical-year...india/2017/189

India has about 170 Mn two wheelers (data is as of 2016), the NSSO survey has updated numbers but I can't source the raw numbers only media reports and I don't trust them. There are 1,64,000 accidents involving 2 wheelers with 45,000 fatalities.

Otoh India has only about 40 Mn cars + jeeps, yet there are 1,13,000 accidents involving them with 31,000 fatalities.

In other words India has only about 1/4th the number of cars and jeeps as 2 wheelers but this segment produces 80% of the fatalities of 2 wheelers.

This too can't be seen in isolation - per the last NSSO survey / ICE 360 survey, the bulk of road trips are done on 2 wheelers, so if you normalise it to per km travelled, cars / jeeps are statistically the most unsafe option in India.

The enemy of 2 wheelers though is other 2 wheelers as the table on impacting vehicles has 60% of two wheeler accidents being caused by other 2 wheelers, while buses / HMV's are relatively the safest.



The data is very interesting to say the least. For instance the commonly held perception is night time is the most unsafe hour in general when data says that 0000 Hrs -0600 Hrs has the least accident rate. The time interval between 18:00 - 21:00 hrs (Night) recorded maximum number of
road accidents, accounting for 19.3 per cent of the total accidents in the country and this is in line with the pattern seen over the past five years. The second highest time interval of a day was between 15:00 - 18:00 hrs (Day) constituting 17.5 per cent of road accidents. As per the data, afternoon and evening times are the most dangerous times to be on the road.


The time interval of 0.00 hrs to 6:00 AM has the least number of accidents.

[Rohan265]

Originally Posted by Stribog

There are many preconceived "notions" that many of us have on road accidents. A few I see often in many threads in this forum itself,

1 - 2 Wheelers are inherently unsafe
2 - The converse, cars are safer
3- Trucks and buses are doombringers

And a lot more.

Well, let us look at the numbers behind accidents in India. Morbid yes but relevant also imo. MoRTH publishes data annually (like pretty much all central govt bureaus like say NCRB) which can be a treasure trove for those who like number crunching.

As someone working in the field I would take the MoRTH and NCRB data and its authenticity with a grain of salt. This is because I have seen how the data is collected at the grass-root level.

1. The data presented in the govt reports is a direct output of the data collected by the police at the local police stations. In an ideal world, the police are to carry a form to the crash site and note all the things they observe regarding the crash. These forms are then collated in a 17 table format and sent to the higher office (Police Commissioner/Superintendent of Police). The SP office sends it to the state's data centre and then it is shared with the centre. However, most cops in our country treat road crashes as a nuisance. They hardly put any effort to "investigate" a crash. No cop will ever carry the crash data form to the crash location. It would not have been that big of an issue either if the investigating officer filled the form when he came back to the station. In reality, the forms are never filled. At the end of the month, when the deadline nears to submit the 17 tables to the higher office, the officer directly fills the 17 table format in a similar manner to how an unprepared student answers the MCQ questions in an exam. In one city, we noticed that in fatal crashes between trucks and pedestrians, the fatalities were filled under trucks even when the pedestrian died. I remember once when I was at a police station, the person in charge of the form took my help to fill the 17 tables. He had no idea what half the things mentioned in the forms meant and this guy had been doing this for the past 2 years!. And this was in a Tier 2 city. The situation in the rural areas is much much worse...
2. The accident data presented by MoRTH is a representation of the cases that are reported to the police through an FIR with the respective IPC sections for accidents. However, cops at most police stations intimidate victims to prevent them from reporting crashes in the FIR as the cops don't want to go through the whole process of investigating the crash. The numbers that are presented are underreported by a huge margin. Personally, I even feel that the 2 lakh deaths per year that WHO estimates is also an understatement.

Originally Posted by Stribog

5- Over-speeding accounts for the maximum share of road accident and road accident deaths (ranging between 63% to 73% for accidents and between 62% to 70% for road accident deaths) on all the categories of National Highways and thus follows the trend seen on all India basis.

To be safe (as much as possible) 4+5 should be combined. Stick to speed limits on NH & SH, follow defensive driving and statistically chances of your being involved in an accident will drop significantly.

The reason for the high number of overspeeding crashes are the aforementioned cops. If possible, try reading an FIR summary of an accident case. No matter where you go in India, the cause of the accident remains constant ..."tez gati aur laparvai se takkar maar di" (it slightly as per the official language in the state).
Overspeeding is the go-to option for the cause of the accident as cops believe this makes the case iron-clad in court.
However, I completely agree with your second paragraph regarding sticking to the speed limits and defensive driving.

Originally Posted by Stribog

Historical Perspective -

While things seem very bleak at this moment, historical data puts this in an entirely different light. There has been a drastic reduction in accidents, fatalities and injuries starting 1970 on though the number of vehicles on the road has exploded. (how does one add tables? because only a table would make sense here)

Till I figure out how to add a table, some topline numbers,

1970 - Vehicle Density (VD) 1.18 (number of vehicles / km of road), Fatality Rate (FR) 103.5 (this is the number of fatal accidents per 10,000 pop)

1980 - VD 3.03, FR 53.1

1990 - VD 9.65, FR 28.3

2000 - VD 14.73, FR 16.2

While our vehicle density went up 4.5 X from 1980 to 2000, our FR dropped by 70%

2010 - VD 27.88, FR 10.5

2018 - VD 39.78, FR 6.2 (data for 2019 not available when this report was published)

From 2010-18, our VD went up by 42% but our FR dropped by 40%.

If these values are projected into the future, our accident and FR might just meet the Stockholm commitment of halving road accidents and fatalities by 2030.

Comparing vehicle density with the fatality rate is something that I have not seen yet and I am looking forward to seeing how you fit this in your overall study.
However, as far as I know, the Stockholm commitment talks about halving crashes as an absolute number. Not as a fatality rate. To achieve that we have to bring down the fatalities below 1 lakh. That is a tough ask if we do not improve our data collection.

Originally Posted by Stribog

Coming up in part 2 (later on the weekend, this will be a multi part series) would be vehicle wise accident and fatality rates. Let us see if the urban legends hold up or remain that, urban legends.

Looking forward to the multi-part series.

P.S: My intention was never to bad-mouth the cops. After working with them all these years, I understand why they do this. It's the whole system that's broken. Cops are over-burdened with so many things that they simply do not have time to look at crashes in detail. Similar to the other countries, we need dedicated crash investigation teams in the police. This will result in much better data that can actually be analysed. And without proper crash investigation data, we are going to come up with half-baked solutions such as standardizing 6 airbags (there is no way our government has the data to say that 6 airbags will reduce more fatalities than 2). Without going for data-backed solutions, the only way we are going to reduce fatalities is by fudging the fatality numbers...

[landcruiser123]

Thanks for sharing @Striborg. These are some great stats.

Originally Posted by Stribog

There are many preconceived "notions" that many of us have on road accidents. A few I see often in many threads in this forum itself,

1 - 2 Wheelers are inherently unsafe
2 - The converse, cars are safer

1 & 2 have some truth, especially in case of minor accidents. I've had many friends go hit potholes while riding their two wheelers (at 40 km/h) and get into serious injuries. at worst, regular potholes will damage your car tires, wheels, and suspension setup.

Also, my motorcycle training course in CA said that, in a collision, riders are 40 times more likely to get severely injured compared to drivers.

5- Over-speeding accounts for the maximum share of road accident and road accident deaths

With many miles of freeway driving in the USA, I can say that (undivided) highways with intersections (most of the National & State highways in India) are the most dangerous.

While I don't encourage over speeding, doing 20 km/h above the limit on a freeway/motorway/expressway is far less dangerous than doing 20km/h above the limit in regular highways with intersections and cross-traffic.

[IshaanIan]

Originally Posted by Rohan265

As someone working in the field I would take the MoRTH and NCRB data and its authenticity with a grain of salt. This is because I have seen how the data is collected at the grass-root level.

we need dedicated crash investigation teams in the police. This will result in much better data that can actually be analysed. And without proper crash investigation data, we are going to come up with half-baked solutions such as standardizing 6 airbags (there is no way our government has the data to say that 6 airbags will reduce more fatalities than 2). Without going for data-backed solutions, the only way we are going to reduce fatalities is by fudging the fatality numbers...

Finally the man has spoken I have been waiting for your inputs on this sir. I agree with everything you have said. People tend to tint statistics with their views and often times if one were to delve into how those statistics are gathered and what in actuality, they define, they would find that their views and the statistics don't stick. Speeding is unfortunately the first thing that people in India complain of when they see an accident.

[giri1.8]

Difference in fatalities between cars and motorcycles is indeed interesting, but is there any data on number of non-fatal injuries and permanently disability as a result of accidents? I am sure Motorcycles will top the list.

Not denying any facts here, but would love to know all the details in detail.

Edit :

6 - The share of males in number of total accident deaths was 86% while the share of females hovered around 14% in 2019. This reflects both the number of male drivers (though we dont have official data on the number / % of female drivers) and IMO aggressive driving by men.

I hardly see women driving on the highway, where most of the accidents happen according to the above statistics, almost all heavy vehicles and non-private motor vehicles are driven by men, men also clock more miles than their female counterpart, yet to see a girl who has driven her car more than a Lakh kilometres. it's funny to see such statements against men.

[VeluM]

Originally Posted by Stribog

For instance the commonly held perception is night time is the most unsafe hour in general when data says that 0000 Hrs -0600 Hrs has the least accident rate.

The time interval of 0.00 hrs to 6:00 AM has the least number of accidents.

This is an example of statistics showing whatever one wants to see. There are far fewer cars/vehicles on the road at that time of the night, so fewer accidents doesn’t mean it is safer.

Originally Posted by giri1.8

I hardly see women driving on the highway, where most of the accidents happen according to the above statistics, almost all heavy vehicles and non-private motor vehicles are driven by men, men also clock more miles than their female counterpart, yet to see a girl who has driven her car more than a Lakh kilometres. it's funny to see such statements against men.

This could be debated in the Indian context where most drivers (male or female) are taught the mechanics of driving with no consideration to the rules or courtesies.

However women are safer drivers, as supported by data from several other countries including the UK and US where obtaining a drivers license requires a thorough knowledge of the law.

This is limited to safety, and not skill. Women are more likely to follow the rules if they know them, and less likely to get into road rage incidents.

[spgv]

The fact that speed kills, is made escape goat almost in all accident cases except a few cases where the cause of accident other wise is blatantly visible. Just read local news papers and the disparity in cops version and the local "patrakars" version is clear.

Personally i can confirm the existence of bad roads, turns, un scientifically designed/constructed roads(so called haunted patches in local heresay. Its always better to be careful while driving in these sections of road). I have visited a few such spots, patches. Not especially but on my way, and observed existence of design/construction issue or un authorized/unscientific entry exits, banking
, the way monsoon transforms the road behaviour, other observable odds.
Point is, roads are responsible for accidents too. At some occasions by creating a hazard or by not forgiving a driver error etc.

Over years i observed authorities putting up boards in some of the killer bends/patches to alert drivers with "Durghatna janye khsetra". Authorities do take up, however its usually after several cases and bad press. It seems there is no mechanism to find and root out such flaws.

I agree here, there should be dedicated investigating department within the existing bureaucracy or a separate one to investigate the cause of accident.